International outlook

Brrrrrr! Christmas is coming!

2020 was wild. In fact, it was a good lesson in accepting the true unpredictability of not only markets, but the world itself. It also further cemented one cardinal truth… you can’t fight the Fed. Especially when good ol Jerome has a Santa hat on and is shouting “Brrrrrr! Christmas is coming!”.

It’s been a while since we’ve put out some US trade ideas. Don’t chase them and make sure you stick to the stop losses.

Avoiding the US election

The election is just one week away and we recommend staying light into the election and making decisions post-election results, even if we have to pay up a bit in case of good news, or just stay on the sides in the case of bad news. There is no edge in trying to figure out an election result for a trader.

Trade ideas: Gold and silver

Gold and silver have been the talk of the town amongst most professional investors in recent months. With the Fed printing the dollar into oblivion, gold caught a decent bid and became massively overbought, along with its cheaper brother silver. Gold and silver sentiment became extreme and as you know, when the hysteria hits the market, it’s normally the end of the bull run. We have now had a decent retracement and believe that we can start looking at gold shares again for a bounce.

U.S. commentary

So, in the depths of the COVID gloom there was talk of a depression and stocks dropping another 50% from the lows. There was absolute conviction that you should not be buying. Now, after one of the most insane V-shaped recoveries we have ever seen, most analysts tell you to buy Apple, Tesla and anything tech-related as we have entered a new type of world. And yes, a V-shaped recovery… as most analysts say it isn’t happening, but it’s a clear V – as you see in the chart of the Nasdaq. Anyway, the consensus has swung from “don’t buy” when it was low to “buy everything” here and now? We disagree. We think it’s time to go risk-off.

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