Nonetheless, we understand that that is the nature of trading. You can’t always be on the winning side of every trade and sometimes you are just plain wrong. We stay disciplined and follow our rules. We understand that the distrinbution of winning and losing trades are essentially random, and that consitency is the result of discipline and consitency of approach.

That said, the past week proved to be a challenging trading environment. Price action across several sectors diverged from expected macro moves, with select stocks experiencing sharp intraday pullbacks on minimal company-specific news. We attribute much of this localized volatility to the quarterly FTSE/JSE Top 40 index rebalancing, as significant volume execution occurred during the closing auction. While our active book is currently carrying larger unrealised losses, our long-term fundamental and technical conviction in these holdings remains intact. We are comfortable maintaining these positions to allow the underlying trade theses to play out. 

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets this week was the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates by 25 basis points. Additionally, Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh maintained a distinctly hawkish tone, leading markets to price in a high probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike before year-end.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We held tactical short positions across gold and select precious metal equities in anticipation of downside pressure driven by higher interest rates and a hawkish Fed tone. While broad PGM/Gold momentum proved resilient, our trailing stop protected capital to secure a modest gain on the cover.
• Status: Shorted at R328.96 | Closed at R326.27. Realised a minor profit (+0.82%).

Active Open Trades

Nedbank Group Ltd (JSE: NED)

• Trade Logic: NED has completed a clean head-and-shoulders top formation, indicating potential downside expansion. We have initiated a tactical short position expecting the share price to continue its downward trend.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R292.75 with a tight protective stop loss.

BHP Group Ltd (JSE:BHG)

• Trade Logic: BHG is trading between a range of R680,85 and R754,58. Hoping that the bounce in iron ore prices would also help with the move up, our aim is the upper channel of around R754.
• Status: Active | Bought at R701.05. 

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Trade Logic: FSR formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a technical breakout, triggering our initial long entry.
• Status: Active | Initial Entry at R96.00. Position is currently at an unrealised loss following sharp, news-less weakness early in the week. Conviction remains high.
• Position Addition: Following unjustified selling pressure on Monday and Tuesday, we viewed the pullback as overdone and added a secondary half-position at R93.86 to lower our average cost basis.
• Key lesson: If there is a massive jump on a day for a stock (in this instance 10/09/2026), it’s best to take that as a sign from the market telling you to take your money and go. We did not listen last week, and now we are paying the price. Thankfully FSR is holding a key support level, so we can probably trade our way out of trouble here.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (JSE: ANH)

• Trade Logic: Initiated as a defensive hard-currency allocation. Alongside Exxaro, ANH benefits structurally from Rand weakness against the US Dollar.
• Status: Active | Bought at R1,304.49. Experienced a ~2.3% pullback on Friday, but remains above our stop-loss threshold. Holding active.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro carried strong upward momentum into the week and stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar. Following an aggressive two-day pullback after our initial entry near local highs, we added to the position at Thursday’s lows.
• Status: Active | Initial Entry at R204.00. Currently trading at an unrealised loss.
• Position Addition: Added a secondary position at R190.15.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: Carried over from two weeks ago. MRP continues to trade within a tight horizontal range, characterized by alternating gap-up opens and lower closes.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R160.51. Currently at a slight unrealised loss.

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Trade Logic: CFR completed a distinct head-and-shoulders top formation. We initiated a tactical short position targeting further downside expansion.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R3,539.13. Currently showing a modest unrealised profit. Stop loss has been adjusted lower to account for the recent dividend adjustment.
• Key lesson: We took a half position on this stock as we were slightly nervous after having to realise some losses. Always be confident in your trades and take valid setups without hesitation. Having the memory of a goldfish helps too.

Mondi plc (JSE: MNP)

• Trade Logic: Morning call trade recommendation based on a bullish flag-and-pole continuation pattern.
• Status: Active | Bought at R183.00. Price action is gaining momentum and beginning to break higher out of consolidation, but not yet where we want it to be. 

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Trade Logic: Initiated following a breakout above its long-term downward trendline. The stock has successfully retested former resistance as support without breaking down.
• Status: Active | Bought at R264.14. Showing a slight unrealised gain. We remain patient as the price builds structure toward our profit target.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active | Bought at R447.00. Price action remains range-bound. We are monitoring position sizing while remaining positioned for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Trade Logic: Initiated a long position as precious metals demonstrate unexpected underlying resilience despite elevated interest rates and hawkish policy signals.
• Status: Active | Bought at R47.40. Holding for upside continuation.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Growthpoint Properties Ltd (JSE: GRT)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R16.07 | Sold at R15.69.
• Details: Entered near channel support. Downside intraday volatility triggered our stop loss before the stock staged a minor recovery back above key horizontal level.
• Key Lesson: Stop-loss placement could have been cushioned slightly wider to absorb short-term index rebalancing noise. 

Pepkor Holdings Ltd (JSE: PPH)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R19.72 | Sold at R18.95.
• Details: Entered on a bullish reversal candle signal. Downside momentum resumed, triggering our protective stop loss to preserve capital. We were happy to be closed out of this one as it kept declining. 

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Sold at R237.63 | Bought at R238.10.
• Details: Tactical short initiated alongside HAR. Volatility around macro announcements moved against the position, triggering our stop loss just above entry. Exiting proved prudent as PGM spot prices continued to push higher.
• Key Lesson: If it seems like your stop loss is going to be hit at market open, it might be best to remove it and let the volatility pass, before you put it back. This has happened to us a few times now, where we could have potentially made a small profit or let the trade run more. 

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Shorted at $4,318.36 | Stopped out at $4,372.01.
• Details: Positioned short expecting hawkish Federal Reserve messaging to pressure bullion. While post-event commentary was hawkish, intense intra-announcement volatility triggered our stop loss immediately prior to the press conference.
• Key Lesson: Adjust your stop loss accordingly based on high volatility scenarios. Same as with an opening auction, the last thing you want, is for your stop loss to be hit, and the market reverses. 
• Disclaimer: Tactical intra-day scalps on gold during the Fed statement yielded a minor offsetting profit.

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

Woolworths Holdings Ltd (JSE: WHL)

Trade Logic: WHL is set to be removed from the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index in the upcoming quarterly rebalance, with Aspen Pharmacare Holdings (APN) replacing it. While the stock has staged a minor technical bounce over recent sessions, we anticipate near-term downside pressure driven by forced index-tracker selling during the rebalancing auction. We are positioning to capitalize on this temporary index flow dip to establish a long entry at discounted levels. Historically, stocks excluded from the SA Top 40 tend to stage a solid relief rally in the days to weeks following the rebalance event once institutional selling pressure abates.

Thoughts on the week ahead

Well, we took a few blows in the week past, but overall we survived. In the week ahead we will stay focused on our process and trading rules and mostly ignore the news. There is not much on th radar in terms of macro events anyway. The biggest news would probably be Chinese interest rates on Monday, where surprise commentary could move commodities. Other than that there is a Fed speaker on Tuesday, some European PMI’s on Wednesday and a slew of smaller Central Bank rate decisions on Thursday. These could move markets if there are big surpises, although for now, at least from our perspective, there is nothing for us to really watch out for or plan around.

We will be keeping an eye out for what the local market does now that the index rebalancing is done and forced buying and selling it out of the system. Also, gold has been very interesting in the sense that it did not respond to what we thought the most probable reaction would be to higher interest rates from the US last week. Thus, we will be watching if there is a rally in the metal and will likely try hop on board any momenetum that arisises in that space.

And hopefully, no more humble pie.

Economic Data

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Humble Pie appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Like any trading experience though, it was not all sunshine and roses. So, let’s look at what happened last week.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets this week was the release of US PPI and CPI inflation figures. Currently, markets continue to price in the risk of higher interest rates, which has weighed on precious metals; gold pulled back slightly after forming a distinct Head and Shoulders technical pattern but rallied today with the CPI data coming in as expected. This could mean that the party is over for Gold.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL)

• Trade Logic: Our strongest performer since launching the weekly recap series. We entered this trade on 26 August as the stock traded near previous swing lows (lowest print of R179.45). Following Wednesday’s sharp rally driven by higher crude oil prices, we elected to lock in gains and secure the profit.
• Status: Bought at R180.00 | Closed at R227.00 (9 Sept). Delivered a +26.1% total return.

Standard Bank Group Ltd (JSE: SBK)

• Trade Logic: Standard Bank was trading within a defined range between R313.00 and R338.00. We initiated a long position near channel support targeting a move toward the upper boundary. Our trailing stop was triggered on the ex-dividend date as the share price adjusted lower; however, the dividend yield offset the capital price movement to secure a positive net trade return.
• Status: Bought at R315.39 | Closed at R309.45 (9 Sept). Dividend of R9.02, so our net proceeds was R3.08 per share.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR) — Half Position

• Trade Logic: Carried over from last week. As gold momentum began to stall ahead of key US inflation prints (CPI/PPI), we locked in a partial profit on half the position to manage event risk.
• Status: Bought at R324.00 | Closed at R330.00 (9 Sept). Realized a minor profit (+1.85%).

Active Open Trades

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Trade Logic: FSR formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a technical breakout, triggering our long entry.
• Status: Active | Bought at R96.00. Position is currently in a slight profit. Despite intra-day volatility following earnings, the technical structure remains intact. Key lesson here is having your take profit on the account, as this jumped to our target, but then dropped down again very quickly. 
• Key Lesson: We were offered at R102.00 on Thursday and honestly we were a bit gready. We could have sold out at R100.00 when price was trading around there, although we held out for more. Sometimes, when you get a large move in a short period, it’s better to just take the money. We’re now looking to sell half the position at R100.00 and half at R102.00.

Growthpoint Properties Ltd (JSE: GRT)

• Trade Logic: The R15.75 level established solid horizontal support. Following consecutive bullish retests over past sessions, we entered long with a favorable risk-reward setup.
• Status: Active | Bought at R16.07. Currently showing a slight loss with a profit target set at R17.50.

Pepkor Holdings Ltd (JSE: PPH)

• Trade Logic: Carried over from last week’s watchlist. Despite recent price pullbacks, declining selling volume suggests downside momentum is exhausting, supporting a potential mean-reversion bounce.
• Status: Active | Bought at R19.72. Currently trading at a slight unrealized loss.
• Key Lesson: We took this trade with only half size as it is not at very liquid stock. That will be helpful if this trade stops out as it will do much to limit out loss.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro continues its strong upward momentum, benefiting from Rand weakness as a bulk coal exporter. Higher energy demand in Europe ahead of winter, coupled with drought conditions impacting regional supply, provides macro support.
• Status: Active | Bought at R204.00. Currently trading at a profit.
• Key Lesson: We had to chase here a little as we were bid a little too low. Our original bid was missed by literally 1 cent, so we had to increase our bid the next day to R204.00 to get picked up. This skewed our risk-reward a little, although we do still believe we are in the right trade here.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: Carried over from last week. MRP bounced marginally off recent lows but remains constrained within a broader downward trend. Position is held with tight stop-loss parameters.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R160.51. Slight loss, but close to breakeven. 

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Trade Logic: CFR completed a distinct head-and-shoulders top formation. We initiated a tactical short position expecting further downside expansion.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R3,539.13. Showing a small profit.
• Key Lesson: We entered with half size here as we were chasing a little and are looking to add to this trade if there is a bounce for us to add into. That said, if no bounce comes, we are happy to let our half sized trade move to target.

Mondi Plc (JSE: MNP)

• Trade Logic: Morning call trade recommendation based on a bullish flag-and-pole continuation pattern.
• Status: Active | Bought at R183.00. Currently at an unrealized loss; trade thesis remains active.

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Trade Logic: Initiated last week following a breakout above its downward trendline. The stock has successfully retested the former trendline as support without breaking back down.
• Status: Active | Bought at R264.14. Rallied on Friday after a very bad day on Thursday (retest of break-out), which means we are in a slight profit. 

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active | Bought at R447.00. Price action remains range-bound. We are monitoring position sizing while remaining positioning for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR) 

• Trade Logic: With CPI data coming out as expected, gold dipped down significantly and we saw an opportunity to short some mining stocks. 
• Status: Active | Shorted at R328.96. Running at a slight loss due to gold price shooting up. However, we expect this to come down again after the gold price has eased. 

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Trade Logic: Same idea as with Harmony as we wanted to short platinum stocks as well. 
• Status: Active | Shorted at R237.63. Running at a slight loss due to gold price shooting up. However, we expect this to come down again after the gold price has eased. 

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

British American Tobacco plc (JSE: BTI)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R913.15 | Sold at R879.57.
• Details: Despite strong long-term fundamental conviction, price action failed to confirm our thesis. We exited the position to redeploy capital into higher-conviction setups.
• Key Lesson: It bounced a little bit after we closed, but we are glad to be out. This trade was a bit of a thorn in our side for a few weeks, so happy to free up margin for other opportunities.

MTN Group Ltd (JSE: MTN)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R205.00 | Sold at R195.52.
• Details: Initiated on a double-bottom pattern setup. Downside volatility triggered our stop loss before a minor recovery materialized.
• Key Lesson: This one feels personal… it happens. We put our stop in the middle of the range (double bottom range) as is the rule with trading double bottom formations. The stock dipped just below the range mid-point, triggering out stop and leaving us behind. Our lesson here is not a new one… always put your stop just a little under the key level to give it some space to breathe. Lesson learned. We move on.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR) — Remaining Half

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Bought at R329.99 | Sold at R326.47.
• Details: Given heightened volatility surrounding US inflation data releases (CPI/PPI), we exited the remaining half to eliminate overnight gap risk.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Bought at R246.00 | Sold at R238.56.
• Details: Closed out ahead of major US macro data prints to reduce overall PGM sector risk exposure.

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (JSE: CPI)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R4,654.00 | Stopped out at R4,514.06.
• Details: Entered on a flag-and-pole continuation pattern. An unexpected market reaction to a corporate trading statement prompted a large and quick drop, triggering our stop loss..

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

SPAR Group Ltd (JSE: SPP)

Trade Logic: SPAR has experienced a challenging year, with the share price remaining in a sustained downward trend, making it difficult to pinpoint a clear turnaround level. However, a substantial off-book block trade of 9 million shares was executed on Wednesday, suggesting potential institutional accumulation. While this does not signal an immediate buy trigger, it has piqued our interest, particularly given the strong price action observed yesterday. We are monitoring the stock closely for potential confirmation setups.

Thoughts on the week ahead

The possibility of an interest rate hike in the very near future has become a rather large theme in recent weeks. CPI data came in hot and markets are expecting a 90% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday. At present the relationship between Gold, Bonds and Interest rates is inverted to what it has been historically, meaning that when the market expects or sees higher interest rates, investors are favouring Bonds over Gold. We think that if the very high likelyhood of higher interest rates does in fact materialise, we could see a rather sharp negative reaction from Gold and other precious metals, hence our now short positions on HAR and IMP.

We also note a Head and Shoulders pattern on Gold.

Perhaps the party is over for the Gold and other precious metals stocks. We think this will be the dominant theme next week.

Economic Data

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Party is over for Gold appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

It has been a challenging week on the trading desk. Markets diverged from standard fundamentals, with weak corporate outlooks paradoxically triggering short-squeeze rallies – most notably in Impala Platinum. To sum it up, the whipsaw rodeo was in town and we got whipsawed good and proper!

While closed positions leaned toward losses this week, our strict risk management rules prevented significant drawdown. By honoring our stop-losses, we kept overall capital losses minor and manageable.

Trading requires continuous adaptation; we refine our execution strategy daily to cut underperformers quickly, protect capital, and focus heavily on scaling our winning setups. Also, weeks like the one just past serve as good reminders to stick to your trading rules, honour your stop-losses and stay focused on the process. The outcome of any given edge is ultimately random, although through consistentcy of approach – or by consistently applying your rules – consitency is of outcome is created.

That said, we did make some mistakes as the whipswar rodeo carried us away… let’s look at the trades we did last week.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets on Friday was the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. Expectations were for an increase of 55k jobs, but the data printed significantly stronger at 162k. This robust figure reinforces the argument for higher-for-longer interest rates (or a potential rate hike), triggering a brief pullback across gold and the broader precious metals complex.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Thungela Resources Ltd (JSE: TGA)

• Trade Logic: We have held this trade for several weeks, and it has been one of our strongest performers. To lock in gains, we trailed our stop-loss higher. While this triggered a disciplined profit-take on Tuesday, it secured an excellent return.
• Status: Bought at R113.24 | Closed at R124.65 (1 Sept). Though the stock has continued its upward momentum, enforcing trailing stops remains core to our risk discipline.
• Key lesson: We trailed our stop loss to aggressively here. Prior to closing this we had fallen victim to the whipsaw rodeo, so we were eager to protect our capital and moved our stop too tight. When the volatility of Tuesday came around, we were closed out. We still banked a decent winner, but we could have done better to ride our winners for longer.

Active Open Trades

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Trade Logic: FSR formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a breakout yesterday, triggering our long entry.
• Status: Active | Bought at R96.00. Slight profit.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Trade Logic: IMP reported disappointing earnings yet counter-intuitively rallied. After being stopped out of our short position, we recognized that the market strength signaled a bullish trend reversal, so we flipped our bias and entered a long position.
• Status: Active | Bought at R246.00. Currently facing temporary headwinds following the hot Non-Farm Payrolls print and the subsequent sell-off across precious metals.
• Key lesson: Sometimes you just get trades wrong. Stop-losses are there to save you. It’s ok to change your mind.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We entered a long position as broad-based buying returned to the mining sector alongside rising spot gold prices. There is bullish divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator and Price, and both the 200 day moving average and support line coincide and held.
• Status: Active | Bought at R329.99 and R324.00 (average price of R 326.99). Facing similar macro headwinds as our IMP position above. On a positive note, gold appears to be stabilizing after the initial decline.
• Key lesson: Here the ‘ol whipsaw rodeo rode us fairly hard as well. We took a bigger loss than we like to take (more details on that trade below) by not sticking to our stop rules. Yes, we all make these same mistakes. It was a good reminder that we need to respect our stop-losses and manage risk before anything else. Nonetheless, we tried to clear the bias and take a new validated technical entry when it presented itself. Our lesson above all is ‘stop-losses save lives’… or the whipsaw rodeo will get ya!

British American Tobacco PLC (JSE: BTI)

• Trade Logic: We have held this position for some time, buying on the thesis that the stock had hit technical support and was overdue for a mean-reversion rebound.
• Status: Active. We entered around R913.00 and are currently sitting at a minor paper loss, but the setup remains intact. We are closely monitoring price action and considering exiting if bullish momentum does not materialise shortly.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: The retail sector remains under pressure. With MRP breaking down to new local lows, we initiated a short position.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R160.51. The stock has experienced a minor counter-trend bounce, which is expected within a broader downtrend. As long as previous swing highs hold, the bearish setup remains active.

Standard Bank Group Ltd (JSE: SBK)

• Trade Logic: SBK was trading sideways, presenting a low-risk entry near support. We bought the lows targeting a move back toward R337.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R315.39. Currently showing a modest profit as we wait for further upside momentum.

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL)

• Trade Logic: Brent crude has been volatile, but we identified key historical support near R180.00 and executed via a limit order.
• Status: Active. Bought at R180.00. Sasol has had a strong week, though it is currently consolidating just below the psychological R200.00 mark.

MTN Group Ltd (JSE: MTN)

• Trade Logic: MTN printed a double-bottom reversal pattern, opening a pathway toward our structural target near R220.00.
• Status: Active | Bought at R205.00. Experiencing short-term friction today, but position structure remains intact.
• Key lesson: We chased here a little by buying at the open instead of placing a limit order lower down. Our thinking was that it would break higher without looking back, and look back it did. So we’re on the whipsaw rodeo here a little, although we are still within our risk parameters. We just need to admit defeat and take the loss if it turns out that our stop-loss is triggered. Let’s see how this goes.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet remains significantly undervalued relative to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R 447.00. Price action remains range-bound, but we are holding with our stop-loss set at R 418.51.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Average Entry Price R48.09 | Sold at R47.85.
• Details: Given the broad-based weakness in precious metals, we closed the trade on Monday to mitigate risk ahead of Tuesday’s earnings release. While the market digested the weak earnings and rallied Wednesday, cutting exposure early aligned with our risk parameters.
• Key lesson: It’s a pity to have closed our last positions here at a small loss, specially after we had banked a few good winners on it on the way here. We had taken some body blows and were keen to cut risk before it got out of hand. In retrospect we could have given the trade some more breathing room. Our stop was too tight.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR – Tactical Trade)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Average price of R346.16 | Sold at R315.00.
• Details: This was a hard lesson for us as we do not like to take losses these big. We made the rookie mistake of moving our stop loss slightly, thinking we could catch a bounce back. The irony here is that later on, we had what we consider a validated setup and once again too a long position.
• Key lesson: Take the stop-loss early. Do not wait for anything. Once your stop-loss trigers, take it, or it’s the whipsaw rodeo for you (or the gulag, honestly not sure which is worse at this stage)! If we had cut our initial position earlier, we would be in a more comfortable position now. Alas, so we learn. We will do better next time.

Naspers Ltd (JSE: NPN)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R790.99 | Sold at R769.96.
• Details: NPN continued to trend lower without showing signs of structural reversal and we decided to cut the trade early. Our stop-loss was a R740.00, but once it breached R770.00 on the 1st of September, we decided to exit the trade and focus on higher-conviction setups.

Absa Group Ltd (JSE: ABG)

• Status: Closed at break-even/minor gain | Bought at R226.59 | Sold at R226.70.
• Details: Despite reporting strong financial results, price action stalled into range-bound consolidation, prompting us to exit and preserve capital.
• Key lesson: We cut this trade at break-even as we had taken some pain prior to it and didn’t want to let a winner turn red. In retrospect we should have stuck to our intial stop-loss strategy and we would have still been in this trade. The whipsaw rodeo claims another victim.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP – Prior Position)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Shorted at R227.06 | Stopped out at R245.50.
• Details: Initiated a short following bleak full-year guidance and rising global rate expectations. The market absorbed the news positively and squeezed higher, triggering our risk stop.

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

Northam Platinum Holdings (JSE: NPH)

• Trade Logic: NPH released full-year results today that met and slightly exceeded market consensus, supported by strong revenue and earnings metrics. Its long-term strategic outlook remains compelling (targeting 15% of global PGM supply by 2030), so we are monitoring the stock closely for a entry, keeping in mind its high sensitivity to underlying PGM basket prices. We would like to see it either pull back to retest the bull flag breakout, or perhaps break the 200 day moving average before we enter.

Pepkor Holdings Ltd (JSE: PPH)

• Trade Logic: PPH has experienced prolonged selling pressure over recent months. Yesterday printed a strong bullish engulfing candle on high volume, followed by a +1% follow-through on Friday. We are tracking the stock for confirmation that the broader downtrend has exhausted. We also note a Hammer candle formation on a significant support level on the weekly chart below.

Exxaro Resources  (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: EXX has reached the higher end of its channel and is slightly underneath the 200 Daily Moving Average. This stock is leaning towards a possible breakout to the upside which will signal a buy.  

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Trade Logic: DSY has been in a downtrend and seems to have broken this trend along with closing above the 50-day moving average and confirming a buy signal.

Thoughts on the week ahead

It was a tough week and we are glad it’s behind us. Next week we start fresh and we have some decent trade setups forming. There are some risk events on the horizon, notably US CPI data on Tuesday which could materially impact risk sentiment (and heavily influence gold prices), so we will watch that data print carefully. Other than that, we remind ourselves to plan the trades and trade the plans. Risk management and an opportunistic mindset are key and we aim to realy focus on these in the coming week.

Also, we’d like to avoid the whipsaw rodeo by all means necessary. So we will be critically cold with our stop-losses. There is no excuse.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Whipsaw rodeo appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

We are looking for ways to keep delivering morning call snippets, however we would like to try a new format to communicate some of our ideas and trading results to you, dear reader. Keeping that in mind, this format might change a little as today’s post is only the first one and we will keep improving on it as time goes by.

So, without further ado, let’s get into it!

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets and boosting our overall performance this week was core PCE inflation data coming in slightly above expectations. On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. While no firm policy commitments were made, his overall tone was notably hawkish.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (JSE: APN)

• Trade Logic: We established a long position on 21 August following the broader sentiment surge in global pharma (sparked by Moderna’s record trial results earlier in the week). Following an interim trading update today, the stock experienced brief volatility before stabilizing.
• Status: Bought at R 148.95 – Closed at R 154.65 on 26 August. Looking back, we could have held it for another day given its continued upward momentum, but we are happy to lock in the profit on this one.

Truworths International Ltd (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Truworths released its earnings yesterday, and after reviewing the report, we noted soft operational numbers. Consequently, we executed a tactical short position. Admittedly, this was a high-risk trade, but it paid off quickly.
• Status: Sold short at R 49.85 – Closed at R 47.00. We continuously lowered our trailing stop-loss to protect gains, successfully locking in a solid profit.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We already have a Harmony positions, but after Harmony suffered a severe sell-off on Thursday, dropping nearly 10% intraday, we decided to add to our trade. We bought at R 325.00 as we felt confident that HAR was oversold at those levels.
• Status: Bought at R 325.00 – Closed at R 339.00 for a quick R 14 intraday move. This allowed us to capture profits to offset our core position, reducing our new average price on our core position to R 346.16.

Active Open Trades

Thungela Resources (JSE: TGA)

• Trade Logic: TGA was a trade idea given the current drought in Europe and the fact that Europe are not able to use Hydro or nuclear electricity anymore. We then thought to buy TGA with the thought that Coal prices would increase. 
• Status: Active (Increased Exposure). Bought at R97.53, sold half our position at an average price at R118.10. Increased our position size on Monday by buying more at R121.10.

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Trade Logic: SSW hit a new local peak on Tuesday. Anticipating a run toward R52.00, we entered at the open around R43.00, benefiting from U.S. Treasury announcements, dollar weakness, and rising PGM and gold prices.
• Status: Active (Increased Exposure). Bought at R 43.00 on the 18th – Closed half at R 51.26 on the 21st. We bought more on the 24th at R 50.65.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We entered a long position following Harmony’s trading statement last week.
• Status: Active. After some active trading during last week, our average price is now R 346.16. This core trade has faced headwinds. However, our tactical intraday trade allowed us to recoup some capital, and we continue to hold the core position for now.

British American Tobacco PLC (JSE: BTI)

• Trade Logic: We believe the stock has hit strong technical support and are positioning for a rebound.
• Status: Active. We entered at R 913.00 and are currently sitting at a minor paper loss, but the setup remains intact.

Absa Group Ltd (JSE: ABG)

• Trade Logic: Absa reported earnings on Tuesday featuring strong full-year profitability; however, the market reacted with a brief sell-off. We bought shortly after the open around R 226.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 226.59. We remain in the trade and are currently sitting in a small profit.

Standard Bank Group Ltd (JSE: SBK)

• Trade Logic: SBK was trading sideways, presenting a low-risk entry near support. We bought the lows targeting a move back toward R 337.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 315.39. Currently showing a modest profit as we wait for further upside momentum.

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL)

• Trade Logic: Brent crude has been volatile, but we identified key historical support near R 180.00 and executed via a limit order.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 180.00. Sasol had a very strong session on Friday, gaining 5.34%.

Naspers Ltd (JSE: NPN)

• Trade Logic: Naspers (alongside Tencent) continues to consolidate sideways within a broader uptrend. We are positioned for an upside breakout.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 790.99. Stop-loss maintained at R 740.00.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet remains significantly undervalued relative to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R 447.00. Price action has been sluggish, but we are holding with our stop-loss set at R 418.51.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Valterra Platinum Ltd (JSE: VAL)

• Status: Closed at a loss. VAL had a rough week following market speculation that it was the undisclosed bidder in an approach to NPH. The stock fell 5.3% on rumor, and once confirmed that VAL was indeed the interested party, we exited the trade to mitigate potential further downside.
• Bought at R 1475.97 – closed at R 1405.00. 

Vodacom Group Ltd (JSE: VOD)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss. We placed a strict stop-loss at R145.00. As the trend faltered, our stop was triggered. Although the stock subsequently bounced, enforcing discipline through stop-losses remains critical to long-term risk management.
• Bought at R 147.29 – closed at R 144.50

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

Northam Platinum Holdings (JSE: NPH)

Trade Logic: NPH released full-year results today that met and slightly exceeded market consensus, supported by strong revenue and earnings metrics. Its long-term strategic outlook remains compelling (targeting 15% of global PGM supply by 2030), so we are monitoring the stock closely for a entry, keeping in mind its high sensitivity to underlying PGM basket prices. We would like to see it either pull back to retest the bull flag breakout, or perhaps break the recent highs before we enter.

Thoughts on the week ahead

Given the hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh on Friday, and the subsequent move in the Gold price, we think it is likely we will look for the door on HAR and SSW. We did consider closing them both on Friday as they would have set each other off and we could have gotten out with a net zero loss (to small profit) on them both, however we decided to let the US session play out to see how Gold trades. As at the close on Friday, Gold was down a fair bit and this might be the catalyst for us to close the two gold stocks.

Overall, we continue to look for new trades an opporunities every day and closely monitor and manage the positions we have open.

For now though, we hope that you are happy that the weekly game plan is back.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Weekly Game Plan is back! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

The following is a partial recap of the market analysis shared during today’s morning Discord call.

Today’s opening market is mostly flat or in the red, with a marginally weaker Rand. We expect yesterday’s earnings from NVIDIA (NVDA) to play a significant role today. As is typical with NVIDIA, the earnings’ effect on its stock tends to show on the day after, and it remains to be seen where it goes from here. Otherwise, we expect a quiet morning, driven by news from the Middle East. And if you’re a day trader, we recommend keeping an eye out for spikes in oil trade volume.

Softwares

The software sector mostly saw sells at the beginning of yesterday’s session, but managed to close the day in the green. Interestingly, we saw both software and semiconductors grow yesterday, which is rather unusual, as they tend to move in opposite directions. As for specific stocks, we recommend keeping an eye on Intuit (INTU). It saw a massive drop following yesterday’s earnings, and it’s currently trading below swing lows. It’s worth putting on the day’s watchlist for whether it sees dip-buying or further drops.

Tencent (700)

Tencent starts the day with a 3.3% drop due to no particular headline, which will likely pressure Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX). It’s worth noting that the latter two have held up surprisingly well, despite Tencent’s performance, but are expected to start the day under pressure regardless.

Local Stocks

Harmony Gold (HAR)

Harmony traded well on both sides of the pond yesterday, and among the gold miners, we see it as the best option. We speculate that reaching the R290. threshold could propel it up to the R300. Mark, where it’s likely to see further levels of growth.

Sappi Ltd (SAP)

Sappi saw a significant drop yesterday, following a 46% downgrade by J.P. Morgan. The company is at an all-time low now, and it’s worth keeping an eye on to see if it makes a comeback.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 21/05/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Sasol (SOL)

We here at Herenya have looked at Sasol extensively and have held positions on the stock for some time, but we think the time has come to sell. Sasol has seen phenomenal gains since the start of the unfortunate conflict in the Middle East, and those gains are simply due to the supply and demand of oil, which has seen global disruptions. With talks of a potential ceasefire looming, which will drive the oil price down, we believe it is time for us to take profit. Currently, we still think Sasol will trend higher, and are looking for a goal price of R225, but are comfortable with the profit we are seeing.

Rotating Into Precious Metals

During the course of this war, we shifted our positions to try to stay safe by looking at offshore energy markets like gas and coal. Now, with talks of negotiations and a potential ceasefire, we are looking to rotate back into resources like platinum and gold, which were doing well before the war, but have since fallen quite a bit. We are looking forward to a time when the markets bounce and rally once things start cooling off. Some might call this brave; this is, in reality, a tactical trade, since we are seeing some reports of US troop movements and deployments to the surrounding Gulf as “strategically placed forces”, but we find the fact that there are even talks supposedly happening reassuring. We know President Donald Trump wants to find a quick resolution to this war to protect his approval rating, which is declining rapidly as this war goes on. We will be looking at Valterra Platinum, AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold Mining Company, Impala Platinum Holdings, and Sibanye Stillwater.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community, where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Selling Sasol, buying gold and PGM miners appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Harmony (HAR) & Anglogold (ANG)

We are looking at taking a relatively medium-term position trade where we long on Harmony Gold (HAR) and short on Anglogold Ashanti (ANG), and essentially, this is not a play on the price of gold or anything of the sort. This is rather a look at the ratio of correlation between Harmony and Anglo, and how that has shifted apart over time. We are taking a trade based on the assumption that the correlation will return to normal. We are taking this trade with equal exposure on both sides since there is a close relationship between these two. At the beginning of the year, these two instruments were very much in line, and now they have drifted apart. Our idea is that these two will come back together again at some point, as they have done in the past.

Raubex (RBX)

Is a construction business that is supported by Sanral-related work, and recently the Australian segment has weighed on earnings. We are looking at a market that is already skittish and has just received some less-than-pleasing news, resulting in the extraordinary move you see in the chart. In the last two weeks, we have seen a consistent downward movement of about near 20% in total. We think this is a little exaggerated, and from other technical points, we see this as a good opportunity for a long trade. We see the possibility for this chart to go back to R52 if not higher, so now would be a good time to enter with a stop loss set at R46.50. Before recent world events, we saw a strong upward momentum, and we believe that with markets stabilising, we will most likely see that trend start once again.

Naspers (NPN)

South Africa has recently been more interested in Chinese technology than its American counterparts, and we have noticed this. We recently bought into KWEB, which is the Chinese Tech ETF, and another way to get exposure to eastern tech is through Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX). Tencent (700) recently came out with an announcement for an AI assistant, which was received well by the market. The performance of Tencent has a direct influence on the performance of Napers and Prosus through the holdings each company has. Naspers is a strong company, and it has been under undue pressure for some time. We have already seen a change of momentum recently, and it is on track to meet the 200 Day moving average. We see this as a low-risk trade. Another thing to consider is that as the Middle East conflict continues, we see more people move away from US-based tech, which is facing uncertainty and moving towards more stable competitors, the biggest being China, so this all bodes well for Naspers.

Watch the episode here:

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Trade of The Week – 17 March 2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Today, we looked at 12 charts; below are only some of them, but first, let’s have a look at the overnight moves. This morning, things are looking a little calmer, especially given the context of the last week we have had. We have not had much change overnight besides VIX, so we expect today to be another quiet session.

S&P 500 Index

Yesterday was a relatively quiet sideways session where we managed to hold the level of support at 6,750, as well as touch the high of 6,850, but we were unable to hold as the value retreated. If we see upward movement today, we hope to reach that level of 6,850 and maybe even go to 6,880, with our level of support for today is 6,750. If we manage to breach and hold above these resistance levels today, then we could be looking at an opportunity to retest 6,900.

IShares Expanded Tech-Software (IGV)

We have been watching this one for a while, and we were very happy with the performance it was maintaining, but we have found some resistance around $88. IGV has been moving sideways since last Thursday, but with yesterday’s pullback, we could be looking at another opportunity. We would not suggest buying in currently, but maybe instead at $80 with a stop-loss at or around $79 depending on your risk. The level of support can be found at our previous swing low of $76

Harmony Gold Mining (HAR)

Harmony came out with earnings today and had already come out with a trading statement; the dividends do look like a bit of a beat when compared to what the consensus was. Other than that, the rest performed pretty much as expected, with gold production looking a little disappointing according to the trading statement, but they did miss on revenue. All in all, today will not be an easy day for Harmony, and we need to see how golds perform today, as they did not do too well in the previous session. Support can be found at around R300, and if we dip below that, then expect further movement to the downside. If we do manage to regain, we hope to see it reach R330, as only then will we be confident in seeing further gains from Harmony.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 11/03/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Twitter chart requests

Harmony Gold Mining (HAR)

HAR seems to be forming a fairly solid base. We’d have to wait until the 200 day moving average (green) is broken before we can confidently say that the trend has once against turned upward. For now though, the rounding bottom seems to be forming well with the R62.40 zone being the key support. Overall we are bullish on gold stocks in the short-to-medium-term. We hold ANG in the long-term portfolios, although HAR is looking fairly decent for a smallish long position with the view of the trend potentially changing and HAR headed back to previous highs.

Iron Ore Futures (FEF1!)

Iron Ore has been on a bit of a tear lately. The last two days of last week saw it pull back rather violently from the recent highs. For now we don’t really see a tradeable setup here, unless FEF1! falls into that support zone (indicated by the blue circle). Overall, commodities are rallying on the back of the post-pandemic (printer driven) recovery. What is important to note here is that the primary driver for FEF1! demand is Chinese manufacturing and construction. China seems to be on a good footing at present and in our view, are likely to continue to recover (and grow) faster than the rest of the world. If you can get long between the 50 day and 89 day moving average, you might be in for a decent trend following swing trade.

Kumba Iron Ore (KIO)

KIO can be tricky, although it seems to have broken out of, retested and held the range. You could take a long here with a tight stop (below Friday’s lows). Should the R680 level fail, the play would be to try get long again around the R550 mark.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Weekly chart.
Things got a little choppy last week, but the VIX managed to end the week below 20 (again). It seems that ‘things are returning to normal’. Lower volatility, unlimited ink in the printer, post-pandemic economic recovery… we hate to say it, but things are looking fairly good right now.

Naspers (NPN)

NPN has gone a little far here in our view. We can see that in recent history, whenever it has gotten this far below the longer-term (200 day) moving averages, while making exhaustion gaps, it has provided good entries for long positions.
Disclaimer: we used this opportunity to add NPN to long-term equity accounts.

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

DCP has had a great run. We would not be shorting it here, although we would definitely be taking some profits off the table.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

SSW made a nice little hammed right below a key support zone. Momentum wise it is in the middle of nowhere, but a small long with a stop below Thursday’s low could be a good trade here.

Standard Bank (SBK)

4 hour chart.
We are watching the inverse head and shoulders formation here and are currently long on CFD. Short-term trade target would be the 200 day moving average, with a trailing stop once reached. Hard stop below the right shoulder.
Disclaimer: we added SBK to long-term equity accounts last week.

Grindrod (GND)

GND is tough to read… so we’re going to sidestep this stock for now. We are watching that falling wedge on the stochastic oscillator though. If that breaks higher, it could offer a long trade. We need to wait for confirmation though. If GND trades as low as R4.25, we think it would be a decent buy at those levels.

Netcare (NTC)

NTC is not providing a high probability setup at the moment. There is a nice range to watch though. We’ll need some patience to see what it does around the R15.50 level.

FirstRand (FSR)

Technically, FSR broke out of the range and held above it by the end of the week, so you could take a long here with a stop in the middle of the range.

Investec (INL)

We got stopped out of a good long trade on INL for a loss last week. Our stop was just too tight and the few trades below R52.50 triggered out stop loss. This would have been a good long trade in our view and it is unfortunate that we were stopped out. Can’t win them all.

City Lodge Hotels (CLH)

CLH is a bit of a tricky chart. It looks like it is getting ready to take off. We would like the chance to buy for long-term accounts if it once again tests the zone between the 89 day and 200 day moving averages (between R3.30 and R3.70), although by the look of this chart, that seems rather unlikely. We might just have to pay up for this one.

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

By the looks of things, there are around 3000 or so points on the table for the longs (for the range trade). Nice solid up trend in place. Overall macro risk-on sentiment and South Africa’s present deep undervaluation should see the ALSI break through the 64k level and keep trending higher.

Shoprite (SHP)

Another inverse head and shoulders pattern in the making. As requested, we added stop and take profit levels for a long trade here. What we like most here is how SHP has been holding the support/buy zone over the last few weeks (green shaded area between 50 and 89 moving averages).
Disclaimer: we added SHP to long-term portfolios last week.

Gold

Gold has reached the resistance level. Now the waiting game begins. Once the 200 day moving average is broken to the upside, we could be looking at a proper medium-term trend change (and a return of the bullish trend). Inflation caused by enormous monetary stimulus will likely be a strong driver of the gold price in the coming months. Be patient though, $1848 is a strong level, wait for it to break.

Silver

Silver is not really presenting us with anything that we would consider a setup. That said, the trend is up. If we could see it get back above $28 (and hold above it this time), we might have reason to get involved here.

Bid Corp (BID)

BID has given us a fake signal here and there over the last few months, although largely our longer-term view on this stock has not changed. BID managed to get above the longer-term moving averages, which is indicative of a bullish trend change. We’d be happy to hold longs here with a stop below R270.

DRD Gold (DRD)

The trend change here is starting to look better and better. We did take a CFD long here and get stopped out at break even in the last few weeks, although the break and close above the previous de Mark or Williams point of resistance might see us taking a new long in the coming week. IF DRD can get above the 200 day moving average, things are going to get really interesting. What we really like about this setup is the interaction with the 89 day moving average. It’s been tested a few times, and finally looks like DRD has broken free of it. We like this stock.

PPC Ltd. (PPC)

Weekly chart.
Well hasn’t this one been the talk of the town? Looking at the weekly chart here, the safest way to play this would be to wait for the (blue) downtrend to be broken. Yes there is a decent rounding bottom there, but remember, things do not move in straight lines. A short-term, against the trend trade could be a break above the 200 week moving average and a run toward the downtrend line. From a Dow Theory / trend perspective though, the trend is down and has shown no signs of turning just yet. The brave longs will be rewarded here… possibly. Just don’t bet the farm.

Old Mutual (OMU)

OMU is looking rather interesting. It’s held the retest of the 200 day moving average and looks to be forming a bull flag price pattern. In a SA Inc. rally situation, we think OMU could do really well. Our view would be to wait for the break of the bull flag before making any moves.

Bidvest (BVT)

Bit a wishy-washy chart on BVT right now. The one thing it has going for it is that it looks like it is managing to put in a trend change. There is no high probability setup in our view, but we would rather be long than short. It is encouraging to see such long tails on the daily candles as it shows that there is interest from buyers. You could take a small long here with a target of R190 and a stop just below R170. It’s not the world’s best setup, but in the context of a strong market next week, it could be a decent trade.

Alibaba Group (BABA)

BABA looks interesting. It’s trading at support that has been a significant level since 2018 and unlike many other tech stocks, BABA makes a huge amount of cash. If you go long here, stop below $190 (to give it some room) and a whole lot of patience for it to get back to the previous highs. This could make an interesting addition to long-term holdings at these levels as well. We like this stock.

Woolworths (WHL)

Weekly chart.
WHL has held its tertiary trend rather well and manage to break above the 200 week moving average. It would not be unreasonable to expect WHL to shoot higher now that it has managed to break, test and hold the 200 week. The last two weeks saw bulls fighting back hard and snapping up whatever they could get in the buying zone. First target R60, second target R70, stop loss R46.

Pan African Resources (PAN)

Weekly chart.
PAN is making a large bull flag by the looks of things. It is also trading in the long-term buying zone and momentum is starting to look bullish. The safest play would be to wait for the flag formation to break and give us a signal, although buying in the shaded green zone (with a stop below R3) will likely prove to be a good entry.

Jubilee Metals Group (JBL)

Solid up trend. Waiting for a chance to buy in the buying zone is probably the wisest course of action. For those who are not in already, perhaps phase in a little now, with a view to buy more if/when JBL gives us a pullback. Those already long… enjoy the ride.

Copper Futures (HG1!)

Weekly chart.
This chart does not really do justice to the rally since the pandemic lows last year. Yes, it is almost straight up, but what is not shown here is that this has pushed to a record high. The question is really just ‘how long will this keep going?’. We do not know the answer to that to be honest. We suspect though, on the back of the post-pandemic recovery narrative, that there is more rally to be had in this.

BHP Billiton (BHP)

As long as the 89 day moving average holds, we think BHP should keep trending higher. As it stands right now, this is about the highest probability entry that we can get for any new long positions in this stock. If the 89 day fails, we’d look to buy again around the R420 level.

Prosus (PRX)

Much the same as NPN above, PRX looks to be offering a very nice long entry.

Alaris Holdings Limited (ALH)

This stock is just too illiquid for us to be able to have any informed technical view on it. It’s not really a stock that we track, but note that it is in the radio frequency (RF) technology sector. This could be an interesting and exciting space over the next decade, so it is worth doing a little bit of homework on.

Randgold & Exploration Company (RNG)

Liquidity… we just hope that you have a good fundamental reason for owning this if you do. This stock is not really on our radar, but we’ll spend some time looking into it. Generally though, we know that it is tempting to buy penny stocks in the search of the mythical ten-bagger, just make sure that if/when you do, you’re not putting too much capital behind it. Best to do some homework though.

MTN (MTN)

MTN is stepping higher nicely. It looks like R110 is on the cards in the short-term.

Mediclinic International (MEI)

MEI is not showing us a high probability setup at the moment, but we’d expect that it trades back to the top of the range. From a longer-term perspective, MEI is trying to establish a base for a new bullish trend. For now though, it’s trading sideways. In our view, the best opportunities are at the top and bottom ends of the range. In no man’s land, there is no trade for us.

Brait SE (BAT)

We like BAT, although it has not played out exactly how we thought it would. Nevertheless, we are happy to hold this for now and think in a year or so from now, accumulating at these prices will be handsomely rewarded. The double bottom only comes into play once the R4.25 is broken. We’re looking at a R6.50 target within the next 18 months.

Exxaro (EXX)

EXX left a pretty big gap… but in context, that was thanks for a massive dividend. Since then the stock has tested the 200 day moving average and looks to be setting up to once again trade towards the R180 level. Any new longs entered here can stop a few Rand below Thursday’s lows with a R180 target.

Telkom (TKG)

TKG gave us a fake short signal not so long ago. Since then though, the R38 level has been holding strong. We think now that TKG is ‘walking the line’ around the uptrend line (purple) and that we could see a decent long entry once it gets above R40.

Spotify (SPOT)

SPOT looks a little oversold here, and also like it has completed an ABC correction move with terminated on a key support zone. This actually offers a very high risk-reward long trade. Well spotted (lol, we got jokes)!

Adobe (ADBE)

A bit of a trendless situation happening here… It looks like momentum is shifting to bullish and we might see a very short-term downtrend break, so a long trade back to $520 might be worth a punt (with a stop below Wednesday’s lows).

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Twitter chart requests appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

Alright, so we wanted new highs and we got new highs. Where to from here? Looking at this chart right now, we actually don’t have a view on the SPY. The last daily candle signals indecisiveness on this instrument, which is sort of how we feel about it right now too. Perhaps it is time to clear this chart of all drawing tools and relook at it with a fresh perspective in the new week? Momentum wise, SPY is still looking strong. Our target is still $420.69. Patience is key.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

We’ve mentioned before that we consider SOX a bit of a leader to QQQ, so we’re watching carefully for a potential turnaround here. You’ll notice further below that most major U.S. indices are looking rather bullish. Thus, we need to be patient with any thoughts of bearishness and allow the market to direct our actions. That’s a very long way of saying that the range indicated on the SOX chart below could offer a nice against the trend entry. Bullish momentum seems to be fading a little and the market might be gearing up for a bit of a pull back. That said, we will trade a break of this index ETF in any direction. In other words, either a bullish or bearish break from that range is worth trading. Whichever way this index goes, patience is key.

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX)

DTX has also gone a little flat over the last week. We also note that here too, momentum is starting to shift towards the bearish side of things. Perhaps it’s time for DTX to test the 50 day moving average again?

Russell 2000 (IWM)

We looked at a badly drawn Head and Shoulders pattern on IWM last week, which would probably take it down to the blue trend line if it does play out. This week though we note that the MACD has generated a buy signal and that price might just have broken out of a pennant formation. For now, this creates a great risk-reward long trade. Stop loss below $215.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

A nice clean break to new highs on QQQ. There is only really one trade to do here, which is long with a stop loss under $338.

Brent Crude Oil

Although the last two daily candles are not the most bullish, we do have a clear break of a tertiary down trend, complimented by a full range of buy signals on the momentum oscillators. We are bullish on oil and will use weakness as an opportunity to take long trades. Perhaps one more test of the 50 day moving average before the push to the $69 to $71 region?

Palladium

A very nice clean break here on Palladium. This bullish break is going to be supportive of PGM stocks.

Gold

Gold is bouncing well off the support level. It looks at is $1848 is very likely to be tested in the coming weeks. The real question is whether or not this is the start of a longer-term trend change?

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is still channel bound. A break from this channel should offer a good trading opportunity, although we need to be a little patient to see which way it wants to go. Those who like risk could probably take a long here with a very tight stop loss with aim set on the upper end of the channel. For the less risky traders, patience is key here. The more responsible way to trade this would be to wait for a confirmed break.

USDZAR

The support failed and the ZAR firmed up. It appears that the down trend (strengthening Rand) is here to stay for some time after all. It is interesting to note though, that the most recent two daily candles forms an harami candlestick formation. Generally, this is a reversal signal. Do we see the USDZAR bounce to test the support level before continuing the down trend? You’re welcome to leave your thoughts in the comments below.

Bitcoin (BTC)

First, perspective:

Then, looking at the chart; the bullish break from the triangle shown last week seems to have failed. This opens BTC to the possibility of a pullback to around the $35k region. As crazy and as scary as that sounds, it would not be historically out of the ordinary for BTC. We remain very bullish on BTC for the remainder of 2021 and continue to anticipate considerably higher prices, thus we welcome a pullback and aim to use it as a buying opportunity.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bit of a failed break. Once again, weakness here would be treated as a buying opportunity for us. Just keep in mind that cryptocurrencies are wildly volatile, so it is best to trade it, or buy it, without the use of leverage on a trusted exchange like VALR.com.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Destination moon! We’ll do another dedicated post about cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks. In the meantime, so far our Which cryptocurrency to buy in 2021 post is aging well.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The ALSI is looking rather bullish here. It’s making higher highs and has a full range of buy signals on the momentum oscillators. The trend is strong with this one.

ABSA Group (ABG)

ABG is still in a nice up trend. The highest probability entry was the break above the 50 day moving average on Thursday, although it would seem that there is still some upside left before it runs into resistance around R136.

AECI (AFE)

AFE has bounced out of the buying zone. The trend is your friend and patience is key. We could be in this trade for a good few weeks.

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

The AGL move as made it up to the previous high. A trailing stop loss from here would be the best way to manage this trade.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

Piercing line candlestick formation, along with early signs of a bullish momentum shift with a proper backwind from Palladium. AMS, and other PGM stocks, are looking solid for longs in the week ahead.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Gold stocks in general are on the hot list for next week. Should ANG get above the 50 day moving average, it should easily break the day moving average as well. We’d like to see ANG break above R350 and make a run for R400.

Anheuser Busch Inbev SA (ANH)

ANH above the 89 day moving average (R980) could make a run for R1100.

Astral Foods (ARL)

ARL has broken above both the short-term and long-term moving averages. The brief pullback after the breakout was ended with a bullish engulfing candle. Stop loss below the swing lows which can be changed to a trailing stop loss once ARL breaches R165. Liquidity is sometimes an issue here though, so trade it small.

BHP Billiton (BHP)

BHP is still lagging behind AGL. Momentum wise, BHP is starting to look better. Once BHP has traded up to R480, we’ll switch to a trailing stop loss. Patience is key though, we need to give this trade the time it needs to work.

BID Corporation (BID)

BID is looking really good. Also a somewhat illiquid stock to trade, but a long here with a stop below R280 could work out well.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

The CFR breakout is off to a great start. A nice clean break and back test. Bullish momentum boxes are also ticked.

Capitec (CPI)

We’re still long CPI with our initial target at R1495. A stronger ZAR and general risk-on sentiment should be supportive of this trade.

DRD Gold (DRD)

DRD is looking really good for a long entry above R14.72. Perhaps the BTC shock over the weekend will drive the Gold price higher, which will play into the hands of gold stocks. DRD presents a really high risk-reward long trade here.

Discovery (DSY)

DSY is looking really good as well. Momentum starting to fire off buy signals, the range has broken. Once it gets above the moving averages, we think it trades up to R155 (first target). DSY looks like a simple trend following trade here.

Exxaro (EXX)

EXX broke overhead resistance around R180 for the third time. This time around though, the previous resistance, now support, has been tested twice without failing. This presents a high risk-reward long trade.

FirstRand (FSR)

Our FSR trade was almost stopped out, but seems to be back on track (and in the money) once more. We note now that the MACD has given a buy signal and a few more green days will likely see the MACD line cross over 0, which will reinforce our bullishness on FSR.

Gold Fields (GFI)

This consolidation above the 50 and 89 day moving averages, paired with our bullish view on Gold itself, makes for a decent long trade on GFI. Initial target is R159, then R170. Should Gold manage to change it overall trend, we could see GFI up at the R250 levels again in a few months.

Glencore (GLN)

GLN is showing some bullish divergence and both the MACD and Stochastic oscillators have triggered buy signals. Logn trades from here can have a stop loss below R57.

Growthpoint Properties (GRT)

GRT is holding above the longer-term moving averages rather well. We continue to think that local property stocks are offering value at the moment. Longer-term traders and investors could consider adding GRT to their portfolios at current levels.

Harmony Gold Mining (HAR)

Following the narrative of Gold and gold stocks in general, we like HAR for a long trade with an eye on the R80 level as a potential target.

Impala Platinum (IMP)

IMP will no doubt benefit from the Palladium (breakout) rally. The trend is very strong here. Hard stop loss below the swing low (also the 20 day moving average) which can be set to a trailing stop once in the money by Average True Range x 2.

Massmart (MSM)

Pennant price pattern with early signs of a bullish momentum shift. Should the ZAR keep strengthening, local retailers should benefit in general. The trend on MSM is rather strong too, so this could make for an opportune time to get long of the stock. Stop loss below the pennant support.

Nedbank Group (NED)

Patience is key. We waited a long time for this range break on NED and now finally all the boxes are ticked. Our first target is R167, with a three-day-low stop loss.

Prosus (PRX)

PRX has been rather respectful of this support level around R1600. We like the high risk-reward on offer for a long trade from here, potentially back to the highs of R1900.

Remgro (REM)

Once again patience is key. Finally REM broke resistance and it looks like the trend change is on. We like REM for an addition to longer-term trading accounts and portfolios.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Patience is key to opportunism appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.