Sasol (SOL)

We here at Herenya have looked at Sasol extensively and have held positions on the stock for some time, but we think the time has come to sell. Sasol has seen phenomenal gains since the start of the unfortunate conflict in the Middle East, and those gains are simply due to the supply and demand of oil, which has seen global disruptions. With talks of a potential ceasefire looming, which will drive the oil price down, we believe it is time for us to take profit. Currently, we still think Sasol will trend higher, and are looking for a goal price of R225, but are comfortable with the profit we are seeing.

Rotating Into Precious Metals

During the course of this war, we shifted our positions to try to stay safe by looking at offshore energy markets like gas and coal. Now, with talks of negotiations and a potential ceasefire, we are looking to rotate back into resources like platinum and gold, which were doing well before the war, but have since fallen quite a bit. We are looking forward to a time when the markets bounce and rally once things start cooling off. Some might call this brave; this is, in reality, a tactical trade, since we are seeing some reports of US troop movements and deployments to the surrounding Gulf as “strategically placed forces”, but we find the fact that there are even talks supposedly happening reassuring. We know President Donald Trump wants to find a quick resolution to this war to protect his approval rating, which is declining rapidly as this war goes on. We will be looking at Valterra Platinum, AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold Mining Company, Impala Platinum Holdings, and Sibanye Stillwater.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community, where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Selling Sasol, buying gold and PGM miners appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Harmony (HAR) & Anglogold (ANG)

We are looking at taking a relatively medium-term position trade where we long on Harmony Gold (HAR) and short on Anglogold Ashanti (ANG), and essentially, this is not a play on the price of gold or anything of the sort. This is rather a look at the ratio of correlation between Harmony and Anglo, and how that has shifted apart over time. We are taking a trade based on the assumption that the correlation will return to normal. We are taking this trade with equal exposure on both sides since there is a close relationship between these two. At the beginning of the year, these two instruments were very much in line, and now they have drifted apart. Our idea is that these two will come back together again at some point, as they have done in the past.

Raubex (RBX)

Is a construction business that is supported by Sanral-related work, and recently the Australian segment has weighed on earnings. We are looking at a market that is already skittish and has just received some less-than-pleasing news, resulting in the extraordinary move you see in the chart. In the last two weeks, we have seen a consistent downward movement of about near 20% in total. We think this is a little exaggerated, and from other technical points, we see this as a good opportunity for a long trade. We see the possibility for this chart to go back to R52 if not higher, so now would be a good time to enter with a stop loss set at R46.50. Before recent world events, we saw a strong upward momentum, and we believe that with markets stabilising, we will most likely see that trend start once again.

Naspers (NPN)

South Africa has recently been more interested in Chinese technology than its American counterparts, and we have noticed this. We recently bought into KWEB, which is the Chinese Tech ETF, and another way to get exposure to eastern tech is through Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX). Tencent (700) recently came out with an announcement for an AI assistant, which was received well by the market. The performance of Tencent has a direct influence on the performance of Napers and Prosus through the holdings each company has. Naspers is a strong company, and it has been under undue pressure for some time. We have already seen a change of momentum recently, and it is on track to meet the 200 Day moving average. We see this as a low-risk trade. Another thing to consider is that as the Middle East conflict continues, we see more people move away from US-based tech, which is facing uncertainty and moving towards more stable competitors, the biggest being China, so this all bodes well for Naspers.

Watch the episode here:

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Trade of The Week – 17 March 2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Gold

Starting off the Gold at all-time highs post with, you guessed it, Gold. Although Gold has traded higher on an intraday basis, Friday was the highest ever close achieved in history. This is a big deal and is not something to be ignored. We won’t ramble on about our macroeconomic views here now since we are here to look at Gold stocks, but this is a big moment and we should all be paying attention.

Vaneck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

With Gold closing at an all-time record high close on Friday, it seems that the time for the goldies has come. Here we see GDXJ (Junior Gold Minders ETF) really pumping hard on Friday. Our view is that these gold stocks are going to absolutely fly, but the trade setup is up to the swing high around $39. Once there, maybe take most off and let the rest ride on a trailing stop loss.

Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD)

We published this trade idea on our TradingView profile on the 14th of February 2024 as a little Valetines Day gift for you guys (we hope you liked it). So now we update this idea. Originally the call was to buy in the high probability buying zone and ride the move up to resistance around $18 to $18.50. The best possible entry is now behind (below) us, bit there is still a great risk-reward trade on the card here.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

With Gold at all-time highs, the gold stocks should be getting a move on really soon. If this upper range support breaks (which coincides with 200-day moving average), then I think this stock pulls a bitcoin.

DRD Gold (DRD)

We published this trade idea on our TradingView profile on the 28th of February 2024 and even mentioned it on Trade of the Week on BDTV on the 26th of February 2024. Lots of upside potential here given Gold at all-time highs, and the stock is still around our original entry, so worth a shot if you have not gotten in yet.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM)

AEM was another Valetines Day gift on our TradingView profile on the 14th of February 2024. The trade is doing well, and we think that AEM will probably trade to the swing highs at $56 rather quickly. If you are only getting in now, you could put your stop below $48 to ensure a decent risk-reward.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.

Herenya on TradingView.com

Exciting news! Herenya now integrates with TradingView.com! Our clients can trade directly from TradingView, enhancing convenience and efficiency. TradingView offers top-tier market tracking, financial news, and quotes, aligning with Herenya’s commitment to innovation. This integration simplifies investment management for all, whether seasoned investors or newcomers. Log in to TradingView with your Herenya account to access seamless trading and real-time data. Join us now for expert guidance and enhanced trading capabilities.

If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Gold at all-time highs appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

As usual, we start with the SPY. We’ve been a little prematurely bearish here while the market kept climbing higher and higher. It seems now though it has finally made a downturn after hitting the $461 level we focused on some months ago. From here, we’d expect to see the market test support at $430.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Next up is the Q’s. Nasdaq ran a little harder than the upside target we had for it, which was the source of much of our premature bearishness. It has since turned and is about to test the very steep uptrend line. Our thinking here is that the trendline breaks and we finally see a decent correction after around four months of straight up.

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ)

If the QQQ does in fact break that trendline and has a bit of a wobble/correction, we really like SQQQ for a strategic hedge or a speculative long. Keep in mind, this is an inverse ETF with 3x gearing. In other words, if QQQ falls 1%, SQQQ should rally 3%. In other words, keep a tight stop on this.

Brent Crude Oil

Alright, so Oil has reached the top of the channel. Where too from here, we will have to wait and see. It’s looking a little overbought at the moment, but we’re not brave enough to bet against it just yet.

USDZAR

R18.60 held… for now at least. Do we move down to R17.60 again, or do we break above resistance and head for R19.50 again? Let’s see. Our current view is that we see weakness ahead, so our call is R19.50.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

We called a bullish break of this resistance level on Trade of the Week (BDTV show on Monday’s), although it seems that we got it spectacularly wrong. Let’s see how the week ahead unfolds. We’d love to be bullish here, but if the U.S. markets come off a bit, we don’t see how the ALSI will be saved from the downward pressure. That said… Rand hedges and locals could rally. Banks have been really strong lately and EM is generally undervalued in our view. Hard to call to be honest.

Capitec (CPI)

Talking of strong banks, CPI seem to have broken the downtrend. Well, almost. It needs to clear R1800 (which very technically, it did on Friday) in order to print a higher-high. R1900 next stop?

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

We were looking for the bounce from the trendline. It tried, it back-tested, we thought that it might be giving another chance to get long… we thought wrong. The trendline broke (on some negative news) and we’ve stopped out.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is looking good. Broke above the resistance level, held it on the back-test and closed at the highs on Friday. We like the long here.

Netcare (NTC)

For the brave and the bottom pickers. NTC is once again on the R13.55 level, which it has held and bounced from a few times over the last year or so.

Tiger Brands (TBS)

TBS short is playing out well so far.

Join a winning team

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Short and sweet appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The double top we looked at last week has failed and the market went on to push higher. It seems now that SPY wants to trade to that $461 level. We are going to be patient in the sense that we are not going to chace the long trades here, nor are we going to continuously attempt to short. We will wait for another clear setup before we trade again.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

The QQQ chart looked a little better to us last week than the SPY chart did. As mentioned last week, it made a double top right on the resistance level. Well, thank goodness for stop losses because on Wednesday the resistance was blasted through and QQQ kept printing highs. We can debate the candle that formed on Friday (shooting star?), but as is the case above, we’re going to sit back and wait for a new setup before making any moves.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX still bumbling along the top end of the channel. We’re still of the view that we will see SOX test the lower end of the range, and with bearish engulfing candle printing on Friday, the short trade is looking mighty tempting here. This might be one that we actually take the short on when U.S. markets open on Monday.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY tagged the $99.50 level. Where to from here? We think we see the bounce to $101.30 before eventually breaking below $99.50 (and trending lower).

Brent Crude Oil

Oil finally made it above the midpoint of the range it has been trading in for some time. Let’s see what it does from here. We would like to see it trade all the way to $87.35, but we’re not sure that it will be able to do that immediately. It does look a little overbought here. Patience is needed here. Technically this is now in the middle of the range, so there is really no setup to be traded here.

Gold

Alrighty, gold broke the short-term downtrend and so far seems to be going for a move back to the highs. On the back of this chart (and move in gold price), we like gold stocks for longs in general here.

Platinum

Platinum has also put in the bounce we were looking for. Let’s see if it has enough legs to get back to the highs.

USDZAR

Ok, so maybe some bears get honey. The bear flag on the USDZAR has worked beautifully. We looked at this chart two weeks ago, then thought we were wrong and last week expressed our confusion. Seems all we needed was some patience as the ZAR went on a rampage last week. From here…? We wait for a new setup. We’ll likely see R17.60 soon, but let’s wait for it to consolidate there and give us some idea of what it wants to do next before we take any new trades.

Top Securities Broker Awards

Once again Herenya Capital Advisors is competing in the Intellidex Top Securities Brokers Awards. 

Launched in 2010, the Top Securities Brokers survey (formerly Top Stockbrokers) is the Industry’s premier independent assessment of the industry. 

The survey is based on a comprehensive survey of securities brokers as well as their clients, with high emphasis placed on client rankings of their firms across an extensive list of categories. 

The online survey to find the top securities brokers in SA is now open, and we would greatly appreciate you taking the time to complete the 2023 online client survey and share your experiences. 

To rank Herenya Capital Advisors click here. 

The survey will take approximately 20 minutes to complete.

All participants are automatically entered into a lucky draw and stand a chance to Win R10,000, offered by Intellidex. 

In the past year Herenya Capital has grown from strength to strength, not only have we been featured on some of the most revered platforms, but we have also been commended by our peers and our clients for our excellent service and tenacity to stay at the forefront of the finance industry. We also won the title of Best Stockbroker for Traditional Investors in South Africa. We would greatly your appreciate your support to help us take another title of two this year.

Please let us know if you have any queries or require additional information.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 index (ALSI)

Oh how wrong we were last week on the ALSI. The super strong Rand lifted most of the market (although in very thin volume), while the pumping gold price pushed the gold stocks. This was the perfect storm for the ALSI longs. Well done to the bulls. We concede and we wait for another setup.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

ANG bouncing off the trendline like a champion! We hope you got a decent long entry here. Keep a trailing stop loss and have some patience. We think we might have a proper winner here.

Capitec (CPI)

Banks have been strong and if the Rand keeps it up, banks will likely stay strong. CPI is headed for some resistance though in the form of a medium-term downtrend line. This makes us go “mmmmmm”…. Let’s see though, if it can break that downtrend it might put in a strong move higher.

FirstRand (FSR)

Sticking to the theme of strong banks for a little bit, we see a bull flag (flat) that has broken on FSR. This triggers a long trade with a good risk-reward.

Naspers (NPN)

Again we’re adding NPN because we think it is an important chart to keep aware of. We’ve spoken about the range for many weeks now. When this eventually breaks, there will be fireworks. Keep watching it and stay patient.

Netcare (NTC)

Maybe a cheeky little long here from the bottom of the range on NTC?

Reinet Investments (RNI)

RNI once again breaking a consolidation to the upside. Decent trend following long trade here we think.

Join a winning team

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Up she goes! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Now, yes, we did say this a few weeks ago and the market has remained persistently strong. Relatively at least… U.S. markets are slightly higher, but locally markets are slightly lower. So, no real fireworks just yet. Perhaps the momentum finally shifts down, and we see the market come off a little? Particularly in the over-hyped tech sector. Let’s look at some charts and get a better idea of why we’re thinking what we’re thinking.

*Also, please just note that as usual, the offshore indices we chart are in fact ETFs of those indices as those are tradeable. If you are not trading offshore for only $2 a trade, click on that open account button. Top right. You got it. Ok, time for charts.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

This is ironically one of the charts that is not so clear to us right now. The levels marked in yellow are our up and downside targets. We think down before up and it should be noted that if $418.31 doesn’t hold, we could see this push to $400. Also, that does look like a double top, does it not?

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ is a lot more clear to us than SPY. Once again we see the double top, but this time it is in fact directly below the resistance level we pointed out a few months ago. It feels like this bullish move has now run its course and it’s time to wobble a little. Our thinking is that we will likely see QQQ come off to test the previous significant horizontal level (also marked in yellow) at $333.57.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX found some resistance at the top of the channel. Momentum is shifting toward the downside, and if you squint just right you might see a little head and shoulders pattern. Look out below! Time to wobble.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Friday came along and said woah! It looks like that support at $101.30 is going to be tested once more. The question we are asking ourselves is ‘are we forming a base here or are we forming a flat?’. In other words, does $101.30 hold and this is the long-drawn-out starting phase of another bullish move over the next few months/years? Or, does the support break on the third attempt and we see the Dollar weaken substantially going forward? Time will tell. Time to wobble.

Brent Crude Oil

We could probably pose the question as above (with DXY) here on Brent. The way we see it is that Brent has been bouncing between the bottom and the mid-point of the range for a few months now. We’d like to see it break above $79 and head for $87. The start look aligned here. We’ll look at a Sasol long as well.

USDZAR

Time to wobble? But its so wobbly already! That’s a volatility joke by the way. This chart is, well, maybe we need new ideas and perspectives here. To us, this looks like a monster bear flag… but it could also go to R19.50. Let us know what you think on Twitter.

Platinum

Platinum might have gone a little far on the downside here and from our perspective it looks like it is going to try put in a little bounce here.

Gold

Gold is looking fairly bullish right now as well. At least, it looks like a decent bullish setup complete with a bearish equity market view to back the risk-off idea. Let’s see if it can get going.

Apple (AAPL)

This trend looks a little long in the tooth. We’ve marked out our trailing stop for AAPL longs. A daily close below $188.92 will stop us out of a position that has done really well. It is worth noting that when it is time to wobble for these giant tech stocks, the rest of the market will surely follow. The majority of the Nasdaq Index and a big chunk of the S&P 500 Index are in just a handful of stocks that are all highly correlated. Once the tech giants begin to wobble a little, the straw house that is the U.S. stock market at the moment is likely to be blow over.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

As a way of example, looking at AMAT, we see that our trailing stop has already been triggered. Now, AMAT is not as exciting as AAPL or TSLA or NVDIA or (insert any A.I. stock in here), but AMAT is a large supplier to many of these companies. Semiconductors have to be made somehow, right? AMAT might be the canary in the coal mine here.

Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFT is also teetering on the edge here. A daily close below $332.81 will trigger the trailing stop loss. As is the case with the illustrated trailing stop losses above, these could act as short entries for the more active traders. Just be warned, you’re betting against the trend, so keep tight stops.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Well, well, well, if it isn’t the good old ALSI heading for the longer-term trendline? At least that’s our view. Buckle up, it’s time to wobble.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

It’s not often that you see such a beautiful break and retest of an established trendline. Textbook short setup here.

Naspers (NPN)

Going nowhere slowly… but, keep it on the watchlist as you can trade it between the levels, and when eventually this range breaks, it will do so in glorious fashion!

Shoprite (SHP)

Retailers have done alright recently. SHP underperformed a little over the last few days of last week though. It also looks to us like it wants to go test R192. It’s time to wobble, hold onto your stops!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL has bounced off this level once before… and then came back and slammed right back into it. With the Brent Crude Oil context above, and with this level actually holding fairly resiliently, we think that it makes a great long trade from here. Easy tight stop and a potentially a huge amount of upside.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

If you have been keeping an eye on energy demand forecasts, weather and other going-ns in the energy space in Europe, you will note that there is a slight shortage of the burny black stuff (coal) brewing. This once again plays into TGA hands. Combine that with a falling wedge, very recent higher lows, and you get what looks like a really good long setup for a medium to longer-term trade.

Anglo American (AGL)

Bullish divergence off a significant horizontal support level. Bodes bullish to us.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

So the trendline broke and the head and shoulders worked out perfectly and the trendline is now being tested. Ok then. Given our thoughts on Gold (and Platinum) above, ANG might be presenting a nice long trade opportunity for those who are willing to take a little risk.

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Time to wobble appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

For the last few weeks we’ve harped on about ‘it not needing to make sense, we just follow the market’, but over the last week it seems that the ‘follow through’ is not there. In other words, the market is starting to feel the need to make sense again, which makes us a little bearish. There are still many signs that point to a slowdown/recession in the second half of the year and more and more signs pointing to a looming credit crisis/crunch. Canada put up interest rates unexpectedly, U.S. student loans are once again becoming payable (aka. households have had a reprieve from making payments on student loans and that reprieve is now over, so payments are once again due). Overall, the economic grounds are shakier than what Joburg was a 02:40 on Sunday morning.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

So, the 4300 level ($430 on SPY) put up a good fight and won. Our horizontal resistance level is marked out at $429.50, although we know that these support and resistance levels are more zones than absolute levels. Thus, the attempted break higher that failed on Friday is rather significant in our view. Momentum is looking a little stretched too. In the bigger picture, we have the making of a longer-term trend change here (from bearish to bullish), but in the short-term, we think that the market is very likely to come down and test the 4200 level ($420 on SPY) again. There is a metric ton of economic data due out next week, so it is a bit of a wildcard week, but from where we sit, it doesn’t look like there is going to be much good data coming out. Thus, we expect the market to be softer in the week to come. As always, we would be happy to be wrong in this regard, but the start of the week might prove a good time to bank some profits on local (South African) long trades that have worked out.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

There is not too much to add to QQQ that was not said above. Although, we do feel that we should stress that Tech has had an amazing run on the back of all this A.I. mania. We’d said a few times over the last week that we think the A.I. bubble is only just beginning, and we still believe so, but some of these tech stocks (NVDA for example) have gone a little far and are due for a pullback in our view. We also see waning momentum in QQQ and a failure to make a new high. Brace for some downside we think.

Gold

We won’t reiterate our downside (range) target for gold every week as it is a multi-month, potentially multi-year setup. That said, we have to wonder if we might not see gold pop a little on the back of weaker equities in general..? Overall, we are still bearish here. It would not be crazy to imagine gold coming down while equities are coming down, specially on the back of bad economic data and some fresh panic. Let’s see how the week goes.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

It’s looking more and more like DXY will test the 101 level. The surprise BOC move (hiking interest rates in Canada) contributed to some USD weakness. Bad economic data in the week ahead will likely add fuel to that fire.

Brent Crude Oil

The Saudis have just about thrown every kitchen fitting at the oil price to get it to go higher and still it won’t budge. This makes us worry a little. If that $70.50 level breaks, $60 might be on the cards. Slowing global growth (aka. recession) and persistent inflation will likely keep putting the breaks on oil prices. We can no longer be bullish here under the current circumstances.

USDZAR

We asked for reprieve and we got reprieve, in a big way! Time for that Kansas City Shuffle though. We’re happy to take some speculative longs around R18.60. Keep a tight stop though.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

VIX sub 10 lows would mean that things are ‘back to normal’. While we think that this will likely be the case rather soon, with a doji candle and all the long stories about headwinds we’ve already told above, a test of 16 or 18, or even 20 in the week ahead is likely more probable.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

We’re looking at a weekly chart here on the ALSI. To us it looks like the momentum has started running out and that a move to be bottom of the upwards sloping channel is the most likely move from here. We know that CFR has had a huge impact and that will be no more, so maybe the ALSI comes back down to earth a little.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Well would you look at that? If it isn’t a beautiful head and shoulders pattern with a target at the primary trendline? It’s makes sense though. Gold is looking wabbly, the Rand has gotten a huge amount stronger. The party is over here for how. ANG is probably worth a buy sub-R400, but for now we think that there is around 20% worth of downside to come.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

We’re just updating the BTI chart here and reiterating our R584 target price.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN bounced a little, but momentum ran out pretty quickly. Maybe it’s time for the Kansas City Shuffle here too? We’d take the money off the table from the long trade here and run.

Bidvest (BVT)

BVT finally breaking the flag and putting in a good run. As is the case with APN above though, maybe it’s time to go left while everyone is going right? Take the money and run, in other words.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

Look out below! Well, ok, it’s not that simple. Yes, this chart is looking terrible and yes, there is a ton of selling that needs to be done in order to get index trackers inline with the rebalancing. But, and a big but, CFR is one of the most shorted stocks (in proportion to market capitalization) on the JSE at the moment. Everyone is thinking that this is the easy trade, and look, it probably is, but when it squeezes, which it eventually will, it is going to hurt the overleveraged shorts in ways that they will remember for many years. We do still like the short though.

FirstRand (FSR)

What a move from FSR! ‘Locals’ have done really well, and there are lots of arguments why they are all undervalued and why South Africa is ripe of the picking (aka. buy local stocks over offshore), but again with buts, FSR has slammed head on into the R68 resistance level. We could add a support level at R60 here and it would not be completely unreasonable to think that FSR will come back to test it.

Gold Fields (GFI)

Many years ago I (Petri) worked at a small hedge fund in Cape Town, and there my old boss taught me one of his favourite setups. He called it ‘The Eye of Sauron’. Basically, a failure to make a new high very shortly after a pullback at the top of long upward move. Almost a double top, but weaker. Now, The Eye of Sauron sits atop the GFI daily chart, and it looks down at the primary trendline with malice. And it broods. This is going to be a great short trade actually.

Naspers (NPN)

NPN has been pretty range bound, with the odd fake break out the bottom. We have this feeling that the next break out the bottom will not be fake though. R2785, then R2330. The lower target is less likely, but R2785 we think is rather probable indeed.

Sanlam (SLM)

SLM has also had a great run (see FSR comments) and has also slammed into resistance (at R59). For now, we think this party is over and we will be seeing the R51 support fairly soon. Great risk-reward here too, with a super tight stop and almost R8 on offer. A daily close above R60 takes you out of the short and an intraday high above say R61 does the same. Remember though, there are stop hunters out there who will squeeze you to take your money, so trade small(ish).

Sasol (SOL)

SOL forming a nice little base here and longs from last week worked out rather well. Given the oil and general macro narrative above, we think maybe its time to pack this one in for now. Well, for short-term traders at least. For the longer-term investors, SOL is likely still a good hold.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

SSW is looking for that R31.80 level with a sore heart.

Telkom (TKG)

So… TKG rejected an offer for R46, because it is not enough. Word is that the ‘buyers’ are still sitting around the negotiating table. It smells like TKG pops in here.

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Kansas City Shuffle appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Alrighty, we start with the usual SPY chart. This chart has been giving us some whipsaw of late, but looking at it now it is getting harder and harder to remain bearish. If we completely ignore all the fundamental factors and only look at the chart, we see the probability of a new bull market starting as rather high. This market has made a new higher-high and now two higher-lows. Should the market break below 3750 (or $375 on the SPY ETF – and in doing so make a lower-low) we can comfortably say that the bear is still around and the market is most likely to push a new low beyond the lows of October/November last year. Should the 3750 level hold though and/or we see a move above 4200 (or $420 on the SPY ETF), we can confidently say that a new bull trend has been established. That’s a lot of if’s and maybe’s at this stage, which is indicative of the tumultuous nature of trend changes. Given that right now the market is in a ‘could go any direction’ phase, we are likely not going to make any moves until we have confirmation. That said, we do have two distinct levels that will act as ‘confirmations’. Until one of those levels are breached, we wait and keep evaluating. In the meantime, it’s looking a little bullish.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

The QQQ’s are a bit easier to read at this stage. We’ve drawn in an important horizontal level around the $312 mark. Should QQQ break and hold above this level, it’s time to get long. No doubt it will put up a fight though, and there is some bearish divergence. The market is on shaky ground to be sure, but a bullish break here would have to be bought (in our view at least).

Hang Send Index (HSI)

Maybe we’re being a little too optimistic here with our downtrend line and it being broken… but maybe this is exactly the right time to get long. It’s a rather easy trade here with a stop loss below the swing low and a trailing stop that could ride a long, long while if the larger trend really is turning bullish here. Follow the market, even if it doesn’t make sense.

Brent Crude Oil

We’ve done a weekly chart here, and as is the case with some of the charts above, we’ve removed some of the old annotations and added a few (in this case only one) new ones. Here we’ve highlighted that $70.45 level, which we see as an important horizontal level. It has acted as both resistance and support on a weekly basis over the last two or so years and in our view is currently acting as the last line of defence for the oil bulls. It could be interesting to try get long off this level if it gives another chance, but be warned that if it breaks, it might get messy really fast (which would likely make for an easy $10 to $20 short trade).

Gold

The $2000 level has been holding strong and gold has not managed to get and hold above it. Trends being trends leads us to think that it likely will, given the heightened risk in the overall market. Some money is moving out of the ‘unsafe’ banking sector and into the ‘safety of precious metals’ – and crypto. Can gold break $2000 here? We’re not sure, so we think it’s probably best to sit on your hands until it does.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

$28500 is a key level for BTC in our view. It was support about a year ago and is currently acting as rather strong resistance. That said, we won’t beat around the bush here. Bitcoin came about when banks were collapsing… the current environment is very favourable for Bitcoin once more. This is why it exists. It’s going to be interesting.. and it’s looking a little bullish.

USDZAR

By now you would probably have picked up that we have a slightly more ‘risk on’ outlook. Looking at this USDZAR chart, we can see that the R18 level is key for now. We think that we see some ZAR strength and a move towards R17.58 in the short-term. Our longer-term view and large channel shown on previous posts still looms overhead, but for the next few weeks, we think we see a stronger ZAR.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Squint your eyes just right and you might see the makings of a potential head and shoulders pattern. It’s too early to tell though. Our downside target stands for now, but and overall push from global equities will likely mean that we don’t get to see those downside targets in the next week or so. For now, we’re staying out of the ALSI.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

It may be wise to take some profit here, at least until gold is holding above $2000. There will always be another chance to get in.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

The R36 level is holding. The longer it keeps being tested though, the less confident we are in the long trade. Below R36 targets R32. Above R40 targets R52. Patience and stop losses are going to be important here.

Sun International (SUI)

SUI is looking very good. We pointed out this setup some time ago and it is playing out very well indeed. A trailing stop loss is advised.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

Dare we say that TGA is building a decent base here for a long trade? No setup yet, but keep this stock on your watchlist for a potential long entry.

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s looking a little bullish appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

We’ve not drawn in the lateral support line here, but the SPY chart shows that the recent short-term bullish trends have broken. Momentum wise, it is starting to wane as well as the stochastic oscillator is about to dip below 50. For now, we think that is is very likely to see SPY move toward $385 as it tests the longer-term trend reversal. So, in essence, we are more bearish that our logo for at least a week or two from here.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Looking at QQQ we see much the same as above with SPY, although here we have added in the lateral support line to show it’s significance. There are two ways to play this, the more risky way would be to already be short as the upward sloping trendline has broken, an the more conservative way is to wait for that yellow support line to break before entering the short. The same applies for SPY above.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still trading in the channel we pointed out last week. Until we have a clear break from this channel, we don’t plan to make any changes to our positioning.

Gold

A hit of hopium here for the gold bulls. Friday saw a decent reversal and the stochastic is starting to look like it wants to break higher. Perhaps if we see headline indices (as shown above) break down materially, we will see this gold price bounce and pust for $2000? For now we can’t tell, but keep it on the watchlist. Riskier traders can take a high-probability long trade from here (meaning a great risk-reward setup).

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY needs to hold above 103.70 in order to keep the pressure on emerging market currencies.

USDZAR

Got Dollars? This chart makes us a little sad to be honest. As things are right now, we see now reason for this current trend to change.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Alright, so finally some good news. BTC is looking well on track with its four-year cycle and seems to be making a run for that 126 week moving average. It needs to get and hold above in order to start a new bull run. Remember though, this is a four-year cycle, so being near the beginning of year 3 of the cycle now, the best we can hope for over the next 18 or so months is a move back to the all-time high region. Only near the end of 2024 will it be time to sell again. Those that bought in November last year when we said Buy Bitcoin are up 50% already. Hang on in there guys, we have another year and a bit to go before we can sell again.

Ethereum (ETH)

We don’t have too many comments here, but things are looking a little better for ETH in our view as well.

Moscow Exchange (MOEX)

Weekly chart here on MOEX. Not the most bullish of candles last week, but overall this market is starting to look like it will recover. Worth having some exposure in our view.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

We’ve not shown it here, but hedge funds are starting to load up on the VIX calls. So we will reiterate last weeks call and say again that buying some longer dated VIX calls (3 to 6 months out) is very likely a very good trade now.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Ok ALSI, it’s make or break time buddy. Short-term bullish trends have broken… well, very almost on ALSI. Let’s see how Monday goes.

Naspers (NPN)

Ol’ NPN is still trading in its range. Watch for the breakout of this range. We think it will be lower and we think it will be rather explosive.

Reinet Investments (RNI)

RNI is also in a range. This one looks bullish to us, but we are open to following this trade in whichever direction it decides to go. A bit of a global equities sell off to fuel to ZAR weakness could work out well for ol’ RNI over here.

Shoprite Holdings (SHP)

Our SHP long idea from last week has not worked. Time to get out if you are not out already.

Sanlam Limited (SLM)

Nice little setup here on SLM that give two trade options, depending on which line breaks first. We think it breaks lower.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

It’s not looking good SSW. R32 is calling.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

It’s not looking so good for TGA either to be honest. R180 might be a good level to buy from, but until then, be patient.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Ouch! Is it over though? Who knows at this point? If the wheels fall off the global equities bus, maybe…

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

Short-term bullish trends have broken on AGL too. It’s not looking good.

Discovery (DSY)

Bullish break on DSY. At least some good news in a rough market.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Short-term bullish trends have broken appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

It’s tough to be a bear

Like we mentioned above, there are a lot of mixed signals in the macro world right now, but this is probably one of the last big bearish signals out there. The chart below shows the spread between BBB rated US corporate bond yields and 90-day US Treasury bill yields. It is interesting to note that the only other time these spreads were this low, was just before or during previous recessions and major bear markets. Does this mean the breakout from the downtrend we’ve seen over the past two weeks was a bull trap? Right now, we simply don’t know, but we certainly have to be open to the possibility that the end of the bear market has not yet come.

S&P 500 (SPY)

So, we’ve had the breakout from the downtrend and on Friday we saw the formation of a bearish candle setup. Our question at this stage is; does the market back test the trend break and establish a new bullish trend, or did we see a fake breakout and the market is going to push for new lows? We don’t really know right now and as we’ve mentioned above, deciphering the current state of the market is rather challenging at the moment. Thus, we have to be open to both possibilities. Should we see the $390 – $400 region hold well as support and a bounce form from those levels, we’d likely have to buy some stocks and back the market as it tries to establish a new bullish trend. Should the support fail, well, then of course we continue to sit and wait for better days. Markets are certainly not the easiest they have ever been, but they sure are interesting.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is certainly not painting a bullish picture here either. Our thinking was that with the ‘return to business as usual’ transformation happening in China, we might see energy demand rise and thus oil prices (and commodity prices) rise. This would have been support for the overall bullish view. This is, however, not the case. Oil has broken the support we highlighted last week and has moved back into the downward sloping channel. It seems a rather safe bet to assume that oil goes on to make a new low from here.

Gold

Gold got hammered! It seems to be squarely stuck in the large range between (approximately) $1920 and $1676… and is heading back to the bottom of the range it seems.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

It might be a good time to consider taking some call options on the VIX. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there and if what we’ve seen over the last few weeks does turn out to be a fake breakout and a bull trap, some VIX calls will do well to soothe the discomfort.

USDZAR

Our ZAR comments from last week still apply, although this week we’ve added upper and lower boundaries to the current range that the USDZAR has been trading. Look for a break above or below this range for a decent trade opportunity. More aggressive traders could trade the range, but we’d rather wait for a directional break to be on the safe side. Just be warned, keep a tight stop if you are going to trade the break… it has given a false signal to the downside once already.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY bounced hard off the support level. It needs a few more days of data to confirm that it is putting in a trend change, so it is definitely worth watching very carefully in the week ahead.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Still not tradeable signal for us, but it is worth watching that steep upward sloping trendline for a potential trade trigger. It’s tough being a bear, but maybe, just maybe being a bear is the right call?

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

And in complete contradiction to our comments above (on the ALSI), we think that taking a long off this trendline on AGL seems like a very nice setup. It has everything you need; a bounce off of support, bullish divergence, a Dow theory uptrend, and of course the ‘China back to business’ narrative. If the bear market is over, the Fed has pivoted and the bull market is back, then commodities will do well and AGL is looking ripe for a long entry.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

We pointed out AMS as a buy last week and so far it seems to be on track. Trailing stop losses usually work best to capture as much of a new potential trend as possible. So be a little patient, but don’t hold on to it if it drops below entry.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

This is the last of the Anglo’s, we promise! ANG is right on a key level though… odds are good that it gets smoked on Monday morning after the hammering Gold took. So, this might be a good short trade to put a trailing stop loss on.

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

Another ‘bull is back in town’ play here on CML. We pointed out a long trade here last week that is off to a good start. The same rules apply though; don’t hang on to it if it dips below entry, but give it time and space to work with trailing stop loss.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

Just purely looking at the chart, SSW looks like a great long from here. Unfortunately, Gold was decimated on Friday and although SSW is far more than just gold these days, we don’t think it will be able to escape the pain. Let’s see how this plays out because the chart is telling us long, but logic is telling us short.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s tough to be a bear appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.