Petri Redelinghuys, founder of Herenya Capital Advisors, provides his analysis of the software sector and the cryptocurrency market.

Software Companies

With the emergence of A.I. technologies and their ever-increasing prevalence, it’s easy to think that the writing is on the wall for software companies. The market seems to think so, as a cursory glance at most software company stocks shows a clear decline across the board, in favour of microchip manufacturers and A.I. developers. But the reality is that the software sector is still an important pillar of the economy, and the demand for their product has not changed.

We can point to Adobe (ADBE) as a clear case of a company’s share price not matching its earnings and profitability. We see this as a valuable opportunity to invest in undervalued stocks, which is likely to see a resurgence as hype fades and we see stabilisation in the supply chains and the global market, which will inevitably lead to individuals and fund managers re-investing in more reliable stocks that flew under the radar.

Trading Approach

It’s important to have a clear goal in regards to one’s time scope when investing. We mainly operate with the mid and long term in mind. As a result, we value stable stocks and investments that are stable. Our strategy centres around investing in reliable stocks and trimming them down for profit as they grow significantly larger than their allocation of the portfolio. It also helps with not becoming overly attached to one area of the economy, and allows a greater degree of flexibility when a new opportunity appears. To that end, exchange-traded funds -or ETFs- are a valuable tool to both beginner and seasoned traders, as, contrary to individual stocks, they deal with entire sectors of the economy.

Cryptocurrency

We also invest in Ethereum (ETH) and other currencies, in short and calculated bursts. Crypto in general is a volatile and more unpredictable market, and Ethereum is no different. Its value also fluctuates in somewhat predictable cycles that reward investors who buy in weakness, not unlike Bitcoin (BTC). With that in mind, we treat it like a calculated risk, as we believe that ETH is nearing the bottom of its weakness, and is likely to have a dramatic bounce as the global market stabilises and sentiments improve.

It’s important to note that our trade in Crypto is a very technical trade that makes up a very small part of our portfolio, the loss of which we could absorb. Our views and speculations in regards to Ethereum are tightly intertwined with our knowledge and research of Bitcoin, and we will attach a file below that will hopefully shed some light on the matter for those who are interested in researching the topic.

Watch the episode here:

Introductory Paper On Bitcoin And Crypto

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Trade of The Week – 14 April 2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

We’ve not drawn in the lateral support line here, but the SPY chart shows that the recent short-term bullish trends have broken. Momentum wise, it is starting to wane as well as the stochastic oscillator is about to dip below 50. For now, we think that is is very likely to see SPY move toward $385 as it tests the longer-term trend reversal. So, in essence, we are more bearish that our logo for at least a week or two from here.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Looking at QQQ we see much the same as above with SPY, although here we have added in the lateral support line to show it’s significance. There are two ways to play this, the more risky way would be to already be short as the upward sloping trendline has broken, an the more conservative way is to wait for that yellow support line to break before entering the short. The same applies for SPY above.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still trading in the channel we pointed out last week. Until we have a clear break from this channel, we don’t plan to make any changes to our positioning.

Gold

A hit of hopium here for the gold bulls. Friday saw a decent reversal and the stochastic is starting to look like it wants to break higher. Perhaps if we see headline indices (as shown above) break down materially, we will see this gold price bounce and pust for $2000? For now we can’t tell, but keep it on the watchlist. Riskier traders can take a high-probability long trade from here (meaning a great risk-reward setup).

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY needs to hold above 103.70 in order to keep the pressure on emerging market currencies.

USDZAR

Got Dollars? This chart makes us a little sad to be honest. As things are right now, we see now reason for this current trend to change.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Alright, so finally some good news. BTC is looking well on track with its four-year cycle and seems to be making a run for that 126 week moving average. It needs to get and hold above in order to start a new bull run. Remember though, this is a four-year cycle, so being near the beginning of year 3 of the cycle now, the best we can hope for over the next 18 or so months is a move back to the all-time high region. Only near the end of 2024 will it be time to sell again. Those that bought in November last year when we said Buy Bitcoin are up 50% already. Hang on in there guys, we have another year and a bit to go before we can sell again.

Ethereum (ETH)

We don’t have too many comments here, but things are looking a little better for ETH in our view as well.

Moscow Exchange (MOEX)

Weekly chart here on MOEX. Not the most bullish of candles last week, but overall this market is starting to look like it will recover. Worth having some exposure in our view.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

We’ve not shown it here, but hedge funds are starting to load up on the VIX calls. So we will reiterate last weeks call and say again that buying some longer dated VIX calls (3 to 6 months out) is very likely a very good trade now.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Ok ALSI, it’s make or break time buddy. Short-term bullish trends have broken… well, very almost on ALSI. Let’s see how Monday goes.

Naspers (NPN)

Ol’ NPN is still trading in its range. Watch for the breakout of this range. We think it will be lower and we think it will be rather explosive.

Reinet Investments (RNI)

RNI is also in a range. This one looks bullish to us, but we are open to following this trade in whichever direction it decides to go. A bit of a global equities sell off to fuel to ZAR weakness could work out well for ol’ RNI over here.

Shoprite Holdings (SHP)

Our SHP long idea from last week has not worked. Time to get out if you are not out already.

Sanlam Limited (SLM)

Nice little setup here on SLM that give two trade options, depending on which line breaks first. We think it breaks lower.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

It’s not looking good SSW. R32 is calling.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

It’s not looking so good for TGA either to be honest. R180 might be a good level to buy from, but until then, be patient.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Ouch! Is it over though? Who knows at this point? If the wheels fall off the global equities bus, maybe…

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

Short-term bullish trends have broken on AGL too. It’s not looking good.

Discovery (DSY)

Bullish break on DSY. At least some good news in a rough market.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Short-term bullish trends have broken appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

First – it is an enormous opportunity to get into the stock market, especially if you are a passive saver making monthly contributions to an index ETF or fund of sorts. If you can, double your monthly contributions to equity investments. It may be difficult to work this into already pressured budgets, but over time you will thank yourself for tightening your belt now and buying more and more as the market dives deeper and deeper.

Second – there is no reward without a little pain. The reality here is that if you increase your investment now, you will feel some pain in the short-term as you watch new contributions shrink each month just for you to add more into a shrinking pot. It is not going to feel good. The truth is that you will not be able to perfectly time the bottom, so cutting monthly contributions until you are convinced that things are better will very likely mean you miss the bottom and miss the chance to get great overall market (index based) exposure at a decent average price. Doing the right thing is never easy, and even more so when you are acting in your own best interest. Bite the bullet, act in your own best interest and take the short-term pain. The reward is years away, but it will be worth it.

If you would like for us to help you with a solid investment plan for the next five to ten years, contact us and we’ll gladly help.

An on that note, let’s move onto some shorter-term trade ideas. As mentioned above, it’s not looking good out there are we are seeing nothing but shorts.

Offshore markets

S&P 500 (SPY)

As usual we start with SPY. We’ve been aiming lower for long while now and nothing has changed. Our target remains indicated on the chart as it has been for many months. The question we are asking ourselves now is whether or not the 3370 index level is going to be the bottom, or just a brief support level?

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Looking at QQQ shows a similarly dire picture (as is the theme of this post in truth). We’ve marked out the previous (pre-covid) high, which as is the case above, should serve as both a target and support level for the current equities rout.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

More of the same for the semiconductors. We guess we’ll see how this, and the indices above, behave when they get to their respective pre-covid highs.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

We’ve pointed out before that the Dollar was last this strong during the dotcom crash, so we thought we would show it again for context. It won’t happen in a straight line, but we think that the 120 level on DXY is rather realistic given the circumstances. Make no mistake, this is putting severe pressure on U.S. corporate earnings as well as commodities, and the real damage will become apparent in the next earnings season.

Gold

Talking about commodities coming under pressure, gold seems to have broken its support level. Although we hold some gold exposure in our long-term portfolios, the short-term picture looks pretty bleak. Our initial thought after this break is that we might see $1480..? The thing is, if we see proper panic in markets in the next week or two, people will sell everything. This means that even the ‘safe haven’ assets will be sold off in the panic and mad rush for liquidity. Perhaps we see a similar washout to $1480(ish) as we saw during the onset of the covid panic days, before gold catches a bid and starts behaving like the ‘safety’ it is supposed to be?

Brent Crude Oil

Is this it? Has oil cracked support and is finally going to give in to the negative pressure of contracting global GDP? Or will OPEC+ cut more production and defend $90 with everything they have? Stay tuned for this week’s instalment of Energy Markets Gone Mad! Jest aside, that is actually a serious set of questions.

USDZAR

Weekly chart here just looking at the trend on USDZAR. It’s not looking good folks. Unless you have Dollars, then it’s looking awesome. Are we going to see R20 to the USD within the next six months? Probably.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Over the longer-term we are still bullish on BTC, but we want to reiterate that we would only be buyers closer to the support level, which is currently around $16.5k. The chart looks fairly bearish, so there might even be a chance to get some BTC below the support level. If the world is going to panic, let it panic. Just keep your own head cool and try not get trampled as the masses rush for the lifeboats. As mentioned earlier, this is a massive opportunity to make some very good long-term returns. Be patient and be decisive. But mostly, be patient.

Ethereum (ETH)

Great insights on ETH merge from Geo here (Geo interview podcast). Do we get a chance to load up around $750?

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

It takes a little time, but charts often work out. Our target remains set at 53k. For those that are short this index, an ATRx2 trailing stop loss would be appropriate from here. You need to give it some room to breathe, but also need to make sure that it doesn’t rip against you and take back all the gains. Let’s see how long it takes to get to 53k and how it behaves once there. For now, enjoy the ride.

Investec (INL)

Well, nothing but shorts were promised, so nothing but shorts we’ll show. Nice rounding top here on INL with a scary low target at R41.20. This will be a slow grinder of a trade if it reaches target, so a volatility based tailing stop (like ATRx2) should too well to manage risk here.

Compagnie Financiere Richmont (CFR)

We’re pre-empting a massive head and shoulders formation here, but we’re pretty sure that we’re not the only ones seeing this… right? Would love to hear your comments, let us know what you think on twitter.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

Well ok then. We looked at BTI some time ago and pointed out this flat top triangle. Our thinking was that in a much weaker ZAR environment BTI could break out nicely toward the upside here. But now the market theme is nothing but shorts and BTI had a proper daily close below the trend line. We are tempted to hit the short here, but think we might have to do this trade in half-size.

MTN (MTN)

R91.42 is a long way down, but we can’t see anything holding the stock up to prevent it from testing those levels. At least not right now.

Naspers (NPN)

The support level shown two weeks ago has broken and it looks like the gap-close trade is on. Stop to entry and let it ride for now.

Remgro (REM)

R125 is a key level to watch on REM. A daily close below R125 will trigger a short trade. Some might see a head and shoulders top here… some might see a rounding top (depends just how much you squint your eyes to make sense of it). Either way, we think that a break of the key support will offer a great opportunity to get into a short trade around a level that confirms a medium-term trend change.

Shoprite (SHP)

Not the greatest of clearest setup here, but SHP could come off and test the R192 level again in what looks like it could be a rather large range. If R192 fails to hold as support, we are looking at a massive double top which would target around R130 if it plays out. Patience here. but keep it on the radar.

Sasol (SOL)

Perhaps a bit late to catch the short now so we will not chase. This chart just serves as a case study to show how effective simple trend line and range breaks can be to identify a changing trend (and trades of course).

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

R31.79 coming up by the looks of it. That would probably be a good level to buy at to be honest, but until them we suppose we wait.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

TCP is another great example of a simple trend line being extremely useful. Now though, we see support around R35. Keep a close eye on that support because a break below that would likely target R26.80 and would make for a great short trade.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

Another stock, another key support level coming up. If TFG breaks below R118 on a daily close basis, odds are very good we’ll see R90.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resource

The post Nothing but shorts appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Not a pretty sight…

In all seriousness though, it has been a difficult year so far and odds are that it is not going to get much easier any time soon. This week we will look at a few ideas, but take them with a pinch of salt because the market is rather wild and unpredictable at the moment.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

We never saw the early week strength we expected last week, but instead had almost one-way traffic lower until Friday. This week we are not willing to make a weekly opening call, but we will say that we still expect that the headline US index trades lower in the coming weeks. Our target currently is the 3400 index level ($340 on the SPY ETF). This level was the all-time high before covid derailed the world in 2020.

MSCI China ETF (MCHI)

We still favour MCHI over SPY at this stage and it seems that we are starting to see a trend reversal here. We saw some good fundamental news coming form the textile manufacturing industry in China over the weekend as well. This strengthens our view that long-term investors should start to allocate capital to eastward facing investments.

Brent Crude Oil

We moved our tertiary trend line just a little lower, although this chart is still ‘make or break’. Recession fears will put some downward pressure on oil, although supply constraints exert force in the other direction. Our base view is that energy in general still has some way to go before it peaks, although a multi-month correction before the trend continues is not outside of possibility. For now we are sitting tight and allowing time and price to lead us.

Gold

Honestly, we can’t really wrap our heads around why gold is not trading higher. We saw a pretty mean hammer formation right on a key support level on Friday… so perhaps this week is the one?

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC is now trading below the previous all-time high and looks set to test the long-term trend line around $15k. Hold onto your hats if you’re already long, and if you’re not, maybe a buy at $15k is not a bad idea.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH will take its lead from BTC, although it is starting to look like the time to buy is approaching. As is the case with BTC above, DO NOT USE LEVERAGE with these crypto’s. You are welcome to start nibbling at them, but it is not yet time to buy big. Much more panic and pain has to come before we can really get involved here.

Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Forgive our cynicism, but war is good business for weapons manufacturers. NOC is making its second attempt at a break out higher. It looks like this time it has legs.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The pressure is on and our view is bearish. We think that there could still be rather a lot of downside in our market over the coming weeks and months (rest of the year) and have a target around 53000.

Sasol (SOL)

This chart will only get worse if oil does not manager to hold its tertiary trend line. We flagged this trend line break a few weeks ago and sincerely hope that you managed to take action in time.

Steinhoff (SNH)

SNH starting to look a little ‘make or break’ here. Remember that the stop loss for this trade is below the long-term trend line.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

TFG is looking like a great short trade once this R118 support level fails.

Shoprite (SHP)

We didn’t draw it, but you can see the Head and Shoulders, right? R191 might put up a fight (and possibly a bounce), but realistically we could see R170 in the coming weeks.

Truworths (TRU)

It’s not looking good for TRU either. High probability setup with a really tight stop on the short trade here.

ABSA Group (ABG)

No doubt there will be those who see the Head and Shoulders on ABG. We think this stock can trade to R136 in the coming weeks. Decent high probability short setup here.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Independence day! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

Alright then, target reached it seems. Where to from here? To me this looks like it could keep heading lower to test the pre-covid highs around 3380 on the index ($338.00 on the ETF). I’ve looked at two charts here, being both the daily and the weekly. The daily shows that the anticipated move to to around this $365 level has now been completed, although when looking at the weekly chart is does seem that there is likely to be more downside. On both the daily and the weekly there are breakaway gaps, which does not bode well for the bulls. That said, expect the market to remain volatile and produce large, fast swings. My bias here is still short, but be careful not to chase and get ripped to pieces on the bounces. 3% up days are not too uncommon in current conditions, so whatever you do, trade smaller than usual.

All Country Wold Index (ACWI)

Looks like the first support level for ACWI comes in around $77.34, but note that it is already back at pre-covid highs, so we will have to see how well this $82 level does at defending. My view is still that we see ACWI trade closer to $72 in due course, but that is still a long way down and perhaps a few weeks away.

Gold

Gold is still feeling a bit directionless right now, although this setup continues to be bullish in my view. If $1800 breaks down though, all bets are off.

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC dropping like its hot! It broke into the buying zone, although I have not acted at yet. Many are trying to catch the bounce now and I am not sure that is a wise course of action just yet. I do think that we see it test the primary trend line, so prices closer to $15k, to me at least, are still on the cards.

Ethereum (ETH)

Cheers previous all-time high. Now for a few standard deviations under the 126 week trend line, and then in a few weeks/months the correction will be over. Nothing for me to do here just yet but wait and see if I can buy some under $500.

South African trade ideas

Sasol (SOL)

If you look at this chart long enough you can actually see me crying. You’ve been a real winner SOL, but you’ve broken your trend line and perhaps its time to start reconsidering my position. Oil had a large fall last week on the back of recession fears, so oil related stocks are going to feel some heat. To be clear, from a long-term investment perspective I see no reason to sell SOL. Even in a crash/recession scenario, I think structurally the energy and oil markets will remain in short supply, thus I remain bullish on energy (coal, oil and uranium). In the short-term though, panic might grip the oil market (like all others) and we could see a brief, violent dump lower (which we could argue has already begun). My thinking here is to get out of the way of this stock in the short-term, but maybe use further downside to buy some more for longer-term holdings.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

The symmetrical triangle broke down… The question now is, does it bounce higher to retest and give another chance at the short, or does it drop like a stone to R180? Keep in mind, despite panic and fears of recession, many, many, many countries need coal to run power plants. Regardless of recessions or not, people need electricity. I think this stock will be volatile, but I think that buying if we see lower prices (and I mean sub-R200) might well be worth it.

Astral Foods (ARL)

ARL is giving a chance to those who did not get short last week. Stop loss above R196, target R140.

Old Mutual (OMU)

I don’t want to alarm anyone, but the R11.50 – R11.40 zone is a key support level and if it fails, we might see sub-R10 fairly soon.

Steinhoff (SNH)

And controversial chart of the week goes to SNH, which shows a strong primary trend line support being tested and a very decent long trade setup. Easy to see stop loss (below R2.40) with a sky-high target. This is a great risk-reward setup. Just remember that this is now technically a penny stock, so trade a bit smaller and expect wilder moves. Mind you… indexes are swinging 3%+ a day and crypto’s are doing 6%+, so you could say, expect what has become sort of normal over the last few weeks. Either way, I like the look of this chart and will be happy to get long in the new week.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Don’t be a hero appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

All Country World Index (ACWI)

We use the ACWI as our benchmark for the Managed Offshore Portfolio, thus we track it rather closely. Some time ago we indicated a potential downside target that frankly, would amount to what most would call a crash. With recent market action and macro drivers in mind, we still think that this downside target is a fairly probable outcome. We note now thought that the ACWI is approaching a key support level. This key support level will set up a high probability trading setup in both directions, although our bias is bearish. Below $84 and it’s look out below!

S&P 500 (SPY)

Well, this chart seems to be working out according to plan. There might be some violent buying (and volatility) here as the market tries to defend a key support level, but we are feeling very confident about our downside target of $370 – $360 being reached. At some point we will be presented with a fantastic buying opportunity, although there is likely much pain to come before bargain hunting can begin.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

By now our sentiments are pretty clear, so there is not too much to add about the QQQ chart. As is the case with the indices (and ETFs) above, most of the volume is still trading to the downside. If the $285 level fails, look out below!

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

We’ve included both a weekly and daily chart of the DXY in order to contextualise the recent move. When last we posted about the DXY it was looking to break out of the small symmetrical triangle formation shown on the daily chart. That move has now taken place and the DXY has now reached what seems to be a rather significant horizontal resistance level. It is interesting to note that the only other times that the DXY has been above this level ($104 – $105) was during the 1980’s recession and the dot comm bubble… interesting times surely do lie ahead.

Gold

We use a weekly chart on gold here, most likely because it is the one that most suits our bias (just a disclaimer). Also because we have had this symmetrical triangle formation setup on the chart for many months now. It would appear that the formation has had a break out and has now completed the retest of that break out. We expect that gold will make a run for a price target in excess of $2100 in the coming months.

Brent Crude Oil

As you are probably sick of hearing now, we’ve been very bullish oil and energy for some time. Nothing has changed. Aggressive traders could probably use $121 as a stop loss and $130 as a target for new longs entered into under $123.

Bitcoin (BTC)

It’s not looking good hodlers… the break of the 126 week moving average has historically been met with some violent downside in the short-term. We mark the zone between the previous all-time high ($20k), and the primary trend line (+-$15k) as a target zone for the current bearish market action. Hodlers… look out below!

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH is presenting a very similar as BTC (no surprises there), with the key difference being that ETH is already testing the previous all-tine high level as support. A failure here would likely see price drop as low as $800.

USDZAR

Well, ok then. The events of last week has sent USDZAR straight up. R16.40 seems to be the most logical target at this stage. Let’s see how this week goes.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The retest of the channel has led to a sharp move lower. Now the ALSI is sitting just below what looks like a last ditch flag support. We think this level has broken and downside is definitely coming. Look out below!

Naspers (NPN)

We flagged NPN as a short last week and then very promptly changed our mind (in this tweet) on Monday after some news from China. It does seem that much of that explosively positive sentiment faded in the last two days of last week. That said, NPN does have earnings coming up and shareholders are keenly focused on managements plans to ‘unlock value’. We are now cautiously long of this stock with an eye on results later this month and how management communicates their plans to unlock value for shareholders (as the Tencent discount is pretty massive).

Jubilee Metals Group (JBL)

JBL is one of those stocks that we love to own, but has been going sideways and lower for about a year now. We’re keeping an eye on the R2.70 level and would add to long-term portfolios there, although below R2.70 and (at least in the short-term) we could see some pain. Fundamentally though, we still really like this stock over the long-term, so a sudden low volume selloff would be welcomed as we would use it as an opportunity to add to our position.

Sasol (SOL)

The trend is your friend! It’s worth trying to pick some up on a retest of the trend line, although be careful of that trend line breaking as that would likely be used as a trailing stop for most traders (and other participants) who have been long for some time now.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

ANH was recently flagged as one of the most undervalued stocks globally by a large investment bank. We’re not so sure about that, but we do note that is is trading on/near key support. For the braver traders out there willing to take longs in the current environment, ANH offers a great risk-reward trade to the top of the range.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

The trend is once again your friend! Unless you’re long APN, then you’re in trouble. The range we showed last week has broken and APN is grinding lower as expected. Trailing stops from here for those who are short.

Astral Foods (ARL)

The ARL reversal seems to be underway and it looks like the bottom of the range is calling! Look out below!

Life Healthcare (LHC)

Another long for the brave souls. LHC seems to be offering a great risk-reward trade off the R18 historic support. Just make sure to keep a tight stop loss.

Mondi PLC (MNP)

MNP has broken the flag (and wedge) formation we showed last week and seems to be headed lower. A trailing stop loss would probably be the best way to manage this trade.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

As we said last week, TCP is long-standing one of our favourite stocks, but these (hips) charts don’t lie and TCP is starting to feel the (bearish) vibe. In truth, given the economic conditions currently present and the difficulties on the horizon, TCP might experience a bit of a slowdown in revenues. Not because they don’t have a great business, but rather because the environment in which that great business operates is likely to become more strained. From a trade perspective, last week was the time to get short for this break and retest, so it might not be worth chasing now. Perhaps if the R38 support fails there will be another chance to enter into a high probability trade. Patience.

Herenya Managed Portfolios

We’ve not made too much noise about this (yet), but Herenya now has three portfolios that clients can invest in. Our performance has been rather good (if we must say so ourselves). In time we will build a dedicated page on our website for our managed portfolios, although for now we would just like to make our latest fact sheets available for download. Below are some details about our managed portfolios, as well as the latest fact sheets for each. Please contact us if you would like to invest in one or more of our portfolios.

Herenya Offshore Long-Term Equity Portfolio

Herenya South Africa Long-Term Equity Portfolio

Herenya Active Trading Portfolio

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Look out below! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

We’re not saying that the melt up is over. Hell, it could go for another year or so. Just in the very short-term it seems like the rally might have run out of steam on Friday and is due a pull-back. Let’s look at some charts and you’ll see why.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

The VIX has held the base around 15, but put in a decent up-day on Friday. This might have been some of the smart money buying cheap protection in the face of stretched equities. A spike up to the low 20’s here would not be too surprising.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX has had a great break out from the flat top triangle. Friday’s action resulted in a spinning top candle formation though. A gap lower at the open on Monday with red action all day will likely create a shooting star candle formation. Not the end of the world, but maybe enough for it to go test the break out level again. Keep in mind that a large part of this index is NVDA, which was driven higher by high options volumes last week. Fade the calls…

S&P 500 (SPY)

Bit of a doji on the daily candle there on Friday. Interesting to see that it formed just under what was a historic upward sloping support (trend) line. Again, we’re not calling for the end of the world here, just a bit of a breather.

Dow Jones Transportation Index (DTX)

Well, thank you Avis for trying harder and doubling in a day so that DTX could fly! Note that the trend here is firmly up, but again, a small pull-back would make sense.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

We’ve been tracking ol Russell (the love muscle) for a while now. Finally the break-out came. Hopefully this is the start of a 12 month long grind higher. But first, fade the calls and let IWM retest the break out level.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

We’re really picking tops this week it seems. Again though, not the greatest action at the close of the week. One last pull-back before the Santa Rally arrives?

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY finding a bit of resistance around 94.50 (and support at 93.50-ish). Our view is that DXY should continue to climb over the next 12 months, although it will have to break this range (marked in white) first.

Brent Crude Oil

Weekly chart on Brent here. It looks rather likely that we see it pulling back to test the trend line marked in white. There was some news over the weekend that OPEC will be increasing prices to their biggest customers… so oil is a bit of a wild card now. We could see it gap up rather a lot when futures open. The words ‘energy crisis’ are ones you will probably see a whole lot before our summer is over. We maintain our bullish view on oil and energy and think that weakness continues to be a good opportunity to add (buy).

Gold

Nothing to do just yet, but keep watching this weekly chart. Remember, the best trades take a long time to set up. Patience young Padawan.

USDZAR

USDZAR overshot the resistance initially, but now looks set to make a push to the bottom of the channel. We would guess that an encouraging election result might ignite some interest in SA assets and lead to some inflows into our market. In a strong ZAR environment, local retailers and banks come to mind.

Cryptocurrencies

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH is doing better than BTC at this stage. Call it the leader if you will. It’s made new highs and is grinding ever-so-slowly higher. There is nothing about this chart not to like. Sitting long for another month seems like the right trade.

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC is trying, but hasn’t quite yet broken free from its resistance. Maybe some of those TSLA call profits will make its way to the crypto space in the coming weeks? A large portion of the market seems focused on the shi… altcoins and NFT space at the moment though. Once the apes realise that most altcoins are merely pump and dump schemes, they will find their way back to big daddy Bitcoin.

South African trade ideas

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

Well… not many words are needed here. This chart looks like a dumpster fire.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

ANG needs to be watched in conjunction with Gold (above). If Gold can break out of that large triangle and ANG can hold above the 200 day moving average, we could be setting up for a decent strategic long here. Keep in mind that miners often lead the actual metal. This is worth keeping on the radar.

Brait SE (BAT)

If you’re not following @tradinglikeafox, you should be. He did a good thread on ‘at home exercise’ companies earnings that were disappointing. The ‘lockdown’ trades are out of steam and people are returning to the outside world. This bodes well for BAT as its gym business is going to do well. Looking at the chart though, it broke that range nicely and had a multi-week pull-back. Now it’s made a decent bullish push again and momentum is turning proper bullish again. New (recent) highs are on the way.

BHP Billiton (BHP)

Another dumpster fire looking chart. This is not as clear as AGL though as BHP has some oil exposure. Nonetheless, the chart is pointing down.

Naspers (NPN)

NPN is not looking good at all. We’d thought that this stock could break higher, but it is starting to look like we got it wrong. Careful with the longs here.

Sasol (SOL)

Following on from our comments on oil (above), SOL could be very much in play in the week ahead. Nice chart setup too.

New educational content

We uploaded the JSE Power Hour presentation Petri did earlier this year, although the link in the mailer that went out did not work. So for those who are keen to watch the video and download the slides, please have a look at our Presentations page. You will actually find most of the Presentations that Petri has done over the last fews years, including the slides. It’s a good place to start learning if you are new.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Fading the calls appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Sentiment

Below is the Goldman Sachs ‘Sentiment Indicator’ which measures stock positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors versus the past 12 months. Readings below -1.0 or above +1.0 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns. As we can see, this indicator is currently only very slightly bullish.

Next up is the Bank of America ‘Bull & Bear’ indicator. Once again, it’s in the middle of nowhere. We interpret this as a signal that the market is currently able to sustain more upside without greed becoming too extreme.

Buybacks

The buybacks mentioned earlier is put into perspective by this chart from Goldman Sachs. Just over $1trillion consistently on the bid… More upside coming?

Tapering

It is also worth noting that even with the market mostly expecting tapering to start in November, and interest rate hikes to start mid-next year, the market is not responded negatively. Goldman Sach says “We are pulling forward our forecast for the Fed’s first rate hike by one full year to July 2022, shortly after tapering is scheduled to conclude. We expect a second hike in November 2022 and two hikes per year after that”. Even so, the market remains strong.

Now let’s go through our (mostly) usual charts and see what is out there.

Offshore trade ideas

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX is a bit of a leading indicator to the greater tech stock indices in our view. Although there is not setup to trade here right now, this large flat top triangle has been in the making for a few months. A bullish break here would likely lead the broader market higher.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Our bearish divergence shown last week was the wrong call. QQQ printed fresh all-time highs and seems to be set on grinding higher. Some tech excitement thanks to Meta might also be a driver here.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (IYY)

IYY is also looking fairly strong. Last week was mostly spent consolidating around new all-time highs and the week ended with the highest ever record close. In the very short term (5 days), this consolidation probably breaks higher.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

This IWM chart is one that our regular readers are probably very familiar with by now. Still not trade here, but still on the radar. This consolidation, at least in our view, will dictate the fate of the wider equity market in the 12 months ahead.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

We’ve included both the daily and weekly chart of DXY here. On the daily we note that our short-term target from our ‘Headed for news highs‘ post was tested. From there DXY bounced hard. Our base expectation here is that DXY will likely rise, or the U.S. Dollar will strengthen, in months to come. Much of this we think will be driven by two forces. 1. Funds flowing into the U.S. Treasuries market as investors will start to seek protection against inflation, and 2. The energy crisis is not nearly as severe in the U.S. as it is in Europe and China, which should give the U.S. economy an advantage during the winter months.

China Coal Futures (CCEX2021)

Longer-term view of Coal Futures in China. It’s been rather volatile (to say the least), but in our view the party is not over. Lots of Chinese coal production was impacted by flooding (about 50 mines) and we are likely in for a cold northern hemisphere winter. We think that (although extremely volatile) weakness here can be bought as coal will likely stay hot (excuse the pun).

Gold

We don’t want to go too much into the commodity commentary here, perhaps a post for another time. But this weekly chart of Gold shows a large symmetrical triangle in the making. Keep it on your watchlist.

Xtrackers Physical Rhodium ETC Fund (XRHO)

We showed the XRHO chart before and show it to you once again. This is a weekly chart, so the timeframes here are slightly longer-term. This chart is working its way into our hearts and might be one of our favourite setups in the market at the moment. You can put on a fairly tight stop and potentially get a decent ride back to the highs.

USDZAR

Daily and weekly charts on USDZAR. On the daily, we have reached the top of the recent range between 15.30 and 14.15. The weekly chart shows us that it is sort of back in the range it was trading before this whole pandemic thing took the world by storm. Perhaps it is reasonable to assume that (unless South Africa shoots itself in the foot) the USDZAR should stay in this range for a few more months?

Bitcoin & Ethereum (BTC & ETH)

We’ve grouped these together this week because they both look rather good. ETH admittely looks a little better that BTC, but we are on track for a new high on both we think. We noticed that some of the larger investment banks started updating targets on these two as well, with Goldman Sachs saying they see ETH going to $8k. Regular readers will know our targets and expectations for year end. Newer readers should have a look at the 2021 roadmap for Bitcoin, Which cryptocurrency to buy in 2021, Stimulus, Gold and Bitcoin and It’s time to buy Bitcoin posts for context. They are older posts, but our views have not really changed.

South African trade ideas

As we mentioned earlier, there is not really much in the local market that looks attractive to us now. So we only have three ideas to share with you this week. Surely there will be some setups to come in future, but for now, perhaps this is a good time to practice discipline.

Woolworths (WHL)

WHL could be a good buy off the 200 day moving average here. Risk on sentiment and strong buying in the U.S. could raise all ships, and local retailers have been underwater for a few months now. Also, Christmas is coming and retailers tend to like them some of that Santa Rally.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

TFG has been consolidating around the 200 day moving average for a while now. It offers a decent, high risk-reward long trade from here. Keep a tight stop though.

Vodacom (VOD)

Maybe this 6 week plus selloff in VOD is a little overdone now? Back in June and July, the zone between the 89 and 200 day moving averages proved to be a good buying zone. Let’s see if the general market agrees this time.

New educational content

We uploaded the JSE Power Hour presentation Petri did earlier this year, although the link in the mailer that went out did not work. So for those who are keen to watch the video and download the slides, please have a look at our Presentations page. You will actually find most of the Presentations that Petri has done over the last fews years, including the slides. It’s a good place to start learning if you are new.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Bigger picture appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

Dow Jones Transportation Index (DTX)

A nice clean break here on the DTX. This was the overall buy signal for U.S. equities. From here, it looks like we are headed for new highs.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The early warning served the market well. As is the case with most U.S. equity indices right now, it looks like we are firmly headed for new highs in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Talking about headed for new highs… BTC is looking stronger than that awkward feeling of discomfort and weirdness when you’re stuck in traffic behind some guys sitting on the back of a bakkie.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH is also looking very strong. Our thesis of a parabolic move in the last quarter of this year still has hope.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Back to reality a bit and it looks like the DXY has gotten stuck in a small range. It is a bit hard to read now, but it does seem logical that the DXY should come and test the $93.50 to $93.00 level before continuing to trend higher. There might be a few choppy weeks ahead with short-term USD weakness as it tests the break out. Overall though, we think that this is the start of a new “stronger dollar” trend and that a retest of $93.00 could be a decent chance to move some ZARs offshore.

USDZAR

Our stronger ZAR call two weeks ago had a choppy start, but worked out in the end (8 cents to go). Given our thinking above, we imagine that the USDZAR trades down to around R14.15 to retest what is a fairly significant level.

Brent Crude Oil

It’s so close you can taste it! Starting to wonder it the time for a pullback is not starting to get close now. For now though, sit patiently and start pondering where and how a trailing stop loss can best protect gains made here.

American Tower (AMT)

We highlighted AMT as a potential buy two weeks ago and once again bring it to your attention. Above $270, and this stock is headed for new highs.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Once again we are just posting the ALSI chart to say that we don’t really have a clear setup on this market and thus will be staying out of the way.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN overshot out initial long target by a country mile. Since then it has pulled back into the original target zone. Interestingly this seems to now be a zone in which some accumulation is taking place. It could make an interesting long with a clear stop loss from here. Worth keeping an eye on.

Clicks Group (CLS)

The retailers in general are definitely worth keeping an eye on over the next week. If the ZAR eats its jungle oats, retailers could fly. So far CLS has the most clear setup to watch. It’s a little less liquid and thus a little more wild, so trade with caution.

Woolworths (WHL)

There is no actual buy signal on WHL just yet, but retailers could be the play for next week, so it is definitely worth having WHL on your radar.

Capitec (CPI)

Patience will be rewarded. The seller stopped the breakout in its tracks at R1906, although this has created a good long setup. There is big divergence and a solid trend in place. CPI could be headed for new highs.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

SSW has had a great run from the R45.00 – R46.00 level. It has now put in two fairly bearish looking daily candles, right in and below a previous support zone. Maybe it’s time for the shorter-term traders to bank some profits here?

Jubilee Metals Group (JBL)

JBL is exactly the opposite of SSW, which rings an alarm bell somewhere in the back of this analysts head… Nonetheless, this is a clear break in a strong up trend. So this too looks like it is headed for new highs.

Mondi (MNP)

We havent pulled the trigger on the long trade here yet, but MNP is looking juicier and juicier.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Headed for new highs appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

We’ve seen the large rising wedge formation give a bearish break. Now price has moved below the 89 day moving average, which is a key medium-term trend indicator in our book. It is interesting to see that on Friday the market tested the 89 day moving average from the bottom, but failed to break above it. This rejection of a key trend indicator opens the 200 day moving average as a potential downside target.

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX)

DTX has lost the 200 day moving average support. This is a longer-term trend indicator in our book and it being broken is worrying for the bulls. The immediate downtrend line (white) could act as a potential buy signal, but until that happens, the trend is down.

Brent Crude Oil

Maybe our bias is too strong, or maybe the chart is just bullish… either way, Oil is looking good for a push higher.

Xtrackers Physical Rhodium ETC Fund (XRHO)

It’s getting close now. A break above the white trend line here would make a good buying opportunity in our view. Should XHRO break higher, it could be a catalyst for local PGM stocks to get moving as well.

Platinum Futures (PL1!)

Platinum might also be on the verge of finally breaking its recent down trend.

USDZAR

Very short-term view here, but the breaking of the yellow trend line could see the USDZAR strengthen to about R14.50.

Bitcoin (BTC)

The usual weekly logarithmic chart for crypto’s. Fairly bullish looking setup. Perhaps it’s finally time for the fourth quarter pump?

Ethereum (ETH)

Two nice looking candles for the bulls on ETH.

American Tower (AMT)

AMT has had a sharp selloff in recent weeks. The last time we saw such a fast and furious selloff it turned out to be a great buying opportunity. Early signs of shifting momentum supports the long trade idea here.

Peabody Energy (BTU)

I don’t know if you guys have seen coal prices in China… or that coal power plants around the world are shutting down due to a shortage of coal…? BTU mines coal. A whole lot of coal. Very decent long setup here as well. Me..? I like the stock.

VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH)

It looks like the trend line break is playing out. You could probably see an inverse head and shoulders formation there as well if you squint hard enough. We’re looking for $240 as a target price.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 (ALSI)

Looks like the ALSI bounced to retest the 57700 level and is set up to trade lower once more. Downside target is 53000.

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS looks rather interesting. A reversal around R265 could provide a very high risk-reward long opportunity.

Impala Platinum (IMP)

Momentum wise it looks like IMP might be setting up for a bounce. If we see the two PGMs mentioned in the offshore trade ideas section above break higher, IMP could be a really good long from around these levels.

Mediclinic International (MEI)

MEI back to the bottom of the range?

Sanlam (SLM)

Looks like SLM is going to try break out of this range again. You can use a three day low as your trailing stop loss if you take this long trade.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

Very high risk-reward setup on SSW here. Once again dependent on PGMs in general, although the risk-reward is so great here it might just be worth taking a stab.

We’re talking to Ghosts!

We will be having a series of chats with The Finance Ghost and Mohammad Nalla during the month of September. Our goal is to educate the listeners and to let people out there know about what we do, and how we do it.

Jonathan talks about Day Trading, what it takes and what his journey was. This was a very insightful chat and is highly recommended for anyone who is actively trading, or thinking about becoming very actively involved in markets.

Want ideas, insights and research?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Purely a technical perspective appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.