USDZAR

Weekly game plan 26 April 2020

We are choosing to ignore the noise and focus on the charts so that we don’t get too swept up in the confusion and irrationality of the market. We do realise though that the economic fallout caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will very likely linger for some time, especially in South Africa. Exactly how this all turns out though, we have no idea. For now, we remain focused on short-term opportunities.

Weekly game plan 5 April 2020

It feels as if we are on the edge of battle. The air is still and so thick with tension that it is hard to breathe in. Nonetheless, the market goes on. In fact, it is starting to offer some interesting opportunities to those who are patient. We look at the S&P500, USDZAR, Clicks, Shoprite, Sibanye and Anglo American.

Weekly game plan 22 March 2020

First and foremost, we want to encourage everyone reading this to take social distancing seriously. As for trading; for now we are being very, very careful. Most of last week we hardly traded any swing-CFD positions and we expect that it will be the same in the coming week. We will not entirely sit out the week, but we will be very selective with our trades. Risk management is absolute.

Weekly game plan 15 March 2020

We’re not sure where to start. We have ever seen anything like what has been happening over the last three weeks before. These truly are extraordinary times.The Fear & Greed Index hit 1 last week, the CBOE Volatility Index hit highs last seen in 1987 and 2008 with the highest print at 77.6. This was real, unfiltered panic. The question now is; is it over?

Weekly game plan 8 March 2020

The last few weeks have been some of the most extreme times in recent market history, at least from our perspective. We’ve seen a pretty extreme sell off, largely driven by fears around the coronavirus. What is of even more concern to us is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 50 bps in an emergency rate cut. Historically, when the FED responds this drastically it is usually a sure sign that something big is happening.

Weekly game plan 1 March 2020

We also saw that Chinese PMI numbers came in the lowest on record. In other words, lower manufacturing and production activity in China than even in the depths of the 2008/9 financial crisis. Lower than ever recorded. Considering that China now makes up almost 20% of the global economy and accounts for two-thirds of global growth, this record low PMI reading is truly concerning. The real question now is, when do factories come back online?

Weekly game plan 9 February 2020

Again, it’s hard to form a strong opinion on what is most likely to be the overall theme for the week ahead. The coronavirus is a serious issue and is impacting global markets and sentiment. The situation is confusing and scary. This is forcing money back into the the U.S. in a search for safety.

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