It’s been a good few weeks since we last posted a set of trading ideas for the week ahead. Our sincerest apologies, we know some of you look forward to our weekly game plans and we truly appreciate the emails we’ve received from you guys asking for a new post. So here it is! Nothing fancy, just a good old fashioned weekly game plan. And off the bat, we think it’s time to wobble for financial markets.

Now, yes, we did say this a few weeks ago and the market has remained persistently strong. Relatively at least… U.S. markets are slightly higher, but locally markets are slightly lower. So, no real fireworks just yet. Perhaps the momentum finally shifts down, and we see the market come off a little? Particularly in the over-hyped tech sector. Let’s look at some charts and get a better idea of why we’re thinking what we’re thinking.

*Also, please just note that as usual, the offshore indices we chart are in fact ETFs of those indices as those are tradeable. If you are not trading offshore for only $2 a trade, click on that open account button. Top right. You got it. Ok, time for charts.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

This is ironically one of the charts that is not so clear to us right now. The levels marked in yellow are our up and downside targets. We think down before up and it should be noted that if $418.31 doesn’t hold, we could see this push to $400. Also, that does look like a double top, does it not?

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ is a lot more clear to us than SPY. Once again we see the double top, but this time it is in fact directly below the resistance level we pointed out a few months ago. It feels like this bullish move has now run its course and it’s time to wobble a little. Our thinking is that we will likely see QQQ come off to test the previous significant horizontal level (also marked in yellow) at $333.57.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX found some resistance at the top of the channel. Momentum is shifting toward the downside, and if you squint just right you might see a little head and shoulders pattern. Look out below! Time to wobble.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Friday came along and said woah! It looks like that support at $101.30 is going to be tested once more. The question we are asking ourselves is ‘are we forming a base here or are we forming a flat?’. In other words, does $101.30 hold and this is the long-drawn-out starting phase of another bullish move over the next few months/years? Or, does the support break on the third attempt and we see the Dollar weaken substantially going forward? Time will tell. Time to wobble.

Brent Crude Oil

We could probably pose the question as above (with DXY) here on Brent. The way we see it is that Brent has been bouncing between the bottom and the mid-point of the range for a few months now. We’d like to see it break above $79 and head for $87. The start look aligned here. We’ll look at a Sasol long as well.

USDZAR

Time to wobble? But its so wobbly already! That’s a volatility joke by the way. This chart is, well, maybe we need new ideas and perspectives here. To us, this looks like a monster bear flag… but it could also go to R19.50. Let us know what you think on Twitter.

Platinum

Platinum might have gone a little far on the downside here and from our perspective it looks like it is going to try put in a little bounce here.

Gold

Gold is looking fairly bullish right now as well. At least, it looks like a decent bullish setup complete with a bearish equity market view to back the risk-off idea. Let’s see if it can get going.

Apple (AAPL)

This trend looks a little long in the tooth. We’ve marked out our trailing stop for AAPL longs. A daily close below $188.92 will stop us out of a position that has done really well. It is worth noting that when it is time to wobble for these giant tech stocks, the rest of the market will surely follow. The majority of the Nasdaq Index and a big chunk of the S&P 500 Index are in just a handful of stocks that are all highly correlated. Once the tech giants begin to wobble a little, the straw house that is the U.S. stock market at the moment is likely to be blow over.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

As a way of example, looking at AMAT, we see that our trailing stop has already been triggered. Now, AMAT is not as exciting as AAPL or TSLA or NVDIA or (insert any A.I. stock in here), but AMAT is a large supplier to many of these companies. Semiconductors have to be made somehow, right? AMAT might be the canary in the coal mine here.

Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFT is also teetering on the edge here. A daily close below $332.81 will trigger the trailing stop loss. As is the case with the illustrated trailing stop losses above, these could act as short entries for the more active traders. Just be warned, you’re betting against the trend, so keep tight stops.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Well, well, well, if it isn’t the good old ALSI heading for the longer-term trendline? At least that’s our view. Buckle up, it’s time to wobble.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

It’s not often that you see such a beautiful break and retest of an established trendline. Textbook short setup here.

Naspers (NPN)

Going nowhere slowly… but, keep it on the watchlist as you can trade it between the levels, and when eventually this range breaks, it will do so in glorious fashion!

Shoprite (SHP)

Retailers have done alright recently. SHP underperformed a little over the last few days of last week though. It also looks to us like it wants to go test R192. It’s time to wobble, hold onto your stops!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL has bounced off this level once before… and then came back and slammed right back into it. With the Brent Crude Oil context above, and with this level actually holding fairly resiliently, we think that it makes a great long trade from here. Easy tight stop and a potentially a huge amount of upside.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

If you have been keeping an eye on energy demand forecasts, weather and other going-ns in the energy space in Europe, you will note that there is a slight shortage of the burny black stuff (coal) brewing. This once again plays into TGA hands. Combine that with a falling wedge, very recent higher lows, and you get what looks like a really good long setup for a medium to longer-term trade.

Anglo American (AGL)

Bullish divergence off a significant horizontal support level. Bodes bullish to us.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

So the trendline broke and the head and shoulders worked out perfectly and the trendline is now being tested. Ok then. Given our thoughts on Gold (and Platinum) above, ANG might be presenting a nice long trade opportunity for those who are willing to take a little risk.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.