The second half of last week got really wild, really fast. Given the fact that hardly anything has changed – in the sense that there are no interest rate hikes on the table for at least another year and a half, and that the FED will continue to buy $120bn worth of bonds every month – we think that the market might have had a bit of a strong ‘knee-jerk’ reaction to the FOMC minutes. Thus, we say buy the dip. As long as the free money keeps flowing, it will be difficult for the market to sustain downside.
Well then, alright. This week we’re doing things a little differently. @TraderPetri asked twitter what they wanted us to have a look at and we’ve obliged. In no particular order, here are the twitter chart requests for the week ahead.
The fast paced world out there always tries to get us to take action immediately. There is a sense of urgency that is ever pressing. You have to buy this useless trinked right now! You have to act now to make money on the stock market! Cryptocurrencies are exploding and you must act immediately lest you want to ‘enjoy staying poor’. This is all garbage. The reality is that there is a lot of patience needed if you want to make any sustainable, long-term progress. The same is true with trading. The patience needed to wait for the right trades, at the right levels is something that almost never talked about. So although there are a few decent setups this week, there are a few markets on which we have to respect the patience needed and wait for a more clear setup.
The exuberance of markets can never be underestimated. “Stonks only go up” has become a meme. But we know that memes have the power to influence millions of people. As long as the market is trading from vaccine headline to vaccine headline, we can expect that markets will probably keep pushing higher and people will likely keep chanting “stonks only go up”.
It seems that there are a ton of people out there trading the oil price in some way or another. Most people of course have either been getting involved with Sasol or have been thinking about it. We’ve received a ton of requests from all over, from people asking about the oil price and particularly about Sasol.
We suspect that over the next few weeks and months, mainstream media is going to get swept up in the ‘all about Bitcoin’ narrative. More importantly, Thanksgiving sets off a number of seasonal patterns as well. We need to combine several of them for one trade.
Finally the US election is behind us! We’ll still see how far Trump goes to contest the election outcome, but so far it seems the the courts are not entertaining the idea. So ok, Biden wins, what now? It is reasonable to expect that more COVID related stimulus will done and the Dollar should keep weakening on that. This likely leads to more ZAR strength and might direct some investment flows into emerging markets.
Thinking about the week ahead and the craziness that is about to unfold with the US elections, my initial thought was that there would not be too much to do. In fact, I’d been planning to basically just put out a warning about this week and recommending that we just keep it small and keep it tight. To a large extent that is still what I am doing, because it’s going to be wild out there. That said, there are some charts and ideas floating around inside the HCA trading community that are worth sharing. Just keep those stops tight and the trades small. The money is made by being around long enough to capitalise when it’s easy, and allowing the market trends to do the work.
Generally markets are feeling fairly good going into next week and the weekly game plan is centered around buying some pullbacks in the banks and avoiding long positions in resources and precious metals. We have been seeing good old fashioned sector rotation locally, with funds flowing into banks and retailers and seemingly local property as well. This is likely being driven by investors looking for value, of which there is much to be found among the ‘locals’.
Overall markets are feeling a little ‘in the middle of nowhere’ at this stage and thus our weekly game plan is to mostly be patient and wait for better setups. We look at some of the major U.S. indices and note that there are no really good setups to be had at this stage, although Gold, Sliver and Oil might be setting up for some decent trades. On the local front, we’re probably complaining too loudly about low volumes, but there seems to be a select few good setups.