ABG

The bull is strong yet!

We saw some fear and panic… for about a whole week. Well, in truth, the institutional money didn’t even flinch. The market bounced hard. The Evergrande situation unfolding in China is still rather risky, although it seems that the CCP are doing a rather good job at a ‘controlled demolition’. They might be making an example of Evergrande in an effort to cool off property speculation in general. There have also been some large repurchase agreement (repo) activity over the weekend, which is indicative of monetary stimulus measures to prevent contagion into other sectors. For now it seems, with some help from central banks (as usual), that the bull is strong yet!

Mixed signals

As anticipated, the FOMC made no changes to interest rates last week and are unlikely to make any real moves without very clearly communicating it to the market. Our focus now shifts to the Jackson Hole symposium to be held near the end of the month. We think that Jerome Powell will likely use Jackson Hole as the platform on which to start communicating tapering warnings to the market. At some point the FED must admit that the printing is creating inflation. Although it will likely not do so directly, we can watch the language use around the topic. It was interesting to note that Powell essentially admitted that he does not know ‘where’ inflation is coming from. He also stated that inflation is likely to stay around longer than initially anticipated.

Focus on the charts

The last two weeks have been tough. In all honesty, the reason this blog post is only being posted now is because I found it difficult to not express an opinion on the current happenings in our country. It is deeply concerning. I must have written and rewritten this first paragraph at least ten times. It just feels disingenuous to write up a blog post that optimistically looks for opportunities, while our cities are burning. So with a heavy heart, I have to force myself to clear my mind of the anxiety and noise and focus on the charts.

Trend following for the win!

We are all guilty of overcomplicating trading. Often we have to remind ourselves that most of the work is done by the market and that trend following is often the easiest way to interact with markets. This week we look at a few of the better trend following ideas we have for the week ahead.

Sell in May and go away

The age old adage of “Sell in May and go away”… Well, it’s May. What now?

Ironically, the bullish breakouts that took place last week, for the most part, seem to be failing. Perhaps “Sell in May and go away” is rooted in more than just seasonality and superstition? Either way, charts are looking a lot less bullish than they did over the last three or so weeks.

Patience is key to opportunism

We’ve said a few time in the past that patience is key. The main benefit of being patient when it comes to trading is that we can wait for the really good setups to mature and then take trades in which the odds are firmly skewed in our favour. Some of the stocks we’ve been watching for a long time have finally triggered buy signals.

The trend is strong with this one

The U.S. market is closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day, which means that our market will likely be rather quiet at the start of the week. Overall though, the bullish trend is strong and has been for some time. I rang some alarm bells last week, although it seems that I was wrong. This doesn’t mean that we should all rush out and put on a thousand new long positions. Patience, caution, always.

2021 roadmap for Bitcoin

The week that lies ahead though is usually the ‘Santa rally’ week, so perhaps our caution and maybe even slight bearishness might again be off the mark. Nonetheless there are some good trading setups out there. Furthermore, we thought that this week we would share our 2021 roadmap for Bitcoin. Next year, we think, is going to be wild!

Santa loves US Fed stimulus

Well, technically the Santa rally is only really the period between Christmas and New Years, although traders have been ‘front running’ this seasonality a little over the last few years. Furthermore, from what we’ve seen on the newswires over the weekend, it seems that another round US Fed stimulus is almost certainly going to be finalised before US markets open on Monday. Nothing like a freshly minted $900 billion to get markets into the festive mood.

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