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Focus on the charts

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The last two weeks have been tough. In all honesty, the reason this blog post is only being posted now is because I found it difficult to not express an opinion on the current happenings in our country. It is deeply concerning. I must have written and rewritten this first paragraph at least ten times. It just feels disingenuous to write up a blog post that optimistically looks for opportunities, while our cities are burning. So with a heavy heart, I have to force myself to clear my mind of the anxiety and noise and focus on the charts.

Be patient and hold the longs

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We have to admit that today’s post was difficult to write. It is hard to focus on opportunities in the week ahead while our country appears to be… well, having a really rough time. We often say that we must filter out the noise and focus only on those things that can accurately analyse (aka. the chart), so that is exactly what we are going to do. Besides, the world’s financial markets are looking fairly good and we’ve positioned well for strength in the offshore portfolio’s. The only thing to do now really is to be patient and hold our positions.

Buy the dip

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The second half of last week got really wild, really fast. Given the fact that hardly anything has changed – in the sense that there are no interest rate hikes on the table for at least another year and a half, and that the FED will continue to buy $120bn worth of bonds every month – we think that the market might have had a bit of a strong ‘knee-jerk’ reaction to the FOMC minutes. Thus, we say buy the dip. As long as the free money keeps flowing, it will be difficult for the market to sustain downside.

Follow the trend

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Sometimes we just need to be patient and follow the trend. We often get so caught up in the short-term news flow and happenings of the market that we lose focus of the bigger picture. Right now markets are trending higher, so our job is simply to look for opportunities to get on the bus.

It’s time to buy Bitcoin

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Our view has been that one should treat cryptocurrencies much like you would treat any normal individual stock in your portfolio. With the recent rout in cryptocurrencies, we think that it’s time to buy bitcoin. There are many loud voices out there right now (let’s call them paper hands) that are ranting on about how bitcoin is dead… ignore them. Treat it like a normal stock, don’t take massive (or geared) exposure and don’t bother about the opinions of the paper hands. It’s time to buy bitcoin.

Twitter chart requests

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Well then, alright. This week we’re doing things a little differently. @TraderPetri asked twitter what they wanted us to have a look at and we’ve obliged. In no particular order, here are the twitter chart requests for the week ahead.

Can’t stop a good thing

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Well then, that’ll teach us to think that markets can actually come down from time time! Jokes aside, the bearish setups from last week have all be nullified and a fresh set of breakouts have taken place. Guess when it comes to equity market rallies, you really can’t stop a good thing. We’re not entirely convinced from a long-term perspective, but for the short-term traders… well, the job is to follow the market. So if you can’t stop a good thing, you might as well join in the fun.

Sell in May and go away

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The age old adage of “Sell in May and go away”… Well, it’s May. What now?

Ironically, the bullish breakouts that took place last week, for the most part, seem to be failing. Perhaps “Sell in May and go away” is rooted in more than just seasonality and superstition? Either way, charts are looking a lot less bullish than they did over the last three or so weeks.

Trend following for the win!

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Very often we overcomplicate things for ourselves. The easy truth is that trend following it often the best way to interact with markets. Since the trend is currently very firmly up, we’re happy to toe the trend following line for as long as the trend stays in tact.

Patience is key to opportunism

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We’ve said a few time in the past that patience is key. The main benefit of being patient when it comes to trading is that we can wait for the really good setups to mature and then take trades in which the odds are firmly skewed in our favour. Some of the stocks we’ve been watching for a long time have finally triggered buy signals.

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HERENYA CAPITAL ADVISORS (PTY) LTD is an authorised financial services provider (FSP number 47080) in terms of Section 8 of the FAIS Act. A copy of our license certificate is available on request. Our physical address is 1st Floor, Block C, Eagle Canyon Office Park, Randpark Ridge, 2154. We can be contacted via email by emailing info@herenya.co.za. Please note that there are risks involved when buying or selling any financial product, and past performance of a financial product is not necessarily indicative of the future performance. The value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Copyright © 2020 Herenya Capital Advisors (PTY) LTD

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