Last week was a rather difficult one and we had to eat some humble pie. We had come into the week thinking that the party was over for gold, when in fact, the party was over for the people who thought the party was over for gold -_-

Nonetheless, we understand that that is the nature of trading. You can’t always be on the winning side of every trade and sometimes you are just plain wrong. We stay disciplined and follow our rules. We understand that the distrinbution of winning and losing trades are essentially random, and that consitency is the result of discipline and consitency of approach.

That said, the past week proved to be a challenging trading environment. Price action across several sectors diverged from expected macro moves, with select stocks experiencing sharp intraday pullbacks on minimal company-specific news. We attribute much of this localized volatility to the quarterly FTSE/JSE Top 40 index rebalancing, as significant volume execution occurred during the closing auction. While our active book is currently carrying larger unrealised losses, our long-term fundamental and technical conviction in these holdings remains intact. We are comfortable maintaining these positions to allow the underlying trade theses to play out. 

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets this week was the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates by 25 basis points. Additionally, Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh maintained a distinctly hawkish tone, leading markets to price in a high probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike before year-end.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We held tactical short positions across gold and select precious metal equities in anticipation of downside pressure driven by higher interest rates and a hawkish Fed tone. While broad PGM/Gold momentum proved resilient, our trailing stop protected capital to secure a modest gain on the cover.
• Status: Shorted at R328.96 | Closed at R326.27. Realised a minor profit (+0.82%).

Active Open Trades

Nedbank Group Ltd (JSE: NED)

• Trade Logic: NED has completed a clean head-and-shoulders top formation, indicating potential downside expansion. We have initiated a tactical short position expecting the share price to continue its downward trend.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R292.75 with a tight protective stop loss.

BHP Group Ltd (JSE:BHG)

• Trade Logic: BHG is trading between a range of R680,85 and R754,58. Hoping that the bounce in iron ore prices would also help with the move up, our aim is the upper channel of around R754.
• Status: Active | Bought at R701.05. 

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Trade Logic: FSR formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a technical breakout, triggering our initial long entry.
• Status: Active | Initial Entry at R96.00. Position is currently at an unrealised loss following sharp, news-less weakness early in the week. Conviction remains high.
• Position Addition: Following unjustified selling pressure on Monday and Tuesday, we viewed the pullback as overdone and added a secondary half-position at R93.86 to lower our average cost basis.
• Key lesson: If there is a massive jump on a day for a stock (in this instance 10/09/2026), it’s best to take that as a sign from the market telling you to take your money and go. We did not listen last week, and now we are paying the price. Thankfully FSR is holding a key support level, so we can probably trade our way out of trouble here.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (JSE: ANH)

• Trade Logic: Initiated as a defensive hard-currency allocation. Alongside Exxaro, ANH benefits structurally from Rand weakness against the US Dollar.
• Status: Active | Bought at R1,304.49. Experienced a ~2.3% pullback on Friday, but remains above our stop-loss threshold. Holding active.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro carried strong upward momentum into the week and stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar. Following an aggressive two-day pullback after our initial entry near local highs, we added to the position at Thursday’s lows.
• Status: Active | Initial Entry at R204.00. Currently trading at an unrealised loss.
• Position Addition: Added a secondary position at R190.15.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: Carried over from two weeks ago. MRP continues to trade within a tight horizontal range, characterized by alternating gap-up opens and lower closes.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R160.51. Currently at a slight unrealised loss.

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Trade Logic: CFR completed a distinct head-and-shoulders top formation. We initiated a tactical short position targeting further downside expansion.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R3,539.13. Currently showing a modest unrealised profit. Stop loss has been adjusted lower to account for the recent dividend adjustment.
• Key lesson: We took a half position on this stock as we were slightly nervous after having to realise some losses. Always be confident in your trades and take valid setups without hesitation. Having the memory of a goldfish helps too.

Mondi plc (JSE: MNP)

• Trade Logic: Morning call trade recommendation based on a bullish flag-and-pole continuation pattern.
• Status: Active | Bought at R183.00. Price action is gaining momentum and beginning to break higher out of consolidation, but not yet where we want it to be. 

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Trade Logic: Initiated following a breakout above its long-term downward trendline. The stock has successfully retested former resistance as support without breaking down.
• Status: Active | Bought at R264.14. Showing a slight unrealised gain. We remain patient as the price builds structure toward our profit target.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active | Bought at R447.00. Price action remains range-bound. We are monitoring position sizing while remaining positioned for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Trade Logic: Initiated a long position as precious metals demonstrate unexpected underlying resilience despite elevated interest rates and hawkish policy signals.
• Status: Active | Bought at R47.40. Holding for upside continuation.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Growthpoint Properties Ltd (JSE: GRT)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R16.07 | Sold at R15.69.
• Details: Entered near channel support. Downside intraday volatility triggered our stop loss before the stock staged a minor recovery back above key horizontal level.
• Key Lesson: Stop-loss placement could have been cushioned slightly wider to absorb short-term index rebalancing noise. 

Pepkor Holdings Ltd (JSE: PPH)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R19.72 | Sold at R18.95.
• Details: Entered on a bullish reversal candle signal. Downside momentum resumed, triggering our protective stop loss to preserve capital. We were happy to be closed out of this one as it kept declining. 

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Sold at R237.63 | Bought at R238.10.
• Details: Tactical short initiated alongside HAR. Volatility around macro announcements moved against the position, triggering our stop loss just above entry. Exiting proved prudent as PGM spot prices continued to push higher.
• Key Lesson: If it seems like your stop loss is going to be hit at market open, it might be best to remove it and let the volatility pass, before you put it back. This has happened to us a few times now, where we could have potentially made a small profit or let the trade run more. 

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Shorted at $4,318.36 | Stopped out at $4,372.01.
• Details: Positioned short expecting hawkish Federal Reserve messaging to pressure bullion. While post-event commentary was hawkish, intense intra-announcement volatility triggered our stop loss immediately prior to the press conference.
• Key Lesson: Adjust your stop loss accordingly based on high volatility scenarios. Same as with an opening auction, the last thing you want, is for your stop loss to be hit, and the market reverses. 
• Disclaimer: Tactical intra-day scalps on gold during the Fed statement yielded a minor offsetting profit.

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

Woolworths Holdings Ltd (JSE: WHL)

Trade Logic: WHL is set to be removed from the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index in the upcoming quarterly rebalance, with Aspen Pharmacare Holdings (APN) replacing it. While the stock has staged a minor technical bounce over recent sessions, we anticipate near-term downside pressure driven by forced index-tracker selling during the rebalancing auction. We are positioning to capitalize on this temporary index flow dip to establish a long entry at discounted levels. Historically, stocks excluded from the SA Top 40 tend to stage a solid relief rally in the days to weeks following the rebalance event once institutional selling pressure abates.

Thoughts on the week ahead

Well, we took a few blows in the week past, but overall we survived. In the week ahead we will stay focused on our process and trading rules and mostly ignore the news. There is not much on th radar in terms of macro events anyway. The biggest news would probably be Chinese interest rates on Monday, where surprise commentary could move commodities. Other than that there is a Fed speaker on Tuesday, some European PMI’s on Wednesday and a slew of smaller Central Bank rate decisions on Thursday. These could move markets if there are big surpises, although for now, at least from our perspective, there is nothing for us to really watch out for or plan around.

We will be keeping an eye out for what the local market does now that the index rebalancing is done and forced buying and selling it out of the system. Also, gold has been very interesting in the sense that it did not respond to what we thought the most probable reaction would be to higher interest rates from the US last week. Thus, we will be watching if there is a rally in the metal and will likely try hop on board any momenetum that arisises in that space.

And hopefully, no more humble pie.

Economic Data

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.