Market Overview
The following is a partial recap of the market analysis shared during today’s morning Discord call.
Today’s market is somewhat calmer, with equities and some metals trading sideways, as all eyes are on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which comes out in the early afternoon. We see oil go up again, following news of Iranian strikes against merchant and military ships. This, in conjunction with Tuesday’s talks about peace deals, puts things firmly back into the old, familiar cycle of peace talks and escalations. Overall, we expect a quiet morning, with a slight risk-on sentiment due to the action in the metal space. And with Monday’s public holiday coming up, we wish you a happy long weekend!
Gold
The metal space is something of a mixed bag compared to yesterday. Gold was able to hold the pinball, which makes a test of the $4300 level a possibility today. That would most likely cause significant gains for gold miners, like AngloGold (ANG) or Harmony (HAR), who also have a significant presence in the JSE Top 40. We would also like to point to GoldFields (GFI) and Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW), as some the best performers yesterday. GoldFields was able to come up just short of the R620 level, which if breached, could put R640 and R660 in the cards. Sibanye also performed very well on both the gold and PGM fronts, and if it goes above R420, it has room to reach R440.
From left to right: Gold, GoldFields (GFI), and Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW).
Metal Space
The rest of the metal space is also interesting, to say the least. Silver is pushing up towards $65, breaking yesterday’s highs with very little in terms of talks or headlines. Knowing silver, it can move quite a lot proportionally, compared to gold. Copper and cobalt exports, meanwhile, were banned by Congo, which could drive up prices, as their usual customers scramble to stockpile the metals before the effects of the ban and new U.S. tariffs really hit the market. All in all, we see gold, copper and silver as the main plays today, while platinum and palladium somewhat lag behind.
Left: silver, right: copper.
Local Stocks
British American Tobacco (BTI)
BTI was upgraded by Standard Bank to buy, with a new target price at £48.50, an increase of 10%.
Pan African Resources (PAN)
Pan African was set to outperform, by RBC, with a target price at £1.55, an increase of 34%. This will be particularly interesting to watch and see the accuracy and impact of the Canadian firm’s research.
Economic Data
The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls at 14:30 are the main catalyst of the day, as their results could have a key role in U.S. interest rate decisions.
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