Herenya Capital Advisors international outlook USD

International outlook

From time to time we will be sharing some of the ideas that our strategists generate in the global market arena. These views and ideas will likely not come every week, although as and when they do, we will share selected ideas here so that you can stay on top what our team is looking out for.

International outlook 14 September 2020

Markets are feeling a little fragile at the moment, thus we’ve not produced many offshore trade ideas over the last few weeks. We do at least have one offshore short-term trade idea today that we think is worth looking at.

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Trade ideas: Gold and silver

Gold and silver have been the talk of the town amongst most professional investors in recent months. With the Fed printing the dollar into oblivion, gold caught a decent bid and became massively overbought, along with its cheaper brother silver. Gold and silver sentiment became extreme and as you know, when the hysteria hits the market, it’s normally the end of the bull run. We have now had a decent retracement and believe that we can start looking at gold shares again for a bounce.

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U.S. commentary

So, in the depths of the COVID gloom there was talk of a depression and stocks dropping another 50% from the lows. There was absolute conviction that you should not be buying. Now, after one of the most insane V-shaped recoveries we have ever seen, most analysts tell you to buy Apple, Tesla and anything tech-related as we have entered a new type of world. And yes, a V-shaped recovery… as most analysts say it isn’t happening, but it’s a clear V – as you see in the chart of the Nasdaq. Anyway, the consensus has swung from “don’t buy” when it was low to “buy everything” here and now? We disagree. We think it’s time to go risk-off.

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Update on the Nasdaq

The Index holding the largest amount of fast money shows that we are still above the famous 20 day moving average. It has now been tested numerous times, as well as, the upward sloping trendline that mirrors the 20 day.

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Nasdaq update

We update our comments on the Nasdaq from earlier this week. We note that there are a few trends that look in danger of being broken.

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Tracking the Nasdaq

Markets remain in a tricky situation. The strongest market currently, the Nasdaq, is the one that we are watching. If the QQQ ETF breaks $250, it’s our triple kill zone.

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Market sentiment 29 June 2020

Another quick look at current market sentiment. We notice that the bulls are getting very excited about precious metals (both the Silver and Gold). At present, that is the only extreme we see out there.

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Market update

A quick update on the market after a historic rally; caution is advised.
We look at Gold miners, Silver, S&P500 and the VIX.

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Trade ideas: AAPL, MMM, BRK/B

The market is starting to feel a little better. It is still to be seen if it has bottomed or not and in truth there is no way of telling right now. Nonetheless, there are some interesting trading opportunities out there. Below we look at three of them.

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Trade ideas: MA and OXY

Panic reigns supreme… but there are opportunities for the brave. We have two trade ideas that are not for the faint hearted. Note though that the strictest risk management is needed and stop losses are vital.

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Be greedy when others are fearful

Let’s get to the point: what’s happening is totally unprecedented… the market has gone up or down more than 4% for 7 consecutive days. That’s a new record. The previous record was 1929. There are a whole number of stats like this that are unprecedented. Below are stats of this week… craziest moves we’ve ever seen.

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Trade idea: SPY

We know that it is a difficult time to buy stocks bearish news and frankly, chaos reigning in markets. However, the market is showing signs of heavy capitulation. We won’t go into all the stats that are showing signs of extremes, but there might be an against the trend trade opportunity here with a high risk:reward profile.

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Trade idea: TLT

TLT is a defensive ETF as it effectively captures the far end of the Treasury curve in a liquid, exchange traded package. Exclusively holding bonds with 20+ years to maturity, TLT is – by design – very sensitive to long-term interest-rate movements. It seems to us that TLT has gone into what we describe as a parabolic blow off top. The most obvious reason for this would be because TLT, as a bond ETF, is viewed as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty. Corona-times are pretty uncertain times we would say. Hence the run to safety.

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