Since we first started publishing this weekly recap, this might genuinely rank as one of the most volatile and fast-moving trading weeks we have ever had to navigate, courtesy of the Midterm Elections! With the US Midterm Elections signalling a clear political shift in Washington, macro assets went into overdrive. Brent Crude experienced a massive, rapid sell-off, Gold staged a fierce rally back above the $4,000/oz mark, and the US Dollar weakened noticeably against the Rand as global risk appetite surged.

While that initial market euphoria wasn’t entirely sustainable across every asset class, the resulting moves across the local JSE were nothing short of extraordinary. The J40 benchmark index surged nearly 5% at its peak on Thursday, with some stocks seeing gaps of more than 10% right from the opening bell. On high-velocity days like these, greed can easily get the better of you, but our discipline remains firm: it is always wise to take profits when the market hands them to you on a silver platter. That is why we actively locked in gains across multiple closed positions this week (except for our J40 position), while aggressively trailing our stop-losses upward on our remaining open trades to ensure we protect accumulated capital and never let a solid winner turn into a loser.

That dynamic brings us directly to our core trading lesson of the week. On Tuesday, right after closing out our Sasol (SOL) position, we were actively contemplating opening a long trade in AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)—a setup that ultimately exploded higher and would have yielded a massive gain. Naturally, we spent a good chunk of Thursday kicking ourselves for not pulling the trigger on AngloGold, while completely overlooking the fact that exiting SOL early saved our account from a brutal, compounding drawdown. It is a classic psychological trap, but one every trader needs to internalise: trading is not about catching every single winning move on the board; it is about relentlessly protecting your capital so you stay solvent and positioned to play the next edge.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

It was an extremely volatile week dominated by the US Midterm Elections and local municipal elections in South Africa. Key US macroeconomic data releases also hit the tape, including Non-Farm Payrolls, crude oil inventory reports, and the latest unemployment rate.

Closed Trades (Profit)

Capitec Bank Holdings (JSE: CPI) (1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Closed at a profit. Bought at R4,560.05. Sold at R4,911.50.
• Status: A massive session for South African banking counters and the broader JSE on Thursday. We were fortunate enough to get hit during the closing auction right at previous all-time highs.

Bidvest Group Limited (JSE: BVT) (Remaining 1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Closed at a profit. Bought at R223.26. Sold at R247.03.
• Status: This was our original target level, so we are more than happy to lock in profits and move on. Even if the broader market continues upward from here, we stick to our plan and never dwell on “what ifs.”

Mr Price Group (JSE: MRP) (1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Closed at a profit. Bought at R172.58. Sold at R186.30.
• Status: Filled at our original take-profit level near previous swing highs. We have now moved our stop-loss into positive territory to lock in a profit while letting the remainder run toward our second target around R208.00.

Truworths International Limited (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Closed at a profit. Bought at R42.31. Sold at R46.58.
• Status: Our original strategy was to trim half the position around R50.00; however, Truworths released a trading update on Thursday that looked disappointing. Given the fundamental shift, we decided to close out the full position. While we could have squeezed out a bit more upside technically, taking guaranteed profits avoided a potential sharp reversal.

SA Top 40 Index (JSE: J40)

• Trade Logic: Closed at a profit. Bought at 104,425. Sold at 104,621.70.
• Status: Expecting the JSE to post strong gains on Thursday, we took a tactical intra-day trade on the index. Hoping for extended momentum, we trailed our stop-loss tightly behind price action rather than placing a fixed limit order at the high of the day.

Active Open Trades

Mr Price Group (JSE: MRP) (Remaining 1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Mr Price looks poised to break its primary downtrend while forming a bullish cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart.
• Status: Active. Bought at R172.58. Currently showing an unrealised profit. Trailed the stop loss to R176,41

Capitec Bank Holdings (JSE: CPI) (Remaining 1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Capitec broke out above its primary downtrend line. With half profit secured at previous peaks, we are letting the remainder run with a trailing stop.
• Status: Active: Bought at R4,560.05. Currently showing an unrealised profit. Trailed the stop loss to R4 702,37

Pick n Pay Stores Ltd (JSE: PIK) (1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: PnP is a long-term core portfolio holding. Now that it has broken cleanly above R20.00, we expect momentum to carry it much higher. 
• Status: Active. Bought at R20.11. Currently showing an unrealised profit. Trailed the stop loss to R23,40

Vodacom Group Ltd (JSE: VOD)

• Trade Logic: Vodacom reached recent swing highs following a breakout from a symmetrical triangle. However, it is struggling to hold above the critical R160.00 level. If it fails to maintain this pivot, we will likely exit prior to hitting our stop-loss.
• Status: Active. Bought at R160.50. Currently showing a small unrealised profit.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at an attractive discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R447.00. Currently showing a small unrealised loss.

Closed Trades

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL) (3 x tranche positions)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R288.30, R278.38, and R268.80. Closed at R262.07.
• Details: Tuesday brought a sharp sell-off in Brent Crude, with Sasol following rapidly lower. We chose to manage risk proactively and exit early before hitting our hard stop-loss. This proved to be the right move, as Sasol faced severe additional selling pressure on Thursday and Friday.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R204.00. Sold at R178.21.
• Details: We held this position for an extended period and ideally should have trimmed it sooner. While we benefited from an interim rally, Thursday’s market volatility triggered our trailing stop-loss. Although it ended in a loss, it was far smaller than it could have been. This was a hard lesson and one we will not be repeating again. Stop losses are like terrorists; do not negotiate with them!

Thoughts On The Week Ahead

Like almost everyone else in the country right now, we are glued to every single update rolling in from the local municipal elections to see how the final tally shapes up. But the bigger mystery for traders isn’t just the vote count itself—it’s trying to decipher what the market has already priced in, and how domestic assets will react if we see a significant decline in the ANC’s traditional majority. Unfortunately, because official final results are expected to trickle out over the weekend, pre-positioning in local equities is effectively off the table. However, we will be watching price action on the USD/ZAR very closely leading into Monday’s open for an early read on sentiment, as a stronger rand could benefit the banking sector. 

Instead of getting bogged down in weekend election noise, we prefer to step back and look at the bigger picture—specifically the key macro divergence between Gold and Brent Crude. Both commodities saw massive, volatile swings this week: Gold staged an impressive rally back above the $4,000/oz mark, while Brent Crude traded below $100 a barrel for a brief two-day window before attempting to stabilise.

What we will be paying close attention to in the days ahead is whether Gold has the strength to firmly hold the $4,000 level this time around, and how Washington’s shifting political balance plays out following the US Midterm Elections. With Congress shifting to a Democratic majority, the market will be weighing how much room President Trump has to push his agenda versus being forced into compromise. Will geopolitical friction around Iran escalate further, or will political pressures nudge leaders toward diplomatic negotiations?

If we begin to see concrete signs of a peace deal or easing geopolitical tension, we will look to re-enter Gold and PGM mining stocks on pullbacks, while potentially setting up tactical short positions in defensive, high-yield counters like British American Tobacco (BTI).

Economic Data

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.