Overnight Moves

Today, we looked at 16 charts; below are only some of them, but first, let’s have a look at the overnight moves. The Rand has weakened noticeably overnight, along with all metals. PGMs are down by a considerable amount, and the headline act for the last two weeks, oil, is down by 2.11%. Volatility rose by 5.7%, and so, we have a sea of red this morning, with our local market in particular down by 1.46%

S&P 500 Index

Last night, the Fed released its FOMC statement, and its comments were more hawkish than expected. This just added momentum to the downward movement that has already been influenced by recent events in the Middle East. We are once again trading near the low of 6,600, which is our weekly support, and if we break past this, then we really are only looking at the next support being around 6,432. Resistance for today, if we see upward movement, will be found at 6,630.

SA Top 40 Index

We do not often look at the ALSI, but it is worth noting today that we have futures closeout coming soon, and this will have a big impact. There are some levels worth keeping an eye on. We have had some movements that caught our eye, the first being volume moving up while price moves down, which we saw yesterday. Second, there were high conviction shorts, and lastly, the price was moving higher, but volume was going lower. We see a lot of open interest in the futures market around 104,000, which is close to where we are this morning. We should see some interesting trades today.

Gold

Gold has seen further selling, which is not something you’d usually see in an environment with risk-off sentiment, since the norm is to hedge into safe havens with gold being the ‘gold standard’. Our level for today will be $4,800 for resistance and $4,700 for support. If we see further downward movement, we can then expect support to be found between $4,500 to $4,600. This will have an impact on our local market this morning since gold and South Africa have a historical connection that we still embrace today through miners like Harmony (HAR) and AngloGold Ashanti (ANG).

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