We’re not really seeing a huge amount of trade ideas at the moment. Partly because we want to stay out of the way of major volatility. Partly because we are just not seeing any new setups worth trading at this stage. Interestingly, we’ve noticed (and pointed out via our twitter account a few times) that options traders were propping up tech stocks (we specifically mentioned Tesla) by buying huge amounts of call options every time the market opens in the U.S. The ‘tech call option whale’ that’s been doing a lot of this buying has now been identified as SoftBank. The party might be over now that we know who the person in the clown suit is. Time will tell. Interestingly, we also had news that Tesla will not be included in the S&P500 index. The stock has been pushed higher on speculation of inclusion, which is now not going to happen. Perhaps the Nasdaq melt-up might have finally come to an end?
S&P500
Using the SPY ETF as our tool to track the S&P500 index, we note a nice bounce off the lows of Friday’s trading session. Technically the daily candle formed a hammer. Although not a perfect one, it is pretty close to perfect. The fact that the hammer was formed on a significant support level counts in its favour. That said, not every hammer is a buy signal. We want to point out the support zone that comes into play around the 50 day moving average (and just below – as indicated by the red horizontal levels). In the short-term, we expect that the market will come down to test those support levels at least. All of that said, the market is still in a medium-term to longer-term bull configuration. So while we are expecting this correction to still get a little deeper, we can’t yet tell if this is a repeat of the late-February to mid-March action, or if this is more similar to early-June. For now, we’re just being careful and ensuring that we don’t take geared long positions until there is a more clear buying opportunity.
USDZAR
We still largely think that the USDZAR will take its lead from the DXY (as indicated in last week’s post) and therefore do not currently much more to add to that view. Riskier traders could trade long positions off the support here, taking a view that we could see a move back to the top of the range. That trade does offer a good risk-reward and has a very clear stop loss.
Gold
Gold seems to be forming a descending triangle. Conventional knowledge says that this price formation is usually bearish, although we want to point out that this is in fact a bilateral pattern and has a 50/50 chance of breaking either lower or higher. With these formations, the pattern does not necessarily indicate the direction of the expected breakout, but rather is just a useful tool that can be used to measure a target for the breakout when it comes (whichever direction it might be in). The two potential targets here are thus $2160 and $1760 (roughly). In the even that the Nasdaq comes unstuck in the week ahead and there is some panic, we might see ‘the correlation of everything go to 1’ again. In other words, panic in equity markets would lead to a rush for liquidity and we might see this formation break lower. At least, that is our current thinking.
Palladium
Palladium is still looking bullish, although it might have a hard time breaking free of overhead resistance in the very short-term. As demand gradually returns to the global economy, the structural shortage of Palladium will become a driver or prices again.
Woolworths
Some support around the R30.50 level, but one clear of that the short trade looks good.
Old Mutual
It was a bit of a wild week for the Old Mutt last week, but so far this short trade is looking rather good. The chart on the left indicates the formation that we are trading, while the chart on the right is more focused on momentum oscillators, which are all very supportive of the short trade at this stage.
Nedbank
So far so good on the bear flag trade on NED. Support expected to come in around the R80 level. Watch out for USDZAR strength though.
Massmart
Our community pointed out a potential megaphone / broadening pattern on MSM. These are usually very reliable trend reversal patterns over the longer-term, so we are most definitely sitting up and taking note. On the left we indicate the broadening pattern and note that the shorter-term and medium-term moving averages are starting to fall into a bullish configuration. There is still some way to go before we can confidently say that the trend has changed though. On the right we focus more on the oscillators and we note that both the Stochastic and MACD have both given their full range of buy signals. We also note that the stock is a trending relative outperformer and that On Balance Volume is moving higher, which is indicative of more and more volume participating (buying) as price goes higher. Note that this is a long-term pattern and this trade is perhaps better suited as an equity trade (or a medium-term investment, if you will).
Imperial Holdings
Not really much to do here, although the continuous rejection of the R37.00 level is worrying for the long view on this trade. Perhaps it’s time to get rid of the risk?
Glencore
Last week we spoke of mixed signals on GLN and this week things are pretty much the same. Our bias is shifting more and more toward the short though.
Redefine
RDF has come down a lot since the peak. We’re looking at a potential move above R2.50 for a new buying opportunity from a bounce off support.
MTN
It’s not looking good for MTN. Well, it is looking good for a short on MTN. Momentum wise, this is ticking all the boxes as well. Decent risk-reward on offer too. We like this trade.
Harmony Gold
R97.50 was the last line of defense here and it broke with Friday’s close. We could see a move down to previous resistance.
Growthpoint
A daily close above R12.50 / R12.60 could be a short-term buying opportunity with a stop loss below R12.10 and a target of R13.50 / R14.00.
Goldfields
GFI closed below the day day moving average. Below here, moves could be large and fast.
We like the idea of having at least one long in the banking space to offset risk on our NED short.
FirstRand
FSR results are due this week. Getting above R37.00 might be positive for a bounce back to the 50 day moving average.
Capitec
CPI looks like it could be a decent buy. We see some higher lows, although momentum wise it’s in the middle of nowhere.
ABSA Group
Speculative long off the support here with a stop at R75.00.
*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.