International outlook

Be greedy when others are fearful

Let’s get to the point: what’s happening is totally unprecedented… the market has gone up or down more than 4% for 7 consecutive days. That’s a new record. The previous record was 1929. There are a whole number of stats like this that are unprecedented. Below are stats of this week… craziest moves we’ve ever seen.

Trade idea: SPY

We know that it is a difficult time to buy stocks bearish news and frankly, chaos reigning in markets. However, the market is showing signs of heavy capitulation. We won’t go into all the stats that are showing signs of extremes, but there might be an against the trend trade opportunity here with a high risk:reward profile.

Trade idea: TLT

TLT is a defensive ETF as it effectively captures the far end of the Treasury curve in a liquid, exchange traded package. Exclusively holding bonds with 20+ years to maturity, TLT is – by design – very sensitive to long-term interest-rate movements. It seems to us that TLT has gone into what we describe as a parabolic blow off top. The most obvious reason for this would be because TLT, as a bond ETF, is viewed as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. Corona-times are pretty uncertain times we would say. Hence the run to safety.

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