It seems that there are a ton of people out there trading the oil price in some way or another. Most people of course have either been getting involved with Sasol or have been thinking about it. We’ve received a ton of requests from all over, from people asking about the oil price and particularly about Sasol.
Finally the US election is behind us! We’ll still see how far Trump goes to contest the election outcome, but so far it seems the the courts are not entertaining the idea. So ok, Biden wins, what now? It is reasonable to expect that more COVID related stimulus will done and the Dollar should keep weakening on that. This likely leads to more ZAR strength and might direct some investment flows into emerging markets.
Thinking about the week ahead and the craziness that is about to unfold with the US elections, my initial thought was that there would not be too much to do. In fact, I’d been planning to basically just put out a warning about this week and recommending that we just keep it small and keep it tight. To a large extent that is still what I am doing, because it’s going to be wild out there. That said, there are some charts and ideas floating around inside the HCA trading community that are worth sharing. Just keep those stops tight and the trades small. The money is made by being around long enough to capitalise when it’s easy, and allowing the market trends to do the work.
Over the last few weeks we’ve shared some thoughts about the fundamental picture we are seeing, and thus fired off a few warnings about the sustainability of the tech rally. This week we’ll keep things simple and only consider the charts, without having the fundamentals interfere with our thinking.
One of the things that we’ve been thinking about over the last few weeks is; the past. We find ourselves wondering how similar this current situation is to the one back in 2009/10. Could the monetary stimulus just refuel the rally and keep the market (first) and the world economy (second) pushing higher and harder? Possibly, yes.