You can almost the fear and confusion on twitter this evening. Rumours abound that Credit Suisse is on the verge of going bust thanks to some pension fund liabilities. So… Credit Suisse = Black Monday?
Credit Suisse = Black Monday? Read More
Well, another very difficult week is behind us and to be honest we think there are many more difficult weeks ahead over the next few months. The realities of a global recession are starting to ‘hit home’ so to speak and global equity markets are not happy. Although we are seeing nothing but shorts in the shorter-term, we do think the most important message to get across in difficult times such as these is two-fold:
Markets bounced pretty hard last week on the back of an options-led squeeze, and it’s fairly likely that we see more of the same in the coming week.
excited about. Overall though, we expect the week ahead to be ‘risk on’. At least for the developed world. South African markets might be facing its own headwinds and continued currency fallout as a result of the cabinet reshuffle last week. Setups are sparse, so play defense and don’t try to force trades that are not there.
The second half of last week got really wild, really fast. Given the fact that hardly anything has changed – in the sense that there are no interest rate hikes on the table for at least another year and a half, and that the FED will continue to buy $120bn worth of bonds every month – we think that the market might have had a bit of a strong ‘knee-jerk’ reaction to the FOMC minutes. Thus, we say buy the dip. As long as the free money keeps flowing, it will be difficult for the market to sustain downside.
It’s an age old saying in the market, and for good reason. The trend is your friend. Often we try to fight it and mostly, it wins the day. Markets are currently trending higher, and thus our plan is to find opportunities to get onboard with the trend and allow it to make the returns for us.
The trend is your friend Read More
Well then, that’ll teach us to think that markets can actually come down from time time! Jokes aside, the bearish setups from last week have all be nullified and a fresh set of breakouts have taken place. Guess when it comes to equity market rallies, you really can’t stop a good thing. We’re not entirely convinced from a long-term perspective, but for the short-term traders… well, the job is to follow the market. So if you can’t stop a good thing, you might as well join in the fun.
Can’t stop a good thing Read More
The age old adage of “Sell in May and go away”… Well, it’s May. What now?
Ironically, the bullish breakouts that took place last week, for the most part, seem to be failing. Perhaps “Sell in May and go away” is rooted in more than just seasonality and superstition? Either way, charts are looking a lot less bullish than they did over the last three or so weeks.
Sell in May and go away Read More
Over the last few weeks, markets have remained rather strong in the face of many challenges. Last week we finally got confirmation that more stimulus cheques are in the mail for Americans, although it seems that $1.9 trillion was not enough to help equity indices end the week in the green. Risks remain elevated and volatility is stubbornly not abating, thus we are starting to think that it is time for a pullback. There are a few long indeas in precious metals and commodities, but for the most part, caution is advised.
Time for a pullback? Read More
Once again the U.S. Fed has tossed the kitchen sink across the room in a bid to keep the music going. We’re still to see how markets react, but from what we’ve seen so far, once the stimulus cheques are in the mail, stonks only go up!
Stimulus cheques are in the mail Read More
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