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Santa loves US Fed stimulus

Leave a Comment / Weekly game plan /

Well, technically the Santa rally is only really the period between Christmas and New Years, although traders have been ‘front running’ this seasonality a little over the last few years. Furthermore, from what we’ve seen on the newswires over the weekend, it seems that another round US Fed stimulus is almost certainly going to be finalised before US markets open on Monday. Nothing like a freshly minted $900 billion to get markets into the festive mood.

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Stonks only go up

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The exuberance of markets can never be underestimated. “Stonks only go up” has become a meme. But we know that memes have the power to influence millions of people. As long as the market is trading from vaccine headline to vaccine headline, we can expect that markets will probably keep pushing higher and people will likely keep chanting “stonks only go up”.

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Opportunities in Gold miners

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Last week, after a strong start to the week, we saw the moves fade and the rest of the week resolve in directionless action on the major indices. Locally our banks popped well, although started pulling back a little in the second half of the week. For the coming week, we see opportunities in Gold miners for high risk-reward long positions at the start of the week. With some luck we’ll see decent pullbacks in the banks for good long setups in the second half of the week.

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Biden wins! What now?

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Finally the US election is behind us! We’ll still see how far Trump goes to contest the election outcome, but so far it seems the the courts are not entertaining the idea. So ok, Biden wins, what now? It is reasonable to expect that more COVID related stimulus will done and the Dollar should keep weakening on that. This likely leads to more ZAR strength and might direct some investment flows into emerging markets.

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Weekly game plan 1 November 2020

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Thinking about the week ahead and the craziness that is about to unfold with the US elections, my initial thought was that there would not be too much to do. In fact, I’d been planning to basically just put out a warning about this week and recommending that we just keep it small and keep it tight. To a large extent that is still what I am doing, because it’s going to be wild out there. That said, there are some charts and ideas floating around inside the HCA trading community that are worth sharing. Just keep those stops tight and the trades small. The money is made by being around long enough to capitalise when it’s easy, and allowing the market trends to do the work.

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Weekly game plan 25 October 2020

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Generally markets are feeling fairly good going into next week and the weekly game plan is centered around buying some pullbacks in the banks and avoiding long positions in resources and precious metals. We have been seeing good old fashioned sector rotation locally, with funds flowing into banks and retailers and seemingly local property as well. This is likely being driven by investors looking for value, of which there is much to be found among the ‘locals’.

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Weekly game plan 18 October 2020

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Overall markets are feeling a little ‘in the middle of nowhere’ at this stage and thus our weekly game plan is to mostly be patient and wait for better setups. We look at some of the major U.S. indices and note that there are no really good setups to be had at this stage, although Gold, Sliver and Oil might be setting up for some decent trades. On the local front, we’re probably complaining too loudly about low volumes, but there seems to be a select few good setups.

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