You can almost the fear and confusion on twitter this evening. Rumours abound that Credit Suisse is on the verge of going bust thanks to some pension fund liabilities. So… Credit Suisse = Black Monday?
Credit Suisse = Black Monday? Read More
Markets bounced pretty hard last week on the back of an options-led squeeze, and it’s fairly likely that we see more of the same in the coming week.
Jackson Hole? More like Jackson pit of despair! Markets did not like Jerome Powell’s speech. Where do markets go from here?
More like Jackson pit of despair Read More
The markets got smashed last week and even managed to close the US session on the lows. Strangely, sentiment is not at an extreme and it seems that through all of this, retail investors and traders have been net buyers. To us, this sounds like more pain is on the way. So without too much pontification, let’s look at some charts and see what we can find (other than ‘look out below!’ signs nailed to pretty much everything).
It’s been a good while since we lasted posted a weekly game plan and we thought that the time had come to wipe the dust off our blog and get to sharing the weekly game plan again. On that note, the last time we posted we indicated that we preferred to stay on the side-lines, but now we find ourselves asking if it is still a time to be careful, or not time to get back into the market?
Still a time to be careful Read More
Last week we called for new highs and we got them. Now we’re kind of sitting here thinking that is is looking a bit stretched and wondering if the market is not due a bit of a breather.
Looking a bit stretched Read More
The market has become very strange indeed. The trend is so strong and there are so many dip buyers around that it seems the part will never stop. Although, whenever there are a few down days, the mood turns really dark and a semi-panic seems to take over. This is one more thing that worries us when thinking with the longer-term hat on. Why are traders to extremely negative when the market ticks down only a few percent? How much is the average trader geared and long the market? What happens when the market pulls back 10%? What happens when the Fed actually hikes interest rates? And what happens if the Fed hikes rates and starts tapering at the same time? These are some of the questions that we are pondering. But for now, the show goes on and the bulls keep dancing. Buckle up, because we’re headed for new highs.
Headed for new highs Read More
Last week we pondered the idea of hedging longer-term portfolios for some downside protection. We also looked at a few instruments that could easily be added to your portfolio in order to provide that protection. This week we do not really have much to add, other than to reiterate the warning given last week. We think that it might get a little bumpy over the coming weeks. Thus we are happy to sit with some short protection and wait for better setups.
It might get a little bumpy Read More
The last two weeks have been tough. In all honesty, the reason this blog post is only being posted now is because I found it difficult to not express an opinion on the current happenings in our country. It is deeply concerning. I must have written and rewritten this first paragraph at least ten times. It just feels disingenuous to write up a blog post that optimistically looks for opportunities, while our cities are burning. So with a heavy heart, I have to force myself to clear my mind of the anxiety and noise and focus on the charts.
We have to admit that today’s post was difficult to write. It is hard to focus on opportunities in the week ahead while our country appears to be… well, having a really rough time. We often say that we must filter out the noise and focus only on those things that can accurately analyse (aka. the chart), so that is exactly what we are going to do. Besides, the world’s financial markets are looking fairly good and we’ve positioned well for strength in the offshore portfolio’s. The only thing to do now really is to be patient and hold our positions.
Be patient and hold the longs Read More
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