Market Overview

The following is a partial recap of the market analysis shared during today’s morning Discord call.

We open the day to a market rally in commodities and equities, following the cancellation of planned strikes over the weekend. Oil is the main loser today as it dropped by 6%, while gold and PGMs (Platinum Group Metals) show signs of a short-term bounce, which, in conjunction with Tencent’s (700) performance, helps create a risk-on sentiment for this morning session. However, we still recommend caution, as the market rally is behind cancelled strikes, rumoured to be due to a munitions shortage, rather than substantial progress towards peace. At the same time, Hormuz remains closed and further escalations are still on the table.

Gold

Our belief remains that gold needs to break $4200 to see proper movement to the upside. But looking at the charts, we believe that a short-term bounce is a very real possibility, which makes gold and gold miners an investment opportunity to keep an eye on, for those interested. As far as miners go, Harmony (HAR) had a standout performance last week, with significant pumps on Wednesday and Friday that were somewhat unexpected. We speculate that if it’s able to break the R280 level, we could see a retest of R290-300.

From left to right: Gold, gold shares, and Harmony Gold (HAR).

Local Stocks

Valterra (VAL)

The PGMs are expected to move up this morning, supported by weakness in the dollar and strength in commodities. We see Valterra as the most attractive option, with R1160 as the level to break before retesting R1200.

Aspen (NPN)

Aspen received the go-ahead on the development and production of a potentially world’s first oral anti-HIV pill. But with last week’s reports of supply chain issues, and Friday’s downgrade, we see the stock as something to keep an eye on until it finds support.

Real Estate

Standard Bank came out with a trio of changes in the real estate sector today. Redefine Properties (RDF) was raised to buy, while NEPI Rockcastle (NRP) and SA Corporate Real Estate (SAC) were cut to hold.

From left to right: Redefine Properties (RDF), NEPI Rockcastle (NRP), and SA Corporate Real Estate (SAC).

Economic Data

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