Oh, and just a side note, you will notice that we used many weekly charts this week. We did this on purpose, in order to re-take stock of where we are in the medium to longer-term. Sometimes we get very focused on the day-to-day movements and we lose track of where we are. Thus, we look at some weekly charts this week to gain some broader perspective of the trends and patterns playing out in our and other markets.

Bigger picture (offshore markets)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Finally the follow through came (after some good data on Friday). Next level to clear is $430, then it’s clear skies for $461.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

This run is incredible. We think that there is likely much more upside to be had as well, as the A.I. craze is only really getting started in our view. Next target here is $371.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

ACWI breakout also finally printing a new high. Upside target is $102.

Gold

It’s still not looking great for the gold bugs, and we reiterate our call that gold will eventually (maybe in a year or two) retest the bottom of this range at $1650.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Lowest close on VIX since covid. Interesting. We mentioned last week that we might see a ‘return to pre-covid normal’ on the VIX. It might not seem like much, but to have the VIX bottom out around 10 instead of 15 is rather telling of how much less ‘fear’ is influencing the market. Time for some greed to come in and push things to way beyond where they ought to be. It’s buy time!

Brent Crude Oil

Oil remains range bound for now.

USDZAR

Geepers, can we have some reprieve please!? Although our longer-term target is around R21 to the USD, we do think that we will see a bit of a pullback on the back of stronger overall equities next week. Here’s hoping for R18.60.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

It was a wild week, but at least we ended higher. We’re bullish again this week, and although the ALSI chart looks a mess, you will see why when we look at stocks just after this. A general note on this chart though; we’re going to print new highs within the next three months.

Bidvest (BVT)

This flag formation on the daily chart has whipsawed us a few times, but once again it has given a buy signal. Maybe if we say ‘it’s buy time’ enough times this stock will finally catch a bid(vest)?

ABSA Group (ABG)

ABG has been testing and holding the R152 level for a few weeks now. We can see that this level is rather significant. A long trade here with a target at R200 would likely be a good trade. Remember, weekly charts, so it will take a long while to work out.

Anglo American (AGL)

Well it’s not exactly on the level marked in green, but it has been holding R560 like a champion for a good while now. We think it is safe to get long here and look for R760 as a target. Just keep in mind, as is the case with all upside targets, once reached you need to switch over to a trailing stop loss so that you can continue to benefit if the stock keeps trending higher.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

So, we want to say that ANH is a buy at R1025… but, nobody is buying Budweiser and it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon. So, we’ll rather say that around R1025 it looks interesting, but we need to wait for confirmation that it is in fact what it says it is, uuhm, we mean that the level holds, before getting involved. Can’t be too careful these days.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN is still looking fairly bullish in our book. The bullish divergence shown last week on the daily chart does not show up on the weekly, but the stock did close the week close to the highs which has us in good spirits.

BHP Group (BHG)

BHG is trading in a nice upward slanting channel. Up through the middle of the channel and we should see the stock testing the top. Our target for now is R640.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

BTI is once again back to the lows. We reiterate our call for R584 as a downside target.

Clicks Group (CLS)

CLS printed a (almost) hammer on the R239 support. This creates a pretty clear long opportunity with a great risk-reward. It’s buy time!

Sasol (SOL)

SOL is forming a nice base here. We think that it might be a safe time to re-enter the long-term longs here. It’s buy time here for sure.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s buy time! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas (bigger picture)

S&P 500 (SPY)

The upper resistance looms, and the market feels like it is running out of a bit of steam. There are now also multiple counts of bearish divergence on this chart, so we are comfortable with our targets lower down. There might be some fight left in this bear market rally yet… but not much in our view. Santa might not come this year.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Is that the end of the correction on DXY? It looks like it is trying to put in a bottom and get back on the ‘strengthening’ train. It is perhaps important to stress that the support level between 103 and 104 is a very important level that has proven to be significant over a few decades. Thus, we still do think that there is a chance the market might want to go test that support. Should it turn here and not get much closer to support as what it did last week, it seems that new highs on DXY might soon be on the cards.

USDZAR

USDZAR is still on a bit of a make-or-break level here as it thoroughly tests the tertiary trend support. There is some bullish divergence between the stochastic oscillator and price at this point as well. Our thinking is that we see a strong upward push from DXY paired with a solid bounce from the USDZAR. In other words, we aim higher, to a weaker Rand.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

This might be a good time to remind you that you need to buy protection when you can, not when you need it. With some luck we could have another week of mildly stronger markets as the SPY tests its down trend line, and the VIX tick down into that 18 to 22 region. This would make a good buying opportunity for VIX calls, striking at 30 with about 6 months to expiry. Santa might not come this year and if he doesn’t, you’re going to wish you had coal (lol, poor Europe) and VIX calls.

Brent Crude Oil

$86 is a very, very important level at this point. The long trade off this level, in our view, is probably a high risk-reward setup that is worth trading. That said, given the overall macroeconomic condition of the world, oil demand is under pressure. We’ve mentioned before that we are stubbornly holding onto our views, but unless oil can hold this level and start to push higher soon, we might have to relook and reconsider our position. For now, we think this is an easy long, but we have to remain flexible and open to the idea that perhaps the party is over. Time will tell.

Deutsche Boerse DAX Index (DAX)

Speaking of Europe, the DAX looks, well, difficult to read. Given our overall view of global markets, we think that it could be a sell (short) around 14800 (if it gets that high). We note some bearish divergence as well. Maybe it has just pushed a little too much too soon? Santa might not come this year and this chart is looking like it will be very disappointed if he does not.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Well, there weren’t any moves over 4% last week, so we suppose that’s a good thing. The time has come to clear the annotations from this chart and look at it with a fresh perspective. Despite the bearishness in the macro and offshore environment, we are actually rather bullish on the local market. We are seeing more and more bullish setups and also believe that Emerging Markets will outperform the Developed Markets over the next few years. This could be driven by a shift from ‘growth’ to ‘value’ and a mad scramble for commodities and resources. South Africa, believe it or not, is well placed for that type of scenario. There is also a slight backwind of ratings agencies starting to give us the thumbs up again. It’s a confusing time to be honest, and even though Santa might not come this year, we do think that we should not overlook the buying opportunities that will create in our own market. We have been ‘relatively’ stronger, well, perhaps not in USD terms, but there is a great amount of value to be found in our market and being too bearish ‘locals’ might prove unwise.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

And just to cleanse the pallet, we present the short that is not working… Ta-daa! ANH. We may still see this work now that momentum is starting to roll over and it has not really managed to push out of the resistance zone, but we are open to stopping out and running for the hills (again) if it keeps pushing higher.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

This is a weekly chart on TFG, showing a break of support and building downside momentum. Do we see it trade back to the R60 region? Since Santa might not come this year, how many people are going to be lining up for Black Friday specials this coming weekend? Are festive season retail sales going to be strong enough to turn this entire boat around? We think not many, and no.

Sun International (SUI)

Alright, ok, time for some good news. Santa might not be coming, but local tourism surely is. Again, we look at a weekly chart, this time of SUI. We note the flat top triangle breaking to the upside and a continued post-covid recovery in the sector. Remember we’d mentioned that there is much value to be had in South Africa? Well, this is one of those undervalued and overlooked stocks (and sectors) in our view.

ABSA Bank Group (ABG)

Our local banks might be a good place to look for value as well, and ABG has broken a large range and managed to hold above the upper range extreme for some time now. We take this as bullish and think that a long trade here is rather safe.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Santa might not come this year appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas (bigger picture)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Although we’ve now seen this tertiary trend line break to the downside, we still think that it is most likely we see the top of the channel before pushing a new low.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Interesting to see that the tech stocks did not participate in the bounce in the same way that commodities and other ‘hard assets’ did. This fuels our view that commodities and energy still have a lot of upside left, while tech will remain under pressure for some time to come.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

We’ve included the ACWI chart as an indication of how close we are getting to our downside targets. Perhaps hanging onto them (our targets) here is the wrong call, but for now we still think there is more to be had on the downside. Again, this is with the caveat that in the very short-term we do expect the overall market to keep bouncing into the first half of November. Our thinking is that a strong result from the republican camp will be good for markets.

Brent Crude Oil

This large range is in charge on Oil in our view. Not long before we are at the top of it once again. Energy longs are likely to be the best play for the next few months (still).

USDZAR

Stronger markets + stronger commodities = stronger emerging market currencies. This correction seems to be gaining some steam and our sub-R17.50 target remains on the table.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Friday was an extreme day. For context, we’ve added an ALSI chart from 2020 in which we’ve highlighted some of the largest up (and down) days in recent, well, decades. Friday’s rally shows just how much volatility is king at the moment… From here we could see another 5%+ squeeze, or a 4%+ pullback. It’s really wild out there and we really want to preach caution. It’s been a rough year and just making out the other end will be an achievement. Now, we can hear you saying: “such a big up day, in comparison with March 2020, surely indicates the bottom!” And in truth, that line of reasoning in not wrong. It could well be the bottom. We still think that there is downside to be had in a just generally more volatile regime (after all, volatility is king), but that does not mean we are right. To be clear, our long-term positioning is still around 25% cash / 15% fixed income / 50% equities (with an energy and commodity skew) and we are not looking to change that positioning anytime soon. In the short-term though, it’s been whipsaw city and short-term trading has been really challenging. Patience and resilience are required regardless of which side of the fence you are on at the moment.

ABSA Group (ABG)

The trend is your friend, and surely, it’s looking decent for the banking stocks heading into next week. ABG had a great breakout from a large range and is looking to keep trending higher for the time being. Stop loss below R192.50.

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

AGL, BHP and GLN will soon be the bells of the ball in our view. AGL seems to have broken out of a consolidation pattern but waiting for another day to confirm is probably the wise move here. If China comes back ‘online’ in any meaningful way, commodities are going to fly! So, keep an eye on news from China regarding their Zero Covid policy. Those are most likely to move commodity markets.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

We’re just putting this chart up to tell you that we are licking our wounds and very sorry that we ever even tried to short commodities. For real though.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Breaking the resistance zone, attempt number three! Will it do it this time?

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

Make or break support level here. Great high risk-reward entry available on both the long and short trades here. Take your lead from the ALSI before equities open.

FirstRand (FSR)

Decent long setup here with a 1:2 risk-reward.

Glencore (GLN)

GLN got fined for literally flying cash around Africa in private jets to bribe ministers and all the rest. It then looked in its bag of f’s and saw that it had none to give. Up, up and away!

Impala Platinum (IMP)

IMP looks about as good as AGL above. We could be in for a proper breakout here if we can get above resistance.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

TFG is still in the support zone, and we think still likely a good long play. Earnings is coming up though, so odds are that a direction will be chosen once the numbers are known. Patience for now. Maybe best to wait for results before putting on any trades here.

Woolworths (WHL)

We’re probably a bit late to the party here, but a decent bull flag is playing out on WHL here. We’re not going to chase this one, but there might be other bullish setups in the retailers space worth looking out for.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Volatility is king appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas (bigger picture)

S&P 500 (SPY)

So, we’ve not hit the downside target yet and by the looks of this chart, SPY is trying to put in a short-term bottom. All indications are that we see a bit of a bounce from the lows here. It’s been a rough year so far and sentiment has gotten extremely pessimistic. This is evidenced in options positioning as well, with the vast majority of contracts trading being puts. The market being the market, is likely going to push for the ‘max pain’ trade, which is currently higher. Therefore, we believe that we are very likely in for a violent short squeeze. Odds are good that the bulls will get sucked in, chewed up and spat out in the process, but for now, we think markets will be strong at least during the first half of next week.

All Country World Index (ACWI)

The $77.34 level marked on the ACWI chart is in fact well below the pre-covid high (which was around $82). Our target in the $70 to $72 region is based on a chart we did rather long ago and thus the target still lives on our chart. Although the trend is firmly down here, we can see a similar bottoming pattern on ACWI as on SPY. The trick here, and on SPY, is to take out the pattern high (this consolidation we’ve seen over the last two weeks needs to break higher). Let’s see how it goes. We’re not removing our downside target; we are just not expecting it to be hit before a short-term bounce.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

It looks like the trend is being tested here. Technically it’s made a symmetrical triangle, but as we know, they can break either way with about equal probability. Our thinking at present is that it is likely to break lower and likely boost global equities in the process.

USDZAR

The Rand is also seemingly testing its recent trend. Should the tertiary trend line (steepest) break, we think it could retrace as far as R17.25 before finding support.

Brent Crude Oil

We’ve removed our previous annotations from this chart and only added in what we think is a large range in which oil is likely to trade for the foreseeable future. Ironically, this is still a bullish view, not only on oil, but on energy as a whole.

S&P 500 Volatility Index

The VIX is still below 35, so the wheels have not yet completely fallen off the bus. We maintain our view that above 35 things get spicey (for global equities), although we do think that in the short-term we likely see volatility subside somewhat and equities put in a bit of a relief rally.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The 60000 level has been putting up some staunch resistance, but by the looks of the tails on the two most recent candles, it won’t last too much longer. Perhaps we see 62000 next week?

ABSA Group (ABG)

With all this talk of short-term bounces and relief rallies, ABG looks like it might break out of the top of this consolidation. Once it confirms with a close above R192.52, it should make for a decent risk-reward trade on the long side.

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

This short trade idea could be in trouble is the DXY breaks lower. If you chased it in, or pre-empted your short entry, remember the stop loss is above the upper end of the small range marked in yellow.

Anheuser-Bush Inbev (ANH)

Still no confirmation of the short here, but still on the radar. A stronger rand might help the short trade here actually.

BID Corporations (BID)

No directional idea or bias here, although a tight range (flat) that will likely present a good entry for a breakout trade once it pops. Keep it on the radar.

Capitec (CPI)

CPI looks to be setting up for another leg down. That said, volatility reigns supreme and should we see a strong start to the week, we could see CPI pop out of this small consolidation to the upside. Therefore, the same view must be taken as is the case on BID. No bias or directional ideas, but rather just a good setup that could trade either way, offers and good risk-reward and should be kept on the watchlist.

Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP)

Oh no, everybody hates Dis-Chem now… well, anyway. DCP is holding support in a large range. This could be a good entry for a long trade. Stop below support and target at R35.80.

Glencore (GLN)

GLN is looking like it is going to try break above R102 for the seventh time (maybe this time is the charm?). A weaker DXY and a proper squeeze could see GLN finally shooting for the moon (aka. continuing the uptrend).

MTN (MTN)

MTN might be off the hook to buy TKG, but the chart does not look very pretty. As it stands now, R130 is putting up some stiff resistance and could be used as a stop loss for a short trade to R92.

Naspers (NPN)

Just an update on the NPN trade and a reminder that the good trades usually take some time to work out. It might be wise to trail the stop loss down though.

Traders meetup

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Volatility reigns appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

Well, we’ve not made too many changes to this chart for the better part of this year and we’re not about to make any now. Our target $337.70 remains, and is now firmly in play. The real question is: where to from there?

Nasdaq (QQQ)

As is the case with SPY above, we’ve not moved our QQQ target for a mighty long time either. Just for reference, the support (and target) here is the pre-covid high (as is the case with SPY).

All Country World Index (ACWI)

Another one of the older and unmodified charts from earlier this year. ACWI target zone still in play.

Brent Crude Oil

From a purely technical perspective, the trend is now down. New longs can be initiated if we see a bullish break of the pink downtrend line. Until then, hold onto your butts!

USDZAR

Ladies and gentlemen, we have an upward sloping channel… This might be alarming for some, it might be unbelievable to others, but the market tends to go to where it causes maximum pain before it turns. Honestly, we hope it doesn’t get that bad, but the charts point to where the charts point. What did we say about oil..? Hold onto your butts!

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Again the pre-covid highs are the target / support area (as it has been for some time now).

ABSA Group (ABG)

A little under halfway down from the range top. Let’s see if it can make it all the way to the bottom.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

We’d pointed out APN as a long a few weeks ago. The range we were eyeing has broken to the downside. While we are still bullish this stock with a long-term outlook (investment perspective), in the short-term (trading perspective) if the R130 support goes it could get really messy. The macro environment is filled with fear, and heaps of it was piled on this weekend. If we see proper panic, nothing will be spared in the short-term. Thus, we have a general short bias in the short-term, but look forward to buying good stocks at lower prices if the pawpaw hits the fan.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

Flat top triangle broken to the downside. We’re thinking it can get as low as R580 before finding any real kind of support.

Compagnie Financiere Richmont (CFR)

Don’t forget about this one. Still some time to go before the Head and Shoulders of Doom over here give a trading signal, but keep it on the radar folks.

Capitec (CPI)

The break of that support was nothing short of spectacular! Probably wise to close the shorts here, or at least take 80% off. It can go further still, but take some of your risk off the table and bank some profits baby!

Investec (INL)

Clean break! Now we sit and trail our stops and the market fear and panic around us. The target is a long way down, so we’ll have to be patient. Remember, volatility based stop loss. Don’t let winners turn to losers. That said, enjoy the ride.

Naspers (NPN)

Friday saw a massive bounce in NPN, but it’s still in the green (short trade). It’ll be a wild ride, but that is why we have risk rules.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Credit Suisse = Black Monday? appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

I looks like SPY finally cracked the tertiary trend line and is ready to take its next leg down. That said, we’ve been expecting the next leg down for a few weeks now and so far all our setups have failed. Is this the one? Perhaps it could be, but if you are going to short SPY, best put a stop loss just above the swing high to protect yourself in case we’ve still got it wrong.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Looking at a weekly chart of DXY here to serve as a gentle reminder that the last time DXY was trading at these levels was during the dot com crash.

Gold

Gold took a hard smack last week but is still well within its range. Unless anything significant changes in the macro picture, we’d be buyers of gold sub-$1700.

Brent Crude Oil

The primary trend line on Oil seems to be holding for now. Long trades here would have to stop out if that primary trend line (sub-$90) breaks, but until then an ATRx2 trailing stop loss would do just fine.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Another gentle reminder here to buy protection when you can, not when you need it.

USDZAR

So much for our R15.50 target. It seems that fear has creeped back into the ZAR and we’re headed to weaker territory. We’ve added the weekly chart for reference. If the big bad bear finally wakes up from its nap, we could potentially see a strong move in the ZAR towards the covid-crash highs.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 index (ALSI)

The ALSI cracked lower rather violently on Friday. It looks to have bumped its head into resistance and might finally be starting to leg lower. Again, we could be wrong and the broken clock being right twice a day adage comes to mind… As with SPY, a short trade should have a stop loss at the swing high and an ATRx2 trailing stop should do well to capture as much of the move as possible.

ABSA Group (ABG)

There are not a huge amount of charts out there with good setups at the moment, at least not from our perspective. ABG does seem to have reached the top of its range though and looks like a fairly easy short from here. Again though, keep a stop just above the swing high and trail that stop loss.

Top Securities Broker Awards

For the first time ever Herenya Capital Advisors is competing in the Intellidex Top Securities Brokers Awards. 

Launched in 2010, the Top Securities Brokers survey (formerly Top Stockbrokers) is the Industry’s premier independent assessment of the industry. 

The survey is based on a comprehensive survey of securities brokers as well as their clients, with high emphasis placed on client rankings of their firms across an extensive list of categories. 

Last year 6,599 clients of brokers completed the online survey, with the high number of respondents enhancing the credibility of the findings. 

The online survey to find the top securities brokers in SA is now open, and we would greatly appreciate you taking the time to complete the 2022 online client survey and share your experiences. 

To rank Herenya Capital Advisors click here. 

The survey will take approximately 20 minutes to complete and the deadline is 26 August 2022.

All participants are automatically entered into a lucky draw and stand a chance to Win R10,000, offered by Intellidex. 

In the past year Herenya Capital has grown from strength to strength, not only have we been featured on some of the most revered platforms, but we have also been commended by our peers and our clients for our excellent service and tenacity to stay at the forefront of the finance industry. 

Please let us know if you have any queries or require additional information.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Where’s the bear? appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Not a pretty sight…

In all seriousness though, it has been a difficult year so far and odds are that it is not going to get much easier any time soon. This week we will look at a few ideas, but take them with a pinch of salt because the market is rather wild and unpredictable at the moment.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

We never saw the early week strength we expected last week, but instead had almost one-way traffic lower until Friday. This week we are not willing to make a weekly opening call, but we will say that we still expect that the headline US index trades lower in the coming weeks. Our target currently is the 3400 index level ($340 on the SPY ETF). This level was the all-time high before covid derailed the world in 2020.

MSCI China ETF (MCHI)

We still favour MCHI over SPY at this stage and it seems that we are starting to see a trend reversal here. We saw some good fundamental news coming form the textile manufacturing industry in China over the weekend as well. This strengthens our view that long-term investors should start to allocate capital to eastward facing investments.

Brent Crude Oil

We moved our tertiary trend line just a little lower, although this chart is still ‘make or break’. Recession fears will put some downward pressure on oil, although supply constraints exert force in the other direction. Our base view is that energy in general still has some way to go before it peaks, although a multi-month correction before the trend continues is not outside of possibility. For now we are sitting tight and allowing time and price to lead us.

Gold

Honestly, we can’t really wrap our heads around why gold is not trading higher. We saw a pretty mean hammer formation right on a key support level on Friday… so perhaps this week is the one?

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC is now trading below the previous all-time high and looks set to test the long-term trend line around $15k. Hold onto your hats if you’re already long, and if you’re not, maybe a buy at $15k is not a bad idea.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH will take its lead from BTC, although it is starting to look like the time to buy is approaching. As is the case with BTC above, DO NOT USE LEVERAGE with these crypto’s. You are welcome to start nibbling at them, but it is not yet time to buy big. Much more panic and pain has to come before we can really get involved here.

Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Forgive our cynicism, but war is good business for weapons manufacturers. NOC is making its second attempt at a break out higher. It looks like this time it has legs.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

The pressure is on and our view is bearish. We think that there could still be rather a lot of downside in our market over the coming weeks and months (rest of the year) and have a target around 53000.

Sasol (SOL)

This chart will only get worse if oil does not manager to hold its tertiary trend line. We flagged this trend line break a few weeks ago and sincerely hope that you managed to take action in time.

Steinhoff (SNH)

SNH starting to look a little ‘make or break’ here. Remember that the stop loss for this trade is below the long-term trend line.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

TFG is looking like a great short trade once this R118 support level fails.

Shoprite (SHP)

We didn’t draw it, but you can see the Head and Shoulders, right? R191 might put up a fight (and possibly a bounce), but realistically we could see R170 in the coming weeks.

Truworths (TRU)

It’s not looking good for TRU either. High probability setup with a really tight stop on the short trade here.

ABSA Group (ABG)

No doubt there will be those who see the Head and Shoulders on ABG. We think this stock can trade to R136 in the coming weeks. Decent high probability short setup here.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Independence day! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

So the SPY bounced off the 89 day moving average and has closed the gap it left on the way down. Momentum wise, it has generated a buy signal on the Stochastic, although not yet on the MACD. It’s not shown here, but it was interesting to see that during this selloff institutional positioning did not really change. Basically, nobody panic sold into the selloff… in fact, most people were buyers. Seems that the bull is strong yet! How long before we see new highs?

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Bwaa! IWM is the most boring index on earth right now. As has been the case for many, many weeks now; there is nothing to do here until this range is broken.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Well, the QQQ looks very similar to the SPY. The trend is still up and we’ve seen the dip being bought. “A bull market climbs a wall of worry” they say.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

SOX, the great leader of U.S. tech stocks, is on the verge of breaking higher. This is a rather constructive setup and one that will likely see not only the SOX print new record highs, but likely QQQ and SPY as well. The bull is strong yet!

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX)

DTX is one of the more important indices we keep an eye on as it is a measure of ‘on-the-ground’ economic activity. The better the transport companies do, likely the better the overall consumer economy is doing. We’ve expressed concerns around the breaking of the 200 day moving average on this index in the past. Last week DTX broke its 200 day moving average, and reclaimed it. For now there is no real trade for us here, although we are keeping an eye on the (white) downtrend line as a potential buy signal. We must add though, if DTX loses the 200 day moving average support, we will once again start thinking very hard about defensive plays.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Once again we are talking about the $93.50 level on the DXY. It is interesting to see that institutional fund managers are increasing their long positions of USD. Should we see continued flow into the long USD trade, we can expect the DXY to break higher. The question is then; will we see softer commodities on the back of the stronger USD? We think that the answer to that is yes… driven by a few things. The Evergrande situation in China is likely to soften demand for iron ore, concrete and many other inputs to large scale construction. We also think that the overall impact is that we see the ‘building’ industry cool off somewhat in China. So what came first? The slow down of the construction boom in China, or the strengthening of the Dollar. Or are the two inextricably linked?

USDZAR

Weekly chart of the USDZAR. Some might see an Inverse Head and Shoulders here. It does look like the trend is turning and that a weaker ZAR is on the cards.

Brent Crude Oil

What is not inextricably linked to China is energy. And energy prices are going up! Oil made a new recent high and has its target trained on the $86.71 handle. Hold onto you (Sasol) butts! We’re going up!

Xtrackers Physical Rhodium ETC Fund (XHRO)

Rhodium has been a hot topic for a little while now. Mostly because it has been one way traffic down for the last 5 months. There is a long and winding fundamental story here, but for the traders who are considering picking a bottom, we offer the following guidance. Wait for the downtrend on the weekly chart to break before hitting the buy button. There are emerging signs that we could be near a bottom, but be patient enough to wait for a proper signal. Also, for everyone trading on the Velocity Trader platform; it’s a pleasure for having the XHRO ETF added to the platform for you. *tips hat*

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Our ALSI short last week worked out very well and we closed it very close to the bottom of the move. For now, we see no new setup here. Although we are mostly bullish going into the new week, we’re not being presented with a high probability entry, so we will be patient and wait for another setup.

ABSA Group (ABG)

The good old fashioned buying zone is once again offering a chance to buy while things look dire. Follow the trend, the bull is strong yet!

Anglo American Platinum (AMS)

Our commentary here is much inline with XHRO above. AMS is on the verge of generating a confirmed buy signal and is worth keeping on the radar. Don’t be over hasty though and wait for the most recent downtrend line to be broken.

Capitec (CPI)

The bull is strong yet! CPI looks like it is about to break to new highs.

Sasol (SOL)

Break, retest, go! We’re holding onto SOL on the CFD accounts with a trailing stop loss. Nothing much to do but give it the space and time to keep trending higher. Even from a longer-term perspective, this is at least a R300 stock. The bull is strong yet!

We’re talking to Ghosts!

We will be having a series of chats with The Finance Ghost and Mohammad Nalla during the month of September. Our goal is to educate the listeners and to let people out there know about what we do, and how we do it.

Petri shared a few war stories and answered some more of your questions. Have a listen to the episode below:

Be on the lookout for the final installment of Herenya September coming next week as we handed the mic to Jonathan, a real-deal day trader and part of the Herenya Team.

Want ideas, insights and research?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The bull is strong yet! appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Interestingly we say the U.S. Dollar weaken during the last week. We’ve been eyeing a break out from below the current resistance for some time, although the break out has not come. Should we see another week of Dollar strength, that could translate into strong performances on ‘local’ stocks such as banks and retailers. An interesting week no doubt lies ahead.

We remain cautious of global equity markets in general as we are seeing a number of mixed signals. To be specific, the tech space has been probably the primary driver behind market performance over the last few years and it is here that we are starting to see conflicting signals.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

Daily chart.
Nothing too fancy here right now. SPY has been trading in a small range that could offer a decent risk-reward trade when it breaks. At this stage we are agnostic on which way this might break. Probably a slightly higher probability for a break lower, although we will wait for a trigger of sorts before taking any short-term trades here.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Daily chart.
The IWM is still somewhat of the canary in the coalmine for us. Looking at how it is trading in the range, the fact that it got stuck under the shorter and medium-term moving averages in the middle of the range is something we consider to be bearish. Again, there is no real action for us to take on this index ETF until either one of the range extremes are breached. Momentum is seemingly turing bullish, but there is no high probability entry for us here just yet. So we wait and see.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Daily chart.
This is where things start to get a little confusing. Well, not so much on QQQ. Looking at this chart we note some bearish divergence. If looking at shorter timeframes, we will likely be able to find a valid short setup as well. Market Breadth is still somewhat weak and if eventually that weakness catches up to the mega-cap tech stocks, this could get really ugly really quickly.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Weekly chart.
So this is really were the mixed signals start.

On the left, we have a flat top triangle that has triggered a long trade. There are also signs of bullish momentum and the possibility of a buy signal being generated to support the bullish break from the triangle formation. On the right, we have a rising wedge formation with evidence of bearish divergence. So which chart do we trade? We suppose that given the uncertainty, it would be wise to trade neither of them. It will be interesting to see in a few weeks which one was in fact the correct setup.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Weekly chart.
The $93 level holds again! There is some bearish divergence too. Perhaps over the coming weeks (leading up to Jackson Hole) we see more Dollar weakness? This would play out well for ‘local’ stocks.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still looking very constructive. Interesting to note that the U.S. now buys more oil from Russia than ever before, making Russia the biggest international oil supplier to U.S.. Our view is unchanged. Energy demand is continuing to pick up as the world economy is coming out of lockdown. Supply and demand… as energy demand continues to increase over the next year and supply is not really matching the demand increase… price has only one way to go.

Gold

Weekly chart.
Not much has changed on this chart over the last week. Our view is still somewhat bullish given the ‘inflation is not transitory’ narrative.

USDZAR

We’ve got mixed feelings on the USDZAR as well. When looking at the weekly chart, it appears that we have a decent setup for some longer-term weakness. In the short-term though, should the DXY come off in the coming weeks, we might see a stronger ZAR as a result. In the medium-term though, USDZAR seems to be going through a significant shift of momentum towards weakness. As things are right now, we’d encourage investors to buy USD.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Weekly logarithmic chart.
It might be a little too early to talk, but it looks like after a few fake outs and scary moments, the $35k level held. Onwards and upwards from here?

Ethereum (ETH)

Weekly logarithmic chart.
Looks like that falling wedge formation is playing out. Lots of buying happening over the weekend. Perhaps phase two of the 2021 general crypto moon rally is about to start?

U.S. stock picks

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Weekly chart.
AMD had a huge break out last week. We think that this stock, and other semiconductor and microprocessor manufacturers, could continue to see a decent rally on the back of higher cryptocurrency prices.

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Weekly chart.
AMAT has not broken out just yet, although this setup does look like it wants to break to new highs.

Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)

Weekly chart.
SIMO also put in a break away week and earns it’s spot on our bullish watchlist.

Five Below (FIVE)

Weekly chart.
A rather decent looking long setup on FIVE as well. We’d likely be buyers above $200 with a trend following, trailing stop loss.

Texas Instruments (TXN)

Weekly chart.
Another semiconductor manufacturer, another bullish setup. A break to new highs would trigger a trend following long trade for us.

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)

Weekly chart.
We pointed out GBT as a potential short trade last week. So far so good. Below $26.82 targets $16.59.

Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO)

Weekly chart.
AGIO on the way back to the bottom of the range. Not too much meat left in this trade unfortunately, although aggressive traders could sell below the 89 week moving average with a target price at the bottom of the range.

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Weekly chart.
WFC could be setting up a nice bull flag here, which in turn could lead to a decent break out from below the 200 week moving average. This is a stock to watch.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Daily chart.
All the way to the top of the range again. In truth, this charts looks rather constructive. The highest probability trade here (with the highest possible risk-reward) would be to short it back to the bottom of the range. Your stop loss will have to be right above the highs made on Thursday though. You don’t want to be caught short if this thing breaks out.

ABSA Group (ABG)

Daily chart.
ABG is ticking a lot of boxes for a long trade. A stronger ZAR in the short-term will be a great backwind for this stock (and other banks, financials and retailers in general). Target for the long trade at R150, with a stop loss at R130, makes for a decent 1:2 risk-reward.

Anheuser Busch Inbev (ANH)

Daily chart.
ANH dropping like a stone. We like the idea of buying the R880 support.

Discovery (DSY)

Daily chart.
DSY looks like it is in trouble here. Only a stronger ZAR can save it now (jokes). This chart does look like it wants to go test the R105 level in the coming weeks. Still a greater than 1:2 risk-reward on the table here for the short trade (stop loss above R120, target price at R105).

Shoprite (SHP)

Daily chart.
Retailers have been wonderfully strong of late and SHP is no exception. This looks like it could be a large ascending triangle formation that it building towards a break out. In a strong ZAR environment, retailers might prove to be a good long play.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

Daily chart.
TCP is turning out to be one of those stocks that you always want to buy, but always think that it’s run a little hard and you will buy in a pullback… only for that pullback never to come and you sit on the sidelines wishing you had just bought the stock. From a trend following perspective, it does seem that the opportunity to get on the bus is finally here.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

Daily chart.
No trigger just yet, but TFG is worth having on the watchlist as a potential break out long trade in a strong ZAR environment.

Telkom (TKG)

Daily chart.
TKG offering a nice long entry off the primary trend line. Clear stop loss makes for a good risk-reward trade.

Truworths (TRU)

Daily chart.
TRU also looking like it is going to be a winner in a stronger ZAR environment. Not as clear a setup as TFG, but a volatility based trailing stop loss could be the play here for a small long position.

And that is all we have for this week. As usual, if you would like to know more about trading with us, our very competitive brokerage fees (epsecially on offshore trading) or joining our community, please feel free to contact us and we’ll be in touch.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Mixed signals appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

The charts posted below were all done on Sunday, so they do not include Monday’s trading action.

So, deep breath, clear mind. Let’s look at some trades.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

So much fear and loathing of the selloff during the last week, only to end at an all-time record high. The trend truly is your friend.

Russell 2000 (IWM)

The bias is still bullish here. As was the case last week, there is no trade on this index ETF for us until the range is broken.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

QQQ did not manage to make a new high on Friday, although by the looks of the chart, it will likely make a new high in the week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (IYY)

IYY also made a record high at the close on Friday. It seems that the market is feeling unstoppable at this stage.

Dow Jones Transportation Average (DTX)

DTX did not bounce off the trend line as we anticipated. It did make an inside day candle formation on Friday though. Given the context of strong markets above, our bias here is bullish. Even though the trend line has broken, we think it might be a fake break out. Time will tell.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY put in a decent reversal on Thursday and Friday last week. Perhaps we see a pullback to the $91.50 zone before the bulls take charge again?

USDZAR

The R14.50 level has been rock solid. We’d like to say that we could see a stronger ZAR from here, although given the events of the weekend, we’re not so optimistic.

Gold

Looking at a weekly chart on Gold. Gold has broken it’s weekly downtrend and seems to have successfully tested and bounced off the previous resistance. Dare we say that we are bullish Gold here? Also, inflation is not transitory.

Brent Crude Oil

We look at both the daily and weekly charts here.
On the daily chart Oil is looking rather bullish and likely to keep pushing to make a new high. On the weekly chart though, we see a hanging man candle formation. This could lead to a pullback similar to the one shown in the first green circle on the daily chart. Thus, for the week ahead we have no play on Oil. We do think that weakness is worth buying into though.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Nice buying opportunity on GDX here in our book. Clear stop loss with the potential to catch the start of a medium-term trend here.

Wells Fargo (WFC)

WFC setting up for a nice bullish break out by the looks of it. Depending on your risk tolerance, it may be wise to wait for a confirmed break out before entering a long trade.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)

XLE giving a nice opportunity to get long in the ‘buying zone’. More conservative traders can wait for a confirmed break out from the short-term downtrend.

Want to trade or buy these U.S. index ETFs?

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South African trade ideas

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

APN once again closed above the R168 level, which triggers a long trade with an eye on R185 as a target price. Be mindful though, last time this was a fake break so keep a tight stop loss.

Coronation Fund Managers (CML)

CML setting up really nicely for a push to a new high. The first stop should be gap close, then if it can get above R52, we might be looking at a new high.

Discovery (DSY)

DSY is being a little tricky, although as long as the R120 level holds, we remain bullish. For the range trade to R150, we think DSY offers a great risk-reward.

Truworths (TRU)

This is a technical breakout on TRU… but this also the wild west, so who knows what happens. We are already long here, so we will not be taking another position in this stock.

ABSA Group (ABG)

ABG setup shown a while ago seems to be working out rather well.

Bidvest (BVT)

BVT seems to be setting up for another trend following move, this time aiming above R200.

Gold Fields (GFI)

More ‘hopium’ for the gold bugs. This does look like a decent level to be long from.

MTN (MTN)

What? Someone is in trouble in Nigeria and it’s not MTN? Bullish!
In all seriousness, this looks like a clean trend following break higher.

Nedbank (NED)

No trigger yet, but worth watching this range for a break out.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

TFG looking similar to NED. Again, no trigger just yet, but something worth keeping on the radar.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Focus on the charts appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.