It’s the 4th of July on Monday and the day that the US celebrates independence day! Which means two things… the US markets are closed (and it will be a bit of a rudderless day for us on Monday) and that we can probably show you the most accurate picture of how markets have been trading so far this year.
The market has been really difficult these past few months. Well, to be honest, these past few years. It seems though that finally the retail army has been filled with fear and we saw retail flows sell en masse last week (the week before we saw institutional selling) while institutions started buying again. Although this by itself is not a reliable indicator on which to take action, it does show that ‘the smart money’ is starting to nibble at equities again. There is also around $33bln worth of US equity buying to do before the end of the quarter in order for pensions funds to rebalance and remain withing legislated asset allocations. Add quarter end and the ‘window dressing’ phenomenon and you the makings of a bull potion. Bigger picture wise, there is no real change and the world economy still looks very much in trouble, but in the short-term, Friday’s bounce might have legs for another few days.
Wowzers! What a week that was. I’ll keep the post brief this week as there really isn’t much in the way of positivity on my radar, so the overall message is really just trade small, be careful, stick to stop losses or maybe just take the next few weeks off. Don’t be a hero in this market. So many people are trying to catch the bounce and ‘use this volatility to make the big bucks’, but trust me, for every 10 that enter, 1 will leave. So best stay out of the market until the culling is over. That said, many charts are in the weekly timeframe this week as some longer-term perspective is often helpful.
The markets got smashed last week and even managed to close the US session on the lows. Strangely, sentiment is not at an extreme and it seems that through all of this, retail investors and traders have been net buyers. To us, this sounds like more pain is on the way. So without too much pontification, let’s look at some charts and see what we can find (other than ‘look out below!’ signs nailed to pretty much everything).
It’s been a good while since we lasted posted a weekly game plan and we thought that the time had come to wipe the dust off our blog and get to sharing the weekly game plan again. On that note, the last time we posted we indicated that we preferred to stay on the side-lines, but now we find ourselves asking if it is still a time to be careful, or not time to get back into the market?
Still a time to be careful Read More
inflation narrative circulating at the moment, as well as the key indicators kind of being on a knifes edge and giving mixed signals… it is probably wise to say on the side-lines for now.
I have been rather vocal over the last few years on what my price target was for Bitcoin in December 2021. As some regular readers might remember, I had called for a price of $200k (yes, two hundred thousand Dollar) per Bitcoin. Clearly, I got that one wrong. It was a forecast made in 2018 and one that got rather close to being perfect, even though it was ultimately wrong. Let’s look at how I got Bitcoin wrong.
How I got Bitcoin wrong Read More
months! It has not retraced this much, and this fast since the infamous COVID-crash. The question is; is this just a tantrum, or a trend change? To be fair, a case can be made for both and honestly right now I think (at least for me) it is too early to tell.
Just a tantrum, or a trend change? Read More
Admittedly it is not an easy task to produce a set of market expectations for 2022, but lets look at some factors that might drive markets
Market expectations for 2022 Read More
Two weeks ago in our last post, we proposed that buying into the sell-off and VIX spike would make for a good long entry, both on equities (offshore) as well as on Oil. That play worked very well and markets are bouncing back rather hard. From here we think it is most probable that the market (U.S.) goes on to make a new all-time high. We do harbour some concerns around market breadth, especially within the Nasdaq index (US100), but even so we believe that over the short-term (until the end of the year), it is most likely that markets will remain bullish and push a few new highs.
Remain bullish and push a few new highs Read More
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