Today, we looked at 13 charts; below are only a few. Join us in the morning call on Discord to see it all. Let’s have a look at the overnight moves. Today we open to a weaker Rand, and a red market in general, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed over the weekend. As a result, oil has seen a massive jump of over 11%, while the rest of the market is starting to recover as usual, though we doubt the growth will be as dramatic as what we saw on Friday.

Looking at the chart below, Tencent (700) may appear as an anomaly, but it’s important to note that the Asian session had already closed by the time we heard the bad news. As a result, we expect it to catch up today, and subsequently for Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX) to open flat today, while Thungela (TGA), Sasol (SOL), and Exxaro (EXX) go up.

S&P 500 Index

Today will most likely be a difficult trading day for the S&P 500, as it was at an all time high last Friday, but following the weekend’s news, it dropped down to 7,100. range. We expect it to remain in the same zone in the short-term future, barring dramatic headlines that push it up again. It’s important to note that the index is currently growing, but it’s not a universal feature at all, with most of the growth concentrated in a select few of the stocks. As for companies that you might want to keep an eye on, we suggest Tesla (TSLA) Servicenow (NOW) and Boeing (BA), as they are scheduled to have their earnings on Wednesday, the 22nd.

South African Trades

We expect most of the stocks in the U.S. market to be down today, so we’ve researched and compiled a list of South African stocks with swingtrade potential to keep an eye on.

Woolworths (WHL)

Woolworths has a clear range between R50 and R51. It had a great day on Friday, which brought it to shy of R52. We speculate that it will go down to 50 Rand in the near future.

Boxer (BOX)

Boxer Retail’s range seems to be between R73 and R74, and we recommend keeping an eye out in case if it drops down to the R70 range during the week.

Blu (BLU)

Blu appears to have found a bottom at R8.50 after its dividends and has been slowly growing since. We believe that it has growth potential with the right kind of headlines.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

Aspen had a surprisingly weak day on friday, but it maintains a relatively high value today. It remains to be seen whether it will go up or down, but we speculate that if it hits the R124 range, it’s likely to continue dropping.

Bid Corporation (BID)

Bid Corp shares are likely to grow during the week, as they benefit from the increased food prices, as well as today’s weaker rand.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 20/04/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

The markets reflected risk-off caution with the ZAR strengthening while the USD pulls back. Precious metals dipped, with Gold ending relatively flat, Silver down 1.7%, Palladium up 1.6%, and Copper up 1.4%. The VIX rose 5.1% which signals volatility, and Tencent is up marginally by 0.2% which reflects broader China tech resilience. Overall, today should be quiet for the most part with the US market closed for President’s Day.

S&P500 Index

We saw the S&P500 futures show resilience last week, managing to bounce from our lowest support level, 6,810, during Friday’s risk-off sentiment, but failed to retest the 7,000 resistance level. We expect action today to be between 6,880 and 6,930. If we break above 6,930, then we could reach 6,950, but if we see downward movement, then we could retest 6,810.

Aspen Pharamacare (APN)

Aspen Pharmacare will probably be one of the most looked at stocks today, managing to push above R126 on Friday, ahead of earnings, which will be released on the 3rd of March. This spike is likely due to the momentum from vaccine/anaesthetic restocking and nutraceutical growth, and also follows an interim earnings trading statement made last week. We will see if R130 is obtainable once the market opens and if volume sustains. A break below R124 could signal caution going into earnings. This is definitely one to watch today.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin has once again pulled back from last week, where we saw a bit of green on the chart, but momentum did not hold during liquidation cascades. We currently stand at around $68,000 this morning after the weekend’s volatility. Our levels are at 71,600, with 65,000 to the downside and 60,000 being our lowest if we manage to continue the downward trend.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 16/02/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Not only has SPY broken the uptrend line that has been in place since the beginning of the year, you might also see a head and shoulders pattern that has been forming since June. Should the neckline of that pattern break, we might see SPY trading all the way down to $418. For now, our bias here remains bearish.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ has a very similar setup when compared to SPY. Again, our bias is towards the short side. As a side note, we noted that even after an incredible earnings beat by NVDA, it didn’t manage to hold onto the highs it printed during the after-hours session when results were released. This confirms our bearish bias and make us think that being long U.S. tech stocks is risky business and we have to be dancing close to the door (aka. be ready to bolt out ball when the pawpaw’s start flying towards the fan).

MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI)

Here is where we get into mixed signal territory. While you could argue that the setup looks somewhat similar to those on SPY and QQQ, we want to point out the reverse bullish divergence on this chart. You will notice that the very same divergence is present on both the SPY and QQQ charts. This serves as a good reminder that even strong opinions must be loosely held. We think that the market should come down and are positioned accordingly, but we could be wrong in our view and might have to react rather quickly should the market not do what we expect.

Platinum

Right then, let’s talk about buying opportunities. We had this little bounce pinned on Platinum a few months back, then we saw the reversal and a retest of the lows followed by another bounce. We like Platinum here, in particular a platinum stock which we will get into in the local trade ideas section a little further down. Once Platinum can close and hold above $990, it’s only up from there we think.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent is still dancing close to the door… uhm, close to the upper resistance level. We’d like to see it break higher, but for now we have to be patient for a clear signal. We still like Sasol for a long trade from support (we’ll show the trade a bit further down), but it very much depends on whether or no Oil makes a move to retest the lower end of the range it’s been stuck in since the beginning of the year.

USDZAR

While we don’t really have a very clear view of the ZAR right now, we do think that should BRICS nations start to settle trade in local currencies, it will be very good for the ZAR. We’ve hear that the BRICS have agreed to go ahead with local currency settlements for trade between BRICS nations, now it’s just a matter of implication. Overall, and this might not be the popular opinion but, we think that is a strong positive for our economy.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

About as clear as mud… All we can comfortably say here is that the 66955 level is big. You could trade for the bounce (using a tight stop), or wait for the break and sell into a potential move to 64000. Right now, for us, there is no setup. It does look like the last week has made a bit of a bear flag, but there is also some reverse bullish divergence. So, flip a coin? Either way, watch that 66955 level. There will be a good risk-reward trade to be had in either direction there. Just remember, dancing close to the door is a very good idea.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is sitting right on the previous resistance level at R186-ish. There is a good risk-reward long trade from this level, but again, dancing close to the door means tight stops.

Naspers (NPN)

Well, NPN neve broke out the top of the range and is now making its move down to the bottom of the range. Maybe a sneaky long trade from sub-R3000 is the best way to play it now?

Remgro (REM)

Is that a bull flag on REM? It might just be. We like the long trade here.

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is once again testing the support level around R230. If we see Oil give back some gains and head to the bottom or its range, we might see SOL break down below that R230 level. Until then, we stay bullish. Keep disciplined though, because below such a long-term and significant support level the move could be big and fast. Keep dancing close to the door.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

When the trend line broke, it was game over. Friday’s close was on the lows as well, so while we cannot tell how much further this move goes down, we imagine that there is still some meat left in it. If you are short here, you could probably add a little and move your stop loss lower down (to around R268-ish).

Capitec (CPI)

It’s not looking good for CPI. It’s hanging onto the downtrend line for dear life. Maybe this is just a thorough retest… but maybe it’s a complete failure to break out. We can also see a small head and shoulders pattern. We think it’s probably best to abandon longs here for now.

Impala Platinum (IMP)

IMP is looking like a gem to us. Well, let’s see how results go (due out on Thursday next week). The market seemed a little disappointed when guidance came out indicating the dividend will not be as big as what most had hoped for. That said, results are due soon and there might be some upside surprise nonetheless. Lots of upside to be had here if earnings and dividends are beyond expectations.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

It’s also almost earnings time for SSW. Like with IMP above, we think the worst might be over here and that the time to buy is upon us. Earnings next week will be our guide.

Join a winning team

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Dancing close to the door appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

As usual, we start with the SPY. We’ve been a little prematurely bearish here while the market kept climbing higher and higher. It seems now though it has finally made a downturn after hitting the $461 level we focused on some months ago. From here, we’d expect to see the market test support at $430.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Next up is the Q’s. Nasdaq ran a little harder than the upside target we had for it, which was the source of much of our premature bearishness. It has since turned and is about to test the very steep uptrend line. Our thinking here is that the trendline breaks and we finally see a decent correction after around four months of straight up.

ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ)

If the QQQ does in fact break that trendline and has a bit of a wobble/correction, we really like SQQQ for a strategic hedge or a speculative long. Keep in mind, this is an inverse ETF with 3x gearing. In other words, if QQQ falls 1%, SQQQ should rally 3%. In other words, keep a tight stop on this.

Brent Crude Oil

Alright, so Oil has reached the top of the channel. Where too from here, we will have to wait and see. It’s looking a little overbought at the moment, but we’re not brave enough to bet against it just yet.

USDZAR

R18.60 held… for now at least. Do we move down to R17.60 again, or do we break above resistance and head for R19.50 again? Let’s see. Our current view is that we see weakness ahead, so our call is R19.50.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

We called a bullish break of this resistance level on Trade of the Week (BDTV show on Monday’s), although it seems that we got it spectacularly wrong. Let’s see how the week ahead unfolds. We’d love to be bullish here, but if the U.S. markets come off a bit, we don’t see how the ALSI will be saved from the downward pressure. That said… Rand hedges and locals could rally. Banks have been really strong lately and EM is generally undervalued in our view. Hard to call to be honest.

Capitec (CPI)

Talking of strong banks, CPI seem to have broken the downtrend. Well, almost. It needs to clear R1800 (which very technically, it did on Friday) in order to print a higher-high. R1900 next stop?

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

We were looking for the bounce from the trendline. It tried, it back-tested, we thought that it might be giving another chance to get long… we thought wrong. The trendline broke (on some negative news) and we’ve stopped out.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is looking good. Broke above the resistance level, held it on the back-test and closed at the highs on Friday. We like the long here.

Netcare (NTC)

For the brave and the bottom pickers. NTC is once again on the R13.55 level, which it has held and bounced from a few times over the last year or so.

Tiger Brands (TBS)

TBS short is playing out well so far.

Join a winning team

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Short and sweet appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

This rally feels a little long in the tooth, but it’s not for us to decide when it ends. A trailing stop loss is advised for those with long positions. For those looking to short, perhaps around $461 could offer a decent risk-reward, although for now we don’t think standing in front of the bus is a good idea. You could put up a tertiary trendline on the move from around June and use that as a potential short entry (or stop loss if you are long). Either way, dance close to the door.

Philidelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX is still spending time hugging the upper end of the channel. We’d like to see it test the lower band, but it seems that we will need to be patient. You could probably put a mid-channel line in and use that as a trigger for any new trades here (aka. the short trade to the lower end of the channel). Just note that trading against the trend could be bad for your health.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

See our comments on SPY. ‘Don’t fight the trend’ is probably the only thing we can say here. Well, we will say that we think this has gone too far, but we’ve tried that a few times and have not been right yet (at least not recently). So, we will be patient and wait for the market to lead the way.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is looking good to hold the $78.85 level and make a push for $87.35.

Gold

Gold pulled back a little in the second half of the week, but overall the move toward the recent highs still seems to be in play. We would be buyers on weakness here, at least for the next few weeks.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY bounced off $99.50 and smacked right into $101. It’s too early to really be able to tell, but we think that we might see the Dollar get really strong again in the near future (aka. get and hold above $101 and head for $103). Will it test the highs around $114 again..? Maybe. It won’t happen fast if it does, but it is possible in a scenario where global economic conditions continue to deteriorate and investors are looking for safety. We also have to be mindful that we could see the U.S. stop with the hikes, which will attract capital into longer-term U.S. Government Bonds, which not only could be a good trade in itself, but also drive much strength for the Dollar.

EURUSD

Forex traders… are we seeing a good short here? Let us know what you think by tweeting us.

USDZAR

The USDZAR is forming a bit of a base here by the looks of it. We think we see some Rand weakness in the week to come.

Top Securities Broker Awards

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The survey is based on a comprehensive survey of securities brokers as well as their clients, with high emphasis placed on client rankings of their firms across an extensive list of categories. 

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South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

You can see what our thinking is by looking at the chart. The last two weeks have been, well, not in line with our thinking. So, we stay open to the idea that is might just keep pushing higher, but we really still don’t have any reason to believe that the market is bound to go higher. In other words, we remain bearish.

Sasol (SOL)

Oil price looking bullish, Rand looking weaker… spells good times for SOL if you ask us. As long as this base holds (green line), then we should be good to stay long.

Tiger Brands (TBS)

This little bear flag setup on TBS looking like it is starting to get going now. R135 calling?

Anglo American (AGL)

It’s beginning to work! There is a lot of upside in this trade in our view, so be patient and give it the space and time it needs.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN closed at the highs on Friday, breaking the overhead resistance (not drawn, but visible in the form of that thin dotted blue line) and opening for the next leg higher. R200 then R210 as short-term upside targets. R230 and R240 as medium-term upside targets.

City Lodge Hotels (CLH)

The CLH trade is working very well. We do think that there is more upside to be had here over the coming months, but perhaps taking some (a third, or even half) of the money off the table is not entirely a bad idea.

Join a winning team

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Staying flexible appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

For the last few weeks we’ve harped on about ‘it not needing to make sense, we just follow the market’, but over the last week it seems that the ‘follow through’ is not there. In other words, the market is starting to feel the need to make sense again, which makes us a little bearish. There are still many signs that point to a slowdown/recession in the second half of the year and more and more signs pointing to a looming credit crisis/crunch. Canada put up interest rates unexpectedly, U.S. student loans are once again becoming payable (aka. households have had a reprieve from making payments on student loans and that reprieve is now over, so payments are once again due). Overall, the economic grounds are shakier than what Joburg was a 02:40 on Sunday morning.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

So, the 4300 level ($430 on SPY) put up a good fight and won. Our horizontal resistance level is marked out at $429.50, although we know that these support and resistance levels are more zones than absolute levels. Thus, the attempted break higher that failed on Friday is rather significant in our view. Momentum is looking a little stretched too. In the bigger picture, we have the making of a longer-term trend change here (from bearish to bullish), but in the short-term, we think that the market is very likely to come down and test the 4200 level ($420 on SPY) again. There is a metric ton of economic data due out next week, so it is a bit of a wildcard week, but from where we sit, it doesn’t look like there is going to be much good data coming out. Thus, we expect the market to be softer in the week to come. As always, we would be happy to be wrong in this regard, but the start of the week might prove a good time to bank some profits on local (South African) long trades that have worked out.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

There is not too much to add to QQQ that was not said above. Although, we do feel that we should stress that Tech has had an amazing run on the back of all this A.I. mania. We’d said a few times over the last week that we think the A.I. bubble is only just beginning, and we still believe so, but some of these tech stocks (NVDA for example) have gone a little far and are due for a pullback in our view. We also see waning momentum in QQQ and a failure to make a new high. Brace for some downside we think.

Gold

We won’t reiterate our downside (range) target for gold every week as it is a multi-month, potentially multi-year setup. That said, we have to wonder if we might not see gold pop a little on the back of weaker equities in general..? Overall, we are still bearish here. It would not be crazy to imagine gold coming down while equities are coming down, specially on the back of bad economic data and some fresh panic. Let’s see how the week goes.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

It’s looking more and more like DXY will test the 101 level. The surprise BOC move (hiking interest rates in Canada) contributed to some USD weakness. Bad economic data in the week ahead will likely add fuel to that fire.

Brent Crude Oil

The Saudis have just about thrown every kitchen fitting at the oil price to get it to go higher and still it won’t budge. This makes us worry a little. If that $70.50 level breaks, $60 might be on the cards. Slowing global growth (aka. recession) and persistent inflation will likely keep putting the breaks on oil prices. We can no longer be bullish here under the current circumstances.

USDZAR

We asked for reprieve and we got reprieve, in a big way! Time for that Kansas City Shuffle though. We’re happy to take some speculative longs around R18.60. Keep a tight stop though.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

VIX sub 10 lows would mean that things are ‘back to normal’. While we think that this will likely be the case rather soon, with a doji candle and all the long stories about headwinds we’ve already told above, a test of 16 or 18, or even 20 in the week ahead is likely more probable.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

We’re looking at a weekly chart here on the ALSI. To us it looks like the momentum has started running out and that a move to be bottom of the upwards sloping channel is the most likely move from here. We know that CFR has had a huge impact and that will be no more, so maybe the ALSI comes back down to earth a little.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Well would you look at that? If it isn’t a beautiful head and shoulders pattern with a target at the primary trendline? It’s makes sense though. Gold is looking wabbly, the Rand has gotten a huge amount stronger. The party is over here for how. ANG is probably worth a buy sub-R400, but for now we think that there is around 20% worth of downside to come.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

We’re just updating the BTI chart here and reiterating our R584 target price.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN bounced a little, but momentum ran out pretty quickly. Maybe it’s time for the Kansas City Shuffle here too? We’d take the money off the table from the long trade here and run.

Bidvest (BVT)

BVT finally breaking the flag and putting in a good run. As is the case with APN above though, maybe it’s time to go left while everyone is going right? Take the money and run, in other words.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

Look out below! Well, ok, it’s not that simple. Yes, this chart is looking terrible and yes, there is a ton of selling that needs to be done in order to get index trackers inline with the rebalancing. But, and a big but, CFR is one of the most shorted stocks (in proportion to market capitalization) on the JSE at the moment. Everyone is thinking that this is the easy trade, and look, it probably is, but when it squeezes, which it eventually will, it is going to hurt the overleveraged shorts in ways that they will remember for many years. We do still like the short though.

FirstRand (FSR)

What a move from FSR! ‘Locals’ have done really well, and there are lots of arguments why they are all undervalued and why South Africa is ripe of the picking (aka. buy local stocks over offshore), but again with buts, FSR has slammed head on into the R68 resistance level. We could add a support level at R60 here and it would not be completely unreasonable to think that FSR will come back to test it.

Gold Fields (GFI)

Many years ago I (Petri) worked at a small hedge fund in Cape Town, and there my old boss taught me one of his favourite setups. He called it ‘The Eye of Sauron’. Basically, a failure to make a new high very shortly after a pullback at the top of long upward move. Almost a double top, but weaker. Now, The Eye of Sauron sits atop the GFI daily chart, and it looks down at the primary trendline with malice. And it broods. This is going to be a great short trade actually.

Naspers (NPN)

NPN has been pretty range bound, with the odd fake break out the bottom. We have this feeling that the next break out the bottom will not be fake though. R2785, then R2330. The lower target is less likely, but R2785 we think is rather probable indeed.

Sanlam (SLM)

SLM has also had a great run (see FSR comments) and has also slammed into resistance (at R59). For now, we think this party is over and we will be seeing the R51 support fairly soon. Great risk-reward here too, with a super tight stop and almost R8 on offer. A daily close above R60 takes you out of the short and an intraday high above say R61 does the same. Remember though, there are stop hunters out there who will squeeze you to take your money, so trade small(ish).

Sasol (SOL)

SOL forming a nice little base here and longs from last week worked out rather well. Given the oil and general macro narrative above, we think maybe its time to pack this one in for now. Well, for short-term traders at least. For the longer-term investors, SOL is likely still a good hold.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

SSW is looking for that R31.80 level with a sore heart.

Telkom (TKG)

So… TKG rejected an offer for R46, because it is not enough. Word is that the ‘buyers’ are still sitting around the negotiating table. It smells like TKG pops in here.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Kansas City Shuffle appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Oh, and just a side note, you will notice that we used many weekly charts this week. We did this on purpose, in order to re-take stock of where we are in the medium to longer-term. Sometimes we get very focused on the day-to-day movements and we lose track of where we are. Thus, we look at some weekly charts this week to gain some broader perspective of the trends and patterns playing out in our and other markets.

Bigger picture (offshore markets)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Finally the follow through came (after some good data on Friday). Next level to clear is $430, then it’s clear skies for $461.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

This run is incredible. We think that there is likely much more upside to be had as well, as the A.I. craze is only really getting started in our view. Next target here is $371.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

ACWI breakout also finally printing a new high. Upside target is $102.

Gold

It’s still not looking great for the gold bugs, and we reiterate our call that gold will eventually (maybe in a year or two) retest the bottom of this range at $1650.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Lowest close on VIX since covid. Interesting. We mentioned last week that we might see a ‘return to pre-covid normal’ on the VIX. It might not seem like much, but to have the VIX bottom out around 10 instead of 15 is rather telling of how much less ‘fear’ is influencing the market. Time for some greed to come in and push things to way beyond where they ought to be. It’s buy time!

Brent Crude Oil

Oil remains range bound for now.

USDZAR

Geepers, can we have some reprieve please!? Although our longer-term target is around R21 to the USD, we do think that we will see a bit of a pullback on the back of stronger overall equities next week. Here’s hoping for R18.60.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

It was a wild week, but at least we ended higher. We’re bullish again this week, and although the ALSI chart looks a mess, you will see why when we look at stocks just after this. A general note on this chart though; we’re going to print new highs within the next three months.

Bidvest (BVT)

This flag formation on the daily chart has whipsawed us a few times, but once again it has given a buy signal. Maybe if we say ‘it’s buy time’ enough times this stock will finally catch a bid(vest)?

ABSA Group (ABG)

ABG has been testing and holding the R152 level for a few weeks now. We can see that this level is rather significant. A long trade here with a target at R200 would likely be a good trade. Remember, weekly charts, so it will take a long while to work out.

Anglo American (AGL)

Well it’s not exactly on the level marked in green, but it has been holding R560 like a champion for a good while now. We think it is safe to get long here and look for R760 as a target. Just keep in mind, as is the case with all upside targets, once reached you need to switch over to a trailing stop loss so that you can continue to benefit if the stock keeps trending higher.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

So, we want to say that ANH is a buy at R1025… but, nobody is buying Budweiser and it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon. So, we’ll rather say that around R1025 it looks interesting, but we need to wait for confirmation that it is in fact what it says it is, uuhm, we mean that the level holds, before getting involved. Can’t be too careful these days.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is still looking fairly bullish in our book. The bullish divergence shown last week on the daily chart does not show up on the weekly, but the stock did close the week close to the highs which has us in good spirits.

BHP Group (BHG)

BHG is trading in a nice upward slanting channel. Up through the middle of the channel and we should see the stock testing the top. Our target for now is R640.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

BTI is once again back to the lows. We reiterate our call for R584 as a downside target.

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS printed a (almost) hammer on the R239 support. This creates a pretty clear long opportunity with a great risk-reward. It’s buy time!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is forming a nice base here. We think that it might be a safe time to re-enter the long-term longs here. It’s buy time here for sure.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s buy time! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Well, well, well… the downtrend line held like a champ and the market bounce something furious. As much as we opine about the market and have all sorts of strong views about what we ‘believe’, we are essentially just trend followers. The market takes the lead and we do not try to fight it. If we see SPY get higher than $420 (lol), then according to the simplest of the simple and clean, good ‘ol Dow Theory, we have a bull trend. The market leads the economic cycle by 6 to 9 months. Perhaps it knows something we don’t? [spoiler alert: it does]

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ snapped back as well and broke right back above the key $297.25 level we indicated a while back. The same applies here as above. A new swing high would indicate a trend change.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

ACWI having a go at making a new high too it would seem.

Brent Crude Oil

Bullish equities = bullish oil! This chart is also a slow motion trend change in the making. There were some rumours that some countries might be leaving OPEC, but they were nullified rather quickly and oil caught a big bid on Friday. If equities are leading the economic cycle, then we can assume energy demand will keep growing and thus, so will the price of oil. We remain bullish energy in a big way.

Gold

Even ‘ol gold is looking like it wants to put in a new swing high.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Momentum wise, DXY is looking like it wants to soften a little. This would be good for equities and commodities in general. We have to admit, we did think this chart would go on to make a new high, and yet, here we are starting at it like a deer in the headlights not sure what to make of it all. We should probably leave it alone, but for now we are going to call it lower during the week ahead.

USDZAR

R18.50 held strong, and truth be told, we still think that over time the ZAR will keep working its way to R20 and above. In the short-term though, which is probably why most of you guys read this blog, it seems very likely that we’ll see the ZAR test the R17.60 level as equity markets rally somewhat in coming weeks.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Well, the trendline break gave us a short and sharp sell off… which was fun while it lasted. Given all the bullishness in the international arena, does this mean the bull is back locally as well? Momentum shows bullish divergence and the trend has been fairly strong. There was some bad news on Naspers over the weekend (well, Tencent), but will it be enough to completely ruin the party here? We don’t know to be honest, so let the week unfold and remember that risk management is king.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

Weekly chart here on APN. We waited rather a long time for this bullish break, so you can bet that we are in. Shorter-term traders might not want to chase too hard here, but for those who are willing to take a smaller bite and wait a bit longer, we still like this stock.

Reinet (RNI)

We’re really just putting this one up as a bit of bragging rights. We hope that some of you took this trade when we pointed it out a few weeks ago. Let us know on twitter if you did. Also, bank your money.

Sanlam (SLM)

We hereby formally retract our bearish stance on SLM and move it to ‘neutral’. If this stock can open above (and hold above) R59.05, buy it for an intraday trade.

Old Mutual (OMU)

OMU leads the way. Trend followers can comfortably be long here we think.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Does that mean the bull is back? appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The downtrend line has been broken and although the market was not as squeezy’ as we thought it would be last week, it was a rather strong week, nonetheless. The real question now is whether or not this is a real trend change, or if this is a fake breakout and a bull trap? This is also a question that we think cannot yet be answered. For now, we think we are in for another strong week, of course, pending the interest rate decision from the Fed. The market is looking forward to getting some guidance from the Fed regarding the path for interest rates. As usual, it seems that the market is again ‘playing chicken’ with the Fed and betting on a pivot in policy. We think the playbook for next will be ‘strong into the Fed, and weak after’.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Much the same applies to QQQ as commented above. It is just interesting to see that QQQ has managed to make a new high, which supports the ‘this is the bottom’ thesis of the bulls. Let’s see how this plays out. Just remember, even in the case that this is indeed the bottom, the market never moves in straight line and we are likely to see a pullback in the second half of next week.

Gold

Gold still trading at the top of a rather large and relatively long-term channel. There are signs that momentum is waning. Let’s see how it reacts to U.S. data this week though. There is the Fed obviously, but there is also monthly non-farm payrolls data which is going to be a big one.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still trying to stage a bullish break of this downward sloping channel and is still trading in a key support/resistance zone. We are open to the possibility that our channel is not correct, but only once prices breaks down from this zone and back into the channel will we be able to redraw this chart.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is hanging onto this support level for dear life. It does look like it is basing out here nicely and from a purely charting perspective, looks set to start moving higher once more. A good time to buy Dollars?

USDZAR

The USDZAR chart is sort of in the middle of nowhere for us. We’ve highlighted the possibility of a much stronger ZAR as that trendline support could act as a magnet in the event that DXY (as shown above) breaks below its support level. If that happens, that would be a trigger to short USDZAR to that trendline below. In the event of DXY bouncing off support, it would be safe to go long USDZAR. In essence, there is no clear setup on the USDZAR itself (at least for us) and we will be taking our lead from DXY.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Go ALSI, go! It looks a little like momentum is running out and a pullback is near. That said, we do not see a clear setup here and thus have no trade on the ALSI until a clear setup presents itself.

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

AGL is still consolidating in this resistance zone. This presents a good risk-reward setup for the patient trader. Wait for the break, in either direction, from this resistance zone and use a trailing stop to maximise the potential of this setup.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

AMS is looking good for a long trade. You could draw a small downward sloping trendline on the last month or so’s candles and use a bullish break of that as confirmation for a long entry. Momentum wise it looks good for a move higher though.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

ANG will naturally take its lead from Gold itself, although we think that once price is back to the trendline as indicated, it will present a high probability trade opportunity. Definitely one to keep on the watchlist.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is still in this range and is still looking like a medium to longer-term buy for us here. Short-term traders can try to trade the range, but we think the real power here is to buy for the longer-term once this range is broken to the upside.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

R642 needs to hold, else R583 opens up as a downside target.

Clicks Group (CLS)

Not all retailers are equal… CLS opens for a move to R239 after the R265 support is decisively broken.

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

CML looks like it has made a nice inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. This presents a decent entry point for medium-to-longer-term traders and investors.

Sasol (SOL)

Very nice and clean break on SOL finally starting to run out of a bit of momentum. SOL will take its lead from Oil next week, so the path forward is not exactly clear. Traders who got long on this trendline break can likely lock in at least some profits here. We still like SOL for the long-term, so we’d be looking to buy if there is any weakness in coming weeks.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

A bit of a riskier play here on SSW, but we like it for a long from within this support zone. You could put up a downward sloping trend line to act as a confirmation before taking the long trade is you want to be a little more risk averse.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

Not all retailers are equal… TFG looks like a proper short after a break and retest of the support zone. New lows coming?

Vodacom (VOD)

That R120 level is still on the radar on VOD. Friday saw the stock bounce off it rather well. Keep it on the watchlist for a potential play.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post To squeeze or not to squeeze appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas (bigger picture)

S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY looks on track to test the trendline. A few more days of upside and it’ll finally be at resistance. Where to from there? We can’t tell just yet. Although, as far as trends go, until the recent high at $430 is taken out, this is in a downtrend. So, selling some around the $410 mark with a stop at $430 could be a great risk-reward trade. Let’s see how it goes.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY move also looking to be nearing completion here. Support is at 103 – 104. Perhaps if it bounces off support and resumes its rally, we will see equites resume the downtrend? That said, let’s see if the support zone can hold first.

Gold

Gold seems fairly range bound. It’s not the world’s best chart and in truth, I can’t see a very clear easy setup here. It is starting to look a little overbought, so maybe those who are currently long could look to unload some if it gets closer to $1800. Who knows though? With all the FUD around crypto’s, and the contagion that will no doubt spring from it, we might see some panic buying in Gold once it gets above $1800. Best to stay ‘reactive’ here and not forecast too much I think.

Brent Crude Oil

No real new comments on Oil this week. It’s sticking to the range and still giving a chance to get long in my view.

USDZAR

Our downside target is now hit. Some are calling it lower to R17.00, which is entirely possible if the DXY keep diving for 103. My view here now is that we need to wait for another setup before making any new moves. The brave can probably long some here off the trendline, just keep it tight and don’t bet the farm.

Bitcoin (BTC)

At $10 000, BTC would have pulled back roughly 85% from the high made in late 2021. I’ve explained before in various historic posts how I believe the four-year cycle works. If that theory is correct, now is literally the best time to buy. No, you’re not going to get the bottom tick, yes it might drop through $15 000, hell, it might even go to zero (highly doubt that)… but if trends do what trends do, and the four-year cycle plays out, complete with total fear, panic, disbelief (all things forecast in previous posts, seriously, go look), then we need to be greedy when others are fearful. Buy Bitcoin. For more detail though, the chart below is a weekly time frame on a logarithmic price axis, with a 126-week moving average.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Another massive up-day for the ALSI on Friday. Not quite five and a half percent, but a decent three point seven at least. It has now taken out two of the previous highs in a down trend, so the ‘trend change’ alarms are ringing a little. That said, it does look overbought, and the macro risks are not yet gone. I would not be too surprised to see some weakness early next week as the market just cools off a little. In the longer-term though, South Africa is still one of the best Emerging Markets (EM) out there and EM’s are looking a lot more attractive that Developed Markets (DM) at this stage. So maybe the time for bargain hunting on the good ol’ JSE has come?

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

I pointed out AGL a week ago and it has run really very well. “AGL, BHP and GLN will soon be the bells of the ball in our view.” was exactly the line I used in fact. Now, it is time to take some money off the table here (at least if you are a trader – investors can stay put and look to buy more on pullbacks). BHG played along, but GLN did not. GLN does have a nice setup though and we’ll look at that one in a little while.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

I’m not the world’s biggest fan of pharmaceutical companies to be honest, but hey, stock markets don’t really care about my feelings now do they. I’ve pointed out the consolidation (what I think is an accumulation) pattern on APN in recent weeks for long-term investors. Here it is again. Still no breakout for the traders but holding strong and putting up all the early signs of a trend change for the longer-term investors. Keep this on the radar.

Glencore (GLN)

GLN holding the support at R102 rather well. I like this stock for a long-term play as well as a short-term long trade. Stop loss below R100, ATRx2 trailing stop or 3-day low as a moving target. Nice high risk-reward here.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

After a few rounds of being beaten by ANH, I am back and once again trying to short this stock. This time from an over-bought position in a resistance zone with a stronger ZAR as a backdrop. Let’s see how it goes this time.

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Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Buy Bitcoin appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.