It is sometimes difficult to remain objective when it comes to market analysis. The more we look at charts, the more bearish we become. This might not be the right outlook as it could just be various forms of biases that we are unable to overcome. The primary objective of any investor or trader is to remain objective and see things for what they are, not as what we would like for them to be.
It feels as if we are on the edge of battle. The air is still and so thick with tension that it is hard to breathe in. Nonetheless, the market goes on. In fact, it is starting to offer some interesting opportunities to those who are patient. We look at the S&P500, USDZAR, Clicks, Shoprite, Sibanye and Anglo American.
The last few weeks have been some of the most extreme times in recent market history, at least from our perspective. We’ve seen a pretty extreme sell off, largely driven by fears around the coronavirus. What is of even more concern to us is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 50 bps in an emergency rate cut. Historically, when the FED responds this drastically it is usually a sure sign that something big is happening.
We’ve had continued issues around Load Shedding and various other economic ailments, and thus our Rand has weakened somewhat. This weaker Rand narrative is what we think is likely to drive our market in the coming week.
Welcome back load shedding. And also welcome back war in the Middle East. The combined impact of these two factors will likely make it a very difficult week for the Rand.
So this week is a little weird. There are some bullish looking setups emerging on some of the banks, although they are in the middle of nowhere in terms of large trading ranges.
The trade war cycle turned negatively once more last week and with US GDP data due out on Wednesday this week, it may just become apparent how hard this trade war is biting. We cannot predict what the data is going to be like, although we think it is safe to assume that things are …