Ok, ok, spring just started here in South Africa… but in the northern hemisphere winter is fast approaching and looking at all the charts, economic indicators and just general happenings in the conflict with Russia… let’s just say that things are looking pretty dire. Welcome to winter northern hemisphere, I hope you are ready for a cold one.
The market has been really difficult these past few months. Well, to be honest, these past few years. It seems though that finally the retail army has been filled with fear and we saw retail flows sell en masse last week (the week before we saw institutional selling) while institutions started buying again. Although this by itself is not a reliable indicator on which to take action, it does show that ‘the smart money’ is starting to nibble at equities again. There is also around $33bln worth of US equity buying to do before the end of the quarter in order for pensions funds to rebalance and remain withing legislated asset allocations. Add quarter end and the ‘window dressing’ phenomenon and you the makings of a bull potion. Bigger picture wise, there is no real change and the world economy still looks very much in trouble, but in the short-term, Friday’s bounce might have legs for another few days.
The markets got smashed last week and even managed to close the US session on the lows. Strangely, sentiment is not at an extreme and it seems that through all of this, retail investors and traders have been net buyers. To us, this sounds like more pain is on the way. So without too much pontification, let’s look at some charts and see what we can find (other than ‘look out below!’ signs nailed to pretty much everything).
It’s been a good while since we lasted posted a weekly game plan and we thought that the time had come to wipe the dust off our blog and get to sharing the weekly game plan again. On that note, the last time we posted we indicated that we preferred to stay on the side-lines, but now we find ourselves asking if it is still a time to be careful, or not time to get back into the market?
Still a time to be careful Read More »
I have been rather vocal over the last few years on what my price target was for Bitcoin in December 2021. As some regular readers might remember, I had called for a price of $200k (yes, two hundred thousand Dollar) per Bitcoin. Clearly, I got that one wrong. It was a forecast made in 2018 and one that got rather close to being perfect, even though it was ultimately wrong. Let’s look at how I got Bitcoin wrong.
How I got Bitcoin wrong Read More »
$940bn worth of options traded on Thursday last week, making it the single biggest volume day for U.S. options… ever. Interestingly, 70% of the options traded have expiries less than one week. Also worth of note is that options volume was 140% equities volume and the vast majority of those options being bought were calls.
We have to admit that today’s post was difficult to write. It is hard to focus on opportunities in the week ahead while our country appears to be… well, having a really rough time. We often say that we must filter out the noise and focus only on those things that can accurately analyse (aka. the chart), so that is exactly what we are going to do. Besides, the world’s financial markets are looking fairly good and we’ve positioned well for strength in the offshore portfolio’s. The only thing to do now really is to be patient and hold our positions.
Be patient and hold the longs Read More »
Once again we’re doing things a little differently this week, just because we can really. So instead of giving some broader market trade ideas as we usually do, we’d thought that we would do a CFD account update and share the current open CFD trades in our managed CFD accounts.
CFD account update Read More »
Well then, alright. This week we’re doing things a little differently. @TraderPetri asked twitter what they wanted us to have a look at and we’ve obliged. In no particular order, here are the twitter chart requests for the week ahead.
Twitter chart requests Read More »
Very often we overcomplicate things for ourselves. The easy truth is that trend following it often the best way to interact with markets. Since the trend is currently very firmly up, we’re happy to toe the trend following line for as long as the trend stays in tact.
Trend following for the win! Read More »
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