Looking at the current state of the Bitcoin market, one might assume that Bitcoins will soon be a thing of the past. This feeling could be amplified with a look at where the king of cryptocurrencies was less than a year ago, when it reached its all-time high in early October of 2026. Is this the end for the world’s most well-known crypto, or is there more to it? We’re here to shed some light on the matter.

Right: Bitcoin around the time of its two highest peaks. Left: Bitcoin since February.

The Cyclic Nature of Bitcoin

Ever since 2009, when the Bitcoin blockchain was launched, the currency has moved in a pattern of 4 year cycles of starting low, gathering momentum, rising and peaking, before facing a massive correction that sends the coin back to the beginning of its cycle. With last year’s peaks, it’s safe to assume that we are currently at, or returning to, the beginning of the cycle.

Growth Catalyst

But why would Bitcoin gain momentum again? The simple answer is that the Bitcoin mining reward is halved, which makes it harder and harder to create new tokens, driving up the prices of both new and existing Bitcoins in the process, and creating interest in the Bitcoin market in the process.

The Near Future

The South African Reserve Bank has recently made a statement regarding cryptocurrency. In the statement, the bank decried the usage of stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies as a substitute for regular money. With South Africa as one of the world’s leading countries in the cryptospace, such an action by the Reserve Bank should pressure Bitcoin, working as a catalyst to further quicken the drop, which, according to the pattern, should stop after an approximate 80% correction, at which point the halving of the blockchain rewards should kick in and move it to the next stage of the cycle.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors. We have a Discord server, with a Daily Morning Call at 08:30 (Monday – Friday), where our Trading Strategist shares market updates and posts information with the Community. If you are not trading with us yet, what’s stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Bitcoin: In Terminal Decline? appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Petri Redelinghuys, founder of Herenya Capital Advisors, provides his analysis of the software sector and the cryptocurrency market.

Software Companies

With the emergence of A.I. technologies and their ever-increasing prevalence, it’s easy to think that the writing is on the wall for software companies. The market seems to think so, as a cursory glance at most software company stocks shows a clear decline across the board, in favour of microchip manufacturers and A.I. developers. But the reality is that the software sector is still an important pillar of the economy, and the demand for their product has not changed.

We can point to Adobe (ADBE) as a clear case of a company’s share price not matching its earnings and profitability. We see this as a valuable opportunity to invest in undervalued stocks, which is likely to see a resurgence as hype fades and we see stabilisation in the supply chains and the global market, which will inevitably lead to individuals and fund managers re-investing in more reliable stocks that flew under the radar.

Trading Approach

It’s important to have a clear goal in regards to one’s time scope when investing. We mainly operate with the mid and long term in mind. As a result, we value stable stocks and investments that are stable. Our strategy centres around investing in reliable stocks and trimming them down for profit as they grow significantly larger than their allocation of the portfolio. It also helps with not becoming overly attached to one area of the economy, and allows a greater degree of flexibility when a new opportunity appears. To that end, exchange-traded funds -or ETFs- are a valuable tool to both beginner and seasoned traders, as, contrary to individual stocks, they deal with entire sectors of the economy.

Cryptocurrency

We also invest in Ethereum (ETH) and other currencies, in short and calculated bursts. Crypto in general is a volatile and more unpredictable market, and Ethereum is no different. Its value also fluctuates in somewhat predictable cycles that reward investors who buy in weakness, not unlike Bitcoin (BTC). With that in mind, we treat it like a calculated risk, as we believe that ETH is nearing the bottom of its weakness, and is likely to have a dramatic bounce as the global market stabilises and sentiments improve.

It’s important to note that our trade in Crypto is a very technical trade that makes up a very small part of our portfolio, the loss of which we could absorb. Our views and speculations in regards to Ethereum are tightly intertwined with our knowledge and research of Bitcoin, and we will attach a file below that will hopefully shed some light on the matter for those who are interested in researching the topic.

Watch the episode here:

Introductory Paper On Bitcoin And Crypto

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Trade of The Week – 14 April 2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Today, we looked at 14 charts; below are only some of them, but first, let’s have a look at what happened over the weekend. This week is expected to be largely like the last, with all eyes on the situation in the Middle East. Oil is still the star of the show, so to speak, with it gaining 4% over the weekend. Bitcoin has seen continued growth, more on that below, while gold and silver have weakened. As things stand, this is a volatile environment, as most markets have been disrupted due to the ongoing conflict.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has seen continued growth over the last week, and we are now back around the $74,000 level. The strength Bitcoin has found seems to really stand out, especially given the tensions around the world. We seem to have found a bit of a bottom around $65,000 in the short term. If we manage to stay above $72,600, then Bitcoin might have enough momentum to reach $80,000 and maybe more. On the 1-hour version of the chart, we do see what could be a cup and handle, which does support the possibility of reaching around $82,000.

Sasol (SOL)

Given that oil is headline news, we figured it’s time to take a look at how Sasol has been faring. Sasol has gained roughly 32% since the start of the conflict between Iran and the United States of America. This is largely due to the price of oil going up, as major shipping and refineries in the region around the Persian Gulf are halted or even destroyed. We saw a gain of 11.6% on Friday, and though we did see some sellers, we still feel comfortable from the data that we could go back up to R250, which is the level we last had in 2023. The next key level is R220.

Sappi Limited (SAP)

We want to look at Sappi today, mainly because it has been strong over the last couple of days, and we wonder whether this is due to the ZAR’s weakness. If you look at the daily chart and consider the background moves that we have had in the ALSI, Sappi has been finding support around R16. We think if this manages to break anywhere around R17.60 to R18, that we could have legs to go back into R20.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 16/03/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

The markets reflected risk-off caution with the ZAR strengthening while the USD pulls back. Precious metals dipped, with Gold ending relatively flat, Silver down 1.7%, Palladium up 1.6%, and Copper up 1.4%. The VIX rose 5.1% which signals volatility, and Tencent is up marginally by 0.2% which reflects broader China tech resilience. Overall, today should be quiet for the most part with the US market closed for President’s Day.

S&P500 Index

We saw the S&P500 futures show resilience last week, managing to bounce from our lowest support level, 6,810, during Friday’s risk-off sentiment, but failed to retest the 7,000 resistance level. We expect action today to be between 6,880 and 6,930. If we break above 6,930, then we could reach 6,950, but if we see downward movement, then we could retest 6,810.

Aspen Pharamacare (APN)

Aspen Pharmacare will probably be one of the most looked at stocks today, managing to push above R126 on Friday, ahead of earnings, which will be released on the 3rd of March. This spike is likely due to the momentum from vaccine/anaesthetic restocking and nutraceutical growth, and also follows an interim earnings trading statement made last week. We will see if R130 is obtainable once the market opens and if volume sustains. A break below R124 could signal caution going into earnings. This is definitely one to watch today.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin has once again pulled back from last week, where we saw a bit of green on the chart, but momentum did not hold during liquidation cascades. We currently stand at around $68,000 this morning after the weekend’s volatility. Our levels are at 71,600, with 65,000 to the downside and 60,000 being our lowest if we manage to continue the downward trend.

The magic happens in our community!

We’re posting on TradingView, we’re posting on our blog… but the real magic happens in our client community where you can get access to our ideas as they develop. So, open your account and join us and start taking advantage of South Africa’s Top Broker for both Active Traders and Traditional Investors.
If you are not trading with us yet, what is stopping you?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post The Daily Trades 16/02/2026 appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Alrighty, we start with the usual SPY chart. This chart has been giving us some whipsaw of late, but looking at it now it is getting harder and harder to remain bearish. If we completely ignore all the fundamental factors and only look at the chart, we see the probability of a new bull market starting as rather high. This market has made a new higher-high and now two higher-lows. Should the market break below 3750 (or $375 on the SPY ETF – and in doing so make a lower-low) we can comfortably say that the bear is still around and the market is most likely to push a new low beyond the lows of October/November last year. Should the 3750 level hold though and/or we see a move above 4200 (or $420 on the SPY ETF), we can confidently say that a new bull trend has been established. That’s a lot of if’s and maybe’s at this stage, which is indicative of the tumultuous nature of trend changes. Given that right now the market is in a ‘could go any direction’ phase, we are likely not going to make any moves until we have confirmation. That said, we do have two distinct levels that will act as ‘confirmations’. Until one of those levels are breached, we wait and keep evaluating. In the meantime, it’s looking a little bullish.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

The QQQ’s are a bit easier to read at this stage. We’ve drawn in an important horizontal level around the $312 mark. Should QQQ break and hold above this level, it’s time to get long. No doubt it will put up a fight though, and there is some bearish divergence. The market is on shaky ground to be sure, but a bullish break here would have to be bought (in our view at least).

Hang Send Index (HSI)

Maybe we’re being a little too optimistic here with our downtrend line and it being broken… but maybe this is exactly the right time to get long. It’s a rather easy trade here with a stop loss below the swing low and a trailing stop that could ride a long, long while if the larger trend really is turning bullish here. Follow the market, even if it doesn’t make sense.

Brent Crude Oil

We’ve done a weekly chart here, and as is the case with some of the charts above, we’ve removed some of the old annotations and added a few (in this case only one) new ones. Here we’ve highlighted that $70.45 level, which we see as an important horizontal level. It has acted as both resistance and support on a weekly basis over the last two or so years and in our view is currently acting as the last line of defence for the oil bulls. It could be interesting to try get long off this level if it gives another chance, but be warned that if it breaks, it might get messy really fast (which would likely make for an easy $10 to $20 short trade).

Gold

The $2000 level has been holding strong and gold has not managed to get and hold above it. Trends being trends leads us to think that it likely will, given the heightened risk in the overall market. Some money is moving out of the ‘unsafe’ banking sector and into the ‘safety of precious metals’ – and crypto. Can gold break $2000 here? We’re not sure, so we think it’s probably best to sit on your hands until it does.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

$28500 is a key level for BTC in our view. It was support about a year ago and is currently acting as rather strong resistance. That said, we won’t beat around the bush here. Bitcoin came about when banks were collapsing… the current environment is very favourable for Bitcoin once more. This is why it exists. It’s going to be interesting.. and it’s looking a little bullish.

USDZAR

By now you would probably have picked up that we have a slightly more ‘risk on’ outlook. Looking at this USDZAR chart, we can see that the R18 level is key for now. We think that we see some ZAR strength and a move towards R17.58 in the short-term. Our longer-term view and large channel shown on previous posts still looms overhead, but for the next few weeks, we think we see a stronger ZAR.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Squint your eyes just right and you might see the makings of a potential head and shoulders pattern. It’s too early to tell though. Our downside target stands for now, but and overall push from global equities will likely mean that we don’t get to see those downside targets in the next week or so. For now, we’re staying out of the ALSI.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

It may be wise to take some profit here, at least until gold is holding above $2000. There will always be another chance to get in.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

The R36 level is holding. The longer it keeps being tested though, the less confident we are in the long trade. Below R36 targets R32. Above R40 targets R52. Patience and stop losses are going to be important here.

Sun International (SUI)

SUI is looking very good. We pointed out this setup some time ago and it is playing out very well indeed. A trailing stop loss is advised.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

Dare we say that TGA is building a decent base here for a long trade? No setup yet, but keep this stock on your watchlist for a potential long entry.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post It’s looking a little bullish appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Bigger picture (Offshore trade ideas)

S&P 500 (SPY)

We’ve not drawn in the lateral support line here, but the SPY chart shows that the recent short-term bullish trends have broken. Momentum wise, it is starting to wane as well as the stochastic oscillator is about to dip below 50. For now, we think that is is very likely to see SPY move toward $385 as it tests the longer-term trend reversal. So, in essence, we are more bearish that our logo for at least a week or two from here.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Looking at QQQ we see much the same as above with SPY, although here we have added in the lateral support line to show it’s significance. There are two ways to play this, the more risky way would be to already be short as the upward sloping trendline has broken, an the more conservative way is to wait for that yellow support line to break before entering the short. The same applies for SPY above.

Brent Crude Oil

Oil is still trading in the channel we pointed out last week. Until we have a clear break from this channel, we don’t plan to make any changes to our positioning.

Gold

A hit of hopium here for the gold bulls. Friday saw a decent reversal and the stochastic is starting to look like it wants to break higher. Perhaps if we see headline indices (as shown above) break down materially, we will see this gold price bounce and pust for $2000? For now we can’t tell, but keep it on the watchlist. Riskier traders can take a high-probability long trade from here (meaning a great risk-reward setup).

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY needs to hold above 103.70 in order to keep the pressure on emerging market currencies.

USDZAR

Got Dollars? This chart makes us a little sad to be honest. As things are right now, we see now reason for this current trend to change.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Alright, so finally some good news. BTC is looking well on track with its four-year cycle and seems to be making a run for that 126 week moving average. It needs to get and hold above in order to start a new bull run. Remember though, this is a four-year cycle, so being near the beginning of year 3 of the cycle now, the best we can hope for over the next 18 or so months is a move back to the all-time high region. Only near the end of 2024 will it be time to sell again. Those that bought in November last year when we said Buy Bitcoin are up 50% already. Hang on in there guys, we have another year and a bit to go before we can sell again.

Ethereum (ETH)

We don’t have too many comments here, but things are looking a little better for ETH in our view as well.

Moscow Exchange (MOEX)

Weekly chart here on MOEX. Not the most bullish of candles last week, but overall this market is starting to look like it will recover. Worth having some exposure in our view.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

We’ve not shown it here, but hedge funds are starting to load up on the VIX calls. So we will reiterate last weeks call and say again that buying some longer dated VIX calls (3 to 6 months out) is very likely a very good trade now.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Ok ALSI, it’s make or break time buddy. Short-term bullish trends have broken… well, very almost on ALSI. Let’s see how Monday goes.

Naspers (NPN)

Ol’ NPN is still trading in its range. Watch for the breakout of this range. We think it will be lower and we think it will be rather explosive.

Reinet Investments (RNI)

RNI is also in a range. This one looks bullish to us, but we are open to following this trade in whichever direction it decides to go. A bit of a global equities sell off to fuel to ZAR weakness could work out well for ol’ RNI over here.

Shoprite Holdings (SHP)

Our SHP long idea from last week has not worked. Time to get out if you are not out already.

Sanlam Limited (SLM)

Nice little setup here on SLM that give two trade options, depending on which line breaks first. We think it breaks lower.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

It’s not looking good SSW. R32 is calling.

Thungela Resources (TGA)

It’s not looking so good for TGA either to be honest. R180 might be a good level to buy from, but until then, be patient.

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG)

Ouch! Is it over though? Who knows at this point? If the wheels fall off the global equities bus, maybe…

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

Short-term bullish trends have broken on AGL too. It’s not looking good.

Discovery (DSY)

Bullish break on DSY. At least some good news in a rough market.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Short-term bullish trends have broken appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas (bigger picture)

S&P 500 (SPY)

Moment of truth time. SPY is finally testing the down trend line. If it breaks higher here and makes a new high above $430, it would appear that the down trend is over. If the trend line holds and/or SPY fails to make a new high above $430, it would appear that the down trend is still intact. That’s the nice thing about chart-based biases, when the evidence emerges to change your mind, you can change your mind. Right this very moment though, we do not know which way this market will go. So, we wait for next week to unfold and show us the way forward.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again… buy protection when you can, not when you need it. We guided a long VIX call two weeks ago which so far is not working. That said, as shown above, the S&P 500 is pretty much at a pivotal point right now, so the risk-reward for the short trade is about as good as it is going to get, and thus the risk-reward on the long VIX call is similarly at its peak. At least, that’s what we’re thinking.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Here comes support! We looked at DXY two weeks ago and thought that perhaps it would bounce and rally once more. Turns out, DXY is determined to test the key support at 103.70. From there though, we will have to wait and see. Should DXY break below support and head lower, odds are good that the rally in equities will be on. Honestly, looking at the state of the world it is hard for us to see what markets are so optimistic about, but hey… they are forward looking after all and we’re not here to fight them. The week ahead though, is one to take the really high risk-reward trades, of sit on your hands and watch how the pivotal levels play out.

Bitcoin (BTC)

As usual, a weekly, logarithmic chart on BTC. We will think that it is a buy around these levels. Perhaps some more downside on the cards, but the way we see it, we’re close to the low of the four-year cycle here and are happy to buy and hold until Q4 2025.

Brent Crude Oil

Sigh… old oil, why can’t you make up your mind buddy? It’s ‘walking the line’ around the bottom support of the large range and probably a short trade from here. It’s given some whipsaw over the last few weeks though as it breaks below and above the key level. It looks like a break and retest of the bottom range support for now, so speculative shorts here would make for very high risk-reward trades.

USDZAR

Nothing like a good game of ‘presidential musical chairs’ to get the ZAR really going! It seems the Ramaphosa is challenging the Phala Phala report though and that he is, at least trying to not go anywhere. How the market takes that, we don’t know. There aren’t many favourable alternatives in terms of the next president though, but since Ramaphosa is likely to be around for at least another week, it might be seen as good? Honestly, we don’t know. It’s the wild west, trade with caution.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

It looks a little toppish with that candle formation over the last three trading days. Momentum also seems to be waning. The short trade is probably fairly safe here.

Discovery (DSY)

Nice little range here on DSY. We’re thinking it breaks lower. Decent risk-reward here also if you’re aiming for R100.

FirstRand (FSR)

Welp! Thanks to a couch stuffed full of cash, our FSR long idea has stopped out.

Investec (INL)

This trend has gotten a little steep in our books. A break lower here would make a good short trade.

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

What’s this? Is SSW actually holding above the resistance zone? Can it take out R52 and put in a trend change and a proper rally? Just maybe it is! We like the long here, both short-term and long-term. Blue horseshoe loves SSW.

Joining HCA trading

Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Moment of truth appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Offshore trade ideas (bigger picture)

S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY looks on track to test the trendline. A few more days of upside and it’ll finally be at resistance. Where to from there? We can’t tell just yet. Although, as far as trends go, until the recent high at $430 is taken out, this is in a downtrend. So, selling some around the $410 mark with a stop at $430 could be a great risk-reward trade. Let’s see how it goes.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY move also looking to be nearing completion here. Support is at 103 – 104. Perhaps if it bounces off support and resumes its rally, we will see equites resume the downtrend? That said, let’s see if the support zone can hold first.

Gold

Gold seems fairly range bound. It’s not the world’s best chart and in truth, I can’t see a very clear easy setup here. It is starting to look a little overbought, so maybe those who are currently long could look to unload some if it gets closer to $1800. Who knows though? With all the FUD around crypto’s, and the contagion that will no doubt spring from it, we might see some panic buying in Gold once it gets above $1800. Best to stay ‘reactive’ here and not forecast too much I think.

Brent Crude Oil

No real new comments on Oil this week. It’s sticking to the range and still giving a chance to get long in my view.

USDZAR

Our downside target is now hit. Some are calling it lower to R17.00, which is entirely possible if the DXY keep diving for 103. My view here now is that we need to wait for another setup before making any new moves. The brave can probably long some here off the trendline, just keep it tight and don’t bet the farm.

Bitcoin (BTC)

At $10 000, BTC would have pulled back roughly 85% from the high made in late 2021. I’ve explained before in various historic posts how I believe the four-year cycle works. If that theory is correct, now is literally the best time to buy. No, you’re not going to get the bottom tick, yes it might drop through $15 000, hell, it might even go to zero (highly doubt that)… but if trends do what trends do, and the four-year cycle plays out, complete with total fear, panic, disbelief (all things forecast in previous posts, seriously, go look), then we need to be greedy when others are fearful. Buy Bitcoin. For more detail though, the chart below is a weekly time frame on a logarithmic price axis, with a 126-week moving average.

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

Another massive up-day for the ALSI on Friday. Not quite five and a half percent, but a decent three point seven at least. It has now taken out two of the previous highs in a down trend, so the ‘trend change’ alarms are ringing a little. That said, it does look overbought, and the macro risks are not yet gone. I would not be too surprised to see some weakness early next week as the market just cools off a little. In the longer-term though, South Africa is still one of the best Emerging Markets (EM) out there and EM’s are looking a lot more attractive that Developed Markets (DM) at this stage. So maybe the time for bargain hunting on the good ol’ JSE has come?

Anglo American PLC (AGL)

I pointed out AGL a week ago and it has run really very well. “AGL, BHP and GLN will soon be the bells of the ball in our view.” was exactly the line I used in fact. Now, it is time to take some money off the table here (at least if you are a trader – investors can stay put and look to buy more on pullbacks). BHG played along, but GLN did not. GLN does have a nice setup though and we’ll look at that one in a little while.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

I’m not the world’s biggest fan of pharmaceutical companies to be honest, but hey, stock markets don’t really care about my feelings now do they. I’ve pointed out the consolidation (what I think is an accumulation) pattern on APN in recent weeks for long-term investors. Here it is again. Still no breakout for the traders but holding strong and putting up all the early signs of a trend change for the longer-term investors. Keep this on the radar.

Glencore (GLN)

GLN holding the support at R102 rather well. I like this stock for a long-term play as well as a short-term long trade. Stop loss below R100, ATRx2 trailing stop or 3-day low as a moving target. Nice high risk-reward here.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ANH)

After a few rounds of being beaten by ANH, I am back and once again trying to short this stock. This time from an over-bought position in a resistance zone with a stronger ZAR as a backdrop. Let’s see how it goes this time.

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Come find out why we ranked as number one for traditional investors in South Africa. HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

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*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post Buy Bitcoin appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

First – it is an enormous opportunity to get into the stock market, especially if you are a passive saver making monthly contributions to an index ETF or fund of sorts. If you can, double your monthly contributions to equity investments. It may be difficult to work this into already pressured budgets, but over time you will thank yourself for tightening your belt now and buying more and more as the market dives deeper and deeper.

Second – there is no reward without a little pain. The reality here is that if you increase your investment now, you will feel some pain in the short-term as you watch new contributions shrink each month just for you to add more into a shrinking pot. It is not going to feel good. The truth is that you will not be able to perfectly time the bottom, so cutting monthly contributions until you are convinced that things are better will very likely mean you miss the bottom and miss the chance to get great overall market (index based) exposure at a decent average price. Doing the right thing is never easy, and even more so when you are acting in your own best interest. Bite the bullet, act in your own best interest and take the short-term pain. The reward is years away, but it will be worth it.

If you would like for us to help you with a solid investment plan for the next five to ten years, contact us and we’ll gladly help.

An on that note, let’s move onto some shorter-term trade ideas. As mentioned above, it’s not looking good out there are we are seeing nothing but shorts.

Offshore markets

S&P 500 (SPY)

As usual we start with SPY. We’ve been aiming lower for long while now and nothing has changed. Our target remains indicated on the chart as it has been for many months. The question we are asking ourselves now is whether or not the 3370 index level is going to be the bottom, or just a brief support level?

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Looking at QQQ shows a similarly dire picture (as is the theme of this post in truth). We’ve marked out the previous (pre-covid) high, which as is the case above, should serve as both a target and support level for the current equities rout.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

More of the same for the semiconductors. We guess we’ll see how this, and the indices above, behave when they get to their respective pre-covid highs.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

We’ve pointed out before that the Dollar was last this strong during the dotcom crash, so we thought we would show it again for context. It won’t happen in a straight line, but we think that the 120 level on DXY is rather realistic given the circumstances. Make no mistake, this is putting severe pressure on U.S. corporate earnings as well as commodities, and the real damage will become apparent in the next earnings season.

Gold

Talking about commodities coming under pressure, gold seems to have broken its support level. Although we hold some gold exposure in our long-term portfolios, the short-term picture looks pretty bleak. Our initial thought after this break is that we might see $1480..? The thing is, if we see proper panic in markets in the next week or two, people will sell everything. This means that even the ‘safe haven’ assets will be sold off in the panic and mad rush for liquidity. Perhaps we see a similar washout to $1480(ish) as we saw during the onset of the covid panic days, before gold catches a bid and starts behaving like the ‘safety’ it is supposed to be?

Brent Crude Oil

Is this it? Has oil cracked support and is finally going to give in to the negative pressure of contracting global GDP? Or will OPEC+ cut more production and defend $90 with everything they have? Stay tuned for this week’s instalment of Energy Markets Gone Mad! Jest aside, that is actually a serious set of questions.

USDZAR

Weekly chart here just looking at the trend on USDZAR. It’s not looking good folks. Unless you have Dollars, then it’s looking awesome. Are we going to see R20 to the USD within the next six months? Probably.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Over the longer-term we are still bullish on BTC, but we want to reiterate that we would only be buyers closer to the support level, which is currently around $16.5k. The chart looks fairly bearish, so there might even be a chance to get some BTC below the support level. If the world is going to panic, let it panic. Just keep your own head cool and try not get trampled as the masses rush for the lifeboats. As mentioned earlier, this is a massive opportunity to make some very good long-term returns. Be patient and be decisive. But mostly, be patient.

Ethereum (ETH)

Great insights on ETH merge from Geo here (Geo interview podcast). Do we get a chance to load up around $750?

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

It takes a little time, but charts often work out. Our target remains set at 53k. For those that are short this index, an ATRx2 trailing stop loss would be appropriate from here. You need to give it some room to breathe, but also need to make sure that it doesn’t rip against you and take back all the gains. Let’s see how long it takes to get to 53k and how it behaves once there. For now, enjoy the ride.

Investec (INL)

Well, nothing but shorts were promised, so nothing but shorts we’ll show. Nice rounding top here on INL with a scary low target at R41.20. This will be a slow grinder of a trade if it reaches target, so a volatility based tailing stop (like ATRx2) should too well to manage risk here.

Compagnie Financiere Richmont (CFR)

We’re pre-empting a massive head and shoulders formation here, but we’re pretty sure that we’re not the only ones seeing this… right? Would love to hear your comments, let us know what you think on twitter.

British American Tobacco (BTI)

Well ok then. We looked at BTI some time ago and pointed out this flat top triangle. Our thinking was that in a much weaker ZAR environment BTI could break out nicely toward the upside here. But now the market theme is nothing but shorts and BTI had a proper daily close below the trend line. We are tempted to hit the short here, but think we might have to do this trade in half-size.

MTN (MTN)

R91.42 is a long way down, but we can’t see anything holding the stock up to prevent it from testing those levels. At least not right now.

Naspers (NPN)

The support level shown two weeks ago has broken and it looks like the gap-close trade is on. Stop to entry and let it ride for now.

Remgro (REM)

R125 is a key level to watch on REM. A daily close below R125 will trigger a short trade. Some might see a head and shoulders top here… some might see a rounding top (depends just how much you squint your eyes to make sense of it). Either way, we think that a break of the key support will offer a great opportunity to get into a short trade around a level that confirms a medium-term trend change.

Shoprite (SHP)

Not the greatest of clearest setup here, but SHP could come off and test the R192 level again in what looks like it could be a rather large range. If R192 fails to hold as support, we are looking at a massive double top which would target around R130 if it plays out. Patience here. but keep it on the radar.

Sasol (SOL)

Perhaps a bit late to catch the short now so we will not chase. This chart just serves as a case study to show how effective simple trend line and range breaks can be to identify a changing trend (and trades of course).

Sibanye-Stillwater (SSW)

R31.79 coming up by the looks of it. That would probably be a good level to buy at to be honest, but until them we suppose we wait.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

TCP is another great example of a simple trend line being extremely useful. Now though, we see support around R35. Keep a close eye on that support because a break below that would likely target R26.80 and would make for a great short trade.

The Foschini Group (TFG)

Another stock, another key support level coming up. If TFG breaks below R118 on a daily close basis, odds are very good we’ll see R90.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resource

The post Nothing but shorts appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.

Citi Bank: Chair Powell used his about 8-minute Jackson Hole speech to send a more targeted message with less room for dovish (mis)interpretation: interest rates will continue to rise and Fed officials plan to achieve and maintain tighter financial conditions to slow the economy and bring down too-high inflation. Meanwhile, recent data suggest a re-acceleration of economic activity and a labor market that remains historically tight. We expect a 75bp rate hike in September following a strong 305k August jobs report next week and 0.2-0.4%MoM core inflation weighed down by used cars, but showing persistently strong details, released September 13.

Barclays: As expected, Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole was hawkish, highlighting the risks of declaring a premature victory over inflation, and signalling a data-dependent decision between 50 and 75bp in September. Meanwhile, data suggest resilient US activity, reinforcing the Fed’s message that its job is not done.

TD Securities: In our view, there can be no doubt after Powell’s remarks that the Fed will continue to tighten policy over the coming months. We continue to look for the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes in September to 50bp, however, a larger 75bp increase is on the table and will hinge on upcoming economic data.

Clearly the ‘Fed pivot’ that the market was hoping for, is a little less likely than what everyone had hoped and it seems that we are going to see higher interest rates for longer. So buckle up!
WARNING: Bear porn (reeaaaly bad looking charts) below.

Offshore trade ideas

S&P 500 (SPY)

We’ve not changed the drawings on this chart for a good while now and want to just point out that the 3370 index level ($337 for SPY ETF) is the pre-covid high. So all this fear and loathing aside, a pullback to that previous high seems fairly logical as markets begin to unwind the massive amount of QE that ‘saved the world from covid’. The real question is: does it go deeper?

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Not too much to add in terms of comments here, but we’ve also highlighted the pre-covid high (white line). Lot’s of downside to go before we test ‘old resistance’.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Did you buy protection when you could? Because you need it now.

Brent Crude Oil

The primary trend line seems to be holding well and the global energy crisis just keeps getting worse. We are of the view that OPEC will cut production soon as well, to ‘bring balance’ to the paper market ‘to reflect reality’. Seatbelts on. We’re going flying soon!

Bitcoin (BTC)

We’ve not mentioned good ol BTC for a long while now, but our view has not changed at all. Our call was an 80% to 90% ‘pullback’ during 2022 and 2023… wen we are almost there. We do also still stand by our ‘buy the primary trend line around or sub $15k’ call as well. Will BTC lead the risk assets lower?

South African trade ideas

JSE Top 40 Index (ALSI)

After what started off a great day on Friday, the ALSI turned solidly red to end the week on the back foot. Thereafter SPY (and pretty much everything else) fell to pieces. I don’t mean to be bearish but, I just dropped something steamy in the woods. As is the case with the equity index charts above, pre-covid highs are market (this time in green) and it’s looking very much like a target if you ask me.

Aspen Pharmacare (APN)

Results due early this week and there is no more tailwind from vaccines. In a difficult market, disappointing earnings could really hurt. Be on ‘short watch’ on this one.

Blue Label Telecoms (BLU)

Gravity is starting to feel stronger and stronger here. If the market goes into solid ‘panic’ mode, BLU could drop hard and fast. It’s a fairly illiquid small cap though, so be careful if you get involved here and trade smaller than you usually would.

Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR)

Nice little range to trade on the daily chart here. Obviously we are bearish heading into the new week, but we’re open to taking this long if it breaks out of this range to the upside. That said, we’d also short it if it goes the other way. In other words, we think this is a high probability setup to trade in either direction, only one the breakout is confirmed with a daily close outside of the range.

Joining HCA trading

HCA trading offers a number of different trading accounts to suit different types of traders. Our offshore trading accounts allow traders to buy shares, ETFs, CFDs and even fractional shares in the United States for only $2 a trade. Locally, we offer shares, ETFs and CFDs at good rates with robust and reliable trading platforms. All our trading, including CFDs, is done on a Direct Market Access basis and thus our clients are able to interact directly with the real equity market and not have to worry about excessive counterparty or liquidity risk. Our prime broker locally is a big four bank and offshore we make use of one of the largest non-bank prime brokers in the world.

Local stockbroking rates

Offshore stockbroking rates

Subscribe for post updates

If you enjoy reading our blog and would like to get email updates each time we post, please subscribe below.

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

The post More like Jackson pit of despair appeared first on Herenya Capital Advisors.