Short and sweet

We’re keeping it short and sweet this week, as we think that is likely the right positioning on DM indices right now.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)
S&P 500 (SPY)

As usual, we start with the SPY. We’ve been a little prematurely bearish here while the market kept climbing higher and higher. It seems now though it has finally made a downturn after hitting the $461 level we focused on some months ago. From here, we’d expect to see the market test support at $430.

Short and sweet
Nasdaq (QQQ)

Next up is the Q’s. Nasdaq ran a little harder than the upside target we had for it, which was the source of much of our premature bearishness. It has since turned and is about to test the very steep uptrend line. Our thinking here is that the trendline breaks and we finally see a decent correction after around four months of straight up.

Short and sweet
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ)

If the QQQ does in fact break that trendline and has a bit of a wobble/correction, we really like SQQQ for a strategic hedge or a speculative long. Keep in mind, this is an inverse ETF with 3x gearing. In other words, if QQQ falls 1%, SQQQ should rally 3%. In other words, keep a tight stop on this.

Short and sweet
Brent Crude Oil

Alright, so Oil has reached the top of the channel. Where too from here, we will have to wait and see. It’s looking a little overbought at the moment, but we’re not brave enough to bet against it just yet.

USDZAR

R18.60 held… for now at least. Do we move down to R17.60 again, or do we break above resistance and head for R19.50 again? Let’s see. Our current view is that we see weakness ahead, so our call is R19.50.

South African trade ideas
JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

We called a bullish break of this resistance level on Trade of the Week (BDTV show on Monday’s), although it seems that we got it spectacularly wrong. Let’s see how the week ahead unfolds. We’d love to be bullish here, but if the U.S. markets come off a bit, we don’t see how the ALSI will be saved from the downward pressure. That said… Rand hedges and locals could rally. Banks have been really strong lately and EM is generally undervalued in our view. Hard to call to be honest.

Capitec (CPI)

Talking of strong banks, CPI seem to have broken the downtrend. Well, almost. It needs to clear R1800 (which very technically, it did on Friday) in order to print a higher-high. R1900 next stop?

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

We were looking for the bounce from the trendline. It tried, it back-tested, we thought that it might be giving another chance to get long… we thought wrong. The trendline broke (on some negative news) and we’ve stopped out.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is looking good. Broke above the resistance level, held it on the back-test and closed at the highs on Friday. We like the long here.

Netcare (NTC)

For the brave and the bottom pickers. NTC is once again on the R13.55 level, which it has held and bounced from a few times over the last year or so.

Tiger Brands (TBS)

TBS short is playing out well so far.

Short and sweet
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HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates
Trading instrumentBrokerage rateMargin rateMinimum trade charge
JSE listed equities and ETFs0.30%100%R150
CFDs on JSE listed equities0.20%10% – 25%R50
SAFEX listed index futures (ALSI)R206% – 8%R20 per contract
Offshore stockbroking rates
Trading instrumentBrokerage rateMargin rateMinimum trade charge
U.S. listed equities and ETFsUSD 1 cents per share100%USD 2
Canada listed equities and ETFsCAD 2 cents per share100%CAD 2
U.K. listed equities and ETFsGBP 12 + 0.1%100%GBP 12
Germany listed equities and ETFs0.20%100%EUR 8
Forex0.40%100%USD 4
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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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Every week needs a new plan!

Markets change all the time. New fundamental drivers emerge, technical setups mature or fail and our trading plan must adjust in order to keep up with the ever changing environment. Every week we highlight some of the trade ideas that are generated within our client community so that you can stay on top of what we're looking out for and planning to trade at the beginning of each week. 

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