It’s not every week that we get to say this, so when we can, we definitely will: zero closed trades in a loss AND the overall account is up. It was a standout week for us, and we have learned a new Key lesson. For every trade, we have a set take profit where we will take half of the position off and let the rest run with a trailing stop loss.

What makes this performance particularly satisfying is the heavy macro backdrop we had to navigate to get here. While our portfolio held firm, global markets were far less forgiving—especially for tech and mining bulls. If you are an “AI investor” who firmly believes every dip is a buy, get out your wallet! High-flying tech names took a severe beating, with Alphabet (GOOGL) dropping nearly 13%, Marvell (MRVL) shedding 13.24%, and Amazon (AMZN) slipping 4.25% on Thursday. This sell-off inevitably dragged the NASDAQ 100 down from around $29,700 to roughly $28,600 by the JSE close on Friday, compounded further by headline risk after Binance suffered a major hack.

At the same time, precious metals have seen better days, with Gold printing new lows alongside Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. This slump filtered directly into the J40, where local mining stocks suffered one of their worst sessions in weeks as nearly all of them printed new swing lows on Friday. Sidestepping pure mining equities in our active holdings has certainly helped us sleep at night! However, given the broader volatility across global tech and local resource sectors, we advise maintaining a cautious stance heading into the weekend and early next week.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

It was a very busy week macro-wise as we navigated the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision (rates held unchanged) alongside the accompanying FOMC statement. We also received key US economic updates, including Core PCE inflation, GDP data, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Thungela Resources Limited (JSE: TGA) (Remaining 1/2 position)

• Status: Closed at a profit. Bought at R125.50. Sold at R153.01.
• Details: Thungela had a strong start to the week, but momentum quickly reversed. As it was struggling slightly to hold above R150, we placed a limit order to lock in profits at R153.01 on Tuesday and were fortunate enough to get filled right before the stock pulled back further.

Pick n Pay Stores Ltd (JSE: PIK) (1/2 position)

• Status: Closed at a profit. Bought at R20.11. Sold at R22.50.
• Details: This marks one of our fastest and biggest winning trades so far. We opened this position on 16 October and locked in profits on half the size just 10 days later. We will let the remaining half run while trailing our stop-loss to protect accumulated gains.

Bidvest Group Limited (JSE: BVT) (1/2 position)

• Status: Closed at a profit. Bought at R223,26. Sold at R239,26.
• Details: Massive reversal candle shown today, so we decided to close half at market close. 

Active Open Trades

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL) (1/3 of standard position size)

• Trade Logic: We might be a bit late to the party; however, when Brent Crude was trading around current levels for an extended period historically in 2022, Sasol was trading in the R350–R400 price range. If oil continues to trade higher, Sasol could easily return to those price levels.
• Status: Active. Bought at R288.30. Currently showing a small, unrealised profit.

Mr Price Group (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: Mr Price looks as though it might break its downtrend, while also forming a cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart, which is a very bullish technical signal.
• Status: Active. Bought at R172.58. Currently showing a small unrealised profit.

Capitec Bank Holdings (JSE: CPI)

• Trade Logic: Capitec has broken above its primary downtrend line. It is currently trading close to all-time highs, so we are monitoring it closely with the intention of taking profit on half at the peak and letting the remainder run.
• Status: Active. Bought at R4,560.05. Currently showing a small unrealised profit.

Pick n Pay Stores Ltd (JSE: PIK)

• Trade Logic: Pick n Pay is a stock we have held in the portfolio long-term, and it is usually one of our first go-to picks for clients asking about longer-term trade ideas. Now that it has finally broken above R20, we believe it could move to R21 or even R22.
• Status: Active. Bought at R20.11. Currently showing an unrealised profit.

Vodacom Group Ltd (JSE: VOD)

• Trade Logic: Vodacom has reached recent swing highs and appears to have broken out of a symmetrical triangle. However, it is struggling slightly to hold above the key R160 level—which is vital for confirming breakout validity. If it fails to hold this mark, we will likely exit prior to hitting our hard stop-loss.
• Status: Active. Bought at R160.50. Currently showing a small unrealised loss.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Just like earlier, Exxaro stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar and higher global coal prices.
• Status: Active. Bought at R204.00. Currently showing an unrealised loss.

Bidvest Group Limited (JSE: BVT) (Remaining 1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Bidvest has been consolidating in a range between R222.72 and R253.50. Anticipating that R222.72 would act as key support, we entered at that level, targeting a move back toward the upper bound near R253.50.
• Status: Active. Bought at R223.26. Currently showing a profit.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R447.00. Currently showing a small unrealised loss. 

Truworths International Limited (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Truworths was trading at a major historical support level that has repeatedly held over recent sessions. We initiated a long position to capture a technical bounce off this level.
• Status: Active. Bought at R42.31. Showing a nice unrealised profit. We might need to close half at R48 as it seems unable to break past that price. 

Thoughts On The Week Ahead

Gold remains pinned below $4,000/oz, oil is ticking higher, US Big Tech has taken a hit, and Treasury yields are starting to ease—leaving markets visibly nervous as the VIX jumped more than 12% by 5 o’clock on Friday. Looking ahead, we expect a volatile week driven by heavy catalysts: tech earnings from Apple (AAPL) and AMD will test whether growth stocks can recover, while the US Midterm Elections on Tuesday and SA Local Government Elections on Wednesday could spark sharp swings in the USD/ZAR pair. We are also keeping a close watch on Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls data to gauge the Fed’s next rate moves, alongside tracking gold’s support levels and crude oil’s momentum for our commodity plays. 

Economic Data

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.