Jackson Hole week

All eyes are on Jerome Powell and the Jackson Hole symposium this week. Jerome Powell is expected to talk on the 26th of August and the market is waiting to hear when we can expect tapering. Although tapering the does not mean a sudden and abrupt end to QE, the market certainly will pretend that it does up until the very minute that it actually happens. We think it is almost inevitable now that we see some tapering by the end of the year. This does not mean that we see interest rate hikes, or a complete end to bond/asset purchases by the FED. It does mean though that the rate at which they are providing liquidity to the market will slow down. This could cause a bit of a speed wobble and some risk-off sentiment.

Offshore trade ideas
Bitcoin (BTC)

Are we all ready for the internet to lose its mind again? Because when BTC cracks that $65k level, things are going to get pretty wild.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH is also just a scratch away from its previous high. We could see some end-of-year madness on these coins.


The cheeto-chip 200 day moving average from last week was not able to keep the price action out. No surprises. Now we look at a weekly chart for some context of what is possible if this truly is a trend change scenario, spurred on my some global risk-off sentiment.

Brent Crude Oil

Finally made it to the trend line and buy zone… Maybe worth hanging around to see how much further they will crunch it in the short-term. Needs to put in a base here though, else we might be buying it at $60 again soon. Overall the outlook for oil is still very bullish over the medium and longer-term. Fresh rounds of lockdowns and the resulting lower transportation and energy demand is a bit of an anchor at the moment. It won’t last forever though and accumulation around a longer-term moving average is tempting.


That weekly hammer is looking fairly Thor-like. Let’s see how the week goes. Jackson Hole could get some proper fear back in the market and gold could catch a bid. Not much to do until Jerome Powell’s speech though.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Finally broke $93. Stronger USD, weaker everything else?

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Strong reversal for small caps from the range bottom… is this time different, or do we bounce to the top of the range from here?

South African trade ideas
Investec (INL + INP)

Given the week we’ve just had, with the ZAR and the ALSI both getting hammered, it is really impressive to see these hold up so well. Long the strong they say.

Mondi PLC (MNP)

Decent break out here on MNP. This time though, the weaker ZAR works in its favour.

Transaction Capital (TCP)

Another stock that seems to not care at all about what it going on around it. TCP is looking great for trend followers.

Want more ideas?

*Please note that these trade ideas form part of a larger weekly plan and the value of financial products can increase as well as decrease over time, depending on the value of the underlying securities and market conditions. The risk of loss arising from trading in Contracts for Difference can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such investments are suitable for you in the light of your circumstances and financial resources.

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Markets change all the time. New fundamental drivers emerge, technical setups mature or fail and our trading plan must adjust in order to keep up with the ever changing environment. Every week we highlight some of the trade ideas that are generated within our client community so that you can stay on top of what we're looking out for and planning to trade at the beginning of each week. 

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