We’re making some changes, again. Always. We’re growing and learning and improving and continuously earning our spot in the hearts and minds of our clients. In recent months we have been posting some snippets from our morning call, but now we are going back to a weekly format. The weekly game plan is back!

We are looking for ways to keep delivering morning call snippets, however we would like to try a new format to communicate some of our ideas and trading results to you, dear reader. Keeping that in mind, this format might change a little as today’s post is only the first one and we will keep improving on it as time goes by.

So, without further ado, let’s get into it!

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets and boosting our overall performance this week was core PCE inflation data coming in slightly above expectations. On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. While no firm policy commitments were made, his overall tone was notably hawkish.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (JSE: APN)

• Trade Logic: We established a long position on 21 August following the broader sentiment surge in global pharma (sparked by Moderna’s record trial results earlier in the week). Following an interim trading update today, the stock experienced brief volatility before stabilizing.
• Status: Bought at R 148.95 – Closed at R 154.65 on 26 August. Looking back, we could have held it for another day given its continued upward momentum, but we are happy to lock in the profit on this one.

Truworths International Ltd (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Truworths released its earnings yesterday, and after reviewing the report, we noted soft operational numbers. Consequently, we executed a tactical short position. Admittedly, this was a high-risk trade, but it paid off quickly.
• Status: Sold short at R 49.85 – Closed at R 47.00. We continuously lowered our trailing stop-loss to protect gains, successfully locking in a solid profit.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We already have a Harmony positions, but after Harmony suffered a severe sell-off on Thursday, dropping nearly 10% intraday, we decided to add to our trade. We bought at R 325.00 as we felt confident that HAR was oversold at those levels.
• Status: Bought at R 325.00 – Closed at R 339.00 for a quick R 14 intraday move. This allowed us to capture profits to offset our core position, reducing our new average price on our core position to R 346.16.

Active Open Trades

Thungela Resources (JSE: TGA)

• Trade Logic: TGA was a trade idea given the current drought in Europe and the fact that Europe are not able to use Hydro or nuclear electricity anymore. We then thought to buy TGA with the thought that Coal prices would increase. 
• Status: Active (Increased Exposure). Bought at R97.53, sold half our position at an average price at R118.10. Increased our position size on Monday by buying more at R121.10.

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Trade Logic: SSW hit a new local peak on Tuesday. Anticipating a run toward R52.00, we entered at the open around R43.00, benefiting from U.S. Treasury announcements, dollar weakness, and rising PGM and gold prices.
• Status: Active (Increased Exposure). Bought at R 43.00 on the 18th – Closed half at R 51.26 on the 21st. We bought more on the 24th at R 50.65.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We entered a long position following Harmony’s trading statement last week.
• Status: Active. After some active trading during last week, our average price is now R 346.16. This core trade has faced headwinds. However, our tactical intraday trade allowed us to recoup some capital, and we continue to hold the core position for now.

British American Tobacco PLC (JSE: BTI)

• Trade Logic: We believe the stock has hit strong technical support and are positioning for a rebound.
• Status: Active. We entered at R 913.00 and are currently sitting at a minor paper loss, but the setup remains intact.

Absa Group Ltd (JSE: ABG)

• Trade Logic: Absa reported earnings on Tuesday featuring strong full-year profitability; however, the market reacted with a brief sell-off. We bought shortly after the open around R 226.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 226.59. We remain in the trade and are currently sitting in a small profit.

Standard Bank Group Ltd (JSE: SBK)

• Trade Logic: SBK was trading sideways, presenting a low-risk entry near support. We bought the lows targeting a move back toward R 337.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 315.39. Currently showing a modest profit as we wait for further upside momentum.

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL)

• Trade Logic: Brent crude has been volatile, but we identified key historical support near R 180.00 and executed via a limit order.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 180.00. Sasol had a very strong session on Friday, gaining 5.34%.

Naspers Ltd (JSE: NPN)

• Trade Logic: Naspers (alongside Tencent) continues to consolidate sideways within a broader uptrend. We are positioned for an upside breakout.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 790.99. Stop-loss maintained at R 740.00.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet remains significantly undervalued relative to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R 447.00. Price action has been sluggish, but we are holding with our stop-loss set at R 418.51.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Valterra Platinum Ltd (JSE: VAL)

• Status: Closed at a loss. VAL had a rough week following market speculation that it was the undisclosed bidder in an approach to NPH. The stock fell 5.3% on rumor, and once confirmed that VAL was indeed the interested party, we exited the trade to mitigate potential further downside.
• Bought at R 1475.97 – closed at R 1405.00. 

Vodacom Group Ltd (JSE: VOD)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss. We placed a strict stop-loss at R145.00. As the trend faltered, our stop was triggered. Although the stock subsequently bounced, enforcing discipline through stop-losses remains critical to long-term risk management.
• Bought at R 147.29 – closed at R 144.50

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

Northam Platinum Holdings (JSE: NPH)

Trade Logic: NPH released full-year results today that met and slightly exceeded market consensus, supported by strong revenue and earnings metrics. Its long-term strategic outlook remains compelling (targeting 15% of global PGM supply by 2030), so we are monitoring the stock closely for a entry, keeping in mind its high sensitivity to underlying PGM basket prices. We would like to see it either pull back to retest the bull flag breakout, or perhaps break the recent highs before we enter.

Thoughts on the week ahead

Given the hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh on Friday, and the subsequent move in the Gold price, we think it is likely we will look for the door on HAR and SSW. We did consider closing them both on Friday as they would have set each other off and we could have gotten out with a net zero loss (to small profit) on them both, however we decided to let the US session play out to see how Gold trades. As at the close on Friday, Gold was down a fair bit and this might be the catalyst for us to close the two gold stocks.

Overall, we continue to look for new trades an opporunities every day and closely monitor and manage the positions we have open.

For now though, we hope that you are happy that the weekly game plan is back.

Economic Data

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The weekly game plan is back

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.