In yesterday’s earnings, Clicks (CLS) announced a respectable revenue growth of 7.4%. While it came short of expectations, the other metrics, such as the newly opened 1000th store and over 800,000 new ClubCard members, Clicks should appear like a very successful business. But the comapny share price is a sharp contrast to that image, with an 8.1% drop in a single day, which begs two questions: why did it happen? And what does it mean for the rest of the market?

Clicks shares dropped by 8.1% in one day, reaching the lowest point in more than a year

Understanding The Drop

There are a few reasons why Clicks shares are doing so poorly in the market. Some of the lesser reasons are rising operating costs, aggressive discounts from competitors, as well as a period of poor management in December, where the company missed out on over a hundred million Rand in revenue, as changes in the warehouse management system led to empty shelves on the stores.

But the most important reason is the current and future economic situation of the average consumer. In the short term, the war in the Middle East has disrupted global supply chains and led to inflation and a massive increase in the cost of living, while in the long term, consumers have to deal with the lingering effects of inflationary pressures. This hurts Clicks’ long term prospects, as something of a luxury brand, as its customer-base will have less disposable income to spend on non-essentials, and subsequently, the forward-looking market avoids the company, despite its current revenue growth.

The Future

We can look to the war in Ukraine as an example of how this conflict’s effect on the global market can play out. In both cases, the war led to a large scale fuel and energy shortage, which put a great deal of pressure on the consumers, but over time, the supply chains were redrawn and adapted to the market’s new reality. This will relieve some of the pressure, as things like fuel prices go down again, but certain effects, like raised food prices, are difficult, if not impossible, to recover from. This makes luxury goods and companies a less attractive investment as they are the first thing most people cut out if the budget runs tight.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Clicks, The Canary In The Coalmine appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Oh, and just a side note, you will notice that we used many weekly charts this week. We did this on purpose, in order to re-take stock of where we are in the medium to longer-term. Sometimes we get very focused on the day-to-day movements and we lose track of where we are. Thus, we look at some weekly charts this week to gain some broader perspective of the trends and patterns playing out in our and other markets.

Bigger picture (offshore markets)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Finally the follow through came (after some good data on Friday). Next level to clear is $430, then it’s clear skies for $461.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

This run is incredible. We think that there is likely much more upside to be had as well, as the A.I. craze is only really getting started in our view. Next target here is $371.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

ACWI breakout also finally printing a new high. Upside target is $102.

Gold

It’s still not looking great for the gold bugs, and we reiterate our call that gold will eventually (maybe in a year or two) retest the bottom of this range at $1650.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Lowest close on VIX since covid. Interesting. We mentioned last week that we might see a ‘return to pre-covid normal’ on the VIX. It might not seem like much, but to have the VIX bottom out around 10 instead of 15 is rather telling of how much less ‘fear’ is influencing the market. Time for some greed to come in and push things to way beyond where they ought to be. It’s buy time!

Brent Crude Oil

Oil remains range bound for now.

USDZAR

Geepers, can we have some reprieve please!? Although our longer-term target is around R21 to the USD, we do think that we will see a bit of a pullback on the back of stronger overall equities next week. Here’s hoping for R18.60.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

It was a wild week, but at least we ended higher. We’re bullish again this week, and although the ALSI chart looks a mess, you will see why when we look at stocks just after this. A general note on this chart though; we’re going to print new highs within the next three months.

Bidvest (BVT)

This flag formation on the daily chart has whipsawed us a few times, but once again it has given a buy signal. Maybe if we say ‘it’s buy time’ enough times this stock will finally catch a bid(vest)?

ABSA Group (ABG)

ABG has been testing and holding the R152 level for a few weeks now. We can see that this level is rather significant. A long trade here with a target at R200 would likely be a good trade. Remember, weekly charts, so it will take a long while to work out.

Anglo American (AGL)

Well it’s not exactly on the level marked in green, but it has been holding R560 like a champion for a good while now. We think it is safe to get long here and look for R760 as a target. Just keep in mind, as is the case with all upside targets, once reached you need to switch over to a trailing stop loss so that you can continue to benefit if the stock keeps trending higher.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

So, we want to say that ANH is a buy at R1025… but, nobody is buying Budweiser and it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon. So, we’ll rather say that around R1025 it looks interesting, but we need to wait for confirmation that it is in fact what it says it is, uuhm, we mean that the level holds, before getting involved. Can’t be too careful these days.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is still looking fairly bullish in our book. The bullish divergence shown last week on the daily chart does not show up on the weekly, but the stock did close the week close to the highs which has us in good spirits.

BHP Group (BHG)

BHG is trading in a nice upward slanting channel. Up through the middle of the channel and we should see the stock testing the top. Our target for now is R640.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

BTI is once again back to the lows. We reiterate our call for R584 as a downside target.

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS printed a (almost) hammer on the R239 support. This creates a pretty clear long opportunity with a great risk-reward. It’s buy time!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is forming a nice base here. We think that it might be a safe time to re-enter the long-term longs here. It’s buy time here for sure.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s buy time! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The downtrend line has been broken and although the market was not as squeezy’ as we thought it would be last week, it was a rather strong week, nonetheless. The real question now is whether or not this is a real trend change, or if this is a fake breakout and a bull trap? This is also a question that we think cannot yet be answered. For now, we think we are in for another strong week, of course, pending the interest rate decision from the Fed. The market is looking forward to getting some guidance from the Fed regarding the path for interest rates. As usual, it seems that the market is again ‘playing chicken’ with the Fed and betting on a pivot in policy. We think the playbook for next will be ‘strong into the Fed, and weak after’.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Much the same applies to QQQ as commented above. It is just interesting to see that QQQ has managed to make a new high, which supports the ‘this is the bottom’ thesis of the bulls. Let’s see how this plays out. Just remember, even in the case that this is indeed the bottom, the market never moves in straight line and we are likely to see a pullback in the second half of next week.

Gold

Gold still trading at the top of a rather large and relatively long-term channel. There are signs that momentum is waning. Let’s see how it reacts to U.S. data this week though. There is the Fed obviously, but there is also monthly non-farm payrolls data which is going to be a big one.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still trying to stage a bullish break of this downward sloping channel and is still trading in a key support/resistance zone. We are open to the possibility that our channel is not correct, but only once prices breaks down from this zone and back into the channel will we be able to redraw this chart.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is hanging onto this support level for dear life. It does look like it is basing out here nicely and from a purely charting perspective, looks set to start moving higher once more. A good time to buy Dollars?

USDZAR

The USDZAR chart is sort of in the middle of nowhere for us. We’ve highlighted the possibility of a much stronger ZAR as that trendline support could act as a magnet in the event that DXY (as shown above) breaks below its support level. If that happens, that would be a trigger to short USDZAR to that trendline below. In the event of DXY bouncing off support, it would be safe to go long USDZAR. In essence, there is no clear setup on the USDZAR itself (at least for us) and we will be taking our lead from DXY.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Go ALSI, go! It looks a little like momentum is running out and a pullback is near. That said, we do not see a clear setup here and thus have no trade on the ALSI until a clear setup presents itself.

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

AGL is still consolidating in this resistance zone. This presents a good risk-reward setup for the patient trader. Wait for the break, in either direction, from this resistance zone and use a trailing stop to maximise the potential of this setup.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

AMS is looking good for a long trade. You could draw a small downward sloping trendline on the last month or so’s candles and use a bullish break of that as confirmation for a long entry. Momentum wise it looks good for a move higher though.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

ANG will naturally take its lead from Gold itself, although we think that once price is back to the trendline as indicated, it will present a high probability trade opportunity. Definitely one to keep on the watchlist.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is still in this range and is still looking like a medium to longer-term buy for us here. Short-term traders can try to trade the range, but we think the real power here is to buy for the longer-term once this range is broken to the upside.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

R642 needs to hold, else R583 opens up as a downside target.

Clicks Group (CLS)

Not all retailers are equal… CLS opens for a move to R239 after the R265 support is decisively broken.

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

CML looks like it has made a nice inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. This presents a decent entry point for medium-to-longer-term traders and investors.

Sasol (SOL)

Very nice and clean break on SOL finally starting to run out of a bit of momentum. SOL will take its lead from Oil next week, so the path forward is not exactly clear. Traders who got long on this trendline break can likely lock in at least some profits here. We still like SOL for the long-term, so we’d be looking to buy if there is any weakness in coming weeks.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

A bit of a riskier play here on SSW, but we like it for a long from within this support zone. You could put up a downward sloping trend line to act as a confirmation before taking the long trade is you want to be a little more risk averse.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

Not all retailers are equal… TFG looks like a proper short after a break and retest of the support zone. New lows coming?

Vodacom (VOD)

That R120 level is still on the radar on VOD. Friday saw the stock bounce off it rather well. Keep it on the watchlist for a potential play.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post To squeeze or not to squeeze appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

We’ve seen the large rising wedge formation give a bearish break. Now price has moved below the 89 day moving average, which is a key medium-term trend indicator in our book. It is interesting to see that on Friday the market tested the 89 day moving average from the bottom, but failed to break above it. This rejection of a key trend indicator opens the 200 day moving average as a potential downside target.

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX)

DTX has lost the 200 day moving average support. This is a longer-term trend indicator in our book and it being broken is worrying for the bulls. The immediate downtrend line (white) could act as a potential buy signal, but until that happens, the trend is down.

Brent Crude Oil

Maybe our bias is too strong, or maybe the chart is just bullish… either way, Oil is looking good for a push higher.

Xtrackers Physical Rhodium ETC Fund (XRHO)

It’s getting close now. A break above the white trend line here would make a good buying opportunity in our view. Should XHRO break higher, it could be a catalyst for local PGM stocks to get moving as well.

Platinum Futures (PL1!)

Platinum might also be on the verge of finally breaking its recent down trend.

USDZAR

Very short-term view here, but the breaking of the yellow trend line could see the USDZAR strengthen to about R14.50.

Bitcoin (BTC)

The usual weekly logarithmic chart for crypto’s. Fairly bullish looking setup. Perhaps it’s finally time for the fourth quarter pump?

Ethereum (ETH)

Two nice looking candles for the bulls on ETH.

American Tower (AMT)

AMT has had a sharp selloff in recent weeks. The last time we saw such a fast and furious selloff it turned out to be a great buying opportunity. Early signs of shifting momentum supports the long trade idea here.

Peabody Energy (BTU)

I don’t know if you guys have seen coal prices in China… or that coal power plants around the world are shutting down due to a shortage of coal…? BTU mines coal. A whole lot of coal. Very decent long setup here as well. Me..? I like the stock.

VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH)

It looks like the trend line break is playing out. You could probably see an inverse head and shoulders formation there as well if you squint hard enough. We’re looking for $240 as a target price.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 (ALSI)

Looks like the ALSI bounced to retest the 57700 level and is set up to trade lower once more. Downside target is 53000.

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS looks rather interesting. A reversal around R265 could provide a very high risk-reward long opportunity.

Impala Platinum (IMP)

Momentum wise it looks like IMP might be setting up for a bounce. If we see the two PGMs mentioned in the offshore trade ideas section above break higher, IMP could be a really good long from around these levels.

Mediclinic International (MEI)

MEI back to the bottom of the range?

Sanlam (SLM)

Looks like SLM is going to try break out of this range again. You can use a three day low as your trailing stop loss if you take this long trade.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

Very high risk-reward setup on SSW here. Once again dependent on PGMs in general, although the risk-reward is so great here it might just be worth taking a stab.

We’re talking to Ghosts!

We will be having a series of chats with The Finance Ghost and Mohammad Nalla during the month of September. Our goal is to educate the listeners and to let people out there know about what we do, and how we do it.

Jonathan talks about Day Trading, what it takes and what his journey was. This was a very insightful chat and is highly recommended for anyone who is actively trading, or thinking about becoming very actively involved in markets.

Want ideas, insights and research?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Purely a technical perspective appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Until then, there is not really too much to do from an index investing and trading perspective. We do think that there are some fairly massive opportunities in selected Asian markets and energy, but those are secrets we’re going to keep for our clients.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

Nothing really to see here. The trend is still intact and there is no signal to spur us into action.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

One range to rule them all…
No real change here, and thus no trading signal. We do note the bearish divergence between both oscillators and price. Will it be enough to break IWM out of the bottom of this range though?

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

$93.50 was tested and rejected. It seems now that the downside momentum is fading a little. There is a lot of Chinese data expected out next week, so making any short-term call here would likely be somewhat unwise. We suspect that DXY should stay under the $93 level (which is good for commodities) until there is a big enough catalyst (aka. shock event) to chase the fund managers back into ‘safety’.

Gold

Weekly gold chart update. Nothing really to add from previous weeks observations, but so far so good.

Platinum

Platinum has been under some pressure during the last few months. We note the bounce off an important support level. The next test for Platinum is going to be the tertiary (down)trend line [marked in white]. Ironically, this coincides with the 50 day moving average. A convincing break through resistance could serve as a good buy signal.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The ALSI is still stuck in the range. No signal to act at this stage.

Clicks Group (CLS)

Perhaps time to bank some of those CFD longs on CLS? Looks like a fairly decent shooting star / inverse hammer candle formation, along with sell signals on both the oscillators.

Capitec (CPI)

Oops, a few sell signals triggering on the wonder bank stock here. Perhaps a pullback to R1700?

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

Is this a fake out, or is this the start of a move back to the 200 day moving average?

Exxaro Resources (EXX)

This is a very constructive looking setup on EXX. The longer-term trend appears to be turning up again and price is about to break to a new recent high. With some ‘reflation’ as a backwind, EXX can do well into the last phase of the year.

Sanlam Limited (SLM)

Oh my word, these ranges… SLM has been going nowhere slowly for almost a year now and by the look of things, more of the same is the most likely outcome.

Want ideas, insights and research?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Nothing to see here appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

veld.app (providing an online store / technology solution), together with Food Lovers Market Fourways (organising parcels) and powelltronics.com (logistics management / delivery), have put together grocery parcels that they are flying down to Durban (KZN) to bring relief to those who need it most. I want to encourage every reader of this blog to support this initiative by purchasing/donating one of these parcels.

Our nation has proven time and again that nothing can stand in our way. And that no matter how dark times might be, there is a light of love and hope that shines in each and every one of us.

And on that note, let’s look at some charts shall we?

Offshore trade ideas

I want to preface the offshore section this week by gently reminder our readers that Herenya offers very low cost offshore trading and investment accounts ($2 a trade in US markets) and can help you with offshore transfers, tax clearance and managed offshore portfolios. In fact, our offshore model portfolio has performed rather robustly since its inception in March 2020.

Please feel free to contact us if you would like more information on our managed long-term investment account options.

Ok, let’s get into the shorter-term trading charts.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The last week was marred with drastically deteriorating market breadth. Fewer and fewer stocks are trading higher on a daily (and cumulative) basis and thus is appears that the U.S. market is preparing for a pull back. Our base expectation is that the SPY should pull back to at least the 50 day moving average before potentially finding any support. We’ve been buying the dip for a few weeks now, although given the current market breadth, this is a dip that we have shorted.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

IWM has moved toward the bottom of the range beautifully. Now we need to watch for a break or a bounce from this level. In either scenario, there is a high probability trading setup. Take note that usually these types of rectangular price formations are trend continuation patterns, so the bias should be bullish. Although unless market breadth improves (aka. advancers outnumber decliners) in the coming week, IWM might be the ‘leader’ on the way down.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Since we’re talking about pullbacks, QQQ is looking ripe for a short.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

It seems our dream of a pull back in the DXY is but a meme. DXY looking like it’s getting ready to break up toward $93.50.

USDZAR

I guess we’ll have to see what happens here. Personally, I think it’s a good time to buy some USD. The outcome of this chart will be determined by a few things; how the international investment community perceive the current situation in South Africa after a weekend of digesting the news, and how the DXY trades in the coming week. If we see a stronger USD and a general risk-off appetite for South Africa, I think that 200 day moving average might be broken and the ZAR could end above R15. Let’s see.

Brent Crude Oil

Semi-decent pullback last week. OPEC+ have over the weekend decided to increase production, so hold onto your butts because we might see Oil flushing out the weak longs.

South African trade ideas

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS is looking good for a short trade to the bottom of the range around R239. Decent risk-reward if you can get in around Friday’s close or higher.

Anheuser-busch Inbev (ANH)

Not the absolute best entry for this trade, but still a fairly decent risk-reward on offer.

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

Not really a trade idea per se, but if Loch Ness over here can keep it’s head out the water while the rest are drowning, this is going to be a stock to watch when the ‘recovery trade’ finally comes around. In other words, if DCP keeps consolidating sideways while the macro and micro-environments are pulling back… when both offshore and local markets pump again, this stock is probably going to fly! Note though, that is only if this current consolidation between R30.50 and R32.50 does not break down while other markets (and specifically, other retailers) are falling.

Cashbuild (CSB)

Another front-runner in the ‘recover trade’ will be CSB. The brave seemingly have already started positioning for an end to the unrest and the enormous rebuilding efforts that will no doubt take place. CSB is well positioned to benefit from small business and private individuals repairing and rebuilding damaged buildings in the coming year.

Discovery (DSY)

I’ve bailed on the long trade here and might even consider going short below the R120 level.

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is looking very weak here and is ticking the boxes for a secondary down trend. Weaker Oil prices might aid the short trade here as well. Stop at R220, target at R180, try get an entry above R205 to make it worth it.

Support KZN this Mandela Day

Once again, if you are in a position to make a donation to support KZN this Mandela Day, please do so by buying/donating an essential grocery parcel for a family of four via the veld.app store. Last year I worked on the Say Siyabonga project with some wonderfully amazing people, and some of those very same people are behind this initiative to bring critical food supply to those who need it most in the wake of recent events. Every donation helps.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Support KZN this Mandela Day appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

The rising wedge is tightening and bearish divergence has emerged on both momentum oscillators. The time for a pullback nears. This turns our bias toward the downside. The 50 day moving average, currently coinciding with the lower channel support, will be the key level to watch in the week ahead. A bounce from it is possible, although it is more likely that the support fails. A break below the key support would offer a great risk-reward short trade to the $350 level (200 day moving average).

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ has broken out of and retested its upward trending channel. It looks to be making an ABC correction. A short trade can be entered with a stop just above the highs of ‘B’ and a target price of $275 (‘C’). The time for a pullback is upon us.

Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is still trading in its corrective channel (green), thus right now there is not too much else to do but to wait for either a break out of the lower end of the channel, or a break above the 200 day moving average. Our bias here is toward the downside, thus Dollar weakness, although we will have to be patient and allow the market to show us what it wants to do.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

The VIX has not closed a week below 20 for over a year. We’d pointed out last week that if we can get a clear break below 20, equity indices should be able to sustain their currently rally. This has not happened though and therefore we remain cautious on global equities. Bond yields are going higher and interest rates are likely to follow in the medium term. This will have an impact on equity valuations in due course and therefore could lead to a slightly larger scale correction in the weeks to come.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil has formed a bearish three bar reversal pattern on the weekly timeframe. This will likely not be the end of the uptrend, although could well lead to a decent correction. Our expectation is that it is time for a pullback and that Oil trades lower to retest the trend line. We expect the uptrend to remain intact, although if the trend line breaks, all bets are off.

Gold

Gold continues to bounce toward the previous support/resistance level. Should it break above $1765, we could see Gold trading up to test the zone between the 50 and 89 day moving averages. We have to remain aware of the fact that the turnaround in fortunes of 10 year US treasury yields could have a lasting impact on the Gold price. If treasury yields continue to rise, it will very likely be positive for precious metals and commodities in general and therefore we are shifting out stance to neutral on Gold and gold miners in general. Perhaps this current move turns out to be a small correction in a larger downtrend, although we are open to the possibility that given the ‘return of inflation and rising interest rates’ narrative could help the gold price form a base to trade higher.

USDZAR

We’re looking at both the daily and weekly charts on the USDZAR. On the weekly, we can see that short-lived false break from the downtrend line and how firmly the downtrend has resumed. On the daily chart we can see the importance of the R14.50 level. Our thinking is that we’ll likely see the USDZAR break below R14.50 and continue to strengthen towards R13.00 to the USD.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

So much for the steps higher we looked at last week. Is it time for a pullback? Currently the Top 40 has found support on the 50 day moving average, although once that level is broken, we’ll be scrambling for support around the 89 day moving average.

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

Rising bond yields will have some positive effects, which will likely play out in commodity prices. AGL has also been in a healthy uptrend for around a year now. Highlighted in the chart is the area between the 50 and 89 day moving average which we think could be a nice trend following buy zone.

BHP Billiton (BHP)

The 50 day moving average failed after we had pointed out a possible long trade, although this setup is looking even more attractive to us now. Once again it offers a high risk-reward long trade entry, backing the primary trend.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

BTI has moved nicely higher. The 200 day moving average could put up a bit of a fight and beyond that, the upper channel resistance at R590 could potentially stop the bullish move in its tracks. Watching for either a reversal at the resistance, or a bullish break of it, would likely yield s high probability trading setup.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

The flat top triangle formation on CFR has broken lower and the time for a pullback is upon us. The question now is whether or not the R140 level holds. Currently CFR appears to be offering a decent counter trend trade, although it would be wise to wait for a break (and hold) below R140 before entering a short position. A potential short target could be R132.

Clicks Group (CLS)

R239 is currently both a key support level as well as the 200 day moving average. A break below offers a decent short trade, with a target potentially as low at R220. Retailers in general have traded very well in recent weeks, thanks for decent trading results. With that positive fundamental backwind now mostly dissipating, it seems that it’s time for a pullback.

Gold Fields (GFI)

Gold might be forming a base, spurred on by rising bond yields. As mentioned earlier, we are staying rather open minded about the way forward for Gold, although it must be said that we do have a slight bullish bias at this stage. Given that context and the fact that GFI has broken and held above its 89 day moving average, we think that there is enough reason to enter into a long trade on GFI. The stop loss here would be under R135 with a first target at R159 (which would negate the previously shown Head and Shoulders pattern), second target at R170 and above that a trailing stop loss based on average true range.

Glencore PLC (GLN)

GLN has what looks to be a bull flag setup with support on the 50 day moving average. There is also evidence of bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator. It would be wise to wait for a confirmed breakout of the bull flag before entering a long trade though.

Growthpoint Properties (GRT)

GRT is retesting the long-term trend lines. All three the medium and longer-term trend lines are stacked on top of each other and are likely to provide a strong base of support. Currently GRT is looking very attractive for longer-term equity investors (or long-term traders) to enter into new long positions.

Sasol (SOL)

SOL reversed from the resistance at R234 and with Oil prices likely to come under pressure, it seems that SOL has some downside yet to come. That said, we like the idea of accumulating SOL in the highlighted zone between the 20 and 50 day moving averages. Although there are some short-term headwinds for the Oil price in general, we think that Oil prices, and thus SOL, will continue to trend strongly higher over the medium-term (aka. over the next few years).

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Time for a pullback? appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

Last week when I looked at the SPY, I noted a trend line break. Paired with the VIX sell signal generated in the previous weekly game plan, I took a very cautious approach. This view has not changed. Although the SPY went on to make a new high, I still feel that risk is elevated here. For now, there is no setup for me to trade on the SPY either. Therefore I am still in ‘trade half size’ mode as the overall market is feeling very ‘risky’ at the moment.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (IYY)

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… the good setups take a long time to play out. As far as technical trade ideas go, IYY serves as a good example of that. The $98.50 and $103.00 targets are born of a Fibonacci retracement and projection. The first target of $98.50 has arguably been hit. The second (full) target is at $103.00. I guess we’ll see how it goes this week. Odds are good that markets come storming out the blocks this week, so for now I am not discounting the possibility of the full $103.00 target being hit.

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX)

I left the channel on the DTX chart for a few reasons. The DTX has broken out of the bottom of the channel and is now retesting it, and DTX has not made a new high. It is perhaps too early to tell right now, but this could be the making of a decent bearish setup. One to keep an eye on.

DTX vs IYY

According to the the original Dow Theory; when both the transportation average and the industrial average make two or more consecutive lower highs and lower lows, we are in a bear market. This is not the case right now as you could argue that IYY made a new high. That said, it is most definitely worth noting that DTX did not. Again, no real signal just yet, but something to keep watching.

Brent crude oil

Less than 50 cents away from the $60.00 target. I’m going to call this one ‘target reached’. From here, trailing stop losses with an expectation that the up trend continues.

Gold

The key support (both horizontal support and the 200 day moving average) has been broken. Things are not looking good for gold right now. Perhaps once we see some more brrr this might catch a bid again. For now, gold is looking pretty weak. Perhaps we’ll see some support at $1775?

Dollar index (DXY)

Both the falling wedge and inverse head and shoulders seem to be playing out. We saw a rout of Dollar weakness on Friday, so the question now is whether or not that continues in the week ahead. For now, the $94 target remains in place, although is the 50 day moving average is broken, we could see the current primary (down) trend continue.

USDZAR

Same old USDZAR chart, still no setup. We’ve go to be patient with this one.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

It’s hard to take Dogecoin seriously, although it was hard to take BTC seriously at the beginning too. Either way, this is looking like a fairly strong setup. Should BTC pump this year (which I expect it will), Dogecoin will likely do very well. I like this setup on Dogecoin for a long.

Ethereum (ETH)

The previous all time high has been broken. A pull back to the $1420.00 would be really nice to see for a great long entry. That said, with a (wide) trailing stop and a rationally sized position, this can likely be bought with the intention to hodl.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Buy the BTC break above $42k, but be responsible and take it small. There is a $12k wide stop loss on this setup (below $29.5k). Manage risk first, worry about how cool rocket rides are later.

South African Trade ideas

Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The trend is your friend. It looks like the ALSI should go up to make new highs.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

BTI is still range bound. Perhaps the best game plan here would be to wait for a possible reversal below R500 again?

Harmony Gold Mining (HAR)

Sticking with purely technical trade ideas, HAR is on the last line of defense. A break below R61.40 could be a great short trade with a stop loss above R70.00.

Capital & Counties Properties (CCO)

CCO break above significant resistance in the form of both horizontal resistance and the 200 day moving average. The potential for a medium to longer-term trend change is on the cards. Stop loss below the bottom of the recent range.

BHP Billiton (BHP)

Makings of a bull flag on BHP. A break higher here would not only be our of the bull flag, but also off the 50 day moving average. This is also a very high risk-reward setup.

Clicks Group (CLS)

The blue trend line is still holding. Perhaps a trade back up to the resistance at R270.00 with a stop below R240.00?

Gold Fields (GFI)

The mother of all Head and Shoulders patterns? This could drop all the way to R60.00 if Gold comes off, the ZAR strengthens and there is a mild amount of panic among GFI longs. Let’s see how it plays out.

Investec PLC (INP)

INP is lagging the other banks. A break above this resistance line could see it catching up pretty quickly.

Mediclinic (MEI)

Nice little range break. Can MEI catch up to NTC? Blocking out the noise and sticking to purely technical trade ideas… this looks like a long to me.

Reinet Investments (RNI)

RNI is in a range between R262.00 and R290.00. It’s offering a decent risk-reward on the long trade here.

South32 (S32)

Not the world’s best setup, but some fairly clear bearish divergence. Perhaps a break below the 50 day moving average can serve as a nice entry signal for a short trade?

Sanlam (SLM)

SLM has been on my watch list for what feels like an age now. On Thursday the buy signal was finally triggered. I think we see a decent rally here and perhaps even a medium to longer-term trend change.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

No set of technical trade ideas will be complete without considering at least one candle formation. TFG is showing what could turn out to be a shooting star.

Truworths (TRU)

TRU is also showing what might turn out to be a shooting star candle formation. Here we see the (potential) shooting star, right under a key (long-term) horizontal resistance level. The retailers have maybe just gone too far too fast.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Technical trade ideas appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

That could be the result of the blue wave sweeping across the U.S. and the belief that democrats will do whatever it takes to ‘keep the party going’. It could also just be on the back of the world starting to recover from COVID and sort of getting back to business as usual. Time will tell how much longer the market can go up. Probably for at least another year. In the very short-term though, we think there could be some turbulence.

Offshore trading ideas

S&P500 (SPY)

Our base expectation here is that the breakout should still play out over time. Nonetheless, we must point out the growing divergence between price and the Stochastic oscillator, as well as, sell signals being generated by the MACD. We would not be too surprised to see a pull back and a retest of the large consolidation though. Hence we are staying open to two scenarios; the blue consolidation upper resistance (now support) holds and we continue to see our expected move toward $400.00, or, the support fails and the market scrambles for support around the 50 day moving average. Unless that bearish divergence is nullified soon, the second scenario appears to be the highest probability outcome for now. Long story short, be careful with the longs.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

We’ve been looking at the bearish divergence on the QQQ for a little while now. As is the case with the SPY, this divergence either needs to be nullified soon, or we’d expect for this large channel to break. In this particular case, should the lower channel support (coinciding with the 50 day moving average) break, we’d expect the QQQ to trade toward $270.00 and the 200 day moving average.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (IYY)

Our target on IYY remains $103.00. With the same overbought narrative though, in the very short-term it is looking rather fragile. From a pure price trend perspective though, it would seem that waiting for a dip to buy is the way to go.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

IWM broke out of the upper end of the channel and has managed to hold above it for the week. Once again there are some momentum concerns here. Should IWM trade back into the channel, we think it is rather likely to see it testing at least the 50 day moving average. Let’s watch though, because some brrrr to pump the call options might just keep traders greedy enough to keep piling into small caps.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Could SOX be the canary in the coal mine? That is a shooting star candle formation, on a key resistance level, with bearish divergence (not shown) and the first of four sell signals being generated by the stochastic oscillator. If we had only one chart to give us an idea of what the week ahead holds and we looked at SOX, we’d be putting on some shorts. Be careful out there this week. The mighty Dollar might be mighty mighty, but semiconductors just might be signalling a pull back for the equity markets here.

Brent crude oil

Brent crude oil has had a good run. Honestly, we don’t think that it is over just yet. That said… “nothing moves in straight lines”. Perhaps a test back to the $52.50 level before forming a base from which to trade higher?

Gold

Well, would you look at that? The support that needed to hold… didn’t. If the mighty Dollar fights back properly, gold and other commodities are likely to come under pressure. We’re open to the idea that this might be a fake break below a key support, so we don’t want to be too hasty. We’ll give it a day or so to get a feel for what it wants to do before making any calls, but for now we’re thinking that it might be time to close the gold longs.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The mighty Dollar fights back! This falling wedge is breaking our very nicely. We’d like to see it clear the 50 day moving average now and head toward our target at $94.00.

USDZAR

We’re looking at a weekly chart on the USDZAR. There are a few signs of a trend change, although we need a few more data points (weeks) before there are any valid setups here. If the DXY keeps firming though, the mighty Dollar will likely globber the ZAR and we could see a trend change. For now though, we see no setup on the USDZAR.

South African Trade ideas

Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Here we have both the daily and 1 hour chart for the J200 Top 40 Index (more commonly known as the ALSI). We note a tight consolidation on the daily. Looking at the 1 hour chart, we see a very clear rectangular consolidation that we think is offering a great trading opportunity. Once that consolidation breaks, we think we could see a fast and strong move. Our bias currently is toward the downside.

Blue Label Telecoms (BLU)

BLU is looking fairly good. It’s looking like it’s made (and broken out of) a rounding bottom. In the longer-term, this would be a trend continuation setup.

Barloworld (BAW)

BAW broke it’s consolidation, although has not really gotten going. Our bias is still long here, especially over the long-term.

BHP Billiton (BHP)

BHP might be a good play here if that bull flag breaks, although perhaps it needs to come off to test some moving averages first? No trade setup for us here. This is just one that we are watching for now.

Bidvest (BVT)

BVT is still looking good to us. We need to wait for it to break out before we can take it though.

Clicks Group (CLS)

Well ok, it’s not just the mighty Dollar, but also the mighty CLS! The resistance broken here is significant, make no mistake of that. The question is though, is it a fake break or does it have some follow through? Although we can’t know the answer until more time has passed, we like the risk-reward on the long trade here.

Dis-chem Pharmacies (DCP)

Break, retest, go! At least that’s what it looks like. We think that our long trades here should do well.

Impala Platinum (IMP)

The mighty Dollar could come and spoil this party, but overall this flat top triangle is looking pretty solid. Depending on how you draw the upper resistance of the triangle, it may or may not have broken out. We would like to see at least one more green day and higher close before committing to a trade here.

Investec (INL)

INL seems to be on track for a medium-term trend change (as so many of the financials stocks are). The bull flag has broken and all the moving averages are pointing up. Watch out for liquidity in this bad boy though, since there is still the INP and INL listings, liquidity on these can be sparse and big moves can happen on small volume. Best to use a daily close when setting your stop loss.

Kumba Iron Ore (KIO)

All good things come to an end. Our target was R680.00 and it actually traded through that level (although only briefly). It seems now that the recent up trend has broken. We also note that momentum indicators are firing off sell signals. There could probably be a short trade in here back down to the 50 day moving average.

HCA offshore trading

Want to action some trade ideas on US Index ETFs? Our offshore trading account only carries a $2 per trade brokerage fee for U.S. listed equities.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The mighty Dollar fights back appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P500 (SPY)

The breakout here seems to be on track with momentum remaining bullish. Our target for this trade is $397.30, derived from the large range. Democrats are now fully in charge of the U.S. and the odds of another stimulus cheque coming in the mail for the average American is pretty high. That creates a lot of optimism, and markets rally on optimism. The blue wave is here and the equity indices are ready to surf.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Well, we’d thought that this index would likely come down to test the lower supports of the range it has been trading in. As it turns out, IWM broke out of the top of the channel. This is generally very bullish and could lead to a very strong push higher. We note that the market made a bit of a hanging man candle formation on the daily chart on Friday. That is a little concerning to us as it is usually a topping sign. In this context it is just above a key resistance level as well, which adds to its credibility. On the flip side though, momentum seems to have shaken off any bearishness it had. Our gut says “long”, but our brain says “wait”. We’ll be watching this rather closely on Monday.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Another head scratcher, really. There is strong evidence of bearish divergence, and yet momentum indicators are about to generate a buy signal. We’ll probably see QQQ keep trending higher and eventually test the upper end of the channel. The bus is full and cruising at top speed… no use in standing in front of it hoping it will stop in time to not flatten you. Long target $355.00.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (IYY)

We used a Fibonacci retracement and projection to give us a target of $103 on the IYY a few weeks ago. At the time it seemed a little crazy, but it seems that all the boilers are running and this boat is on its way. Sometimes you just need to forget all the other noise in the market and trust your charts.

Dollar Index (DXY)

Over the past few months the DXY has been trending down very reliably. It seems now that the trend of a weakening USD has come to and end. We note a falling wedge formation on the DXY, supported by bullish divergence on both the MACD and stochastic oscillators. Should the falling wedge break, we’re targeting around the $94 level.

USDZAR

What’s a weekly game plan without at least one grossly over complicated chart? Well, here we have the USDZAR. It reached our target of R14.50 and with the DXY looking like it will move towards USD strength, the USDZAR is looking very fragile. We see a lot of things happening here; first we hit some resistance at the upper end of a long-term (weekly) range (marked in purple). Once that resistance is broken then next line of defense is the black downtrend line. Once that breaks the USDZAR enters into a bit of no man’s land before the R16.16 resistance level comes into play. Should that resistance at R16.16 break, we could have significant weakness on the cards if the 200 day moving average fail to hold. From a momentum perspective, USDZAR weakness looks highly probable as well. Hold onto your hats, because things might get a little wild in the coming weeks.

Ethereum (ETH)

Weekly, logarithmic chart on ETH (as is our preferred way to analyse cryptocurrencies). Our eyes on the $1595 level here as we think that ETH could test it in the week ahead. We think that a break above the previous all time high ($1595) is a buy. When the world is going mad, we can either fight it, or profit from it. Just remember that gearing could do a lot of damage if you are on the wrong side, so please be very careful when trading these things.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Massive flag formation breaking here. For now there is no setup to enter into new trades here, although a decent pullback would be worth buying. Out thinking is that we should see BTC tag the $50,000.00 level before putting in any kind of significant pullback. We think that we could see BTC putting in 40% – 50% pullbacks while this parabolic move plays out over the next year. Our plan is to add each time we get a fast and vicious pullback in excess of 30% with a end of year price target of $200,000.00. Nothing like the blue wave in the U.S. to further promote monetary stimulus and drive individuals and institutions to buy more BTC.

Gold

Well, well, well… the breakout from the bull flag is not going according to plan at all. The frenzied bullishness being created by the blue wave is not so bullish for Gold though. Gold is now sitting on two support levels; the $1848 horizontal support as well as the 200 day moving average. Those levels need to hold, else Gold is likely in for some downside here. With such strong “risk-on” setups on the equities indices, honestly it’s not looking good for Gold. We note that momentum is triggering sell signals here as well. Perhaps the play here is to short once the support breaks?

Brent Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil solidly on the way to our $60.00 target. Nothing really to do here but sit tight and trail up those stop losses.

Harmony Gold Mining (HMY)

Our long trade in HMY (Harmony Gold Mining ADR – listed on NYSE) seems to be in some serious trouble here. With the current situation unfolding on the DXY, equities indices and the Gold price, we think that HMY could test the lower end of the range (flag formation) in which it has been trading. Thus, both offshore and locally, we think that it’s best to sidestep the gold miners for a little while.

South African trade ideas

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN seems to be on the way to the upper end of the range. Friday’s candle is a bit worrying thought. it’s not exactly ticking all the boxes to be classed as a shooting star formation, although it certainly is ticking some. We’ll start seeing some volume return to our market in the coming week though, so perhaps momentum will overrule individual candle formations here. Trailing stop on the longs from here, with the target at around R165.00.

Kumba Iron Ore (KIO)

The failed head and shoulders setup has pretty much played out. The full target is R680.00 and it got might close to that on Thursday. We’re not exactly sure if the push ends here though, so we’re switching to a trailing stop loss and allowing this one to run a little.

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

Very nice little bull flag breaking here on DCP. The breakout is confirmed by a buy signal being generated on the MACD. Targets of R24.00 and R26.00 on the long trade here. You had to quick to catch this one on Friday, so if you are not in already, don’t chase it above R23.00 because the risk-reward will not be worth it anymore.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

From our best setup last week, to the one we are most probable to bail on. That said, there is a chance that the last three trading days (three red candles) could be forming a bull flag… We’re not willing to fight against the trend though, so a close below R337.00 will stop us out.

Anheuser Busch Inbev (ANH)

This little setup has been brewing for a few weeks and looks to have finally triggered a long trade. Some mixed signals from a momentum perspective with the MACD generating a buy signal, but the stochastic giving the first of four sell signals. For now the body of evidence weights in favour of the long trade. Stop loss below the lower end of the range, to be trailed higher using ATRx2 method once the trade is deep enough in the money.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

We’ve taken some money off the table here as the bounce has finally run out of steam. Back to R520.00 from here?

Bidvest (BVT)

BVT is starting to line up nicely for a decent long in our view. Above R160.00 opens the door for R190.00 as a first target. Momentum starting to look very bullish as well. Clear stop loss with a good risk-reward on offer. We like this setup, but need to be patient enough to allow it to confirm our entry.

Clicks Group (CLS)

Right, so CLS is almost at the R270.00 level again. Historically it’s been a good sell in this region, although perhaps now it’s time to watch for a bullish break from this level? This is also a rather large flat top triangle. Things could get interesting here if that R270.00 level breaks. Wait for a clear hold of that level though. Momentum is in the middle of nowhere and the stock has been in this range for a very, very long time. The best way to see it is that it is reaching a point of opportunity. It can either reverse at resistance, or break above. Both scenarios has great risk-reward profiles. We just need to be patient enough for the market to show us which one to back.

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

Attempt number two at breaking the R45.00 level for CML. This time it’s different though (haha, famous last words). CML earnings are closely related to market performance. When the market rallies, so do their funds. This means that Assets Under Management increases, earning them more management fees. Also, when the funds do well, that sweet, sweet performance fee comes into play and adds to the bottom line. CML’s time to pop might well have come.

EOH (EOH)

Nice pennant here on EOH. A strong break higher could see the R12.00 and R14.00 level being tested.

Investec (INL)

Solid bull flag setup on INL. Targets are R44.00 then R48.00.

Imperial Logistics (IPL)

IPL is setting up nicely for a break from that range. Only once above R44.00 will the long be confirmed. For now though, we’re seeing a number of momentum based long triggers firing off one after the other. Worth keeping an eye on we think.

Shoprite Holdings (SHP)

The bull flag on SHP hasn’t broken yet, but it’s still on our watchlist.

Sanlam (SLM)

SLM looking fairly similar to IPL. We need to wait for the range to break before making any moves. It does look really good for a long though.

Sasol (SOL)

Choo choo! The SOL train is coming through! All the boilers are running at full steam and this boat is on its way to R234. This stock is actually one of our top picks for 2021. We think it could get as high as R300 this year. Time will tell, but for now it looks fairly solid to test that upper resistance at R234.00.

Time to switch to DMA CFDs?

Uhm, yes! It was never a good idea to trade Over the Counter CFDs anyway… move your trading account to Herenya and start trading DMA CFDs with a team of traders who take trading as seriously as you do.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The blue wave lifts all ships appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.