Well, alright then. This market is wild. Three weeks ago we ran for cover saying the ‘the bear is here’, the following week we’d thought that maybe because the market failed to push a new low that maybe ‘the bull is back’. It turns out that the market is full of bull… and last week the wheels properly fell off the bus. So, welcome to whipsaw city, where nobody knows what is going to happen next, but everyone can be sure they’ll get injured! What a vibe -_-
We’re going to start off this weeks post by telling our readers the same thing we’ve been telling our clients for over a year now. Be careful, trade smaller, trade less often, protect your capital. The market is wild and will likely stay wild for a while. Trust us, taking chunky losses is scary and will almost certainly lead to you losing the opportunity to make the big trades when they finally come around. Be patient and conservative. The bear is here and is not taking prisoners.
Another week of painfully low volume markets locally, and nothing but a slow sideways grind in the offshore world. This current environment continues to reinforce our bearish view. Markets are feeling a little like they are about to test some key support levels as the current short-term bullish trends have broken. Let’s look at some charts and get a feel for what to expect next week.
Short-term bullish trends have broken Read More
Volatility reigns supreme and markets remain unpredictable. Thus, we place our faith in the charts and let the probabilities fall where they may.
Well, another very difficult week is behind us and to be honest we think there are many more difficult weeks ahead over the next few months. The realities of a global recession are starting to ‘hit home’ so to speak and global equity markets are not happy. Although we are seeing nothing but shorts in the shorter-term, we do think the most important message to get across in difficult times such as these is two-fold:
Ok, ok, spring just started here in South Africa… but in the northern hemisphere winter is fast approaching and looking at all the charts, economic indicators and just general happenings in the conflict with Russia… let’s just say that things are looking pretty dire. Welcome to winter northern hemisphere, I hope you are ready for a cold one.
The market has been really difficult these past few months. Well, to be honest, these past few years. It seems though that finally the retail army has been filled with fear and we saw retail flows sell en masse last week (the week before we saw institutional selling) while institutions started buying again. Although this by itself is not a reliable indicator on which to take action, it does show that ‘the smart money’ is starting to nibble at equities again. There is also around $33bln worth of US equity buying to do before the end of the quarter in order for pensions funds to rebalance and remain withing legislated asset allocations. Add quarter end and the ‘window dressing’ phenomenon and you the makings of a bull potion. Bigger picture wise, there is no real change and the world economy still looks very much in trouble, but in the short-term, Friday’s bounce might have legs for another few days.
The markets got smashed last week and even managed to close the US session on the lows. Strangely, sentiment is not at an extreme and it seems that through all of this, retail investors and traders have been net buyers. To us, this sounds like more pain is on the way. So without too much pontification, let’s look at some charts and see what we can find (other than ‘look out below!’ signs nailed to pretty much everything).
It’s been a good while since we lasted posted a weekly game plan and we thought that the time had come to wipe the dust off our blog and get to sharing the weekly game plan again. On that note, the last time we posted we indicated that we preferred to stay on the side-lines, but now we find ourselves asking if it is still a time to be careful, or not time to get back into the market?
Still a time to be careful Read More
I have been rather vocal over the last few years on what my price target was for Bitcoin in December 2021. As some regular readers might remember, I had called for a price of $200k (yes, two hundred thousand Dollar) per Bitcoin. Clearly, I got that one wrong. It was a forecast made in 2018 and one that got rather close to being perfect, even though it was ultimately wrong. Let’s look at how I got Bitcoin wrong.
How I got Bitcoin wrong Read More
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