Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

This rally feels a little long in the tooth, but it’s not for us to decide when it ends. A trailing stop loss is advised for those with long positions. For those looking to short, perhaps around $461 could offer a decent risk-reward, although for now we don’t think standing in front of the bus is a good idea. You could put up a tertiary trendline on the move from around June and use that as a potential short entry (or stop loss if you are long). Either way, dance close to the door.

Philidelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX is still spending time hugging the upper end of the channel. We’d like to see it test the lower band, but it seems that we will need to be patient. You could probably put a mid-channel line in and use that as a trigger for any new trades here (aka. the short trade to the lower end of the channel). Just note that trading against the trend could be bad for your health.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

See our comments on SPY. ‘Don’t fight the trend’ is probably the only thing we can say here. Well, we will say that we think this has gone too far, but we’ve tried that a few times and have not been right yet (at least not recently). So, we will be patient and wait for the market to lead the way.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is looking good to hold the $78.85 level and make a push for $87.35.

Gold

Gold pulled back a little in the second half of the week, but overall the move toward the recent highs still seems to be in play. We would be buyers on weakness here, at least for the next few weeks.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY bounced off $99.50 and smacked right into $101. It’s too early to really be able to tell, but we think that we might see the Dollar get really strong again in the near future (aka. get and hold above $101 and head for $103). Will it test the highs around $114 again..? Maybe. It won’t happen fast if it does, but it is possible in a scenario where global economic conditions continue to deteriorate and investors are looking for safety. We also have to be mindful that we could see the U.S. stop with the hikes, which will attract capital into longer-term U.S. Government Bonds, which not only could be a good trade in itself, but also drive much strength for the Dollar.

EURUSD

Forex traders… are we seeing a good short here? Let us know what you think by tweeting us.

USDZAR

The USDZAR is forming a bit of a base here by the looks of it. We think we see some Rand weakness in the week to come.

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South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

You can see what our thinking is by looking at the chart. The last two weeks have been, well, not in line with our thinking. So, we stay open to the idea that is might just keep pushing higher, but we really still don’t have any reason to believe that the market is bound to go higher. In other words, we remain bearish.

Sasol (SOL)

Oil price looking bullish, Rand looking weaker… spells good times for SOL if you ask us. As long as this base holds (green line), then we should be good to stay long.

Tiger Brands (TBS)

This little bear flag setup on TBS looking like it is starting to get going now. R135 calling?

Anglo American (AGL)

It’s beginning to work! There is a lot of upside in this trade in our view, so be patient and give it the space and time it needs.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN closed at the highs on Friday, breaking the overhead resistance (not drawn, but visible in the form of that thin dotted blue line) and opening for the next leg higher. R200 then R210 as short-term upside targets. R230 and R240 as medium-term upside targets.

City Lodge Hotels (CLH)

The CLH trade is working very well. We do think that there is more upside to be had here over the coming months, but perhaps taking some (a third, or even half) of the money off the table is not entirely a bad idea.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Staying flexible appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Now, yes, we did say this a few weeks ago and the market has remained persistently strong. Relatively at least… U.S. markets are slightly higher, but locally markets are slightly lower. So, no real fireworks just yet. Perhaps the momentum finally shifts down, and we see the market come off a little? Particularly in the over-hyped tech sector. Let’s look at some charts and get a better idea of why we’re thinking what we’re thinking.

*Also, please just note that as usual, the offshore indices we chart are in fact ETFs of those indices as those are tradeable. If you are not trading offshore for only $2 a trade, click on that open account button. Top right. You got it. Ok, time for charts.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

This is ironically one of the charts that is not so clear to us right now. The levels marked in yellow are our up and downside targets. We think down before up and it should be noted that if $418.31 doesn’t hold, we could see this push to $400. Also, that does look like a double top, does it not?

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ is a lot more clear to us than SPY. Once again we see the double top, but this time it is in fact directly below the resistance level we pointed out a few months ago. It feels like this bullish move has now run its course and it’s time to wobble a little. Our thinking is that we will likely see QQQ come off to test the previous significant horizontal level (also marked in yellow) at $333.57.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX found some resistance at the top of the channel. Momentum is shifting toward the downside, and if you squint just right you might see a little head and shoulders pattern. Look out below! Time to wobble.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Friday came along and said woah! It looks like that support at $101.30 is going to be tested once more. The question we are asking ourselves is ‘are we forming a base here or are we forming a flat?’. In other words, does $101.30 hold and this is the long-drawn-out starting phase of another bullish move over the next few months/years? Or, does the support break on the third attempt and we see the Dollar weaken substantially going forward? Time will tell. Time to wobble.

Brent Crude Oil

We could probably pose the question as above (with DXY) here on Brent. The way we see it is that Brent has been bouncing between the bottom and the mid-point of the range for a few months now. We’d like to see it break above $79 and head for $87. The start look aligned here. We’ll look at a Sasol long as well.

USDZAR

Time to wobble? But its so wobbly already! That’s a volatility joke by the way. This chart is, well, maybe we need new ideas and perspectives here. To us, this looks like a monster bear flag… but it could also go to R19.50. Let us know what you think on Twitter.

Platinum

Platinum might have gone a little far on the downside here and from our perspective it looks like it is going to try put in a little bounce here.

Gold

Gold is looking fairly bullish right now as well. At least, it looks like a decent bullish setup complete with a bearish equity market view to back the risk-off idea. Let’s see if it can get going.

Apple (AAPL)

This trend looks a little long in the tooth. We’ve marked out our trailing stop for AAPL longs. A daily close below $188.92 will stop us out of a position that has done really well. It is worth noting that when it is time to wobble for these giant tech stocks, the rest of the market will surely follow. The majority of the Nasdaq Index and a big chunk of the S&P 500 Index are in just a handful of stocks that are all highly correlated. Once the tech giants begin to wobble a little, the straw house that is the U.S. stock market at the moment is likely to be blow over.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

As a way of example, looking at AMAT, we see that our trailing stop has already been triggered. Now, AMAT is not as exciting as AAPL or TSLA or NVDIA or (insert any A.I. stock in here), but AMAT is a large supplier to many of these companies. Semiconductors have to be made somehow, right? AMAT might be the canary in the coal mine here.

Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFT is also teetering on the edge here. A daily close below $332.81 will trigger the trailing stop loss. As is the case with the illustrated trailing stop losses above, these could act as short entries for the more active traders. Just be warned, you’re betting against the trend, so keep tight stops.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Well, well, well, if it isn’t the good old ALSI heading for the longer-term trendline? At least that’s our view. Buckle up, it’s time to wobble.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

It’s not often that you see such a beautiful break and retest of an established trendline. Textbook short setup here.

Naspers (NPN)

Going nowhere slowly… but, keep it on the watchlist as you can trade it between the levels, and when eventually this range breaks, it will do so in glorious fashion!

Shoprite (SHP)

Retailers have done alright recently. SHP underperformed a little over the last few days of last week though. It also looks to us like it wants to go test R192. It’s time to wobble, hold onto your stops!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL has bounced off this level once before… and then came back and slammed right back into it. With the Brent Crude Oil context above, and with this level actually holding fairly resiliently, we think that it makes a great long trade from here. Easy tight stop and a potentially a huge amount of upside.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

If you have been keeping an eye on energy demand forecasts, weather and other going-ns in the energy space in Europe, you will note that there is a slight shortage of the burny black stuff (coal) brewing. This once again plays into TGA hands. Combine that with a falling wedge, very recent higher lows, and you get what looks like a really good long setup for a medium to longer-term trade.

Anglo American (AGL)

Bullish divergence off a significant horizontal support level. Bodes bullish to us.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

So the trendline broke and the head and shoulders worked out perfectly and the trendline is now being tested. Ok then. Given our thoughts on Gold (and Platinum) above, ANG might be presenting a nice long trade opportunity for those who are willing to take a little risk.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Time to wobble appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Oh, and just a side note, you will notice that we used many weekly charts this week. We did this on purpose, in order to re-take stock of where we are in the medium to longer-term. Sometimes we get very focused on the day-to-day movements and we lose track of where we are. Thus, we look at some weekly charts this week to gain some broader perspective of the trends and patterns playing out in our and other markets.

Bigger picture (offshore markets)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Finally the follow through came (after some good data on Friday). Next level to clear is $430, then it’s clear skies for $461.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

This run is incredible. We think that there is likely much more upside to be had as well, as the A.I. craze is only really getting started in our view. Next target here is $371.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

ACWI breakout also finally printing a new high. Upside target is $102.

Gold

It’s still not looking great for the gold bugs, and we reiterate our call that gold will eventually (maybe in a year or two) retest the bottom of this range at $1650.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Lowest close on VIX since covid. Interesting. We mentioned last week that we might see a ‘return to pre-covid normal’ on the VIX. It might not seem like much, but to have the VIX bottom out around 10 instead of 15 is rather telling of how much less ‘fear’ is influencing the market. Time for some greed to come in and push things to way beyond where they ought to be. It’s buy time!

Brent Crude Oil

Oil remains range bound for now.

USDZAR

Geepers, can we have some reprieve please!? Although our longer-term target is around R21 to the USD, we do think that we will see a bit of a pullback on the back of stronger overall equities next week. Here’s hoping for R18.60.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

It was a wild week, but at least we ended higher. We’re bullish again this week, and although the ALSI chart looks a mess, you will see why when we look at stocks just after this. A general note on this chart though; we’re going to print new highs within the next three months.

Bidvest (BVT)

This flag formation on the daily chart has whipsawed us a few times, but once again it has given a buy signal. Maybe if we say ‘it’s buy time’ enough times this stock will finally catch a bid(vest)?

ABSA Group (ABG)

ABG has been testing and holding the R152 level for a few weeks now. We can see that this level is rather significant. A long trade here with a target at R200 would likely be a good trade. Remember, weekly charts, so it will take a long while to work out.

Anglo American (AGL)

Well it’s not exactly on the level marked in green, but it has been holding R560 like a champion for a good while now. We think it is safe to get long here and look for R760 as a target. Just keep in mind, as is the case with all upside targets, once reached you need to switch over to a trailing stop loss so that you can continue to benefit if the stock keeps trending higher.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

So, we want to say that ANH is a buy at R1025… but, nobody is buying Budweiser and it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon. So, we’ll rather say that around R1025 it looks interesting, but we need to wait for confirmation that it is in fact what it says it is, uuhm, we mean that the level holds, before getting involved. Can’t be too careful these days.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is still looking fairly bullish in our book. The bullish divergence shown last week on the daily chart does not show up on the weekly, but the stock did close the week close to the highs which has us in good spirits.

BHP Group (BHG)

BHG is trading in a nice upward slanting channel. Up through the middle of the channel and we should see the stock testing the top. Our target for now is R640.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

BTI is once again back to the lows. We reiterate our call for R584 as a downside target.

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS printed a (almost) hammer on the R239 support. This creates a pretty clear long opportunity with a great risk-reward. It’s buy time!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is forming a nice base here. We think that it might be a safe time to re-enter the long-term longs here. It’s buy time here for sure.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s buy time! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The S&P 500 (SPY) is the first of the mixed signals for us. We see the makings of a longer-term trend change here. A break of the downtrend, higher highs, higher lows… it all checks out. That said, what we do not see is a third higher high. The market has been somewhat lacklustre over the last week and momentum toward the upside has faded. Currently our view is that unless SPY can clear $420 (or 4200 on the S&P 500 Index), it’s not going to get much higher. Read into those puns what you will, but know that they are based on age old Dow Theory. We think that if the SPY stays below $420, the odds of a short to medium-term pullback is rather high.

Philidelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX has acted as a leader of QQQ for some time. Over the last week or so it has been under a little more pressure than QQQ and has made its way down to the bottom of a rising channel. Now, there are two ways to play this. First, you can buy the bottom of the channel with a target at the top and clear stop if the channel breaks. Second, you could wait for the channel to break to the downside and trade the short trade with the stop set at a break back into the channel. Either one should offer a decent risk-reward, although the payoff on a short trade with a trailing stop will likely be higher. Further, the rising channel setup does bode bearish. So, our bias is to the downside here.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ is a little different to SPY above, in the sense that it has managed to get up above the recent swing high and print a new one. Keeping in mind that it is only the second higher high and not a failure of the third. So, there is a small but not insignificant difference. Longs could stay long here as long as that lateral support holds. If, or when, that support breaks, it will likely make for a good short entry. We think that SOX will lead QQQ and act as early warning for trapped QQQ bulls.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Here is some of the meat and bones of the mixed signals serving. The VIX has been very low for some time now and in fact has pushed a new 52 week low. Each time the VIX has gotten into this region over the last year or so, we’ve called a long. Now, it’s not the world’s most complicated trade to be honest, so it’s not been hard to be right here. Once again, we have a fresh low and a somewhat bearish looking mix of headline equities indices, and thus once again we are calling a long on the VIX. A two-month call with a strike at 24 would pay off really well if things get a little bumpy here. Remember, buy protection when you can, not when you need it.

Gold

Gold has been on tear of late, but has managed to run head first into significant horizontal resistance. $2035 is a strong level that has proven to be a reversal area for Gold over the last two years. Probabilities dictate that Gold remains in the large channel and makes a move toward the bottom end of the range over the next few months. In our last blog post a few weeks ago we’d said that it might be a good time to get out of those gold longs, and we want to reiterate that view. If we see Gold break higher from this channel, then, well, scramble to get those gold stocks back on the book, but until then, maybe it’s a good time stand back and bank some gains.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is one the reasons we have some worries about equities. Recent softness is, at least in our view, based on the broader expectation of a global, mild recession in the second half of the year. The reasoning here is that if there is less economic activity higher unemployment, there will be less demand for energy in general. Add to that the fact that $87.35 is a line in the sand that Oil just can’t seem to cross… it doesn’t make for a very rosy picture for the energy bulls. We think it is most likely that we see Oil bounce between $80 and $87 for the next few weeks. For now, we don’t think it wise to try glean what might happen further out than that.

USDZAR

We still stand by our call that over the short-term the ZAR should move toward R17.58, and possibly R16.88 to the USD. DXY weakness is likely to be the biggest driver here. Yes, in the long-term the ZAR looks toast. We have to admit though, through all the millions of levels of loadshedding and other issues, it has been rather robust. This leads us to believe that the strength here has less to do with ‘us’ and more to do with ‘global macro conditions’ looking rather weak.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

ALSI giving a very simple trent break short setup here. Easy high risk-reward short trade in our view. We can also see the bulls start to unravel as the stochastic slowly rolls over and momentum shifts down.

Anglo American (AGL)

Welp! Proper bear flag breakout on AGL. R500 as a first target seems about right.

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

Looking at a longer-term chart on CML does not give a comforting feeling. Many a moon ago we’d pointed out a small inverse head and shoulders pattern, which failed in a blaze of glory! Now CML is riding a support level that was last truly significant all the way back in 2012. A failure here could lead to some panic selling and a push to R20. Honestly, it would probably be a good buy down there, but some patience is likely needed.

Growthpoint Properties (GRT)

The horse has bolted out the stable already here, but the downside target here is around R11.60.

Investec (INL)

INL is still trading in its range. Our bias is still toward the downside, but we reiterate that patience is needed for this pattern to break and provide a confirmed entry.

City Lodge Hotels (CLH)

CLH is actually looking a little more bullish to us, but we have to be open to the idea that things could potentially get worse. Especially with loadshedding getting worse and the prospect of a global recession in the second half. Thus, we wait patiently for the indicated range to break before taking a decision on which direction to trade this stock in. This one is worth keeping on the watch list.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Bulls start to unravel appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

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Please take some time to vote in our poll below. We’ll give some more details really soon.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The power of simple trendlines… So, now SPY has broken the short-term uptrend, it will likely come back to test the medium-term downtrend. Should we see a bounce off the medium-term downward sloping trendline, well good times are here again. If not though, which is our expectation, we might see SPY make a push for recent (Oct 22) lows. The way we see it, this might be the final flush out before the bear market ends. That said, this final flush out could be really ugly. Let’s see what happens now that the bear is here.

DAX Index (DAX)

We don’t share the DAX chart too often, but it is still a rather significant market to keep an eye on. We note that it is now also testing the short-term uptrend and by all indications could be a great short here to that yellow support line as a first target. Should the yellow support fail (we expect it too), perhaps we see if come down to 13750 (second target). The bear is here, so who knows how much ground the Germans will lose here.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Not too much to add here that we didn’t already say in SPY commentary above. Just another confirmation that the bear is here and is not happy. The downside here is a bit bigger in percentage terms, so likely an easier short trade with a bigger risk-reward.

Hang Send Index (HSI)

HSI has broken its short-term uptrend as well. In fact, it did so some time ago already. Perhaps the Chinese market is currently the best leading indicator we have of what to expect for the rest of the world. Keep an eye on Chinese Manufacturing PMI data due out on Wednesday morning. Trend followers here would expect to see new lows. Not many will want to believe that is possible, but trends don’t really care what we want to believe. The bear is here and it’ll eat your breakfast if you’re not careful.

Gold

The world is a confusing place. You’d expect Gold to be rallying with so much pressure on equities. Although, here we see again that when the bear is here, people sell everything for some liquidity. We saw in 2020 that when the liquidity crunch and ‘crash’ is upon us, everything sells off and only after the initial panic is over does Gold start to rally. Let’s hope that is the case here.

Brent Crude Oil

We speak about oil a lot, so we won’t re-explain what is happening in this chart. Nonetheless, oil is still sort of in no man’s land. We remain bullish.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

The 103.70 level has broken. It’s finding some resistance around 105.30, but one that goes, the sky is the limit! DXY is looking set for plenty of strength, which of course will add fuel to the bearish fire. Interesting times ahead.

USDZAR

Don’t shoot the messenger please. We’ve dusted off our USDZAR weekly chart posted many month ago. Just a gentle reminder that trends are trends and it takes a whole lot of fundamental change to change long-term trends. R21 to the USD? It seemed mad a year ago, it seems almost certain now.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Uhm, well, this is not good. The question is now; how far to the bottom? Obviously there has been some bad news making the rounds and things have actually never really looked much worse for South Africa, so markets coming off hard completely makes sense. But how far and how fast does this bearish move go? We can’t answer that, but we do know that getting out of the way is a good idea.64k as a first target? Probably.

Anglo American (AGL)

Trend breaks don’t get much cleaner than that. Break, test, confirm. The bear is here and has taken its pound of flesh. R600 could be support, but if/when it breaks, R510 is the next stop.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

Another uptrend about to break. CFR looking like it wants to come and test support at R239. Great risk-reward on the short trade as well. Make sure you keep a stop above the recent consolidation high though. A weaker ZAR and some good news from China could keep this stock moving up. It’s a probabilities game, so even though the bear is here and this stock offers a great risk-reward on the short, don’t let wanting to ‘be right’ prevent you from stopping out if you are on the wrong side. That said, we like the short here.

Naspers (NPN)

We might have said that breaks don’t get much better than this for AGL, but NPN might just take that title. We’ve watched this consolidation for a little while and we saw it break, get tested and push for a new low. The bear is here and is coming to touch you on your Naspers. R2785 and R2330 are first and second targets for the short trade here.

Sanlam (SLM)

Initially we’d said that we expect SLM to break higher. We take the opportunity to take that back and change our view. R59 has been solid resistance and a break above it should be bought, but it’s not looking like it is going to break. We therefore adjust our target to R51 with a stop above R59.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

This chart, when originally posted around a month ago, got a lot of flack. People did not like the idea of SSW completely breaking down and printing lows around R32. Again, we ask that you not shoot the messenger. Things are not looking so sexy for SSW. Earnings are out on Tuesday, so let’s see if that changes the tide here. It could, so be ready to react quickly once whatever the news is, breaks.

Subscribe for post updates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The bear is here! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

We’ve not drawn in the lateral support line here, but the SPY chart shows that the recent short-term bullish trends have broken. Momentum wise, it is starting to wane as well as the stochastic oscillator is about to dip below 50. For now, we think that is is very likely to see SPY move toward $385 as it tests the longer-term trend reversal. So, in essence, we are more bearish that our logo for at least a week or two from here.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Looking at QQQ we see much the same as above with SPY, although here we have added in the lateral support line to show it’s significance. There are two ways to play this, the more risky way would be to already be short as the upward sloping trendline has broken, an the more conservative way is to wait for that yellow support line to break before entering the short. The same applies for SPY above.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still trading in the channel we pointed out last week. Until we have a clear break from this channel, we don’t plan to make any changes to our positioning.

Gold

A hit of hopium here for the gold bulls. Friday saw a decent reversal and the stochastic is starting to look like it wants to break higher. Perhaps if we see headline indices (as shown above) break down materially, we will see this gold price bounce and pust for $2000? For now we can’t tell, but keep it on the watchlist. Riskier traders can take a high-probability long trade from here (meaning a great risk-reward setup).

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY needs to hold above 103.70 in order to keep the pressure on emerging market currencies.

USDZAR

Got Dollars? This chart makes us a little sad to be honest. As things are right now, we see now reason for this current trend to change.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Alright, so finally some good news. BTC is looking well on track with its four-year cycle and seems to be making a run for that 126 week moving average. It needs to get and hold above in order to start a new bull run. Remember though, this is a four-year cycle, so being near the beginning of year 3 of the cycle now, the best we can hope for over the next 18 or so months is a move back to the all-time high region. Only near the end of 2024 will it be time to sell again. Those that bought in November last year when we said Buy Bitcoin are up 50% already. Hang on in there guys, we have another year and a bit to go before we can sell again.

Ethereum (ETH)

We don’t have too many comments here, but things are looking a little better for ETH in our view as well.

Moscow Exchange (MOEX)

Weekly chart here on MOEX. Not the most bullish of candles last week, but overall this market is starting to look like it will recover. Worth having some exposure in our view.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

We’ve not shown it here, but hedge funds are starting to load up on the VIX calls. So we will reiterate last weeks call and say again that buying some longer dated VIX calls (3 to 6 months out) is very likely a very good trade now.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Ok ALSI, it’s make or break time buddy. Short-term bullish trends have broken… well, very almost on ALSI. Let’s see how Monday goes.

Naspers (NPN)

Ol’ NPN is still trading in its range. Watch for the breakout of this range. We think it will be lower and we think it will be rather explosive.

Reinet Investments (RNI)

RNI is also in a range. This one looks bullish to us, but we are open to following this trade in whichever direction it decides to go. A bit of a global equities sell off to fuel to ZAR weakness could work out well for ol’ RNI over here.

Shoprite Holdings (SHP)

Our SHP long idea from last week has not worked. Time to get out if you are not out already.

Sanlam Limited (SLM)

Nice little setup here on SLM that give two trade options, depending on which line breaks first. We think it breaks lower.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

It’s not looking good SSW. R32 is calling.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

It’s not looking so good for TGA either to be honest. R180 might be a good level to buy from, but until then, be patient.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Ouch! Is it over though? Who knows at this point? If the wheels fall off the global equities bus, maybe…

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

Short-term bullish trends have broken on AGL too. It’s not looking good.

Discovery (DSY)

Bullish break on DSY. At least some good news in a rough market.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Short-term bullish trends have broken appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

It seems the pullback is happening, and our poop emoji was right. Let’s see if it breaks back below the trendline or if it finds support there.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ is also pulling back decently and as is the case with SPY, it looking overbought and ready to pull back. Again, the downward sloping trendline here is the key potential support level.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

A bit of a reversal candle on Friday, but overall still looking like it is trying to build a base here and stage a bit of a rally. We think a call option here is a good trade.

Gold

Despite the risks in the macro environment, and overall bearish feeling of headline index charts, Gold is not looking to positive. Currently the price action setup looks rather bearish with a potential move down toward $1676, although momentum wise it looks like it might have gone a little far. That said, the stochastic oscillator does sometimes tend to remain at the extremes for extended periods. That might just be the case here. Riskier momentum traders would likely take longs here, although the safe bet is to rather sit this trade out and wait for a clearer setup.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is playing some mind games and not really caring too much for our channel. Overall, we are and have been bullish on Oil for a long time. Nothing it our view has changed enough to make us change that view. That said, charts are charts and we’ve highlighted a small channel in white that is worth keeping an eye on. There are two ways to see this; 1. the downward sloping channel has broken, been retested and will confirm the return of the bull trend once the previous high is breached, and 2. the downtrend is still intact, the downward sloping channel has widened, and the white smaller counter-trend channel will provide a good short entry once it breaks. Which one is right? We suspect the new week will show us. Our bias is for option 1 though.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY has bounced well off the 101 level and has now gotten stuck under 103.50. Once above, it’s clear skies for the Dollar and we’ll likely see the greater equities market come under some pressure. We shudder to think what a DXY move back up to 114 is going to do to the poor ZAR.

USDZAR

Here we go! USDZAR has broken the range and is looking like R18.50 is not going to be a strong enough level to hold it back. Do we get to R20? How bearish is too bearish here? Let us know what you think on twitter. We’ll randomly select someone who replies to hang out with us in our community for 6 weeks

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The trendline draws near. Watch out if/when it breaks!

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

When good charts go bad! Nothing like a nasty, undisclosed tax liability and cutting the dividend to end a potential bottoming pattern. In the long run, it’s probably not the end of the world, but shareholders are clearly not very happy at the moment. As for the inverse head and shoulders pattern here, very technically, it has not stopped out yet. It will need to take out the lows of the right shoulder before it is fully invalidated. Does that mean there is hope yet for the bulls? Time will tell. Stick to your stops.

Naspers (NPN)

Decent trade setup here on NPN. We are bullish this stock and setup, but be open to the range breaking lower. Either direction will give a decent risk-reward trade with a clear stop loss.

Shoprite Holdings (SHP)

SHP looks like a decent long from here, at least back to R250.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

The support zone did not hold and it looks like SSW has opened up for a R32 price target.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

TCP chart still doesn’t look very good. A fresh push lower last week opens the stock up for a R27 price target.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

TGA chart also looking pretty nasty to be honest. Looks like the R180 handle on the table. Where too from there though?

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

Well, another broken upward sloping trend line. Our long trade idea here is now off the table. It looks like we’re going to see at least R650 on AGL in the near term.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post When good charts go bad appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

It’s tough to be a bear

Like we mentioned above, there are a lot of mixed signals in the macro world right now, but this is probably one of the last big bearish signals out there. The chart below shows the spread between BBB rated US corporate bond yields and 90-day US Treasury bill yields. It is interesting to note that the only other time these spreads were this low, was just before or during previous recessions and major bear markets. Does this mean the breakout from the downtrend we’ve seen over the past two weeks was a bull trap? Right now, we simply don’t know, but we certainly have to be open to the possibility that the end of the bear market has not yet come.

S&P 500 (SPY)

So, we’ve had the breakout from the downtrend and on Friday we saw the formation of a bearish candle setup. Our question at this stage is; does the market back test the trend break and establish a new bullish trend, or did we see a fake breakout and the market is going to push for new lows? We don’t really know right now and as we’ve mentioned above, deciphering the current state of the market is rather challenging at the moment. Thus, we have to be open to both possibilities. Should we see the $390 – $400 region hold well as support and a bounce form from those levels, we’d likely have to buy some stocks and back the market as it tries to establish a new bullish trend. Should the support fail, well, then of course we continue to sit and wait for better days. Markets are certainly not the easiest they have ever been, but they sure are interesting.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is certainly not painting a bullish picture here either. Our thinking was that with the ‘return to business as usual’ transformation happening in China, we might see energy demand rise and thus oil prices (and commodity prices) rise. This would have been support for the overall bullish view. This is, however, not the case. Oil has broken the support we highlighted last week and has moved back into the downward sloping channel. It seems a rather safe bet to assume that oil goes on to make a new low from here.

Gold

Gold got hammered! It seems to be squarely stuck in the large range between (approximately) $1920 and $1676… and is heading back to the bottom of the range it seems.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

It might be a good time to consider taking some call options on the VIX. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there and if what we’ve seen over the last few weeks does turn out to be a fake breakout and a bull trap, some VIX calls will do well to soothe the discomfort.

USDZAR

Our ZAR comments from last week still apply, although this week we’ve added upper and lower boundaries to the current range that the USDZAR has been trading. Look for a break above or below this range for a decent trade opportunity. More aggressive traders could trade the range, but we’d rather wait for a directional break to be on the safe side. Just be warned, keep a tight stop if you are going to trade the break… it has given a false signal to the downside once already.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY bounced hard off the support level. It needs a few more days of data to confirm that it is putting in a trend change, so it is definitely worth watching very carefully in the week ahead.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Still not tradeable signal for us, but it is worth watching that steep upward sloping trendline for a potential trade trigger. It’s tough being a bear, but maybe, just maybe being a bear is the right call?

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

And in complete contradiction to our comments above (on the ALSI), we think that taking a long off this trendline on AGL seems like a very nice setup. It has everything you need; a bounce off of support, bullish divergence, a Dow theory uptrend, and of course the ‘China back to business’ narrative. If the bear market is over, the Fed has pivoted and the bull market is back, then commodities will do well and AGL is looking ripe for a long entry.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

We pointed out AMS as a buy last week and so far it seems to be on track. Trailing stop losses usually work best to capture as much of a new potential trend as possible. So be a little patient, but don’t hold on to it if it drops below entry.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

This is the last of the Anglo’s, we promise! ANG is right on a key level though… odds are good that it gets smoked on Monday morning after the hammering Gold took. So, this might be a good short trade to put a trailing stop loss on.

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

Another ‘bull is back in town’ play here on CML. We pointed out a long trade here last week that is off to a good start. The same rules apply though; don’t hang on to it if it dips below entry, but give it time and space to work with trailing stop loss.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

Just purely looking at the chart, SSW looks like a great long from here. Unfortunately, Gold was decimated on Friday and although SSW is far more than just gold these days, we don’t think it will be able to escape the pain. Let’s see how this plays out because the chart is telling us long, but logic is telling us short.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s tough to be a bear appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The downtrend line has been broken and although the market was not as squeezy’ as we thought it would be last week, it was a rather strong week, nonetheless. The real question now is whether or not this is a real trend change, or if this is a fake breakout and a bull trap? This is also a question that we think cannot yet be answered. For now, we think we are in for another strong week, of course, pending the interest rate decision from the Fed. The market is looking forward to getting some guidance from the Fed regarding the path for interest rates. As usual, it seems that the market is again ‘playing chicken’ with the Fed and betting on a pivot in policy. We think the playbook for next will be ‘strong into the Fed, and weak after’.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Much the same applies to QQQ as commented above. It is just interesting to see that QQQ has managed to make a new high, which supports the ‘this is the bottom’ thesis of the bulls. Let’s see how this plays out. Just remember, even in the case that this is indeed the bottom, the market never moves in straight line and we are likely to see a pullback in the second half of next week.

Gold

Gold still trading at the top of a rather large and relatively long-term channel. There are signs that momentum is waning. Let’s see how it reacts to U.S. data this week though. There is the Fed obviously, but there is also monthly non-farm payrolls data which is going to be a big one.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still trying to stage a bullish break of this downward sloping channel and is still trading in a key support/resistance zone. We are open to the possibility that our channel is not correct, but only once prices breaks down from this zone and back into the channel will we be able to redraw this chart.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is hanging onto this support level for dear life. It does look like it is basing out here nicely and from a purely charting perspective, looks set to start moving higher once more. A good time to buy Dollars?

USDZAR

The USDZAR chart is sort of in the middle of nowhere for us. We’ve highlighted the possibility of a much stronger ZAR as that trendline support could act as a magnet in the event that DXY (as shown above) breaks below its support level. If that happens, that would be a trigger to short USDZAR to that trendline below. In the event of DXY bouncing off support, it would be safe to go long USDZAR. In essence, there is no clear setup on the USDZAR itself (at least for us) and we will be taking our lead from DXY.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Go ALSI, go! It looks a little like momentum is running out and a pullback is near. That said, we do not see a clear setup here and thus have no trade on the ALSI until a clear setup presents itself.

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

AGL is still consolidating in this resistance zone. This presents a good risk-reward setup for the patient trader. Wait for the break, in either direction, from this resistance zone and use a trailing stop to maximise the potential of this setup.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

AMS is looking good for a long trade. You could draw a small downward sloping trendline on the last month or so’s candles and use a bullish break of that as confirmation for a long entry. Momentum wise it looks good for a move higher though.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

ANG will naturally take its lead from Gold itself, although we think that once price is back to the trendline as indicated, it will present a high probability trade opportunity. Definitely one to keep on the watchlist.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is still in this range and is still looking like a medium to longer-term buy for us here. Short-term traders can try to trade the range, but we think the real power here is to buy for the longer-term once this range is broken to the upside.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

R642 needs to hold, else R583 opens up as a downside target.

Clicks Group (CLS)

Not all retailers are equal… CLS opens for a move to R239 after the R265 support is decisively broken.

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

CML looks like it has made a nice inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. This presents a decent entry point for medium-to-longer-term traders and investors.

Sasol (SOL)

Very nice and clean break on SOL finally starting to run out of a bit of momentum. SOL will take its lead from Oil next week, so the path forward is not exactly clear. Traders who got long on this trendline break can likely lock in at least some profits here. We still like SOL for the long-term, so we’d be looking to buy if there is any weakness in coming weeks.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

A bit of a riskier play here on SSW, but we like it for a long from within this support zone. You could put up a downward sloping trend line to act as a confirmation before taking the long trade is you want to be a little more risk averse.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

Not all retailers are equal… TFG looks like a proper short after a break and retest of the support zone. New lows coming?

Vodacom (VOD)

That R120 level is still on the radar on VOD. Friday saw the stock bounce off it rather well. Keep it on the watchlist for a potential play.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post To squeeze or not to squeeze appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

Let’s start with some highlights from recent research pieces published over the last week or so.

Inflation

There is a lot more out there about inflation that what we are going to look at today, but the charts that we found most interesting are the ones above. They show that over the last 3 months inflation in the U.S. has basically stopped. This shows that higher interest rates are working as they are intended too. This now needs to push into negative territory (aka. disinflation or deflation). It is starting to look like this will happen very soon, the question is; is deflation a result of a recession? The answer seems obvious (yes) as we are of the view that the U.S. is already in recession. Not everyone agrees with that assessment though and some are calling for much more pain ahead (which of course, would drive deflation in a big way as the economy slows down significantly more from here). There is also the fact that historically, sharp declines in inflation generally lead to recessions. So, is there more pain to come, or are we out of the woods? The last chart shows that Emerging Markets are leading the way in disinflation, which bodes well for us here in South Africa.

China waking up

China has gone from the country nobody could invest in, to the country everyone is scrambling to get invested in. We’ve seen now that China is starting to ease off of the COVID restrictions and that life is starting to return to normal. We are also seeing that steel producers in China are once again building their ore stockpiles. It appears that it is all systems go for China to get back to business as usual. Again, this bodes well for us here in South Africa as Chinese demand for commodities in an already constrained market will likely push commodities prices up the page and we will turn out to be the winners. This has us thinking about energy (oil) as well as things like hospitality, airlines and base metals. We think these are all going to be great sources of ‘value’ in the coming year.

This one is for the bulls

The chart above shows the quantum of money sitting on the side-lines waiting for better days to be invested. Once this market turns in a meaningful way, this is a lot of money that needs to flow into equity markets. The next bull market is going to be massive!

S&P 500 (SPY)

This resistance / trendline has been in place for a full year now and is finally being properly tested. We think the odds are very good that we see SPY break above it in the coming week (on the back of some of the view expressed above). Is it going to be a fake-out, or are we going to see equities markets lead the economic cycle and start to recover around 6 months before the U.S. economy stops contracting and starts growing again? Let us know your thoughts on twitter.

Brent Crude Oil

Fake-out of breakout? We think breakout.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY has been softening significantly for the last few months. Currently 101 seems to be a support level, which is broken opens 99 as the next support level. Overall, this bodes well for Emerging Market currencies. We need to wait for 101 to break though, as it could act as a strong support and potentially reverse the trend we’ve seen over the last few months.

USDZAR

It looked like the ZAR was in for some major weakness late last week, although that reversed on Friday (along with global equity markets turning higher). As it stands now, we no longer think that the downward sloping trendline we have on this chart is accurate and given the DXY context above, we think that it’s rather more likely that we head toward R16.50 in during the remainder of the month.

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

HSI is attempting to break horizontal resistance. We expect that it will in due course and likely be one of the strongest performing indices in the coming months.

Tencent (0700)

Tencent looks pretty much the same as HCI and we think that we might see a resurgence of the old powerhouse stock that drove our local market so well for so many years.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

From a pure chart perspective it looks a little overcooked and due for a pullback. That said, we’re not really comfortable with the short trade here as there are just too many things that we think might push the market higher in the coming week. Truth be told, we’re surprised at how well our market has been doing in comparison to our global peers. The ALSI is trading near all-time highs after all. Once the China bull is fully awake and commodities start to fly once more, there is likely a lot more upside to be had for our humble little market. Our economy might not be in a great place, but certainly our market will be.

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

AGL is currently trading in a resistance zone, but once cleared to the upside, the recently established bullish trend has much room to make new highs. Be patient though and wait for confirmation that the resistance zone is cleared. We would be buyers if there is some weakness. Below R700 would present a great opportunity for us.

Vodacom (VOD)

VOD looks a little dicey in our view. The R120 level has held strong for a long while and is currently presenting a high risk-reward opportunity. We saw VOD break below this support very briefly late last year, only to reverse and run to R130. This time around, if VOD can get and close below R120, we think it will make for a great short.

More ideas inside our community

The HCA trading community is a team environment for traders who are serious about markets. We share ideas and learn from each other. We push each other to work harder and to keep improving by consistently evaluating our own individual and collective performance. We identify what we each are good at and what we are not, and we focus on improving on our key strengths while working to eliminate our weaknesses. Trading financial markets successfully requires a keen focus on process and the support and cooperation of a team. Our team of traders strive to constantly learn and improve their trading by leveraging off each other in a harmonious team environment.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources

The post China waking up appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.