Gold provided some drama this week, -after proving our thesis right last week- it quickly turned around and traded below the $4,000 mark for the first time since late July. While gold did find temporary support at these lower levels, the technical indicators suggest the pullback may not be over just yet. Overall, global markets were dominated by sector rotation, as the persistent inflation concerns prompted US investors to rotate out of overstretched tech valuations and into safer value stocks and commodities.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

This week we had the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement in South Africa, alongside US markets moving out of tech stocks, as well as US Treasury yields moving lower.

Active Open Trades

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL) (1/3 of standard position size)

• Trade Logic: We might be a bit late to the party; however, looking back, when Brent Crude was trading around current levels for an extended period in 2022, Sasol was trading in the R350–R400 price range. If oil continues to trade higher, Sasol could easily return to those price levels.
• Status: Active. Bought at R288.30. Currently showing a small, unrealised profit.

Mr Price Group (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: Mr Price looks as though it might break its downtrend, while also forming a cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart, which is a very bullish technical signal.
• Status: Active. Bought at R172.58. Currently showing a small unrealised loss.

Pick n Pay Stores Ltd (JSE: PIK)

• Trade Logic: Pick n Pay is a stock we have held in our portfolio for the long term, and it is usually one of our first go-to picks for clients asking about long-term trade ideas. Now that it has finally broken above R20, we believe it could move to R21 or even R22, which would be a growth of 5-10%.
• Status: Active. Bought at R20.11. Currently showing an unrealised profit.

Thungela Resources Limited (JSE: TGA) (1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Alongside Exxaro (EXX), Thungela experienced a sharp few days of decline. With a firming US Dollar in mind, we anticipate the stock to benefit from hard-currency revenue tailwinds.
• Status: Active. Bought at R121.80. Currently showing an unrealised profit.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar and higher global coal prices.
• Status: Active. Bought at R204.00. Currently showing an unrealised loss.

Bidvest Group Limited (JSE: BVT)

• Trade Logic: Bidvest has been consolidating in a range between R222.72 and R253.50. Anticipating that R222.72 would act as key support, we entered at that level, targeting a move back toward the upper bound near R253.50.
• Status: Active. Bought at R223.26. Currently showing a profit.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R447.00. The unrealised loss has shrunk considerably, following the strong performance of the past week, bringing us close to breakeven.

Truworths International Limited (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Truworths was trading at a major historical support level that has repeatedly held over recent sessions. We initiated a long position to capture a technical bounce off this level.
• Status: Active. Bought at R42.31. Showing a nice unrealised profit.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (JSE: APN)

• Status: Closed at a small loss. Shorted at R158.40. Closed at R158.45 (Paid a dividend of R2.32 per share) | Net Loss of R2.37 per share.
• Details: We were in a nice profit at one stage, but the stock kept bouncing off the R154 level. As it appeared it might break its downtrend, we decided to close the position at the break-even point.

BHP Group Ltd (JSE: BHG)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R701.05. Closed at R647.63.
• Details: BHP broke below previous support levels and closed below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This indicates that the downtrend may persist for a while, so we exited the trade.
• Key Lesson: Temporarily removing stop losses to navigate market open volatility generally works well; however, we need to ensure strict re-engagement parameters are maintained.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R186.10. Closed at R176.80.
• Details: Gold and precious metals were trading in a consolidation range, so we bought select mining stocks in anticipation of a breakout above current resistance.

AngloGold Ashanti PLC (JSE: ANG)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R1,518.13. Closed at R1,459.10.
• Details: Gold and precious metals were trading in a range, so we bought select mining stocks in anticipation of a breakout above current resistance.

Thoughts On The Week Ahead

We previously noted the possibility of a risk-off sentiment looming over the market, and we saw further evidence of this over the past week as bond yields fell and investors shifted into defensive sectors, including consumer staples and utilities. Consequently, we will be keeping a close eye on stocks like Anheuser-Busch (ANH) and British American (BTI). Both counters have enjoyed a very strong run over the past week or two, and if investors continue rotating into defensive names, these stocks could see further upward momentum.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post JSE Decline appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

This is significant, as we have been holding onto this stock for more than 2 months -which technically disqualifies it from counting as a swing trade- AND our very own Petri Redelinghuys wrote an article on the long-term value unlock in Reinet, which featured on the TradingView Home and the Editors’ Picks pages! Now we are not claiming that our article is the sole reason for the great week from Reinet, but we are more than happy to let you think that!

An interesting note that helped in our trading journey was the lesson of removing stop losses at market open to avoid being closed out due to volatility. We did exactly that on Thursday, as we would have been closed out well below our original stop loss for our position in BHP (BHG). However, we removed the stop loss and decided to see how it trades for the day. While this was a somewhat risky call, it was a lesson we learnt early on, and we would rather risk losing a bit more on a trade than be closed out of the lows of the day on a trade that would go on to make a nice profit. We were rewarded for this, as BHP closed much higher and traded considerably better on Friday.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

CPI and PPI data were released during the week, with both coming in higher than expected, which is likely to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates in order to tame inflation.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Thungela Resources Limited (JSE: TGA) (1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Closed at a profit. Bought at R125,50. Sold at R140,65.
• Status: Thungela had strong momentum this week, and we decided to put in a limit order at R140,65 to close half of our position. Seems like this was the right call, as the momentum died down and, with the great day it had on Wednesday, it unfortunately closed at the lows.

Active Trades

Impala Platinum (JSE: IMP) (1/3 of our standard size)

• Trade Logic: As mentioned last week, Gold is holding up surprisingly well, considering that further interest rate hikes are expected. We put in a limit order for Impala, AngloGold (ANG) and Gold Fields (GFI), as these have consolidated for a while, with gaps that will hopefully fill. For now, we’ve decided to split these stocks into 3 equal-sized positions to reduce the risk of overexposure to a specific sector. We did, however, not get filled on Gold Fields, so we keep a close watch on the other two.
• Status: Active. Bought at R186.10. Currently showing a small unrealised profit.

Anglo Gold Ashanti (JSE: ANG) (1/3 of our standard size)

• Trade Logic: Same reasoning as Impala (IMP) above. AngloGold has also proven to be a very strong mining stock.
• Status: Active: Bought at R1518,13. Currently showing a small unrealised profit.

Pick N Pay Group (JSE: PIK)

• Trade Logic: Pick N Pay is a stock that we have had in the portfolio for a long time, and it’s usually one of our first go-to picks (or PIKs) for clients interested in longer-term trade ideas. With the R20 mark finally broken, we believe that this has the potential to move up to R 21 or even R22. While the number may seem small at face value, it would still account for a 5% or 10% growth, which we would take any day of the week.any day of the week. 
• Status: Active. Bought at R20,11. Currently showing a small unrealised profit.  

BHP Group Ltd (JSE: BHG)

• Trade Logic: BHP continues to trade within a defined channel between R680.85 and R754.58. We had a tricky day on Thursday but took a calculated risk and, so far, we’ve been rewarded for it. We will see how this plays out in the future, and whether we should have just taken the loss.
• Status: Active. Bought at R701.05. Currently showing a small unrealised loss.

Thungela Resources Limited (JSE: TGA) (1/2 position)

• Trade Logic: Alongside Exxaro (EXX), Thungela experienced a sharp few days of decline. But as the US Dollar continues to grow stronger, we anticipate that the stock will benefit from hard-currency revenue tailwinds.
• Status: Active. Bought at R121.80. Currently showing an unrealised profit.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro stands as a key beneficiary of a strong US Dollar and rising global coal prices.
• Status: Active. Bought at R204,00. Currently showing an unrealised loss. 

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (JSE: APN)

• Trade Logic: AAspen was recently included in the Top 40 index, generating initial buying momentum that carried it past the previous level of resistance near R160.00. However, the price retraced below that level, signalling a lack of sustained momentum. We initiated a short position, targeting a move toward R143.00.
• Status: Active. Shorted at R158.40. Currently showing a small unrealised profit.

Bidvest Group Limited (JSE: BVT)

• Trade Logic: Bidvest has been consolidating in a range between R222.72 and R253.50. Anticipating that R222.72 would act as key support, we entered at that level, targeting a move back toward the upper bound near R253.50.
• Status: Active. Bought at R223.26. Currently showing a profit.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R447.00. The loss is getting considerably smaller given the strong performance during the week, and we are practically at the breakeven point.

Truworths International Limited (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Truworths traded at a major historical support level that has repeatedly held over the recent sessions. We’ve initiated a long position to capture a technical bounce off this level.
• Status: Active. Bought at R42.31. Showing a nice unrealised profit.

Closed Trades

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX) (1/2 Position)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R190.15. Closed at R178.16. (Received a Dividend of R7,00 per share) Net Loss of R 4,99 per share.
• Details: Exxaro has been a thorn in our side for a while now. We have held this position, despite breaking our rules of never removing the stop loss and increasing our position to double. Due to this, we have seen a massive running loss on it for a while. We decided to close it with a limit order of the Day before ex-div price at R178,16. The other half we are leaving for now with the impression that it will continue its upward trend.

Thoughts On The Week Ahead

IIt’s not very often that the market proves one right in only one week. Last week we discussed the strong performance of Gold and this week it held. We saw CPI and PPI figures come in hotter than expected, and the increasing pressure on the Fed did not lead to a selloff in gold. Instead, it stayed above the support and traded closer to the resistance. The main concern here is the buying of US government bonds by investors, which does signal a slight risk-off sentiment. We hope that this is not temporary, as this would signal a further move into gold, which is what we have been waiting for.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Gold & Reinet appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

That brings us to our key lesson this week; Never assume that the past will predict the future. As the famous saying goes: “History does not repeat itself, it rhymes”. Which is exactly what we saw happen today. Even though the R 100 000 support level did not hold up the way we wanted it to, it had a very good day today and came right back to close above the support level. Main reasons for this massive move up was due to the fact that Chinese markets were closed on account of several public holidays, which led to an increase in gold buying, as well as Trump tweeting that he will hold off on attacks on the middle east until after the November elections. 

Apart from our immense hatred of the J40 now, we were not as active as usual. The JSE saw similar days of sell off this week with no news, but some stocks holding up quite well. To name a few; Thungela (TGA), Exxaro (EXX), Sasol (SOL), Anheuser-Busch (ANH) and Shoprite (SHP). While we only closed losers this week, our current open positions are performing better, with more showing a profit. 

Last week

Macro Catalyst

It’s been a very quiet week overall, with no major macroeconomic catalysts driving the domestic or international markets.

Active Open Trades

BHP Group Ltd (JSE: BHG)

• Trade Logic: BHP continues to trade within a defined channel between R680.85 and R754.58. Anticipating that a recovery in iron ore prices will support upward momentum, our price target remains the upper end of the channel, near R754.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R701.05. Currently showing a small, unrealised profit.

Thungela Resources Limited (JSE: TGA) 

• Trade Logic: Alongside Exxaro (EXX), Thungela experienced a sharp few days of decline. With a firming US Dollar, we anticipate the stock will benefit from hard-currency revenue tailwinds.
• Status: Active. Bought at R121.80. Currently showing an unrealised profit.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar and higher global coal prices.
• Status: Active. Average entry at R196.83. Currently trading at an unrealised loss.

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (JSE: APN)

• Trade Logic: Aspen was recently included in the Top 40 index, generating initial buying momentum that broke past previous resistance near R160.00. However, the price retraced below that level, signalling a lack of sustained momentum. We initiated a short position, targeting a move toward R143.00.
• Status: Active. Shorted at R158.40. Currently trading at breakeven. (Note: We incurred an R2.32 per share dividend obligation, for which we adjusted our stop loss accordingly).

Bidvest Group Limited (JSE: BVT)

• Trade Logic: Bidvest has been consolidating in a range between R222.72 and R253.50. Anticipating that R222.72 would act as key support, we entered at that level targeting a move back toward the upper bound near R253.50.
• Status: Active. Bought at R223.26. Currently showing a small profit.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R447.00. Price action remains range-bound. We are managing position size while remaining positioned for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Truworths International Limited (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: TRU was trading at a major historical support level that has repeatedly held over recent sessions. We initiated a long position to capture a technical bounce off this level.
• Status: Active. Bought at R42.31. Showing a nice unrealised profit.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R3,435.01 | Closed at R3,390.71.
• Details: We reversed to a long position after technical indicators suggested the short move was concluding. However, CFR suffered a sharp decline on Thursday; to manage downside risk, we closed the position to preserve capital.

SA Top 40 (JSE: J40)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Bought at R101,267 | Sold at R98,696.
• Details: We entered anticipating an attractive risk-reward setup above R100,000 support. The market broke support on Thursday, triggering our risk management exit.

Mondi Plc (JSE: MNP)

• Status: Closed at a loss. Entry at R183.00 | Sold at R171.90.
• Details: Generated as a trade setup during our morning call. The stock initially teased a breakout but reversed sharply and triggered our stop-loss level.

Thoughts On The Week Ahead

The two things that stood out for us this week was Gold and the J40. While the J40 has dumped us and decided that we need some time apart, we focus on our other interesting point, which is Gold. Since end of August, Gold has been coming down slowly but surely, unable to find a support. However, it seems like we might have formed a base around $ 4100 with a resistance of $4180.

An important point to take note of, is that Gold has been performing surprisingly well considering that almost 3 interest rate hikes before next year June has already been priced into the market. This shows us that investors are holding onto Gold with both hands, firmly believing that the next Gold bull run will follow soon. Now whether this move in Gold today was purely because of the Chinese markets reopening after a public holiday, or if it is an overall market sentiment, remains to be seen. Regardless of the reason, this will be our focus for next week, as we have several precious metals and gold mining companies listed on the JSE. The challenge becomes which of these would perform the best, and which of them will be a lesson in waiting….

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Gold Power appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

In terms of execution, we closed an equal number of winning and losing trades. However, the key takeaway from this week’s performance is that our average loss was larger than our average profit. To maximize long-term portfolio growth, our primary focus remains ensuring our risk-to-reward ratio stays skewed in the other direction. We are fully confident that as long as we remain disciplined, stick to our trading plan, and refine our execution based on these lessons, the numbers will continue to track in the right direction.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The main drivers of market sentiment this week were the latest US PCE inflation data and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures. Both PCE and NFP came in softer than anticipated, sparking renewed hope that the Federal Reserve may pause rather than hike interest rates at its upcoming late-October meeting. Locally, the Rand experienced sharp pressure on Thursday, with a notable sell-off driving USD/ZAR up toward the 16.74 level.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Trade Logic: We identified a head-and-shoulders top formation on the daily chart and initiated a tactical short position to capture the downside.
• Status: Shorted at R3,539.13. Closed at R3,437.71.

Nedbank Group Ltd (JSE: NED)

• Trade Logic: Having been stopped out on a previous short attempt, we re-entered a short position; partly to act as a tactical hedge against our FirstRand long. This hedge provided valuable downside protection during Thursday’s banking sector weakness. With the stock rebounding on Friday, we locked in gains for a modest profit.
• Status: Shorted at R289.32. Closed at R285.50.

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (JSE: CPI)

• Trade Logic: We initiated a tactical short alongside NED to further hedge our FSR exposure, aiming to capitalize on post-earnings volatility. The stock bounced strongly on Friday, leading us to close near breakeven.
• Status: Shorted at R4,398.98. Closed at R4,363.24.
• Key Lesson: He who hesitates is poor. We wanted to close the trade very shortly after the market open on Friday, but hesitated and only ended up closing it for a small profit.

Thungela Resources Limited (JSE: TGA)

• Trade Logic: Following several consecutive sessions of aggressive selling without stock-specific negative news, Thungela has begun forming a stable consolidation base. We opened an initial 1/3 tranche long position, targeting a rebound just below R125.00.
• Status: Bought at R115.01. Closed at R124.96.

Active Open Trades

BHP Group Ltd (JSE: BHG)

• Trade Logic: BHP continues to trade within a defined channel between R680.85 and R754.58. Anticipating that a recovery in iron ore prices will support upward momentum, our price target remains the upper channel bound around R754.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R701.05. Currently showing a small unrealised profit after a fairly good week.

Thungela Resources Limited (JSE: TGA) (Remaining 2/3 Tranche)

• Trade Logic: Along with Exxaro, Thungela experienced a few sharp days of decline. With a firming US Dollar, we anticipated that the stock would benefit from hard-currency tailwinds.
• Status: Active. Bought at R121.80. Currently showing a small unrealised profit.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar and higher coal prices. 
• Status: Active. Average Entry at R196.83. Currently trading at an unrealised loss. Exxaro paid out a R7 dividend this week which has cushioned the blow slightly and experienced its first good day since going Ex-Div. 

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Trade Logic: After taking profit on our short position as the head-and-shoulders played out, we identified a clean technical bottoming pattern and reversed position to go long; a move that has yielded strong results alongside recent Rand weakness.
• Status: Active. Bought at R3,435.01. Currently showing a modest unrealised profit.
• Key Lesson: Have your Take Profit order in. We could have been out on the fat finger that pushed it above R3,608.00.

Mondi plc (JSE: MNP)

• Trade Logic: Morning call trade recommendation based on a bullish flag-and-pole continuation pattern.
• Status: Active. Bought at R183.00. Mondi experienced a stronger showing last week before pulling back slightly. Crucially, it has not broken recent lows, preserving the possibility of a trend reversal as we hold the position.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R447.00. Price action remains range-bound. We are managing position size while remaining positioned for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Truworths International Limited (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Truworths was trading at a major historical support level that has repeatedly held over recent sessions. We initiated a long position to capture a technical bounce off this level.
• Status: Active- Bought at R42.31. Showing a small profit. 

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (JSE: ANH)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R1,304.49 | Sold at R1,236.96.
• Details: Initiated as a defensive hard-currency allocation. While Anheuser stands to benefit structurally from Rand weakness over time, sharp downside momentum triggered our stop loss, preventing further drawdown as the stock continued to slide.

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Bought at R264.14 | Sold at R264.80.
• Details: Discovery broke its primary downtrend line, signalling a prospective reversal. However, price action stagnated in a sideways range while accumulating overnight swap holding costs. We elected to close slightly above our price entry, resulting in a minor loss net of brokerage and financing fees.

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Average Entry at R95.08 | Sold at R88.94.
• Details: We originally went long on a bull flag breakout. As sector-wide selling pushed the stock lower, we added a second position anticipating a value bounce. With persistent banking weakness breaching our risk tolerance, we closed both tranches to reallocate capital toward higher-conviction setups.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Shorted at R160.51 | Sold at R167.50.
• Details: Initiated as a tactical short breakdown play. Price action consolidated in a horizontal range for several sessions before moving higher to trigger our stop loss. Positively, accrued positive swap interest offset the execution fees.

Thoughts on the week ahead

Looking ahead to next week, we have several notable upcoming dividends on the calendar alongside a fairly quiet corporate earnings slate for the JSE, so we expect broader market volatility to remain relatively muted. Among the stocks going ex-dividend is FirstRand (FSR). Although we recently closed our active FirstRand position to limit overnight financing costs (swaps) and guard against further downside risk, we still believe the stock holds the potential for a rapid short-term rally. We are keeping a close eye on the setup to re-enter strategically and capture any sudden upward momentum.

Primary attention for the week will be centered on Thungela Resources (TGA) and Exxaro Resources (EXX). Thungela has established a solid support base following a strong upward push, and if historical sector correlation holds true, we anticipate Exxaro should follow shortly with a similar catch-up move.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Thungela Time appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

As we wrap up the week, we firmly believe that our positions are fundamentally sound and that we are sitting on significantly undervalued levels following the recent weaknesses.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

Global stock indices experienced downside volatility before stabilising, while Treasury yields pushed higher as bond markets priced in higher-for-longer borrowing costs following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25 bps rate hike to 3.75%–4.00%. On the domestic front, the South African Reserve Bank increased interest rates by 25 basis points, and the JSE saw a large sell-off.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Gold (XAUUSD)

• Trade Logic: We initiated a short position on Gold at the same entry price as our previous trade. After our previous stop loss was triggered, we re-entered to capture a short-term tactical pullback.
• Status: Shorted at $4,318.5, and closed at $4,277.25.

Active Open Trades

Thungela Resources (JSE: TGA)

• Trade Logic: Along with Exxaro (EXX), Thungela experienced a few sharp days of decline. With a strengthening US Dollar, we anticipated that the stock would benefit from hard-currency tailwinds.
• Status: Active. Bought at R121.80. Currently showing a small unrealised loss.

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Trade Logic: FFirstRand formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a technical breakout, triggering our initial long entry.
• Status: Active. The stock formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a technical breakout, triggering our initial long entry.
• Position Addition: Following two major broker upgrades on Wednesday, we added a half-position (bringing our total allocation to double the standard positions) with the expectation of a positive daily response. Unfortunately, broader market selling muted the impact.

BHP Group Ltd (JSE: BHG)

• Trade Logic: BHP continues to trade within a defined range between R680.85 and R754.58. Anticipating that a recovery in iron ore prices will support upward momentum, our price target remains the upper channel bound around R754.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R701.05. The stock is currently showing a small unrealised loss, following a tough week for resources.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (JSE: ANH)

• Trade Logic: Initiated as a defensive hard-currency allocation. Alongside Exxaro, ANH benefits structurally from Rand weakness against the US Dollar.
• Status: Active. Bought at R1,304.49. ANH continues to hold above key support, so we are maintaining patience with the position.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro carried strong upward momentum into the week. It also stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar.
• Status: Active. Active. Average Entry at R196.83. It’s currently trading at an unrealised loss. Exxaro has slipped below its previous support level at R180.00, and we are monitoring it closely, ready to make an exit if the risk parameters are breached.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: Carried over from three weeks ago. Mr Price continues to trade within a tight sideways range, characterized by alternating gap-up opens and lower closes. We have lowered our profit target to lock in gains, rather than risking a reversal.
• Status: Active. Shorted at R160.51. Currently sitting at a slight unrealised loss; however, the position is earning positive swap interest. For now, we are comfortable holding our positions, unless our stop loss is triggered.

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Trade Logic: CFR completed a distinct head-and-shoulders top formation. We initiated a tactical short position targeting further downside expansion.
• Status: Active. Shorted at R3,539.13. Currently showing modest unrealised gains.

Mondi plc (JSE: MNP)

• Trade Logic: We made a trade recommendation during one of our morning calls, based on the pattern of a bullish flag-and-pole continuation pattern.
• Status: Active. Bought at R183.00. Mondi experienced a stronger showing last week before pulling back slightly. It’s worth noting that it has not broken recent lows, preserving the possibility of a trend reversal as we hold the position.

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Trade Logic: Initiated following a breakout above its long-term downward trendline.
• Status: Active. Bought at R264.14. Currently showing a minor loss following a pullback; however, Discovery continues to print higher highs and higher lows, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R447.00. The price action remains range-bound. We are managing our position size, while remaining positioned for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Truworths International Limited (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Truworths was trading at a major historical support level that has repeatedly held over recent sessions. We initiated a long position to capture a technical bounce off, shown by the orange line in the chart below.
• Status: Active. Bought at R42.31.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Nedbank Group Ltd (JSE: NED)

• Status: Closed at a loss. We bought in at R298.13 and sold at R292.75.
• Details: We initiated a tactical short after NED formed a head-and-shoulders top on the daily chart. However, strong buying momentum pushed the stock higher and triggered our stop loss.

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R47.40 | Sold at R44.01.
• Details: We initiated a long position as precious metals demonstrated unexpected resilience, despite elevated interest rates and hawkish policy signals. But we made an exit, as broader resource pressure mounted.

Watchlist

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings (JSE:APN)

Trade Logic: Aspen was added to the SA Top 40 last week and reached a significant resistance level at around R160.90. On Monday, we saw it close above the level, while in the following two days it opened above, before dropping below. This could be an opportunity for a possible short as it displays an inability to move higher.

Capitec Limited (JSE: CPI)

Trade Logic: Capitec dropped significantly lower after releasing a trading statement that the markets did not like on 10 September. Since then, it has been bouncing off the 200-Day Simple Moving Average. We might wait until the earnings are released on 30 September, but this could be a possible buy.

Economic Data

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Choppy Seas appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Nonetheless, we understand that that is the nature of trading. You can’t always be on the winning side of every trade and sometimes you are just plain wrong. We stay disciplined and follow our rules. We understand that the distrinbution of winning and losing trades are essentially random, and that consitency is the result of discipline and consitency of approach.

That said, the past week proved to be a challenging trading environment. Price action across several sectors diverged from expected macro moves, with select stocks experiencing sharp intraday pullbacks on minimal company-specific news. We attribute much of this localized volatility to the quarterly FTSE/JSE Top 40 index rebalancing, as significant volume execution occurred during the closing auction. While our active book is currently carrying larger unrealised losses, our long-term fundamental and technical conviction in these holdings remains intact. We are comfortable maintaining these positions to allow the underlying trade theses to play out. 

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets this week was the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase interest rates by 25 basis points. Additionally, Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh maintained a distinctly hawkish tone, leading markets to price in a high probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike before year-end.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We held tactical short positions across gold and select precious metal equities in anticipation of downside pressure driven by higher interest rates and a hawkish Fed tone. While broad PGM/Gold momentum proved resilient, our trailing stop protected capital to secure a modest gain on the cover.
• Status: Shorted at R328.96 | Closed at R326.27. Realised a minor profit (+0.82%).

Active Open Trades

Nedbank Group Ltd (JSE: NED)

• Trade Logic: NED has completed a clean head-and-shoulders top formation, indicating potential downside expansion. We have initiated a tactical short position expecting the share price to continue its downward trend.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R292.75 with a tight protective stop loss.

BHP Group Ltd (JSE:BHG)

• Trade Logic: BHG is trading between a range of R680,85 and R754,58. Hoping that the bounce in iron ore prices would also help with the move up, our aim is the upper channel of around R754.
• Status: Active | Bought at R701.05. 

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Trade Logic: FSR formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a technical breakout, triggering our initial long entry.
• Status: Active | Initial Entry at R96.00. Position is currently at an unrealised loss following sharp, news-less weakness early in the week. Conviction remains high.
• Position Addition: Following unjustified selling pressure on Monday and Tuesday, we viewed the pullback as overdone and added a secondary half-position at R93.86 to lower our average cost basis.
• Key lesson: If there is a massive jump on a day for a stock (in this instance 10/09/2026), it’s best to take that as a sign from the market telling you to take your money and go. We did not listen last week, and now we are paying the price. Thankfully FSR is holding a key support level, so we can probably trade our way out of trouble here.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (JSE: ANH)

• Trade Logic: Initiated as a defensive hard-currency allocation. Alongside Exxaro, ANH benefits structurally from Rand weakness against the US Dollar.
• Status: Active | Bought at R1,304.49. Experienced a ~2.3% pullback on Friday, but remains above our stop-loss threshold. Holding active.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro carried strong upward momentum into the week and stands as a key beneficiary of a firming US Dollar. Following an aggressive two-day pullback after our initial entry near local highs, we added to the position at Thursday’s lows.
• Status: Active | Initial Entry at R204.00. Currently trading at an unrealised loss.
• Position Addition: Added a secondary position at R190.15.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: Carried over from two weeks ago. MRP continues to trade within a tight horizontal range, characterized by alternating gap-up opens and lower closes.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R160.51. Currently at a slight unrealised loss.

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Trade Logic: CFR completed a distinct head-and-shoulders top formation. We initiated a tactical short position targeting further downside expansion.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R3,539.13. Currently showing a modest unrealised profit. Stop loss has been adjusted lower to account for the recent dividend adjustment.
• Key lesson: We took a half position on this stock as we were slightly nervous after having to realise some losses. Always be confident in your trades and take valid setups without hesitation. Having the memory of a goldfish helps too.

Mondi plc (JSE: MNP)

• Trade Logic: Morning call trade recommendation based on a bullish flag-and-pole continuation pattern.
• Status: Active | Bought at R183.00. Price action is gaining momentum and beginning to break higher out of consolidation, but not yet where we want it to be. 

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Trade Logic: Initiated following a breakout above its long-term downward trendline. The stock has successfully retested former resistance as support without breaking down.
• Status: Active | Bought at R264.14. Showing a slight unrealised gain. We remain patient as the price builds structure toward our profit target.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active | Bought at R447.00. Price action remains range-bound. We are monitoring position sizing while remaining positioned for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Trade Logic: Initiated a long position as precious metals demonstrate unexpected underlying resilience despite elevated interest rates and hawkish policy signals.
• Status: Active | Bought at R47.40. Holding for upside continuation.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Growthpoint Properties Ltd (JSE: GRT)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R16.07 | Sold at R15.69.
• Details: Entered near channel support. Downside intraday volatility triggered our stop loss before the stock staged a minor recovery back above key horizontal level.
• Key Lesson: Stop-loss placement could have been cushioned slightly wider to absorb short-term index rebalancing noise. 

Pepkor Holdings Ltd (JSE: PPH)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R19.72 | Sold at R18.95.
• Details: Entered on a bullish reversal candle signal. Downside momentum resumed, triggering our protective stop loss to preserve capital. We were happy to be closed out of this one as it kept declining. 

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Sold at R237.63 | Bought at R238.10.
• Details: Tactical short initiated alongside HAR. Volatility around macro announcements moved against the position, triggering our stop loss just above entry. Exiting proved prudent as PGM spot prices continued to push higher.
• Key Lesson: If it seems like your stop loss is going to be hit at market open, it might be best to remove it and let the volatility pass, before you put it back. This has happened to us a few times now, where we could have potentially made a small profit or let the trade run more. 

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Shorted at $4,318.36 | Stopped out at $4,372.01.
• Details: Positioned short expecting hawkish Federal Reserve messaging to pressure bullion. While post-event commentary was hawkish, intense intra-announcement volatility triggered our stop loss immediately prior to the press conference.
• Key Lesson: Adjust your stop loss accordingly based on high volatility scenarios. Same as with an opening auction, the last thing you want, is for your stop loss to be hit, and the market reverses. 
• Disclaimer: Tactical intra-day scalps on gold during the Fed statement yielded a minor offsetting profit.

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

Woolworths Holdings Ltd (JSE: WHL)

Trade Logic: WHL is set to be removed from the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index in the upcoming quarterly rebalance, with Aspen Pharmacare Holdings (APN) replacing it. While the stock has staged a minor technical bounce over recent sessions, we anticipate near-term downside pressure driven by forced index-tracker selling during the rebalancing auction. We are positioning to capitalize on this temporary index flow dip to establish a long entry at discounted levels. Historically, stocks excluded from the SA Top 40 tend to stage a solid relief rally in the days to weeks following the rebalance event once institutional selling pressure abates.

Thoughts on the week ahead

Well, we took a few blows in the week past, but overall we survived. In the week ahead we will stay focused on our process and trading rules and mostly ignore the news. There is not much on th radar in terms of macro events anyway. The biggest news would probably be Chinese interest rates on Monday, where surprise commentary could move commodities. Other than that there is a Fed speaker on Tuesday, some European PMI’s on Wednesday and a slew of smaller Central Bank rate decisions on Thursday. These could move markets if there are big surpises, although for now, at least from our perspective, there is nothing for us to really watch out for or plan around.

We will be keeping an eye out for what the local market does now that the index rebalancing is done and forced buying and selling it out of the system. Also, gold has been very interesting in the sense that it did not respond to what we thought the most probable reaction would be to higher interest rates from the US last week. Thus, we will be watching if there is a rally in the metal and will likely try hop on board any momenetum that arisises in that space.

And hopefully, no more humble pie.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Humble Pie appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Like any trading experience though, it was not all sunshine and roses. So, let’s look at what happened last week.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets this week was the release of US PPI and CPI inflation figures. Currently, markets continue to price in the risk of higher interest rates, which has weighed on precious metals; gold pulled back slightly after forming a distinct Head and Shoulders technical pattern but rallied today with the CPI data coming in as expected. This could mean that the party is over for Gold.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL)

• Trade Logic: Our strongest performer since launching the weekly recap series. We entered this trade on 26 August as the stock traded near previous swing lows (lowest print of R179.45). Following Wednesday’s sharp rally driven by higher crude oil prices, we elected to lock in gains and secure the profit.
• Status: Bought at R180.00 | Closed at R227.00 (9 Sept). Delivered a +26.1% total return.

Standard Bank Group Ltd (JSE: SBK)

• Trade Logic: Standard Bank was trading within a defined range between R313.00 and R338.00. We initiated a long position near channel support targeting a move toward the upper boundary. Our trailing stop was triggered on the ex-dividend date as the share price adjusted lower; however, the dividend yield offset the capital price movement to secure a positive net trade return.
• Status: Bought at R315.39 | Closed at R309.45 (9 Sept). Dividend of R9.02, so our net proceeds was R3.08 per share.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR) — Half Position

• Trade Logic: Carried over from last week. As gold momentum began to stall ahead of key US inflation prints (CPI/PPI), we locked in a partial profit on half the position to manage event risk.
• Status: Bought at R324.00 | Closed at R330.00 (9 Sept). Realized a minor profit (+1.85%).

Active Open Trades

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Trade Logic: FSR formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a technical breakout, triggering our long entry.
• Status: Active | Bought at R96.00. Position is currently in a slight profit. Despite intra-day volatility following earnings, the technical structure remains intact. Key lesson here is having your take profit on the account, as this jumped to our target, but then dropped down again very quickly. 
• Key Lesson: We were offered at R102.00 on Thursday and honestly we were a bit gready. We could have sold out at R100.00 when price was trading around there, although we held out for more. Sometimes, when you get a large move in a short period, it’s better to just take the money. We’re now looking to sell half the position at R100.00 and half at R102.00.

Growthpoint Properties Ltd (JSE: GRT)

• Trade Logic: The R15.75 level established solid horizontal support. Following consecutive bullish retests over past sessions, we entered long with a favorable risk-reward setup.
• Status: Active | Bought at R16.07. Currently showing a slight loss with a profit target set at R17.50.

Pepkor Holdings Ltd (JSE: PPH)

• Trade Logic: Carried over from last week’s watchlist. Despite recent price pullbacks, declining selling volume suggests downside momentum is exhausting, supporting a potential mean-reversion bounce.
• Status: Active | Bought at R19.72. Currently trading at a slight unrealized loss.
• Key Lesson: We took this trade with only half size as it is not at very liquid stock. That will be helpful if this trade stops out as it will do much to limit out loss.

Exxaro Resources Ltd (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: Exxaro continues its strong upward momentum, benefiting from Rand weakness as a bulk coal exporter. Higher energy demand in Europe ahead of winter, coupled with drought conditions impacting regional supply, provides macro support.
• Status: Active | Bought at R204.00. Currently trading at a profit.
• Key Lesson: We had to chase here a little as we were bid a little too low. Our original bid was missed by literally 1 cent, so we had to increase our bid the next day to R204.00 to get picked up. This skewed our risk-reward a little, although we do still believe we are in the right trade here.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: Carried over from last week. MRP bounced marginally off recent lows but remains constrained within a broader downward trend. Position is held with tight stop-loss parameters.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R160.51. Slight loss, but close to breakeven. 

Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (JSE: CFR)

• Trade Logic: CFR completed a distinct head-and-shoulders top formation. We initiated a tactical short position expecting further downside expansion.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R3,539.13. Showing a small profit.
• Key Lesson: We entered with half size here as we were chasing a little and are looking to add to this trade if there is a bounce for us to add into. That said, if no bounce comes, we are happy to let our half sized trade move to target.

Mondi Plc (JSE: MNP)

• Trade Logic: Morning call trade recommendation based on a bullish flag-and-pole continuation pattern.
• Status: Active | Bought at R183.00. Currently at an unrealized loss; trade thesis remains active.

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Trade Logic: Initiated last week following a breakout above its downward trendline. The stock has successfully retested the former trendline as support without breaking back down.
• Status: Active | Bought at R264.14. Rallied on Friday after a very bad day on Thursday (retest of break-out), which means we are in a slight profit. 

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet continues to trade at a substantial discount to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active | Bought at R447.00. Price action remains range-bound. We are monitoring position sizing while remaining positioning for Reinet’s historical tendency toward rapid NAV catch-up rallies.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR) 

• Trade Logic: With CPI data coming out as expected, gold dipped down significantly and we saw an opportunity to short some mining stocks. 
• Status: Active | Shorted at R328.96. Running at a slight loss due to gold price shooting up. However, we expect this to come down again after the gold price has eased. 

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Trade Logic: Same idea as with Harmony as we wanted to short platinum stocks as well. 
• Status: Active | Shorted at R237.63. Running at a slight loss due to gold price shooting up. However, we expect this to come down again after the gold price has eased. 

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

British American Tobacco plc (JSE: BTI)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R913.15 | Sold at R879.57.
• Details: Despite strong long-term fundamental conviction, price action failed to confirm our thesis. We exited the position to redeploy capital into higher-conviction setups.
• Key Lesson: It bounced a little bit after we closed, but we are glad to be out. This trade was a bit of a thorn in our side for a few weeks, so happy to free up margin for other opportunities.

MTN Group Ltd (JSE: MTN)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R205.00 | Sold at R195.52.
• Details: Initiated on a double-bottom pattern setup. Downside volatility triggered our stop loss before a minor recovery materialized.
• Key Lesson: This one feels personal… it happens. We put our stop in the middle of the range (double bottom range) as is the rule with trading double bottom formations. The stock dipped just below the range mid-point, triggering out stop and leaving us behind. Our lesson here is not a new one… always put your stop just a little under the key level to give it some space to breathe. Lesson learned. We move on.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR) — Remaining Half

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Bought at R329.99 | Sold at R326.47.
• Details: Given heightened volatility surrounding US inflation data releases (CPI/PPI), we exited the remaining half to eliminate overnight gap risk.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Bought at R246.00 | Sold at R238.56.
• Details: Closed out ahead of major US macro data prints to reduce overall PGM sector risk exposure.

Capitec Bank Holdings Ltd (JSE: CPI)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R4,654.00 | Stopped out at R4,514.06.
• Details: Entered on a flag-and-pole continuation pattern. An unexpected market reaction to a corporate trading statement prompted a large and quick drop, triggering our stop loss..

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

SPAR Group Ltd (JSE: SPP)

Trade Logic: SPAR has experienced a challenging year, with the share price remaining in a sustained downward trend, making it difficult to pinpoint a clear turnaround level. However, a substantial off-book block trade of 9 million shares was executed on Wednesday, suggesting potential institutional accumulation. While this does not signal an immediate buy trigger, it has piqued our interest, particularly given the strong price action observed yesterday. We are monitoring the stock closely for potential confirmation setups.

Thoughts on the week ahead

The possibility of an interest rate hike in the very near future has become a rather large theme in recent weeks. CPI data came in hot and markets are expecting a 90% chance of a rate hike on Wednesday. At present the relationship between Gold, Bonds and Interest rates is inverted to what it has been historically, meaning that when the market expects or sees higher interest rates, investors are favouring Bonds over Gold. We think that if the very high likelyhood of higher interest rates does in fact materialise, we could see a rather sharp negative reaction from Gold and other precious metals, hence our now short positions on HAR and IMP.

We also note a Head and Shoulders pattern on Gold.

Perhaps the party is over for the Gold and other precious metals stocks. We think this will be the dominant theme next week.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

If you would like to trade with us and get our ideas as and when they happen, open your account and get started. Our Daily Morning Call is at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community.

If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Party is over for Gold appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

It has been a challenging week on the trading desk. Markets diverged from standard fundamentals, with weak corporate outlooks paradoxically triggering short-squeeze rallies – most notably in Impala Platinum. To sum it up, the whipsaw rodeo was in town and we got whipsawed good and proper!

While closed positions leaned toward losses this week, our strict risk management rules prevented significant drawdown. By honoring our stop-losses, we kept overall capital losses minor and manageable.

Trading requires continuous adaptation; we refine our execution strategy daily to cut underperformers quickly, protect capital, and focus heavily on scaling our winning setups. Also, weeks like the one just past serve as good reminders to stick to your trading rules, honour your stop-losses and stay focused on the process. The outcome of any given edge is ultimately random, although through consistentcy of approach – or by consistently applying your rules – consitency is of outcome is created.

That said, we did make some mistakes as the whipswar rodeo carried us away… let’s look at the trades we did last week.

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets on Friday was the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. Expectations were for an increase of 55k jobs, but the data printed significantly stronger at 162k. This robust figure reinforces the argument for higher-for-longer interest rates (or a potential rate hike), triggering a brief pullback across gold and the broader precious metals complex.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Thungela Resources Ltd (JSE: TGA)

• Trade Logic: We have held this trade for several weeks, and it has been one of our strongest performers. To lock in gains, we trailed our stop-loss higher. While this triggered a disciplined profit-take on Tuesday, it secured an excellent return.
• Status: Bought at R113.24 | Closed at R124.65 (1 Sept). Though the stock has continued its upward momentum, enforcing trailing stops remains core to our risk discipline.
• Key lesson: We trailed our stop loss to aggressively here. Prior to closing this we had fallen victim to the whipsaw rodeo, so we were eager to protect our capital and moved our stop too tight. When the volatility of Tuesday came around, we were closed out. We still banked a decent winner, but we could have done better to ride our winners for longer.

Active Open Trades

FirstRand Ltd (JSE: FSR)

• Trade Logic: FSR formed a clean bull flag pattern and confirmed a breakout yesterday, triggering our long entry.
• Status: Active | Bought at R96.00. Slight profit.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP)

• Trade Logic: IMP reported disappointing earnings yet counter-intuitively rallied. After being stopped out of our short position, we recognized that the market strength signaled a bullish trend reversal, so we flipped our bias and entered a long position.
• Status: Active | Bought at R246.00. Currently facing temporary headwinds following the hot Non-Farm Payrolls print and the subsequent sell-off across precious metals.
• Key lesson: Sometimes you just get trades wrong. Stop-losses are there to save you. It’s ok to change your mind.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We entered a long position as broad-based buying returned to the mining sector alongside rising spot gold prices. There is bullish divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator and Price, and both the 200 day moving average and support line coincide and held.
• Status: Active | Bought at R329.99 and R324.00 (average price of R 326.99). Facing similar macro headwinds as our IMP position above. On a positive note, gold appears to be stabilizing after the initial decline.
• Key lesson: Here the ‘ol whipsaw rodeo rode us fairly hard as well. We took a bigger loss than we like to take (more details on that trade below) by not sticking to our stop rules. Yes, we all make these same mistakes. It was a good reminder that we need to respect our stop-losses and manage risk before anything else. Nonetheless, we tried to clear the bias and take a new validated technical entry when it presented itself. Our lesson above all is ‘stop-losses save lives’… or the whipsaw rodeo will get ya!

British American Tobacco PLC (JSE: BTI)

• Trade Logic: We have held this position for some time, buying on the thesis that the stock had hit technical support and was overdue for a mean-reversion rebound.
• Status: Active. We entered around R913.00 and are currently sitting at a minor paper loss, but the setup remains intact. We are closely monitoring price action and considering exiting if bullish momentum does not materialise shortly.

Mr Price Group Ltd (JSE: MRP)

• Trade Logic: The retail sector remains under pressure. With MRP breaking down to new local lows, we initiated a short position.
• Status: Active | Shorted at R160.51. The stock has experienced a minor counter-trend bounce, which is expected within a broader downtrend. As long as previous swing highs hold, the bearish setup remains active.

Standard Bank Group Ltd (JSE: SBK)

• Trade Logic: SBK was trading sideways, presenting a low-risk entry near support. We bought the lows targeting a move back toward R337.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R315.39. Currently showing a modest profit as we wait for further upside momentum.

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL)

• Trade Logic: Brent crude has been volatile, but we identified key historical support near R180.00 and executed via a limit order.
• Status: Active. Bought at R180.00. Sasol has had a strong week, though it is currently consolidating just below the psychological R200.00 mark.

MTN Group Ltd (JSE: MTN)

• Trade Logic: MTN printed a double-bottom reversal pattern, opening a pathway toward our structural target near R220.00.
• Status: Active | Bought at R205.00. Experiencing short-term friction today, but position structure remains intact.
• Key lesson: We chased here a little by buying at the open instead of placing a limit order lower down. Our thinking was that it would break higher without looking back, and look back it did. So we’re on the whipsaw rodeo here a little, although we are still within our risk parameters. We just need to admit defeat and take the loss if it turns out that our stop-loss is triggered. Let’s see how this goes.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet remains significantly undervalued relative to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R 447.00. Price action remains range-bound, but we are holding with our stop-loss set at R 418.51.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss | Average Entry Price R48.09 | Sold at R47.85.
• Details: Given the broad-based weakness in precious metals, we closed the trade on Monday to mitigate risk ahead of Tuesday’s earnings release. While the market digested the weak earnings and rallied Wednesday, cutting exposure early aligned with our risk parameters.
• Key lesson: It’s a pity to have closed our last positions here at a small loss, specially after we had banked a few good winners on it on the way here. We had taken some body blows and were keen to cut risk before it got out of hand. In retrospect we could have given the trade some more breathing room. Our stop was too tight.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR – Tactical Trade)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Average price of R346.16 | Sold at R315.00.
• Details: This was a hard lesson for us as we do not like to take losses these big. We made the rookie mistake of moving our stop loss slightly, thinking we could catch a bounce back. The irony here is that later on, we had what we consider a validated setup and once again too a long position.
• Key lesson: Take the stop-loss early. Do not wait for anything. Once your stop-loss trigers, take it, or it’s the whipsaw rodeo for you (or the gulag, honestly not sure which is worse at this stage)! If we had cut our initial position earlier, we would be in a more comfortable position now. Alas, so we learn. We will do better next time.

Naspers Ltd (JSE: NPN)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Bought at R790.99 | Sold at R769.96.
• Details: NPN continued to trend lower without showing signs of structural reversal and we decided to cut the trade early. Our stop-loss was a R740.00, but once it breached R770.00 on the 1st of September, we decided to exit the trade and focus on higher-conviction setups.

Absa Group Ltd (JSE: ABG)

• Status: Closed at break-even/minor gain | Bought at R226.59 | Sold at R226.70.
• Details: Despite reporting strong financial results, price action stalled into range-bound consolidation, prompting us to exit and preserve capital.
• Key lesson: We cut this trade at break-even as we had taken some pain prior to it and didn’t want to let a winner turn red. In retrospect we should have stuck to our intial stop-loss strategy and we would have still been in this trade. The whipsaw rodeo claims another victim.

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (JSE: IMP – Prior Position)

• Status: Closed at a loss | Shorted at R227.06 | Stopped out at R245.50.
• Details: Initiated a short following bleak full-year guidance and rising global rate expectations. The market absorbed the news positively and squeezed higher, triggering our risk stop.

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

Northam Platinum Holdings (JSE: NPH)

• Trade Logic: NPH released full-year results today that met and slightly exceeded market consensus, supported by strong revenue and earnings metrics. Its long-term strategic outlook remains compelling (targeting 15% of global PGM supply by 2030), so we are monitoring the stock closely for a entry, keeping in mind its high sensitivity to underlying PGM basket prices. We would like to see it either pull back to retest the bull flag breakout, or perhaps break the 200 day moving average before we enter.

Pepkor Holdings Ltd (JSE: PPH)

• Trade Logic: PPH has experienced prolonged selling pressure over recent months. Yesterday printed a strong bullish engulfing candle on high volume, followed by a +1% follow-through on Friday. We are tracking the stock for confirmation that the broader downtrend has exhausted. We also note a Hammer candle formation on a significant support level on the weekly chart below.

Exxaro Resources  (JSE: EXX)

• Trade Logic: EXX has reached the higher end of its channel and is slightly underneath the 200 Daily Moving Average. This stock is leaning towards a possible breakout to the upside which will signal a buy.  

Discovery Ltd (JSE: DSY)

• Trade Logic: DSY has been in a downtrend and seems to have broken this trend along with closing above the 50-day moving average and confirming a buy signal.

Thoughts on the week ahead

It was a tough week and we are glad it’s behind us. Next week we start fresh and we have some decent trade setups forming. There are some risk events on the horizon, notably US CPI data on Tuesday which could materially impact risk sentiment (and heavily influence gold prices), so we will watch that data print carefully. Other than that, we remind ourselves to plan the trades and trade the plans. Risk management and an opportunistic mindset are key and we aim to realy focus on these in the coming week.

Also, we’d like to avoid the whipsaw rodeo by all means necessary. So we will be critically cold with our stop-losses. There is no excuse.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Whipsaw rodeo appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

We are looking for ways to keep delivering morning call snippets, however we would like to try a new format to communicate some of our ideas and trading results to you, dear reader. Keeping that in mind, this format might change a little as today’s post is only the first one and we will keep improving on it as time goes by.

So, without further ado, let’s get into it!

Last week

Macro Catalyst

The primary catalyst driving global markets and boosting our overall performance this week was core PCE inflation data coming in slightly above expectations. On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. While no firm policy commitments were made, his overall tone was notably hawkish.

Closed Trades (Take Profit)

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (JSE: APN)

• Trade Logic: We established a long position on 21 August following the broader sentiment surge in global pharma (sparked by Moderna’s record trial results earlier in the week). Following an interim trading update today, the stock experienced brief volatility before stabilizing.
• Status: Bought at R 148.95 – Closed at R 154.65 on 26 August. Looking back, we could have held it for another day given its continued upward momentum, but we are happy to lock in the profit on this one.

Truworths International Ltd (JSE: TRU)

• Trade Logic: Truworths released its earnings yesterday, and after reviewing the report, we noted soft operational numbers. Consequently, we executed a tactical short position. Admittedly, this was a high-risk trade, but it paid off quickly.
• Status: Sold short at R 49.85 – Closed at R 47.00. We continuously lowered our trailing stop-loss to protect gains, successfully locking in a solid profit.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We already have a Harmony positions, but after Harmony suffered a severe sell-off on Thursday, dropping nearly 10% intraday, we decided to add to our trade. We bought at R 325.00 as we felt confident that HAR was oversold at those levels.
• Status: Bought at R 325.00 – Closed at R 339.00 for a quick R 14 intraday move. This allowed us to capture profits to offset our core position, reducing our new average price on our core position to R 346.16.

Active Open Trades

Thungela Resources (JSE: TGA)

• Trade Logic: TGA was a trade idea given the current drought in Europe and the fact that Europe are not able to use Hydro or nuclear electricity anymore. We then thought to buy TGA with the thought that Coal prices would increase. 
• Status: Active (Increased Exposure). Bought at R97.53, sold half our position at an average price at R118.10. Increased our position size on Monday by buying more at R121.10.

Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd (JSE: SSW)

• Trade Logic: SSW hit a new local peak on Tuesday. Anticipating a run toward R52.00, we entered at the open around R43.00, benefiting from U.S. Treasury announcements, dollar weakness, and rising PGM and gold prices.
• Status: Active (Increased Exposure). Bought at R 43.00 on the 18th – Closed half at R 51.26 on the 21st. We bought more on the 24th at R 50.65.

Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (JSE: HAR)

• Trade Logic: We entered a long position following Harmony’s trading statement last week.
• Status: Active. After some active trading during last week, our average price is now R 346.16. This core trade has faced headwinds. However, our tactical intraday trade allowed us to recoup some capital, and we continue to hold the core position for now.

British American Tobacco PLC (JSE: BTI)

• Trade Logic: We believe the stock has hit strong technical support and are positioning for a rebound.
• Status: Active. We entered at R 913.00 and are currently sitting at a minor paper loss, but the setup remains intact.

Absa Group Ltd (JSE: ABG)

• Trade Logic: Absa reported earnings on Tuesday featuring strong full-year profitability; however, the market reacted with a brief sell-off. We bought shortly after the open around R 226.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 226.59. We remain in the trade and are currently sitting in a small profit.

Standard Bank Group Ltd (JSE: SBK)

• Trade Logic: SBK was trading sideways, presenting a low-risk entry near support. We bought the lows targeting a move back toward R 337.00.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 315.39. Currently showing a modest profit as we wait for further upside momentum.

Sasol Ltd (JSE: SOL)

• Trade Logic: Brent crude has been volatile, but we identified key historical support near R 180.00 and executed via a limit order.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 180.00. Sasol had a very strong session on Friday, gaining 5.34%.

Naspers Ltd (JSE: NPN)

• Trade Logic: Naspers (alongside Tencent) continues to consolidate sideways within a broader uptrend. We are positioned for an upside breakout.
• Status: Active. Bought at R 790.99. Stop-loss maintained at R 740.00.

Reinet Investments S.C.A. (JSE: RNI)

• Trade Logic: Reinet remains significantly undervalued relative to its underlying net asset value (NAV).
• Status: Active. Bought at R 447.00. Price action has been sluggish, but we are holding with our stop-loss set at R 418.51.

Closed Trades (Stop-loss)

Valterra Platinum Ltd (JSE: VAL)

• Status: Closed at a loss. VAL had a rough week following market speculation that it was the undisclosed bidder in an approach to NPH. The stock fell 5.3% on rumor, and once confirmed that VAL was indeed the interested party, we exited the trade to mitigate potential further downside.
• Bought at R 1475.97 – closed at R 1405.00. 

Vodacom Group Ltd (JSE: VOD)

• Status: Closed at a minor loss. We placed a strict stop-loss at R145.00. As the trend faltered, our stop was triggered. Although the stock subsequently bounced, enforcing discipline through stop-losses remains critical to long-term risk management.
• Bought at R 147.29 – closed at R 144.50

Conditional / Setup Watchlist

Northam Platinum Holdings (JSE: NPH)

Trade Logic: NPH released full-year results today that met and slightly exceeded market consensus, supported by strong revenue and earnings metrics. Its long-term strategic outlook remains compelling (targeting 15% of global PGM supply by 2030), so we are monitoring the stock closely for a entry, keeping in mind its high sensitivity to underlying PGM basket prices. We would like to see it either pull back to retest the bull flag breakout, or perhaps break the recent highs before we enter.

Thoughts on the week ahead

Given the hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh on Friday, and the subsequent move in the Gold price, we think it is likely we will look for the door on HAR and SSW. We did consider closing them both on Friday as they would have set each other off and we could have gotten out with a net zero loss (to small profit) on them both, however we decided to let the US session play out to see how Gold trades. As at the close on Friday, Gold was down a fair bit and this might be the catalyst for us to close the two gold stocks.

Overall, we continue to look for new trades an opporunities every day and closely monitor and manage the positions we have open.

For now though, we hope that you are happy that the weekly game plan is back.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

The weekly game plan is back

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Weekly Game Plan is back! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

The following is a partial recap of the market analysis shared during today’s morning Discord call.

Markets were largely flat overnight, with minor gains across both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ as investors paused ahead of key central bank signals. Gold dropped slightly in quiet trade, but other precious metals posted strong momentum, led by Palladium soaring more than 3.17% on renewed buying interest. Crude oil managed to bounce back after President Trump clarified that there are currently no ongoing conversations between the U.S. and Iran, easing immediate fears of shifting geopolitical oil supplies. Today at 16:00 SAST, all eyes turn to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as he delivers his highly anticipated keynote address; traders will scan his speech for either a hawkish or dovish tone, which is expected to trigger volatility across the U.S. dollar, gold prices, and broader risk assets. Meanwhile, enterprise software stocks are pushing back against the narrative that AI will render them obsolete, while on the domestic front, Truworths has slumped to levels not seen since 2023.

Software Platforms

Enterprise software platforms capped off a standout week of earnings. Strong reports from Salesforce and Workday led the rally. Their share prices climbed 22.58% and 1.48% respectively following their market updates. These stellar numbers help ease widespread market speculation regarding AI disruption. They prove that corporate AI integration is actually accelerating platform adoption. Instead of displacing existing software models, AI is driving higher-value subscriptions and scaling enterprise growth.

From left to right: Workday Inc (WDAY) and Salesforce Inc (CRM)

Local Stocks

Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)

Northam Platinum hosted an official presentation at 11:00 SAST today to deliver its latest earnings and outline its growth strategy. Investor attention remained firmly on recent corporate developments following confirmation that Valterra Platinum made an informal approach regarding potential strategic synergies; however, management did not disclose further details on the specific terms or nature of the discussions. Overall financial results and operational forecasts aligned with market expectations, highlighting solid profitability and an ambitious long-term outlook centered on securing a 15% share of global PGM supply by 2030. The market reacted positively to the update, with the stock rallying from the open to trade up over 4% by mid-day.

Truworths International Ltd (TRU)

Truworths International released its FY26 full-year financial results yesterday. The group delivered top-line earnings figures toward the upper end of its guided range. However, the market reacted negatively to persistent operational weakness across its domestic footprint. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) fell 2.3% to 734.9 cents. Basic EPS dropped 2.4% to 727.4 cents. Group retail sales slipped 0.9% to R21.8 billion. A 2.1% decline in Truworths Africa offset a resilient 4.9% sales bump from Office UK. The local business suffered from elevated credit impairments and a constrained local consumer. Despite operational headwinds, management maintained its final dividend at 240 cents per share. The stock ultimately dropped 4.10% during the session, dragging the price to technical lows last seen in May 2023.

Earnings & Economic Data

Pre-Market Earnings

Chagee (CHA)

Chagee is a premium Chinese tea chain that specializes in modern, freshly brewed milk teas made with authentic whole-leaf teas and fresh milk.

MINISO Group Holding Ltd (MNSO)

MINISO Group Holding Ltd is a global lifestyle value retailer that offers a wide variety of design-led, affordable products spanning household goods, cosmetics, electronics, and licensed IP merchandise.

Economic Data

Start your trading journey with us today!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 28/08/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.