First and foremost, we want to encourage everyone reading this to take social distancing seriously. As for trading; for now we are being very, very careful. Most of last week we hardly traded any swing-CFD positions and we expect that it will be the same in the coming week. We will not entirely sit out the week, but we will be very selective with our trades. Risk management is absolute.
Weekly game plan 22 March 2020 Read More
Let’s get to the point: what’s happening is totally unprecedented… the market has gone up or down more than 4% for 7 consecutive days. That’s a new record. The previous record was 1929. There are a whole number of stats like this that are unprecedented. Below are stats of this week… craziest moves we’ve ever seen.
Be greedy when others are fearful Read More
We’re not sure where to start. We have ever seen anything like what has been happening over the last three weeks before. These truly are extraordinary times.The Fear & Greed Index hit 1 last week, the CBOE Volatility Index hit highs last seen in 1987 and 2008 with the highest print at 77.6. This was real, unfiltered panic. The question now is; is it over?
Weekly game plan 15 March 2020 Read More
We know that it is a difficult time to buy stocks bearish news and frankly, chaos reigning in markets. However, the market is showing signs of heavy capitulation. We won’t go into all the stats that are showing signs of extremes, but there might be an against the trend trade opportunity here with a high risk:reward profile.
The last few weeks have been some of the most extreme times in recent market history, at least from our perspective. We’ve seen a pretty extreme sell off, largely driven by fears around the coronavirus. What is of even more concern to us is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 50 bps in an emergency rate cut. Historically, when the FED responds this drastically it is usually a sure sign that something big is happening.
Weekly game plan 8 March 2020 Read More
We also saw that Chinese PMI numbers came in the lowest on record. In other words, lower manufacturing and production activity in China than even in the depths of the 2008/9 financial crisis. Lower than ever recorded. Considering that China now makes up almost 20% of the global economy and accounts for two-thirds of global growth, this record low PMI reading is truly concerning. The real question now is, when do factories come back online?
Weekly game plan 1 March 2020 Read More
It is starting to feel a little like the roll-over we were on the lookout for in U.S. markets last week is beginning to happen. Gold is pushing a lot higher on the back of growing coronavirus concerns as Italy enters the early stages of lock-down due to the virus spreading within its borders rapidly. We’ve seen videos of scores of people queuing outside banks in China and rumours of Chinese banks not having liquidity for withdrawals. The situation is getting worse.
Weekly game plan 23 February 2020 Read More
It just feels like the entire world is actively choosing to not believe that anything really bad is happening there. We’ve put a lot of thought into what our view needs to be on this topic and it is our feeling that we would rather be “the boy who cried wolf”, and thus make a few errors in an attempt to be extra-careful, before we join the rest of the crowd and just pretend that nothing is wrong.
Weekly game plan 16 February 2020 Read More
There is a lot that happened this past weekend! Brexit actually took place… the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the Coronavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Our expectation is that we will see heavy losses in Commodities and Commodities stocks, specially industrial metals.
Weekly game plan 2 February 2020 Read More
The news this past weekend has been dominated by the Coronavirus. It seems that the rate of infection is accelerating and that it is managing to reach other countries, with both Japan and Australia confirming cases of infection. Markets might react poorly.
Weekly game plan 26 January 2020 Read More
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