Oh, and just a side note, you will notice that we used many weekly charts this week. We did this on purpose, in order to re-take stock of where we are in the medium to longer-term. Sometimes we get very focused on the day-to-day movements and we lose track of where we are. Thus, we look at some weekly charts this week to gain some broader perspective of the trends and patterns playing out in our and other markets.

Bigger picture (offshore markets)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Finally the follow through came (after some good data on Friday). Next level to clear is $430, then it’s clear skies for $461.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

This run is incredible. We think that there is likely much more upside to be had as well, as the A.I. craze is only really getting started in our view. Next target here is $371.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

ACWI breakout also finally printing a new high. Upside target is $102.

Gold

It’s still not looking great for the gold bugs, and we reiterate our call that gold will eventually (maybe in a year or two) retest the bottom of this range at $1650.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Lowest close on VIX since covid. Interesting. We mentioned last week that we might see a ‘return to pre-covid normal’ on the VIX. It might not seem like much, but to have the VIX bottom out around 10 instead of 15 is rather telling of how much less ‘fear’ is influencing the market. Time for some greed to come in and push things to way beyond where they ought to be. It’s buy time!

Brent Crude Oil

Oil remains range bound for now.

USDZAR

Geepers, can we have some reprieve please!? Although our longer-term target is around R21 to the USD, we do think that we will see a bit of a pullback on the back of stronger overall equities next week. Here’s hoping for R18.60.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

It was a wild week, but at least we ended higher. We’re bullish again this week, and although the ALSI chart looks a mess, you will see why when we look at stocks just after this. A general note on this chart though; we’re going to print new highs within the next three months.

Bidvest (BVT)

This flag formation on the daily chart has whipsawed us a few times, but once again it has given a buy signal. Maybe if we say ‘it’s buy time’ enough times this stock will finally catch a bid(vest)?

ABSA Group (ABG)

ABG has been testing and holding the R152 level for a few weeks now. We can see that this level is rather significant. A long trade here with a target at R200 would likely be a good trade. Remember, weekly charts, so it will take a long while to work out.

Anglo American (AGL)

Well it’s not exactly on the level marked in green, but it has been holding R560 like a champion for a good while now. We think it is safe to get long here and look for R760 as a target. Just keep in mind, as is the case with all upside targets, once reached you need to switch over to a trailing stop loss so that you can continue to benefit if the stock keeps trending higher.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

So, we want to say that ANH is a buy at R1025… but, nobody is buying Budweiser and it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon. So, we’ll rather say that around R1025 it looks interesting, but we need to wait for confirmation that it is in fact what it says it is, uuhm, we mean that the level holds, before getting involved. Can’t be too careful these days.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is still looking fairly bullish in our book. The bullish divergence shown last week on the daily chart does not show up on the weekly, but the stock did close the week close to the highs which has us in good spirits.

BHP Group (BHG)

BHG is trading in a nice upward slanting channel. Up through the middle of the channel and we should see the stock testing the top. Our target for now is R640.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

BTI is once again back to the lows. We reiterate our call for R584 as a downside target.

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS printed a (almost) hammer on the R239 support. This creates a pretty clear long opportunity with a great risk-reward. It’s buy time!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is forming a nice base here. We think that it might be a safe time to re-enter the long-term longs here. It’s buy time here for sure.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s buy time! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas (bigger picture)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The upper resistance looms, and the market feels like it is running out of a bit of steam. There are now also multiple counts of bearish divergence on this chart, so we are comfortable with our targets lower down. There might be some fight left in this bear market rally yet… but not much in our view. Santa might not come this year.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Is that the end of the correction on DXY? It looks like it is trying to put in a bottom and get back on the ‘strengthening’ train. It is perhaps important to stress that the support level between 103 and 104 is a very important level that has proven to be significant over a few decades. Thus, we still do think that there is a chance the market might want to go test that support. Should it turn here and not get much closer to support as what it did last week, it seems that new highs on DXY might soon be on the cards.

USDZAR

USDZAR is still on a bit of a make-or-break level here as it thoroughly tests the tertiary trend support. There is some bullish divergence between the stochastic oscillator and price at this point as well. Our thinking is that we see a strong upward push from DXY paired with a solid bounce from the USDZAR. In other words, we aim higher, to a weaker Rand.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

This might be a good time to remind you that you need to buy protection when you can, not when you need it. With some luck we could have another week of mildly stronger markets as the SPY tests its down trend line, and the VIX tick down into that 18 to 22 region. This would make a good buying opportunity for VIX calls, striking at 30 with about 6 months to expiry. Santa might not come this year and if he doesn’t, you’re going to wish you had coal (lol, poor Europe) and VIX calls.

Brent Crude Oil

$86 is a very, very important level at this point. The long trade off this level, in our view, is probably a high risk-reward setup that is worth trading. That said, given the overall macroeconomic condition of the world, oil demand is under pressure. We’ve mentioned before that we are stubbornly holding onto our views, but unless oil can hold this level and start to push higher soon, we might have to relook and reconsider our position. For now, we think this is an easy long, but we have to remain flexible and open to the idea that perhaps the party is over. Time will tell.

Deutsche Boerse DAX Index (DAX)

Speaking of Europe, the DAX looks, well, difficult to read. Given our overall view of global markets, we think that it could be a sell (short) around 14800 (if it gets that high). We note some bearish divergence as well. Maybe it has just pushed a little too much too soon? Santa might not come this year and this chart is looking like it will be very disappointed if he does not.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Well, there weren’t any moves over 4% last week, so we suppose that’s a good thing. The time has come to clear the annotations from this chart and look at it with a fresh perspective. Despite the bearishness in the macro and offshore environment, we are actually rather bullish on the local market. We are seeing more and more bullish setups and also believe that Emerging Markets will outperform the Developed Markets over the next few years. This could be driven by a shift from ‘growth’ to ‘value’ and a mad scramble for commodities and resources. South Africa, believe it or not, is well placed for that type of scenario. There is also a slight backwind of ratings agencies starting to give us the thumbs up again. It’s a confusing time to be honest, and even though Santa might not come this year, we do think that we should not overlook the buying opportunities that will create in our own market. We have been ‘relatively’ stronger, well, perhaps not in USD terms, but there is a great amount of value to be found in our market and being too bearish ‘locals’ might prove unwise.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

And just to cleanse the pallet, we present the short that is not working… Ta-daa! ANH. We may still see this work now that momentum is starting to roll over and it has not really managed to push out of the resistance zone, but we are open to stopping out and running for the hills (again) if it keeps pushing higher.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

This is a weekly chart on TFG, showing a break of support and building downside momentum. Do we see it trade back to the R60 region? Since Santa might not come this year, how many people are going to be lining up for Black Friday specials this coming weekend? Are festive season retail sales going to be strong enough to turn this entire boat around? We think not many, and no.

Sun International (SUI)

Alright, ok, time for some good news. Santa might not be coming, but local tourism surely is. Again, we look at a weekly chart, this time of SUI. We note the flat top triangle breaking to the upside and a continued post-covid recovery in the sector. Remember we’d mentioned that there is much value to be had in South Africa? Well, this is one of those undervalued and overlooked stocks (and sectors) in our view.

ABSA Bank Group (ABG)

Our local banks might be a good place to look for value as well, and ABG has broken a large range and managed to hold above the upper range extreme for some time now. We take this as bullish and think that a long trade here is rather safe.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Santa might not come this year appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas (bigger picture)

S&P 500 (SPY)

So, we’ve not hit the downside target yet and by the looks of this chart, SPY is trying to put in a short-term bottom. All indications are that we see a bit of a bounce from the lows here. It’s been a rough year so far and sentiment has gotten extremely pessimistic. This is evidenced in options positioning as well, with the vast majority of contracts trading being puts. The market being the market, is likely going to push for the ‘max pain’ trade, which is currently higher. Therefore, we believe that we are very likely in for a violent short squeeze. Odds are good that the bulls will get sucked in, chewed up and spat out in the process, but for now, we think markets will be strong at least during the first half of next week.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

The $77.34 level marked on the ACWI chart is in fact well below the pre-covid high (which was around $82). Our target in the $70 to $72 region is based on a chart we did rather long ago and thus the target still lives on our chart. Although the trend is firmly down here, we can see a similar bottoming pattern on ACWI as on SPY. The trick here, and on SPY, is to take out the pattern high (this consolidation we’ve seen over the last two weeks needs to break higher). Let’s see how it goes. We’re not removing our downside target; we are just not expecting it to be hit before a short-term bounce.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

It looks like the trend is being tested here. Technically it’s made a symmetrical triangle, but as we know, they can break either way with about equal probability. Our thinking at present is that it is likely to break lower and likely boost global equities in the process.

USDZAR

The Rand is also seemingly testing its recent trend. Should the tertiary trend line (steepest) break, we think it could retrace as far as R17.25 before finding support.

Brent Crude Oil

We’ve removed our previous annotations from this chart and only added in what we think is a large range in which oil is likely to trade for the foreseeable future. Ironically, this is still a bullish view, not only on oil, but on energy as a whole.

S&P 500 Volatility Index

The VIX is still below 35, so the wheels have not yet completely fallen off the bus. We maintain our view that above 35 things get spicey (for global equities), although we do think that in the short-term we likely see volatility subside somewhat and equities put in a bit of a relief rally.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The 60000 level has been putting up some staunch resistance, but by the looks of the tails on the two most recent candles, it won’t last too much longer. Perhaps we see 62000 next week?

ABSA Group (ABG)

With all this talk of short-term bounces and relief rallies, ABG looks like it might break out of the top of this consolidation. Once it confirms with a close above R192.52, it should make for a decent risk-reward trade on the long side.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

This short trade idea could be in trouble is the DXY breaks lower. If you chased it in, or pre-empted your short entry, remember the stop loss is above the upper end of the small range marked in yellow.

Anheuser-Bush Inbev (ANH)

Still no confirmation of the short here, but still on the radar. A stronger rand might help the short trade here actually.

BID Corporations (BID)

No directional idea or bias here, although a tight range (flat) that will likely present a good entry for a breakout trade once it pops. Keep it on the radar.

Capitec (CPI)

CPI looks to be setting up for another leg down. That said, volatility reigns supreme and should we see a strong start to the week, we could see CPI pop out of this small consolidation to the upside. Therefore, the same view must be taken as is the case on BID. No bias or directional ideas, but rather just a good setup that could trade either way, offers and good risk-reward and should be kept on the watchlist.

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

Oh no, everybody hates Dis-Chem now… well, anyway. DCP is holding support in a large range. This could be a good entry for a long trade. Stop below support and target at R35.80.

Glencore (GLN)

GLN is looking like it is going to try break above R102 for the seventh time (maybe this time is the charm?). A weaker DXY and a proper squeeze could see GLN finally shooting for the moon (aka. continuing the uptrend).

MTN (MTN)

MTN might be off the hook to buy TKG, but the chart does not look very pretty. As it stands now, R130 is putting up some stiff resistance and could be used as a stop loss for a short trade to R92.

Naspers (NPN)

Just an update on the NPN trade and a reminder that the good trades usually take some time to work out. It might be wise to trail the stop loss down though.

Traders meetup

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Volatility reigns appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

All Country World Index (ACWI)

We use the ACWI as our benchmark for the Managed Offshore Portfolio, thus we track it rather closely. Some time ago we indicated a potential downside target that frankly, would amount to what most would call a crash. With recent market action and macro drivers in mind, we still think that this downside target is a fairly probable outcome. We note now thought that the ACWI is approaching a key support level. This key support level will set up a high probability trading setup in both directions, although our bias is bearish. Below $84 and it’s look out below!

S&P 500 (SPY)

Well, this chart seems to be working out according to plan. There might be some violent buying (and volatility) here as the market tries to defend a key support level, but we are feeling very confident about our downside target of $370 – $360 being reached. At some point we will be presented with a fantastic buying opportunity, although there is likely much pain to come before bargain hunting can begin.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

By now our sentiments are pretty clear, so there is not too much to add about the QQQ chart. As is the case with the indices (and ETFs) above, most of the volume is still trading to the downside. If the $285 level fails, look out below!

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

We’ve included both a weekly and daily chart of the DXY in order to contextualise the recent move. When last we posted about the DXY it was looking to break out of the small symmetrical triangle formation shown on the daily chart. That move has now taken place and the DXY has now reached what seems to be a rather significant horizontal resistance level. It is interesting to note that the only other times that the DXY has been above this level ($104 – $105) was during the 1980’s recession and the dot comm bubble… interesting times surely do lie ahead.

Gold

We use a weekly chart on gold here, most likely because it is the one that most suits our bias (just a disclaimer). Also because we have had this symmetrical triangle formation setup on the chart for many months now. It would appear that the formation has had a break out and has now completed the retest of that break out. We expect that gold will make a run for a price target in excess of $2100 in the coming months.

Brent Crude Oil

As you are probably sick of hearing now, we’ve been very bullish oil and energy for some time. Nothing has changed. Aggressive traders could probably use $121 as a stop loss and $130 as a target for new longs entered into under $123.

Bitcoin (BTC)

It’s not looking good hodlers… the break of the 126 week moving average has historically been met with some violent downside in the short-term. We mark the zone between the previous all-time high ($20k), and the primary trend line (+-$15k) as a target zone for the current bearish market action. Hodlers… look out below!

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH is presenting a very similar as BTC (no surprises there), with the key difference being that ETH is already testing the previous all-tine high level as support. A failure here would likely see price drop as low as $800.

USDZAR

Well, ok then. The events of last week has sent USDZAR straight up. R16.40 seems to be the most logical target at this stage. Let’s see how this week goes.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The retest of the channel has led to a sharp move lower. Now the ALSI is sitting just below what looks like a last ditch flag support. We think this level has broken and downside is definitely coming. Look out below!

Naspers (NPN)

We flagged NPN as a short last week and then very promptly changed our mind (in this tweet) on Monday after some news from China. It does seem that much of that explosively positive sentiment faded in the last two days of last week. That said, NPN does have earnings coming up and shareholders are keenly focused on managements plans to ‘unlock value’. We are now cautiously long of this stock with an eye on results later this month and how management communicates their plans to unlock value for shareholders (as the Tencent discount is pretty massive).

Jubilee Metals Group (JBL)

JBL is one of those stocks that we love to own, but has been going sideways and lower for about a year now. We’re keeping an eye on the R2.70 level and would add to long-term portfolios there, although below R2.70 and (at least in the short-term) we could see some pain. Fundamentally though, we still really like this stock over the long-term, so a sudden low volume selloff would be welcomed as we would use it as an opportunity to add to our position.

Sasol (SOL)

The trend is your friend! It’s worth trying to pick some up on a retest of the trend line, although be careful of that trend line breaking as that would likely be used as a trailing stop for most traders (and other participants) who have been long for some time now.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

ANH was recently flagged as one of the most undervalued stocks globally by a large investment bank. We’re not so sure about that, but we do note that is is trading on/near key support. For the braver traders out there willing to take longs in the current environment, ANH offers a great risk-reward trade to the top of the range.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

The trend is once again your friend! Unless you’re long APN, then you’re in trouble. The range we showed last week has broken and APN is grinding lower as expected. Trailing stops from here for those who are short.

Astral Foods (ARL)

The ARL reversal seems to be underway and it looks like the bottom of the range is calling! Look out below!

Life Healthcare (LHC)

Another long for the brave souls. LHC seems to be offering a great risk-reward trade off the R18 historic support. Just make sure to keep a tight stop loss.

Mondi PLC (MNP)

MNP has broken the flag (and wedge) formation we showed last week and seems to be headed lower. A trailing stop loss would probably be the best way to manage this trade.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

As we said last week, TCP is long-standing one of our favourite stocks, but these (hips) charts don’t lie and TCP is starting to feel the (bearish) vibe. In truth, given the economic conditions currently present and the difficulties on the horizon, TCP might experience a bit of a slowdown in revenues. Not because they don’t have a great business, but rather because the environment in which that great business operates is likely to become more strained. From a trade perspective, last week was the time to get short for this break and retest, so it might not be worth chasing now. Perhaps if the R38 support fails there will be another chance to enter into a high probability trade. Patience.

Herenya Managed Portfolios

We’ve not made too much noise about this (yet), but Herenya now has three portfolios that clients can invest in. Our performance has been rather good (if we must say so ourselves). In time we will build a dedicated page on our website for our managed portfolios, although for now we would just like to make our latest fact sheets available for download. Below are some details about our managed portfolios, as well as the latest fact sheets for each. Please contact us if you would like to invest in one or more of our portfolios.

Herenya Offshore Long-Term Equity Portfolio

Herenya South Africa Long-Term Equity Portfolio

Herenya Active Trading Portfolio

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Look out below! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

There is no real setup here for now. We are cautious of a possible correction move back to the 50 (then 89) day moving average. That would not be a significant move in terms of the primary trend though. For now, the bullish trend is strong. My two cents… the Fed prints so much, for so long, that eventually when all the Covid-induced supply chain bottlenecks ease up and inflation slows, the world will be so happy that it just keeps pushing the ‘everything bubble’ for another decade. Perhaps that is the complacency that will eventually bring equity markets down..? Time will tell.

Dow Jones Transportation Index (DTX)

Weekly chart.
Is that a bull flag that just triggered a long?

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

That $93 level must be made from stone. The high probability (best risk-reward) short-term trade here is now the short trade to $89. Not one that we would rush to put on, at least not until DXY can get back below the 200 day moving average.

USDZAR

So alright, the USDZAR is now above the 200 day moving average. If the DXY (above) can finally get above $93, and this 200 day moving average on the USDZAR can hold, the longer-term trend change looks like it’s on the cards.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

I hate to say it, but bearishness begone! This chart has strictly speaking triggered a long trade. We’ve also seen that global net flows into equity funds ex-US has surpassed flows into US equity funds on a weekly basis for the first time since September last year. Perhaps it’s time for emerging markets to catch a bid?

Shoprite (SHP)

Very nice breakout and retest of this flat top triangle on SHP. Entering now does not offer the absolute optimal entry point, although if you are willing to sit in a trending stock for a few weeks, SHP is likely a good pick.

Anheuser Busch Inbev (ANH)

We’ll probably post a range of updates on this trade in the coming weeks. Back to the top of the range with a stop loss below R875.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

We were trail stopped out of this trade a short while ago although have to say that it is looking like it wants to make another break higher. Perhaps a smaller, more speculative long position this time?

Mediclinic International (MEI)

Over the last year or so MEI has bounced well (top the top of the range) from this support zone. Granted this is no the absolute bottom of the range, but it is a significant horizontal support from which we see a shift in momentum towards bullishness.

MTN (MTN)

Weekly chart here to show some perspective of where this stock once was. We think that over time (as in, over the next few years) we might see MTN back to it’s highs. In the very short-term though, we’ll probably see some consolidation for a few weeks as the stock tries to find a foothold above the R120 level.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

TFG finds itself back at the bottom of the range it has been in for a few months now. Ths presents two trading opportunities. First, the range trade back to the top of the range. Second, an entry point into a longer-term trend following trade. Failure to hold this bottom support though would invalidate this trade idea and have us relooking at a long around the R136 level.

Telkom (TKG)

Our TKG trade from last week has not worked. There is a good chance that the 200 day moving average could be support, although below that, all bets are off.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post 12 charts we’re watching appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

The break out came and it went higher. After market close in the U.S. on Friday, Futures traded up and closed at the highs. Plus with the little crypto pump over the weekend, odds are good we see more highs in the week ahead.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

One range to define them all… nothing to see, nothing to do. We wait patiently for small caps to pick a direction.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Alright, looks like we’re having another go at the $93 and $93.50 levels. We cannot stress the importance of that resistance zone enough. Once the DXY gets through there, things will get interesting. Speculative positioning among fund managers has also finally shifted to net long for the first time since early last year.

USDZAR

That 200 day moving average kind of looks like the cheeto holding the door closed at this stage.

Brent Crude Oil

Maybe this time we’ll get a chance to buy in our support zone.

Ethereum (ETH)

Falling wedge playing out nicely.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Finally the bounce from the $35k. Once above $64k, expect the madness.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The resistance holds.. for now. The high probability trade is still toward the downside, but there is no compelling entry point for it now.

Anheuser Busch Inbev (ANH)

We pointed out ANH as a potential buy off the R880 support last week. R880 was tested and it seems the bounce has begun. Also, a much weaker ZAR will help this trade.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

Not quite all the way to the bottom of the range, but BTI is looking good for the bounce to the top of the range.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

TCP setup from last week is starting to play out a little. This is a trend following trade, so trailing stops and heaps of patience are needed.

And that is all we have for this week. As usual, if you would like to know more about trading with us, our very competitive brokerage fees (epsecially on offshore trading) or joining our community, please feel free to contact us and we’ll be in touch.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources

The post Setups are sparse appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Interestingly we say the U.S. Dollar weaken during the last week. We’ve been eyeing a break out from below the current resistance for some time, although the break out has not come. Should we see another week of Dollar strength, that could translate into strong performances on ‘local’ stocks such as banks and retailers. An interesting week no doubt lies ahead.

We remain cautious of global equity markets in general as we are seeing a number of mixed signals. To be specific, the tech space has been probably the primary driver behind market performance over the last few years and it is here that we are starting to see conflicting signals.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

Daily chart.
Nothing too fancy here right now. SPY has been trading in a small range that could offer a decent risk-reward trade when it breaks. At this stage we are agnostic on which way this might break. Probably a slightly higher probability for a break lower, although we will wait for a trigger of sorts before taking any short-term trades here.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Daily chart.
The IWM is still somewhat of the canary in the coalmine for us. Looking at how it is trading in the range, the fact that it got stuck under the shorter and medium-term moving averages in the middle of the range is something we consider to be bearish. Again, there is no real action for us to take on this index ETF until either one of the range extremes are breached. Momentum is seemingly turing bullish, but there is no high probability entry for us here just yet. So we wait and see.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Daily chart.
This is where things start to get a little confusing. Well, not so much on QQQ. Looking at this chart we note some bearish divergence. If looking at shorter timeframes, we will likely be able to find a valid short setup as well. Market Breadth is still somewhat weak and if eventually that weakness catches up to the mega-cap tech stocks, this could get really ugly really quickly.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Weekly chart.
So this is really were the mixed signals start.

On the left, we have a flat top triangle that has triggered a long trade. There are also signs of bullish momentum and the possibility of a buy signal being generated to support the bullish break from the triangle formation. On the right, we have a rising wedge formation with evidence of bearish divergence. So which chart do we trade? We suppose that given the uncertainty, it would be wise to trade neither of them. It will be interesting to see in a few weeks which one was in fact the correct setup.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Weekly chart.
The $93 level holds again! There is some bearish divergence too. Perhaps over the coming weeks (leading up to Jackson Hole) we see more Dollar weakness? This would play out well for ‘local’ stocks.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still looking very constructive. Interesting to note that the U.S. now buys more oil from Russia than ever before, making Russia the biggest international oil supplier to U.S.. Our view is unchanged. Energy demand is continuing to pick up as the world economy is coming out of lockdown. Supply and demand… as energy demand continues to increase over the next year and supply is not really matching the demand increase… price has only one way to go.

Gold

Weekly chart.
Not much has changed on this chart over the last week. Our view is still somewhat bullish given the ‘inflation is not transitory’ narrative.

USDZAR

We’ve got mixed feelings on the USDZAR as well. When looking at the weekly chart, it appears that we have a decent setup for some longer-term weakness. In the short-term though, should the DXY come off in the coming weeks, we might see a stronger ZAR as a result. In the medium-term though, USDZAR seems to be going through a significant shift of momentum towards weakness. As things are right now, we’d encourage investors to buy USD.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Weekly logarithmic chart.
It might be a little too early to talk, but it looks like after a few fake outs and scary moments, the $35k level held. Onwards and upwards from here?

Ethereum (ETH)

Weekly logarithmic chart.
Looks like that falling wedge formation is playing out. Lots of buying happening over the weekend. Perhaps phase two of the 2021 general crypto moon rally is about to start?

U.S. stock picks

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Weekly chart.
AMD had a huge break out last week. We think that this stock, and other semiconductor and microprocessor manufacturers, could continue to see a decent rally on the back of higher cryptocurrency prices.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Weekly chart.
AMAT has not broken out just yet, although this setup does look like it wants to break to new highs.

Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)

Weekly chart.
SIMO also put in a break away week and earns it’s spot on our bullish watchlist.

Five Below (FIVE)

Weekly chart.
A rather decent looking long setup on FIVE as well. We’d likely be buyers above $200 with a trend following, trailing stop loss.

Texas Instruments (TXN)

Weekly chart.
Another semiconductor manufacturer, another bullish setup. A break to new highs would trigger a trend following long trade for us.

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)

Weekly chart.
We pointed out GBT as a potential short trade last week. So far so good. Below $26.82 targets $16.59.

Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO)

Weekly chart.
AGIO on the way back to the bottom of the range. Not too much meat left in this trade unfortunately, although aggressive traders could sell below the 89 week moving average with a target price at the bottom of the range.

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Weekly chart.
WFC could be setting up a nice bull flag here, which in turn could lead to a decent break out from below the 200 week moving average. This is a stock to watch.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Daily chart.
All the way to the top of the range again. In truth, this charts looks rather constructive. The highest probability trade here (with the highest possible risk-reward) would be to short it back to the bottom of the range. Your stop loss will have to be right above the highs made on Thursday though. You don’t want to be caught short if this thing breaks out.

ABSA Group (ABG)

Daily chart.
ABG is ticking a lot of boxes for a long trade. A stronger ZAR in the short-term will be a great backwind for this stock (and other banks, financials and retailers in general). Target for the long trade at R150, with a stop loss at R130, makes for a decent 1:2 risk-reward.

Anheuser Busch Inbev (ANH)

Daily chart.
ANH dropping like a stone. We like the idea of buying the R880 support.

Discovery (DSY)

Daily chart.
DSY looks like it is in trouble here. Only a stronger ZAR can save it now (jokes). This chart does look like it wants to go test the R105 level in the coming weeks. Still a greater than 1:2 risk-reward on the table here for the short trade (stop loss above R120, target price at R105).

Shoprite (SHP)

Daily chart.
Retailers have been wonderfully strong of late and SHP is no exception. This looks like it could be a large ascending triangle formation that it building towards a break out. In a strong ZAR environment, retailers might prove to be a good long play.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

Daily chart.
TCP is turning out to be one of those stocks that you always want to buy, but always think that it’s run a little hard and you will buy in a pullback… only for that pullback never to come and you sit on the sidelines wishing you had just bought the stock. From a trend following perspective, it does seem that the opportunity to get on the bus is finally here.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

Daily chart.
No trigger just yet, but TFG is worth having on the watchlist as a potential break out long trade in a strong ZAR environment.

Telkom (TKG)

Daily chart.
TKG offering a nice long entry off the primary trend line. Clear stop loss makes for a good risk-reward trade.

Truworths (TRU)

Daily chart.
TRU also looking like it is going to be a winner in a stronger ZAR environment. Not as clear a setup as TFG, but a volatility based trailing stop loss could be the play here for a small long position.

And that is all we have for this week. As usual, if you would like to know more about trading with us, our very competitive brokerage fees (epsecially on offshore trading) or joining our community, please feel free to contact us and we’ll be in touch.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Mixed signals appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

veld.app (providing an online store / technology solution), together with Food Lovers Market Fourways (organising parcels) and powelltronics.com (logistics management / delivery), have put together grocery parcels that they are flying down to Durban (KZN) to bring relief to those who need it most. I want to encourage every reader of this blog to support this initiative by purchasing/donating one of these parcels.

Our nation has proven time and again that nothing can stand in our way. And that no matter how dark times might be, there is a light of love and hope that shines in each and every one of us.

And on that note, let’s look at some charts shall we?

Offshore trade ideas

I want to preface the offshore section this week by gently reminder our readers that Herenya offers very low cost offshore trading and investment accounts ($2 a trade in US markets) and can help you with offshore transfers, tax clearance and managed offshore portfolios. In fact, our offshore model portfolio has performed rather robustly since its inception in March 2020.

Please feel free to contact us if you would like more information on our managed long-term investment account options.

Ok, let’s get into the shorter-term trading charts.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The last week was marred with drastically deteriorating market breadth. Fewer and fewer stocks are trading higher on a daily (and cumulative) basis and thus is appears that the U.S. market is preparing for a pull back. Our base expectation is that the SPY should pull back to at least the 50 day moving average before potentially finding any support. We’ve been buying the dip for a few weeks now, although given the current market breadth, this is a dip that we have shorted.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

IWM has moved toward the bottom of the range beautifully. Now we need to watch for a break or a bounce from this level. In either scenario, there is a high probability trading setup. Take note that usually these types of rectangular price formations are trend continuation patterns, so the bias should be bullish. Although unless market breadth improves (aka. advancers outnumber decliners) in the coming week, IWM might be the ‘leader’ on the way down.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Since we’re talking about pullbacks, QQQ is looking ripe for a short.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

It seems our dream of a pull back in the DXY is but a meme. DXY looking like it’s getting ready to break up toward $93.50.

USDZAR

I guess we’ll have to see what happens here. Personally, I think it’s a good time to buy some USD. The outcome of this chart will be determined by a few things; how the international investment community perceive the current situation in South Africa after a weekend of digesting the news, and how the DXY trades in the coming week. If we see a stronger USD and a general risk-off appetite for South Africa, I think that 200 day moving average might be broken and the ZAR could end above R15. Let’s see.

Brent Crude Oil

Semi-decent pullback last week. OPEC+ have over the weekend decided to increase production, so hold onto your butts because we might see Oil flushing out the weak longs.

South African trade ideas

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS is looking good for a short trade to the bottom of the range around R239. Decent risk-reward if you can get in around Friday’s close or higher.

Anheuser-busch Inbev (ANH)

Not the absolute best entry for this trade, but still a fairly decent risk-reward on offer.

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

Not really a trade idea per se, but if Loch Ness over here can keep it’s head out the water while the rest are drowning, this is going to be a stock to watch when the ‘recovery trade’ finally comes around. In other words, if DCP keeps consolidating sideways while the macro and micro-environments are pulling back… when both offshore and local markets pump again, this stock is probably going to fly! Note though, that is only if this current consolidation between R30.50 and R32.50 does not break down while other markets (and specifically, other retailers) are falling.

Cashbuild (CSB)

Another front-runner in the ‘recover trade’ will be CSB. The brave seemingly have already started positioning for an end to the unrest and the enormous rebuilding efforts that will no doubt take place. CSB is well positioned to benefit from small business and private individuals repairing and rebuilding damaged buildings in the coming year.

Discovery (DSY)

I’ve bailed on the long trade here and might even consider going short below the R120 level.

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is looking very weak here and is ticking the boxes for a secondary down trend. Weaker Oil prices might aid the short trade here as well. Stop at R220, target at R180, try get an entry above R205 to make it worth it.

Support KZN this Mandela Day

Once again, if you are in a position to make a donation to support KZN this Mandela Day, please do so by buying/donating an essential grocery parcel for a family of four via the veld.app store. Last year I worked on the Say Siyabonga project with some wonderfully amazing people, and some of those very same people are behind this initiative to bring critical food supply to those who need it most in the wake of recent events. Every donation helps.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Support KZN this Mandela Day appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

After all those ups and downs last week, the market didn’t really move all that much in the end. The SPY has made a nice clear range though that could be traded once broken out.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Our initial attempt at going long on IWM did not go so well, although IWM has set up again for another attempt at the long trade. A break above $225.76 would trigger a trend following long trade.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ momentum seems to be fading a little, although it still managed to close above last week’s key level. We still favour the long trade here, with a three-day low as the stop loss.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (IYY)

The IYY setup looks very similar to that on SPY. Once again a simple range break will be the trigger, most likely for a trend following trade.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

That little range break last week (to the downside) played out and reached its target. The 50 day moving average held up well and now SOX is looking to break back into last week’s range. There is some bullish divergence as well. Overall our thinking here is that a break above 3208 could probably be bought.

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX)

The trend is strong with this one! A warning sign here for us is how steep this trend has become over recent months. That said, as long as the bottom channel holds (can be used as a trailing stop loss), we’re happy to take a new long position here in the coming week.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

The VIX tagged 20 and was promptly rejected. Overall the market is still clearly feeling very comfortable. Our view is that we’ll likely see a lower VIX and higher equity markets in the week ahead.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The flag formation we’ve been watching on the DXY has finally given a clear bearish break. It seems that the fear created by talk of higher capital gains taxed in the US were short lived and that the power of the brrr is overwhelming. With all those new Dollars in circulation it’s hard to imagine any other outcome, other than a weaker USD. This break should be supportive of precious metals, commodities in general and emerging markets.

USDZAR

Well, after trying to fight it for a while, it seems that the USDZAR wants to continue to strengthen and fighting the trend is unwise. In fact, as stated earlier, trend following is often the easiest way. On the weekly chart a major support has been broken and it looks like the USDZAR is heading down to that historic large range support. On the daily, we can see that a small triangle pattern has formed. Looking at that triangle more closely on the 4 hour chart, it seems like a decent trend continuation setup. A break below R14.20 would likely see the USDZAR move closer to that much coveted R13.20 level.

Gold

The gold bounce is underway. Although, the 89 day moving average put up a bit of a fight. We remain bullish Gold, unless the $1765 level is broken.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil is holding the 50 day moving average well. We could probably take some longs here, looking for $69.60 as a target price.

Bitcoin (BTC)

So much for the bullish break above the previous high. That goes to show why these crypto’s need to be traded on weekly charts. We remain bullish and hope that this is a deep enough dip to buy. Around $35k would be a really strong buy in our view.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH has also not followed through as we would have thought. Nonetheless, we remain bullish for the remainder of the year and will use a pullback as a chance to add to longs. If we could see $1420 again, that would be a strong buy for us.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Oh to be a trend following trader… the ALSI is making a symmetrical triangle and has found support in the ‘buying zone’. Given some risk-on context, our thinking is that we see the ALSI break higher in the coming week and trade to new highs.

FirstRand (FSR)

FSR is back to being nowhere. As long as R49.55 holds, we remain long and patient.

Naspers (NPN)

R3337 is the last line of defence for our long NPN trade. Interestingly, it is also a potential double bottom with some early signs of a bullish momentum shift.

AECI (AFE)

AFE is almost ready to start pushing new highs. We’re switching to a trailing stop loss from here.

Nedbank (NED)

NED broke out of its big range and has pulled back to test it. Once again, this setup is looking really attractive to us. The risk-reward here is very good.

DRD Gold (DRD)

We’re moving our stop loss to entry and letting DRD run.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

CFR broke out of it’s range, but fell right back into it. As long as we don’t see CFR trading below the 89 day moving average, we should see the bullish trend continue.

Anheuser Busch Inbev (ANH)

The 89 day moving average was broken and it seems the move to R1100 is on it’s way.

Blue Label Telecoms (BLU)

Decent opportunity to trade against the trend on BLU here. We’ll have to keep an eye on it to see how it behaves around R3.95. It might be a nice buy down there, although right now it is too early to tell. If you’re not brave (or stupid) enough to short it, the wise thing to do would be to wait for R3.95 and re-evaluate when it gets there.

Bidvest (BVT)

BVT is in a decent looking up trend. We note a hammer candle formation, on a key support level. This could make for a decent long entry for trend following traders.

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

DCP trend following long trade. It spent some time in the ‘buying zone’ and has now broken out of a flat top triangle price pattern. Momentum is in the middle of nowhere, but could swing bullish if DCP sees another few up days.

Sanlam (SLM)

SLM is trying hard to change its trend. It is currently testing the bottom of the rectangle it has been trading in for a good few months. Taking a long here would offer an extremely high risk-reward opportunity. The stop loss would be a daily close below the rectangle low, with potential upside targets at the upper end of the rectangle (range) and potentially all the way up to R74 if the rectangle breaks higher.

Sasol (SOL)

We like SOL above the R234 level because the trend has been really strong and it keeps making new highs. It is our feeling that the new highs can be bought into. For context, the weekly chart shows how significant the R234 level is. SOL is a buy here with a target price of R300. If this truly is a longer-term trend change, do not be surprised if SOL is back in the R400 zone within the next 3 years.

Tiger Brands (TBS)

TBS has been range bound for some time now and much like BVT, it has made a hammer candle on a key support level. It is also showing early signs on a bullish momentum shift. This could be a decent long trade to the top of the range.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Trend following for the win! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

Alright, so we wanted new highs and we got new highs. Where to from here? Looking at this chart right now, we actually don’t have a view on the SPY. The last daily candle signals indecisiveness on this instrument, which is sort of how we feel about it right now too. Perhaps it is time to clear this chart of all drawing tools and relook at it with a fresh perspective in the new week? Momentum wise, SPY is still looking strong. Our target is still $420.69. Patience is key.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

We’ve mentioned before that we consider SOX a bit of a leader to QQQ, so we’re watching carefully for a potential turnaround here. You’ll notice further below that most major U.S. indices are looking rather bullish. Thus, we need to be patient with any thoughts of bearishness and allow the market to direct our actions. That’s a very long way of saying that the range indicated on the SOX chart below could offer a nice against the trend entry. Bullish momentum seems to be fading a little and the market might be gearing up for a bit of a pull back. That said, we will trade a break of this index ETF in any direction. In other words, either a bullish or bearish break from that range is worth trading. Whichever way this index goes, patience is key.

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX)

DTX has also gone a little flat over the last week. We also note that here too, momentum is starting to shift towards the bearish side of things. Perhaps it’s time for DTX to test the 50 day moving average again?

Russell 2000 (IWM)

We looked at a badly drawn Head and Shoulders pattern on IWM last week, which would probably take it down to the blue trend line if it does play out. This week though we note that the MACD has generated a buy signal and that price might just have broken out of a pennant formation. For now, this creates a great risk-reward long trade. Stop loss below $215.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

A nice clean break to new highs on QQQ. There is only really one trade to do here, which is long with a stop loss under $338.

Brent Crude Oil

Although the last two daily candles are not the most bullish, we do have a clear break of a tertiary down trend, complimented by a full range of buy signals on the momentum oscillators. We are bullish on oil and will use weakness as an opportunity to take long trades. Perhaps one more test of the 50 day moving average before the push to the $69 to $71 region?

Palladium

A very nice clean break here on Palladium. This bullish break is going to be supportive of PGM stocks.

Gold

Gold is bouncing well off the support level. It looks at is $1848 is very likely to be tested in the coming weeks. The real question is whether or not this is the start of a longer-term trend change?

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is still channel bound. A break from this channel should offer a good trading opportunity, although we need to be a little patient to see which way it wants to go. Those who like risk could probably take a long here with a very tight stop loss with aim set on the upper end of the channel. For the less risky traders, patience is key here. The more responsible way to trade this would be to wait for a confirmed break.

USDZAR

The support failed and the ZAR firmed up. It appears that the down trend (strengthening Rand) is here to stay for some time after all. It is interesting to note though, that the most recent two daily candles forms an harami candlestick formation. Generally, this is a reversal signal. Do we see the USDZAR bounce to test the support level before continuing the down trend? You’re welcome to leave your thoughts in the comments below.

Bitcoin (BTC)

First, perspective:

Then, looking at the chart; the bullish break from the triangle shown last week seems to have failed. This opens BTC to the possibility of a pullback to around the $35k region. As crazy and as scary as that sounds, it would not be historically out of the ordinary for BTC. We remain very bullish on BTC for the remainder of 2021 and continue to anticipate considerably higher prices, thus we welcome a pullback and aim to use it as a buying opportunity.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bit of a failed break. Once again, weakness here would be treated as a buying opportunity for us. Just keep in mind that cryptocurrencies are wildly volatile, so it is best to trade it, or buy it, without the use of leverage on a trusted exchange like VALR.com.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Destination moon! We’ll do another dedicated post about cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks. In the meantime, so far our Which cryptocurrency to buy in 2021 post is aging well.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The ALSI is looking rather bullish here. It’s making higher highs and has a full range of buy signals on the momentum oscillators. The trend is strong with this one.

ABSA Group (ABG)

ABG is still in a nice up trend. The highest probability entry was the break above the 50 day moving average on Thursday, although it would seem that there is still some upside left before it runs into resistance around R136.

AECI (AFE)

AFE has bounced out of the buying zone. The trend is your friend and patience is key. We could be in this trade for a good few weeks.

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

The AGL move as made it up to the previous high. A trailing stop loss from here would be the best way to manage this trade.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

Piercing line candlestick formation, along with early signs of a bullish momentum shift with a proper backwind from Palladium. AMS, and other PGM stocks, are looking solid for longs in the week ahead.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Gold stocks in general are on the hot list for next week. Should ANG get above the 50 day moving average, it should easily break the day moving average as well. We’d like to see ANG break above R350 and make a run for R400.

Anheuser Busch Inbev SA (ANH)

ANH above the 89 day moving average (R980) could make a run for R1100.

Astral Foods (ARL)

ARL has broken above both the short-term and long-term moving averages. The brief pullback after the breakout was ended with a bullish engulfing candle. Stop loss below the swing lows which can be changed to a trailing stop loss once ARL breaches R165. Liquidity is sometimes an issue here though, so trade it small.

BHP Billiton (BHP)

BHP is still lagging behind AGL. Momentum wise, BHP is starting to look better. Once BHP has traded up to R480, we’ll switch to a trailing stop loss. Patience is key though, we need to give this trade the time it needs to work.

BID Corporation (BID)

BID is looking really good. Also a somewhat illiquid stock to trade, but a long here with a stop below R280 could work out well.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

The CFR breakout is off to a great start. A nice clean break and back test. Bullish momentum boxes are also ticked.

Capitec (CPI)

We’re still long CPI with our initial target at R1495. A stronger ZAR and general risk-on sentiment should be supportive of this trade.

DRD Gold (DRD)

DRD is looking really good for a long entry above R14.72. Perhaps the BTC shock over the weekend will drive the Gold price higher, which will play into the hands of gold stocks. DRD presents a really high risk-reward long trade here.

Discovery (DSY)

DSY is looking really good as well. Momentum starting to fire off buy signals, the range has broken. Once it gets above the moving averages, we think it trades up to R155 (first target). DSY looks like a simple trend following trade here.

Exxaro (EXX)

EXX broke overhead resistance around R180 for the third time. This time around though, the previous resistance, now support, has been tested twice without failing. This presents a high risk-reward long trade.

FirstRand (FSR)

Our FSR trade was almost stopped out, but seems to be back on track (and in the money) once more. We note now that the MACD has given a buy signal and a few more green days will likely see the MACD line cross over 0, which will reinforce our bullishness on FSR.

Gold Fields (GFI)

This consolidation above the 50 and 89 day moving averages, paired with our bullish view on Gold itself, makes for a decent long trade on GFI. Initial target is R159, then R170. Should Gold manage to change it overall trend, we could see GFI up at the R250 levels again in a few months.

Glencore (GLN)

GLN is showing some bullish divergence and both the MACD and Stochastic oscillators have triggered buy signals. Logn trades from here can have a stop loss below R57.

Growthpoint Properties (GRT)

GRT is holding above the longer-term moving averages rather well. We continue to think that local property stocks are offering value at the moment. Longer-term traders and investors could consider adding GRT to their portfolios at current levels.

Harmony Gold Mining (HAR)

Following the narrative of Gold and gold stocks in general, we like HAR for a long trade with an eye on the R80 level as a potential target.

Impala Platinum (IMP)

IMP will no doubt benefit from the Palladium (breakout) rally. The trend is very strong here. Hard stop loss below the swing low (also the 20 day moving average) which can be set to a trailing stop once in the money by Average True Range x 2.

Massmart (MSM)

Pennant price pattern with early signs of a bullish momentum shift. Should the ZAR keep strengthening, local retailers should benefit in general. The trend on MSM is rather strong too, so this could make for an opportune time to get long of the stock. Stop loss below the pennant support.

Nedbank Group (NED)

Patience is key. We waited a long time for this range break on NED and now finally all the boxes are ticked. Our first target is R167, with a three-day-low stop loss.

Prosus (PRX)

PRX has been rather respectful of this support level around R1600. We like the high risk-reward on offer for a long trade from here, potentially back to the highs of R1900.

Remgro (REM)

Once again patience is key. Finally REM broke resistance and it looks like the trend change is on. We like REM for an addition to longer-term trading accounts and portfolios.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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