This week we saw a fairly quiet week on the JSE, with little to no new updates other than the offer by Sanlam (SLM) to acquire all of the issued ordinary shares of Santam (SNT) and Woolworths (WHL), confirming their acquisition of In2Foods. The J40 had a terrible day on Thursday as it opened and closed below the support level of R 100 000, the first time since September 2025. This, of course had to happen on the day that we decided to take a long on the J40, with the belief that the R 100 000 has held up in the past, and surely will continue to hold up.

That brings us to our key lesson this week; Never assume that the past will predict the future. As the famous saying goes: “History does not repeat itself, it rhymes”. Which is exactly what we saw happen today. Even though the R 100 000 support level did not hold up the way we wanted it to, it had a very good day today and came right back to close above the support level. Main reasons for this massive move up was due to the fact that Chinese markets were closed on account of several public holidays, which led to an increase in gold buying, as well as Trump tweeting that he will hold off on attacks on the middle east until after the November elections. 

Apart from our immense hatred of the J40 now, we were not as active as usual. The JSE saw similar days of sell off this week with no news, but some stocks holding up quite well. To name a few; Thungela (TGA), Exxaro (EXX), Sasol (SOL), Anheuser-Busch (ANH) and Shoprite (SHP). While we only closed losers this week, our current open positions are performing better, with more showing a profit. 

Last week

Macro Catalyst

It’s been a very quiet week overall, with no major macroeconomic catalysts driving the domestic or international markets.

Active Open Trades

BHP Group Ltd (JSE: BHG)

• Trade Logic: BHP continues to trade within a defined channel between R680.85 and R754.58. Anticipating that a recovery in iron ore prices will support upward momentum, our price target remains the upper end of the channel, near R754.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R701.05. Currently showing a small, unrealised profit.

Thungela Resources Limited (JSE: TGA) 

• Trade Logic: Alongside Exxaro (EXX), Thungela experienced a sharp few days of decline. With a firming US Dollar, we anticipate the stock will benefit from hard-currency revenue tailwinds.
• Status: Active. Bought at R121.80. Currently showing an unrealised profit.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar and higher global coal prices.
• Status: Active. Average entry at R196.83. Currently trading at an unrealised loss.

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (JSE: APN)

• Trade Logic: Aspen was recently included in the Top 40 index, generating initial buying momentum that broke past previous resistance near R160.00. However, the price retraced below that level, signalling a lack of sustained momentum. We initiated a short position, targeting a move toward R143.00.
• Status: Active. Shorted at R158.40. Currently trading at breakeven. (Note: We incurred an R2.32 per share dividend obligation, for which we adjusted our stop loss accordingly).

Bidvest Group Limited (JSE: BVT)

• Trade Logic: Bidvest has been consolidating in a range between R222.72 and R253.50. Anticipating that R222.72 would act as key support, we entered at that level targeting a move back toward the upper bound near R253.50.
• Status: Active. Bought at R223.26. Currently showing a small profit.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R447.00. Price action remains range-bound. We are managing position size while remaining positioned for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Truworths International Limited (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: TRU was trading at a major historical support level that has repeatedly held over recent sessions. We initiated a long position to capture a technical bounce off this level.
• Status: Active. Bought at R42.31. Showing a nice unrealised profit.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R3,435.01 | Closed at R3,390.71.
• Details: We reversed to a long position after technical indicators suggested the short move was concluding. However, CFR suffered a sharp decline on Thursday; to manage downside risk, we closed the position to preserve capital.

SA Top 40 (JSE: J40)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R101,267 | Sold at R98,696.
• Details: We entered anticipating an attractive risk-reward setup above R100,000 support. The market broke support on Thursday, triggering our risk management exit.

Mondi Plc (JSE: MNP)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Entry at R183.00 | Sold at R171.90.
• Details: Generated as a trade setup during our morning call. The stock initially teased a breakout but reversed sharply and triggered our stop-loss level.

Thoughts On The Week Ahead

The two things that stood out for us this week was Gold and the J40. While the J40 has dumped us and decided that we need some time apart, we focus on our other interesting point, which is Gold. Since end of August, Gold has been coming down slowly but surely, unable to find a support. However, it seems like we might have formed a base around $ 4100 with a resistance of $4180.

An important point to take note of, is that Gold has been performing surprisingly well considering that almost 3 interest rate hikes before next year June has already been priced into the market. This shows us that investors are holding onto Gold with both hands, firmly believing that the next Gold bull run will follow soon. Now whether this move in Gold today was purely because of the Chinese markets reopening after a public holiday, or if it is an overall market sentiment, remains to be seen. Regardless of the reason, this will be our focus for next week, as we have several precious metals and gold mining companies listed on the JSE. The challenge becomes which of these would perform the best, and which of them will be a lesson in waiting….

Economic Data

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