Harmony (HAR) & Anglogold (ANG)

We are looking at taking a relatively medium-term position trade where we long on Harmony Gold (HAR) and short on Anglogold Ashanti (ANG), and essentially, this is not a play on the price of gold or anything of the sort. This is rather a look at the ratio of correlation between Harmony and Anglo, and how that has shifted apart over time. We are taking a trade based on the assumption that the correlation will return to normal. We are taking this trade with equal exposure on both sides since there is a close relationship between these two. At the beginning of the year, these two instruments were very much in line, and now they have drifted apart. Our idea is that these two will come back together again at some point, as they have done in the past.

Raubex (RBX)

Is a construction business that is supported by Sanral-related work, and recently the Australian segment has weighed on earnings. We are looking at a market that is already skittish and has just received some less-than-pleasing news, resulting in the extraordinary move you see in the chart. In the last two weeks, we have seen a consistent downward movement of about near 20% in total. We think this is a little exaggerated, and from other technical points, we see this as a good opportunity for a long trade. We see the possibility for this chart to go back to R52 if not higher, so now would be a good time to enter with a stop loss set at R46.50. Before recent world events, we saw a strong upward momentum, and we believe that with markets stabilising, we will most likely see that trend start once again.

Naspers (NPN)

South Africa has recently been more interested in Chinese technology than its American counterparts, and we have noticed this. We recently bought into KWEB, which is the Chinese Tech ETF, and another way to get exposure to eastern tech is through Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX). Tencent (700) recently came out with an announcement for an AI assistant, which was received well by the market. The performance of Tencent has a direct influence on the performance of Napers and Prosus through the holdings each company has. Naspers is a strong company, and it has been under undue pressure for some time. We have already seen a change of momentum recently, and it is on track to meet the 200 Day moving average. We see this as a low-risk trade. Another thing to consider is that as the Middle East conflict continues, we see more people move away from US-based tech, which is facing uncertainty and moving towards more stable competitors, the biggest being China, so this all bodes well for Naspers.

Watch the episode here:

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We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Trade of The Week – 17 March 2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Today, we looked at 14 charts; below are only some of them, but first, let’s have a look at the overnight moves. Last night was not very quiet, and we have a development in the ongoing situation in the Middle East. The conflict seems to be escalating, and there is a lack of information, as well as cases of misinformation, about what is currently happening in the area. It has been confirmed that merchant vessels are being attacked. Market-wise, we see general weakness all around, besides the oil price.

S&P 500 Index

Yesterday, we saw our level of 6,750 come into play, and we managed to bounce off of it by about 30 points before continuing the downward movement this morning. We had hoped it would hold above 6,750, as that would have meant we could have possibly looked forward to upward movement, but that now seems highly unlikely this morning. The weekly levels remain 6,850 to the upside and 6,630 to the downside, with the lowest support currently being found at 6,580.

Brent Crude Oil

IEA member countries have unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. The aim is to stabilise global energy markets following disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. The US is planning to release 172 million oil barrels from its strategic reserve. At the time of the announcements, there was no real reaction from the market, but in the early hours of this morning, we saw escalations with merchant vessels being attacked, naval mines being placed, and port terminals closed in the Persian Gulf. Our current key levels remain at $120 to the upside, with $90 and $84 to the downside.

Tencent (700)

We spoke about Tencent recently, seeing that it was making a huge move to the upside, and we saw this as a good opportunity to take some profits; we hope you did. Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX) both benefited from this, gaining 7.3% and 8% respectively. Now we are facing some pullback and will have to wait and see if we go back down to our previous lows or if we can manage to stay above the gap. Tencent has earnings coming up next week Wednesday, March 18th, so please keep in mind how this will affect Naspers and Prosus.

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We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 12/03/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Today, we looked at 12 charts; below are only some of them, but first, let’s have a look at the overnight moves. We have news regarding the situation in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump has stated that he believes the conflict will soon come to an end. The Rand is doing a fair bit stronger today. PGMs are up, oil is down, and the markets are feeling more positive.

S&P 500 Index

Well, we had a complete turnaround from yesterday, managing to come up 0.85% and close just above 6,800. Our levels worked out incredibly well: our low support of 6,580 was around the day’s low, and we moved away from it, passing 6,630 and ending the day at 6,801. If we see further movement to the upside, we can then expect resistance around 6,850 and 6,880. If we see movement to the downside, which we have seen a little bit so far, we can then expect more sideways movement with support being at 6,630, 6,580, and 6,500.

Tencent Holdings (700)

Tencent launched Workbuddy, an Al agent for task management, enhancing its WeChat mini-programs. Shares rose 5.0% to HK$541.50, with Citi setting a target price of HK$783.00, and at the time of writing share value has seen further growth. Naspers holds approximately 24% exposure to Tencent with its ~57% stake in Prosus, which owns ~23% of Tencent directly, so Tencent’s performance heavily influences Naspers stock value as well as Prosus. We expect both Naspers (NPN) and Prosus (PRX) to do well today off the back of Tencent’s gains, but we are trading then around swing highs of both stocks and could see some profit taking, so just watch and be aware of the flow today.

Oil

Yesterday was quite a day for oil, as we watched on the Light Crude Oil Futures, we saw the price rise to just under $120 and then fall as low as $81. With all that movement, we have still managed to stay above the $84 level, but if we break that today, we should expect further movement to the downside. If the situation in the Middle East calms down and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, we can then expect a complete flush back down to the low $70 range. The current situation is difficult to gauge direction, as all it takes is another ember to spark more conflict. Politically speaking, it makes sense that the Americans want to end the conflict as soon as possible because this will reflect negatively on their government if the oil price were to remain high.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 10/03/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

During this morning’s call, we looked at 9 charts; below are only some of them. Yesterday’s session was quiet for the most part, with Platinum and Palladium standing out this morning – more on Tencent below in our Naspers section.

S&P500 Index

We are going to sound like a broken record at this point, but last night was more of the same trend. For some time now, we have seen people buying the dips and selling the rips, which is just pushing the chart sideways. We did see our weekly levels come into play with 7,000 being the top resistance level, 6,930 being our low, and then 6,960 being another key level. If our levels are exceeded, the next ones we can then look at would be 7,050 to the upside and 6,860 to the downside. Currently, 7,000 stands as a good entry point to get short.

Naspers (NPN)

Naspers holds approximately 24% of Tencent through its majority stake in Prosus, and as a result, Tencent affects Napsers. The selling on Tencent has been relentless recently, so we are now seeing the stock fall far away from the 200-day average. We could soon see the value dip into R880 and fall further if this trend does not reverse.

Sasol (SOL)

Sasol had a good session previously with the US ADR, SSL, closing up by 6.6%, and looks to be able to go to $7.66 and will then have a lot of room to go reach $8. Locally, R120 is still our big level to break, and if we surpass that, then we can expect to go to R125, with R130 being the next level.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 12/02/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

The post Technical analysis on Naspers, British American Tobacco and more appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Not only has SPY broken the uptrend line that has been in place since the beginning of the year, you might also see a head and shoulders pattern that has been forming since June. Should the neckline of that pattern break, we might see SPY trading all the way down to $418. For now, our bias here remains bearish.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ has a very similar setup when compared to SPY. Again, our bias is towards the short side. As a side note, we noted that even after an incredible earnings beat by NVDA, it didn’t manage to hold onto the highs it printed during the after-hours session when results were released. This confirms our bearish bias and make us think that being long U.S. tech stocks is risky business and we have to be dancing close to the door (aka. be ready to bolt out ball when the pawpaw’s start flying towards the fan).

MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI)

Here is where we get into mixed signal territory. While you could argue that the setup looks somewhat similar to those on SPY and QQQ, we want to point out the reverse bullish divergence on this chart. You will notice that the very same divergence is present on both the SPY and QQQ charts. This serves as a good reminder that even strong opinions must be loosely held. We think that the market should come down and are positioned accordingly, but we could be wrong in our view and might have to react rather quickly should the market not do what we expect.

Platinum

Right then, let’s talk about buying opportunities. We had this little bounce pinned on Platinum a few months back, then we saw the reversal and a retest of the lows followed by another bounce. We like Platinum here, in particular a platinum stock which we will get into in the local trade ideas section a little further down. Once Platinum can close and hold above $990, it’s only up from there we think.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent is still dancing close to the door… uhm, close to the upper resistance level. We’d like to see it break higher, but for now we have to be patient for a clear signal. We still like Sasol for a long trade from support (we’ll show the trade a bit further down), but it very much depends on whether or no Oil makes a move to retest the lower end of the range it’s been stuck in since the beginning of the year.

USDZAR

While we don’t really have a very clear view of the ZAR right now, we do think that should BRICS nations start to settle trade in local currencies, it will be very good for the ZAR. We’ve hear that the BRICS have agreed to go ahead with local currency settlements for trade between BRICS nations, now it’s just a matter of implication. Overall, and this might not be the popular opinion but, we think that is a strong positive for our economy.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

About as clear as mud… All we can comfortably say here is that the 66955 level is big. You could trade for the bounce (using a tight stop), or wait for the break and sell into a potential move to 64000. Right now, for us, there is no setup. It does look like the last week has made a bit of a bear flag, but there is also some reverse bullish divergence. So, flip a coin? Either way, watch that 66955 level. There will be a good risk-reward trade to be had in either direction there. Just remember, dancing close to the door is a very good idea.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is sitting right on the previous resistance level at R186-ish. There is a good risk-reward long trade from this level, but again, dancing close to the door means tight stops.

Naspers (NPN)

Well, NPN neve broke out the top of the range and is now making its move down to the bottom of the range. Maybe a sneaky long trade from sub-R3000 is the best way to play it now?

Remgro (REM)

Is that a bull flag on REM? It might just be. We like the long trade here.

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is once again testing the support level around R230. If we see Oil give back some gains and head to the bottom or its range, we might see SOL break down below that R230 level. Until then, we stay bullish. Keep disciplined though, because below such a long-term and significant support level the move could be big and fast. Keep dancing close to the door.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

When the trend line broke, it was game over. Friday’s close was on the lows as well, so while we cannot tell how much further this move goes down, we imagine that there is still some meat left in it. If you are short here, you could probably add a little and move your stop loss lower down (to around R268-ish).

Capitec (CPI)

It’s not looking good for CPI. It’s hanging onto the downtrend line for dear life. Maybe this is just a thorough retest… but maybe it’s a complete failure to break out. We can also see a small head and shoulders pattern. We think it’s probably best to abandon longs here for now.

Impala Platinum (IMP)

IMP is looking like a gem to us. Well, let’s see how results go (due out on Thursday next week). The market seemed a little disappointed when guidance came out indicating the dividend will not be as big as what most had hoped for. That said, results are due soon and there might be some upside surprise nonetheless. Lots of upside to be had here if earnings and dividends are beyond expectations.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

It’s also almost earnings time for SSW. Like with IMP above, we think the worst might be over here and that the time to buy is upon us. Earnings next week will be our guide.

Join a winning team

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Dancing close to the door appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The double top we looked at last week has failed and the market went on to push higher. It seems now that SPY wants to trade to that $461 level. We are going to be patient in the sense that we are not going to chace the long trades here, nor are we going to continuously attempt to short. We will wait for another clear setup before we trade again.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

The QQQ chart looked a little better to us last week than the SPY chart did. As mentioned last week, it made a double top right on the resistance level. Well, thank goodness for stop losses because on Wednesday the resistance was blasted through and QQQ kept printing highs. We can debate the candle that formed on Friday (shooting star?), but as is the case above, we’re going to sit back and wait for a new setup before making any moves.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX still bumbling along the top end of the channel. We’re still of the view that we will see SOX test the lower end of the range, and with bearish engulfing candle printing on Friday, the short trade is looking mighty tempting here. This might be one that we actually take the short on when U.S. markets open on Monday.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY tagged the $99.50 level. Where to from here? We think we see the bounce to $101.30 before eventually breaking below $99.50 (and trending lower).

Brent Crude Oil

Oil finally made it above the midpoint of the range it has been trading in for some time. Let’s see what it does from here. We would like to see it trade all the way to $87.35, but we’re not sure that it will be able to do that immediately. It does look a little overbought here. Patience is needed here. Technically this is now in the middle of the range, so there is really no setup to be traded here.

Gold

Alrighty, gold broke the short-term downtrend and so far seems to be going for a move back to the highs. On the back of this chart (and move in gold price), we like gold stocks for longs in general here.

Platinum

Platinum has also put in the bounce we were looking for. Let’s see if it has enough legs to get back to the highs.

USDZAR

Ok, so maybe some bears get honey. The bear flag on the USDZAR has worked beautifully. We looked at this chart two weeks ago, then thought we were wrong and last week expressed our confusion. Seems all we needed was some patience as the ZAR went on a rampage last week. From here…? We wait for a new setup. We’ll likely see R17.60 soon, but let’s wait for it to consolidate there and give us some idea of what it wants to do next before we take any new trades.

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South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 index (ALSI)

Oh how wrong we were last week on the ALSI. The super strong Rand lifted most of the market (although in very thin volume), while the pumping gold price pushed the gold stocks. This was the perfect storm for the ALSI longs. Well done to the bulls. We concede and we wait for another setup.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

ANG bouncing off the trendline like a champion! We hope you got a decent long entry here. Keep a trailing stop loss and have some patience. We think we might have a proper winner here.

Capitec (CPI)

Banks have been strong and if the Rand keeps it up, banks will likely stay strong. CPI is headed for some resistance though in the form of a medium-term downtrend line. This makes us go “mmmmmm”…. Let’s see though, if it can break that downtrend it might put in a strong move higher.

FirstRand (FSR)

Sticking to the theme of strong banks for a little bit, we see a bull flag (flat) that has broken on FSR. This triggers a long trade with a good risk-reward.

Naspers (NPN)

Again we’re adding NPN because we think it is an important chart to keep aware of. We’ve spoken about the range for many weeks now. When this eventually breaks, there will be fireworks. Keep watching it and stay patient.

Netcare (NTC)

Maybe a cheeky little long here from the bottom of the range on NTC?

Reinet Investments (RNI)

RNI once again breaking a consolidation to the upside. Decent trend following long trade here we think.

Join a winning team

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Up she goes! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Now, yes, we did say this a few weeks ago and the market has remained persistently strong. Relatively at least… U.S. markets are slightly higher, but locally markets are slightly lower. So, no real fireworks just yet. Perhaps the momentum finally shifts down, and we see the market come off a little? Particularly in the over-hyped tech sector. Let’s look at some charts and get a better idea of why we’re thinking what we’re thinking.

*Also, please just note that as usual, the offshore indices we chart are in fact ETFs of those indices as those are tradeable. If you are not trading offshore for only $2 a trade, click on that open account button. Top right. You got it. Ok, time for charts.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

This is ironically one of the charts that is not so clear to us right now. The levels marked in yellow are our up and downside targets. We think down before up and it should be noted that if $418.31 doesn’t hold, we could see this push to $400. Also, that does look like a double top, does it not?

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ is a lot more clear to us than SPY. Once again we see the double top, but this time it is in fact directly below the resistance level we pointed out a few months ago. It feels like this bullish move has now run its course and it’s time to wobble a little. Our thinking is that we will likely see QQQ come off to test the previous significant horizontal level (also marked in yellow) at $333.57.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX found some resistance at the top of the channel. Momentum is shifting toward the downside, and if you squint just right you might see a little head and shoulders pattern. Look out below! Time to wobble.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Friday came along and said woah! It looks like that support at $101.30 is going to be tested once more. The question we are asking ourselves is ‘are we forming a base here or are we forming a flat?’. In other words, does $101.30 hold and this is the long-drawn-out starting phase of another bullish move over the next few months/years? Or, does the support break on the third attempt and we see the Dollar weaken substantially going forward? Time will tell. Time to wobble.

Brent Crude Oil

We could probably pose the question as above (with DXY) here on Brent. The way we see it is that Brent has been bouncing between the bottom and the mid-point of the range for a few months now. We’d like to see it break above $79 and head for $87. The start look aligned here. We’ll look at a Sasol long as well.

USDZAR

Time to wobble? But its so wobbly already! That’s a volatility joke by the way. This chart is, well, maybe we need new ideas and perspectives here. To us, this looks like a monster bear flag… but it could also go to R19.50. Let us know what you think on Twitter.

Platinum

Platinum might have gone a little far on the downside here and from our perspective it looks like it is going to try put in a little bounce here.

Gold

Gold is looking fairly bullish right now as well. At least, it looks like a decent bullish setup complete with a bearish equity market view to back the risk-off idea. Let’s see if it can get going.

Apple (AAPL)

This trend looks a little long in the tooth. We’ve marked out our trailing stop for AAPL longs. A daily close below $188.92 will stop us out of a position that has done really well. It is worth noting that when it is time to wobble for these giant tech stocks, the rest of the market will surely follow. The majority of the Nasdaq Index and a big chunk of the S&P 500 Index are in just a handful of stocks that are all highly correlated. Once the tech giants begin to wobble a little, the straw house that is the U.S. stock market at the moment is likely to be blow over.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

As a way of example, looking at AMAT, we see that our trailing stop has already been triggered. Now, AMAT is not as exciting as AAPL or TSLA or NVDIA or (insert any A.I. stock in here), but AMAT is a large supplier to many of these companies. Semiconductors have to be made somehow, right? AMAT might be the canary in the coal mine here.

Microsoft (MSFT)

MSFT is also teetering on the edge here. A daily close below $332.81 will trigger the trailing stop loss. As is the case with the illustrated trailing stop losses above, these could act as short entries for the more active traders. Just be warned, you’re betting against the trend, so keep tight stops.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Well, well, well, if it isn’t the good old ALSI heading for the longer-term trendline? At least that’s our view. Buckle up, it’s time to wobble.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

It’s not often that you see such a beautiful break and retest of an established trendline. Textbook short setup here.

Naspers (NPN)

Going nowhere slowly… but, keep it on the watchlist as you can trade it between the levels, and when eventually this range breaks, it will do so in glorious fashion!

Shoprite (SHP)

Retailers have done alright recently. SHP underperformed a little over the last few days of last week though. It also looks to us like it wants to go test R192. It’s time to wobble, hold onto your stops!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL has bounced off this level once before… and then came back and slammed right back into it. With the Brent Crude Oil context above, and with this level actually holding fairly resiliently, we think that it makes a great long trade from here. Easy tight stop and a potentially a huge amount of upside.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

If you have been keeping an eye on energy demand forecasts, weather and other going-ns in the energy space in Europe, you will note that there is a slight shortage of the burny black stuff (coal) brewing. This once again plays into TGA hands. Combine that with a falling wedge, very recent higher lows, and you get what looks like a really good long setup for a medium to longer-term trade.

Anglo American (AGL)

Bullish divergence off a significant horizontal support level. Bodes bullish to us.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

So the trendline broke and the head and shoulders worked out perfectly and the trendline is now being tested. Ok then. Given our thoughts on Gold (and Platinum) above, ANG might be presenting a nice long trade opportunity for those who are willing to take a little risk.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Time to wobble appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

For the last few weeks we’ve harped on about ‘it not needing to make sense, we just follow the market’, but over the last week it seems that the ‘follow through’ is not there. In other words, the market is starting to feel the need to make sense again, which makes us a little bearish. There are still many signs that point to a slowdown/recession in the second half of the year and more and more signs pointing to a looming credit crisis/crunch. Canada put up interest rates unexpectedly, U.S. student loans are once again becoming payable (aka. households have had a reprieve from making payments on student loans and that reprieve is now over, so payments are once again due). Overall, the economic grounds are shakier than what Joburg was a 02:40 on Sunday morning.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

So, the 4300 level ($430 on SPY) put up a good fight and won. Our horizontal resistance level is marked out at $429.50, although we know that these support and resistance levels are more zones than absolute levels. Thus, the attempted break higher that failed on Friday is rather significant in our view. Momentum is looking a little stretched too. In the bigger picture, we have the making of a longer-term trend change here (from bearish to bullish), but in the short-term, we think that the market is very likely to come down and test the 4200 level ($420 on SPY) again. There is a metric ton of economic data due out next week, so it is a bit of a wildcard week, but from where we sit, it doesn’t look like there is going to be much good data coming out. Thus, we expect the market to be softer in the week to come. As always, we would be happy to be wrong in this regard, but the start of the week might prove a good time to bank some profits on local (South African) long trades that have worked out.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

There is not too much to add to QQQ that was not said above. Although, we do feel that we should stress that Tech has had an amazing run on the back of all this A.I. mania. We’d said a few times over the last week that we think the A.I. bubble is only just beginning, and we still believe so, but some of these tech stocks (NVDA for example) have gone a little far and are due for a pullback in our view. We also see waning momentum in QQQ and a failure to make a new high. Brace for some downside we think.

Gold

We won’t reiterate our downside (range) target for gold every week as it is a multi-month, potentially multi-year setup. That said, we have to wonder if we might not see gold pop a little on the back of weaker equities in general..? Overall, we are still bearish here. It would not be crazy to imagine gold coming down while equities are coming down, specially on the back of bad economic data and some fresh panic. Let’s see how the week goes.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

It’s looking more and more like DXY will test the 101 level. The surprise BOC move (hiking interest rates in Canada) contributed to some USD weakness. Bad economic data in the week ahead will likely add fuel to that fire.

Brent Crude Oil

The Saudis have just about thrown every kitchen fitting at the oil price to get it to go higher and still it won’t budge. This makes us worry a little. If that $70.50 level breaks, $60 might be on the cards. Slowing global growth (aka. recession) and persistent inflation will likely keep putting the breaks on oil prices. We can no longer be bullish here under the current circumstances.

USDZAR

We asked for reprieve and we got reprieve, in a big way! Time for that Kansas City Shuffle though. We’re happy to take some speculative longs around R18.60. Keep a tight stop though.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

VIX sub 10 lows would mean that things are ‘back to normal’. While we think that this will likely be the case rather soon, with a doji candle and all the long stories about headwinds we’ve already told above, a test of 16 or 18, or even 20 in the week ahead is likely more probable.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

We’re looking at a weekly chart here on the ALSI. To us it looks like the momentum has started running out and that a move to be bottom of the upwards sloping channel is the most likely move from here. We know that CFR has had a huge impact and that will be no more, so maybe the ALSI comes back down to earth a little.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Well would you look at that? If it isn’t a beautiful head and shoulders pattern with a target at the primary trendline? It’s makes sense though. Gold is looking wabbly, the Rand has gotten a huge amount stronger. The party is over here for how. ANG is probably worth a buy sub-R400, but for now we think that there is around 20% worth of downside to come.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

We’re just updating the BTI chart here and reiterating our R584 target price.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN bounced a little, but momentum ran out pretty quickly. Maybe it’s time for the Kansas City Shuffle here too? We’d take the money off the table from the long trade here and run.

Bidvest (BVT)

BVT finally breaking the flag and putting in a good run. As is the case with APN above though, maybe it’s time to go left while everyone is going right? Take the money and run, in other words.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

Look out below! Well, ok, it’s not that simple. Yes, this chart is looking terrible and yes, there is a ton of selling that needs to be done in order to get index trackers inline with the rebalancing. But, and a big but, CFR is one of the most shorted stocks (in proportion to market capitalization) on the JSE at the moment. Everyone is thinking that this is the easy trade, and look, it probably is, but when it squeezes, which it eventually will, it is going to hurt the overleveraged shorts in ways that they will remember for many years. We do still like the short though.

FirstRand (FSR)

What a move from FSR! ‘Locals’ have done really well, and there are lots of arguments why they are all undervalued and why South Africa is ripe of the picking (aka. buy local stocks over offshore), but again with buts, FSR has slammed head on into the R68 resistance level. We could add a support level at R60 here and it would not be completely unreasonable to think that FSR will come back to test it.

Gold Fields (GFI)

Many years ago I (Petri) worked at a small hedge fund in Cape Town, and there my old boss taught me one of his favourite setups. He called it ‘The Eye of Sauron’. Basically, a failure to make a new high very shortly after a pullback at the top of long upward move. Almost a double top, but weaker. Now, The Eye of Sauron sits atop the GFI daily chart, and it looks down at the primary trendline with malice. And it broods. This is going to be a great short trade actually.

Naspers (NPN)

NPN has been pretty range bound, with the odd fake break out the bottom. We have this feeling that the next break out the bottom will not be fake though. R2785, then R2330. The lower target is less likely, but R2785 we think is rather probable indeed.

Sanlam (SLM)

SLM has also had a great run (see FSR comments) and has also slammed into resistance (at R59). For now, we think this party is over and we will be seeing the R51 support fairly soon. Great risk-reward here too, with a super tight stop and almost R8 on offer. A daily close above R60 takes you out of the short and an intraday high above say R61 does the same. Remember though, there are stop hunters out there who will squeeze you to take your money, so trade small(ish).

Sasol (SOL)

SOL forming a nice little base here and longs from last week worked out rather well. Given the oil and general macro narrative above, we think maybe its time to pack this one in for now. Well, for short-term traders at least. For the longer-term investors, SOL is likely still a good hold.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

SSW is looking for that R31.80 level with a sore heart.

Telkom (TKG)

So… TKG rejected an offer for R46, because it is not enough. Word is that the ‘buyers’ are still sitting around the negotiating table. It smells like TKG pops in here.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Kansas City Shuffle appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Good ‘ol SPY had us second guessing ourselves on Tuesday in a big way. Even more so on Wednesday. But the little bull that could did not give up, and it stomped onwards and upwards and closed on a new high on Friday. Plus, there was some positive news around the debt ceiling this past weekend, so we think that we’re in for one glorious squeeze on Monday. SPY needs to clear $430 to confirm a new bullish trend. So far, so good though.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

If there ever was a little bull that could, QQQ is it! Fresh highs on the back of NVDA and the entire A.I. hype train. We know A.I. is a bubble, just like Cannabis, and Work From Home, and GameStop… but hey, while the ducks are quacking, we may as well join the fun. Just be sure to dance close to the door. That said, an A.I. bubble fuelled rally to make some money off, sure, I’ll take two thanks!

All Country World Index (ACWI)

ACWI is next up for a break out. Easy long trade here with a tight stop and a decent amount of upside.

Gold

Gold making its way lower. We think the bottom of the range, but note that we do also think that it will take many months to get there. For now though, it looks like the gold rush is over.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still trading in this range. Nothing exciting for now, we’re just putting this here so that you keep an eye on it as not to lose focus on the macro picture.

USDZAR

So we share our weekly chart again. We warned some time ago that the weekly picture is not looking good and that 21-ish is on the cards at some point. We did not see the Russian weapons scandal and an interest rate hike as potential catalysts though. Nobody did. Although, we do find it more than a little ironic that somehow there always seems to be a fundamental ‘reason’ that appears almost exactly when the chart needs it too. Wishy-washy stuff aside, we stick to our view of the large upward sloping channel and the upper channel band being the near-term target. Yes, it’s undervalued. No, the market does not care.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Are we just allowed to say that we don’t know? Because we don’t. The market will likely start the week strong… CFR is no longer so important. Anything can happen here. Probably higher.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

SSW is not looking good at all. The support zone has broken and it seems that R31.70 is next up (or, down in this case). We’re letting go of speculative longs (aka. stopping out) and waiting for a new opportunity.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is showing some nice bullish divergence and with the weaker ZAR as a tailwind we think it should do well. Speculative long here with a decent risk-reward. Stop below R165, target price of R190. From there set a trailing stop and let it run.

City Lodge Hotels (CLH)

Thanks for the money CLH! And well done to those who took this trade. R5.00 has been reached. It likely has a bit more to go, so a trailing stop might not be the worst idea.

Naspers (NPN)

NPN is range bound for now, so range trading rules apply. Taking a long around here is a high probability trade, so we endorse it.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

BTI is still floating around mid-channel support. Again, range trading rules apply and we’re biased to the long side.

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The little bull that could appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.