As usual on the International Outlook blog, we focus only technical analysis. This week we mostly have some trading setups for bulls, although there is at least one short in the mix.
Fresh new stimulus cheques in mail and record high options trading volumes. The market is a very confusing place right now to be honest. Well, maybe not actually. It’s fairly obvious that stimulus money is finding its way to extremely speculative trading instruments (which includes Bitcoin) and that the greed ruling markets at the moment is firmly cemented in place. Even with all this additional money in the system diluting its value, the mighty Dollar is fighting back and strengthening.
Keeping things simple and to the point, here are a few of our U.S. trade ideas. Please note that we post the majority of our ideas and research in our client community. These U.S. trade ideas, among others, were posted earlier today for our clients before sharing them here.
Very often it’s better to not listen to the news, or the hype of all the mad things happening in the world around us. Most of the time, it’s better to just sit down and focus on the things that we can measure. So to a large extend we try to do that this week, although we must admit the the blue wave in the U.S. is probably the primary driver behind the strength we saw last week. It’s very likely going to be the source of a whole lot more strength in the week ahead.
Markets open for trading on Monday and our thinking is that the major theme for the week ahead is going to be stimulus, gold and Bitcoin.
There are a lot of different cryptocurrencies out there, although how can you tell which cryptocurrency to buy in 2021? We’ve made a lot of commentary around the four year halving cycle and how it drives the Bitcoin price. Here is the first article we wrote for Finweek on the topic. Perhaps it would be …
The week that lies ahead though is usually the ‘Santa rally’ week, so perhaps our caution and maybe even slight bearishness might again be off the mark. Nonetheless there are some good trading setups out there. Furthermore, we thought that this week we would share our 2021 roadmap for Bitcoin. Next year, we think, is going to be wild!
2020 was wild. In fact, it was a good lesson in accepting the true unpredictability of not only markets, but the world itself. It also further cemented one cardinal truth… you can’t fight the Fed. Especially when good ol Jerome has a Santa hat on and is shouting “Brrrrrr! Christmas is coming!”.
It’s been a while since we’ve put out some US trade ideas. Don’t chase them and make sure you stick to the stop losses.
Well, technically the Santa rally is only really the period between Christmas and New Years, although traders have been ‘front running’ this seasonality a little over the last few years. Furthermore, from what we’ve seen on the newswires over the weekend, it seems that another round US Fed stimulus is almost certainly going to be finalised before US markets open on Monday. Nothing like a freshly minted $900 billion to get markets into the festive mood.
There are still a few weeks to go before Christmas, but hopes of a Santa Rally are starting to take root. For now, most of our watch-list still appears bullish, although there are some warning signs. We could be seeing some early signs of fading momentum on the major indices, although it might still be too soon to tell.