It is a confusing time to be involved in stock markets. On one hand we have rising stock prices and breaking down trends, while on the other hand (Darren) we see continued signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. This paints a confusing picture and honestly makes it difficult being a bear.
Although markets have rallied hard in the last few weeks, we are not convinced that we are out of the woods. How much more squeeze is left in this rally?
How much more squeeze? Read More
The time is finally here and soon we will know the fate of markets for the next six months. It’s all about earnings as companies start to report 2nd quarter numbers this week. If we see that earnings is down broadly, we think that could lead to the second leg lower of this current bear market. Until now, despite high inflation and the odd absolutely counterintuitive personal stimulus cheques American’s have been getting, corporate earnings have been rather robust. The post-covid world has served the world’s largest corporations well… but has the money printer eventually managed to do more harm than good? In our view, yes.
It’s all about earnings Read More
It’s the 4th of July on Monday and the day that the US celebrates independence day! Which means two things… the US markets are closed (and it will be a bit of a rudderless day for us on Monday) and that we can probably show you the most accurate picture of how markets have been trading so far this year.
The market has been really difficult these past few months. Well, to be honest, these past few years. It seems though that finally the retail army has been filled with fear and we saw retail flows sell en masse last week (the week before we saw institutional selling) while institutions started buying again. Although this by itself is not a reliable indicator on which to take action, it does show that ‘the smart money’ is starting to nibble at equities again. There is also around $33bln worth of US equity buying to do before the end of the quarter in order for pensions funds to rebalance and remain withing legislated asset allocations. Add quarter end and the ‘window dressing’ phenomenon and you the makings of a bull potion. Bigger picture wise, there is no real change and the world economy still looks very much in trouble, but in the short-term, Friday’s bounce might have legs for another few days.
Wowzers! What a week that was. I’ll keep the post brief this week as there really isn’t much in the way of positivity on my radar, so the overall message is really just trade small, be careful, stick to stop losses or maybe just take the next few weeks off. Don’t be a hero in this market. So many people are trying to catch the bounce and ‘use this volatility to make the big bucks’, but trust me, for every 10 that enter, 1 will leave. So best stay out of the market until the culling is over. That said, many charts are in the weekly timeframe this week as some longer-term perspective is often helpful.
The markets got smashed last week and even managed to close the US session on the lows. Strangely, sentiment is not at an extreme and it seems that through all of this, retail investors and traders have been net buyers. To us, this sounds like more pain is on the way. So without too much pontification, let’s look at some charts and see what we can find (other than ‘look out below!’ signs nailed to pretty much everything).
inflation narrative circulating at the moment, as well as the key indicators kind of being on a knifes edge and giving mixed signals… it is probably wise to say on the side-lines for now.
months! It has not retraced this much, and this fast since the infamous COVID-crash. The question is; is this just a tantrum, or a trend change? To be fair, a case can be made for both and honestly right now I think (at least for me) it is too early to tell.
Just a tantrum, or a trend change? Read More
A busy schedule for us on this side, sto this week we offer only some brief thoughts and a handful of offshore trading ideas.
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